The Perfect Draft 2.0 (a.k.a., What Could Have Been)

So, uh, how’s that Chris Johnson pick working out for you?

Still think Peyton Hillis was a steal in the third round?

Did you pick the wrong year to load up on Colts?

Yes, dear reader, it’s time for our semi-annual exercise in self-flagellation, when we reflect back two short months on what could have been had we made all the right moves during our preseason draft. Step right up for The Perfect Draft 2.0: Midseason Review.

As always, we start with a few key assumptions. First, we’re in a 10-team league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker and one defense/special teams. Second, we are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a zig-zag format, meaning Adrian Peterson was not available to us in the first round. Third, we’re selecting players based on their average draft position in multiple mock draft sites as of the end of August. And finally, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2011 Fantasy Draft, we should have selected…

Round 1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles. If Shady’s superiority wasn’t clear before Sunday night’s beat-down of the Cowboys, it is now. McCoy has scored at least once in every game, and trails only Peterson (by a smidge) as the top back in Fantasyland. Yet Peterson has played an extra game. I can’t argue with picking Aaron Rodgers, either.

Round 2. Matt Forte, RB, Bears. Tough call here. Calvin Johnson is probably long gone. Tom Brady and Drew Brees are hard to overlook, as are Frank Gore and Greg Jennings. Forte gets the nod for his consistency and his impressive contributions as a receiver.

Round 3. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers. Mr. Big Play hasn’t had an off game yet, and he’s reached the end zone in five out of eight weeks.

Round 4. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots. We passed on Brady, but his most dangerous receiver is a nice consolation prize.

Round 5. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills. We could wait until the sixth round to grab him, but why tempt fate? Jackson has been an absolute beast. We now boast three of the top five fantasy backs.

Round 6. Matt Stafford, QB, Lions. Again, we’re pulling the trigger early, but drafting with 20/20 hindsight gives us that luxury. Stafford has posted 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions while emerging as an elite fantasy passer.

Round 7. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers. Most owners held their noses when drafting Smith, a frequent malcontent who seemed light years removed from his glory days. Little did we know a rookie would lead him to his fountain of youth.

Round 8. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints. Though most of us expected Graham to climb the tight end rankings this season, few thought he’d dominate them like he has. As with Brady, we let Drew Brees slide by; but his favorite target is a good proxy.

Round 9. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals. We knew Green had the pedigree to be special. But teamed with a rookie quarterback in a lackluster offense, how much could we expect from this rookie wideout? Apparently, instant elite status.

Round 10. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots. Another second-year sensation gives us the top pair of tight ends in the business.

Round 11. Ravens defense/special teams. Several units – including the young-and-hungry Lions and 49ers – also offer great value. But Ray Lewis & Company are still bringing the heat in virtually every significant category.

Round 12. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers. He’d have a hard time starting on this roster, but Rodgers’ second-favorite receiver is clearly worthy of a Perfect Draft invitation.

Round 13. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints. Reggie who? Sproles has stepped into the multi-purpose role the Saints designed for Bush and showed him how it’s done.

Round 14. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys. As long as we’re playing with house money, let’s stash this rookie on our bench for his potential late-season run.

Round 15. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. If you were prescient enough to draft Newton, and gutsy enough to start him from Week 1, you are a true fantasy genius. Remarkably, the rookie taken by 2010’s most dreadful NFL team trails only Rodgers among fantasy quarterbacks. It helps that he is also his team’s best running back.

Round 16. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants. Cruz has performed as well as Hakeem Nicks while relegating Mario Manningham to fantasy irrelevance.

Round 17. John Kasay, K, Saints. As usual, several kickers offered excellent final-round value. An eleventh-hour replacement for the injured Garrett Hartley, Kasay has prospered in his mop-up role for the Saints’ prolific offense.

So, how perfect was your draft?

One consolation: If recent history holds, roughly half of these players will not be on our final Perfect Draft roster at season’s end. Hope abounds!

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.
Catch ‘em while you can

Javon Ringer, RB, Titans. If you had never played fantasy football before 2011, you’d have already dropped Chris Johnson in favor of his backup. Ringer is not just a promising handcuff; he could actually supplant the incredible, shrinking Johnson as the starter if he continues to out-perform him.


Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers. Still available in more than half of all leagues, the second-year wideout was targeted a whopping 15 times Sunday. Brown also scored his first career touchdown. His stock should continue to rise even when the aging Hines Ward returns from his ankle injury.

Brent Celek, TE, Eagles. After getting off to an uncharacteristically slow start this season, Celek has scored in back-to-back games. He can help teams with bye-week and injury issues at the tight end position.

Don’t be fooled

Kevin Faulk, RB, Patriots. As much as the Patriots struggled to move the ball Sunday, it’s hard to say whether Faulk’s prominent role in the offense was simply game-plan driven or a sign of things to come. But seriously, the guy is in his 13th season. How much tread could he possibly have left?

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks. Being the second-best wideout on the Seahawks is kind of like being the second-best singer in the Jackson 5. Who cares? Predicting when Baldwin – or any Seattle receiver, for that matter – will show up is a fool’s game. Don’t waste your time playing.

Perfect Draft: Updated

I sent the following, updated column out today to my newspaper clients who publish me on Fridays. Now that Chris Johnson has ended his holdout, it's highly unlikely he'd be available at the fifth pick. I've adjusted accordingly, including his handcuff.

The Perfect Draft: Let the domination begin

In a perfect fantasy world, my starting lineup this season would feature Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Greg Jennings and Antonio Gates. That would be the same perfect world in which my teenagers admit I’m always right, Mila Kunis stalks me and snow would start falling in Dallas today.

Alas, since our fellow owners are unlikely to cede the entire first round to us, we’ll simply have to work smarter to assemble the most dominant team in our league. Our challenge, therefore, is to secure the best value in each round, methodically building a roster that will soar from Week 1, withstand an injury to one or two key players, and peak during the fantasy playoffs.

With that lofty goal in mind, I’ve analyzed the average draft position (ADP) of each player from multiple fantasy sites to determine the best pick in each round – resulting in my oft-imitated, always-controversial, yet magically delicious Perfect Draft.

As always, we start with a few key assumptions. First, we’re in a 10-team non-keeper league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and one tight end, kicker and team defense. Second, we are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a snake format, meaning we won’t have a shot at Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson. Third, since all drafts play out differently, we’ll need a little luck along the way. Finally, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2011 Perfect Draft, we select…

Round 1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles. Until yesterday, Chris Johnson was slipping to the middle of this round due to worries over his holdout. Now that he’s a very wealthy man, he’ll surely be gone before the fifth pick. McCoy is an excellent consolation prize, especially in point-per-reception leagues. Though his QB has an irritating habit of poaching his touchdown runs, McCoy is a dual-threat scoring machine that can anchor any fantasy team.

Round 2. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. For years, Jackson’s production has been limited by the sorry offense surrounding him. But that’s changing. Sure, I hate missing out on Jennings or Hakeem Nicks; but this backfield will pack a wallop.

Round 3. Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers. It’s nearly impossible to win a fantasy title without an elite quarterback, and Rivers could vie for top honors this season. It’s remarkable to me that he consistently falls into the mid- to late-third round.

Round 4. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs. Bowe gets the nod over Mike Williams simply due to his longer track record. He’s not my ideal WR1, but another year like 2010 would change all that. If Antonio Gates slips this far, I’m all over him.

Round 5. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints. Yes, I’m taking my third RB before my second WR. The talent pool at tailback drops off significantly after this round, while second-tier wideouts remain plentiful. Ingram will be a scoring machine in the Saints’ offense.

Round 6. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens. With Lee Evans keeping opposing defenses honest, Boldin has a good chance to rebound from his disappointing inaugural season in Baltimore.

Round 7. Austin Collie, WR, Colts. Though I’m getting nervous about Peyton Manning’s timetable, I’m still convinced that Collie will be his most potent weapon this season. The wideout is an injury risk, but the reward is elite production.

Round 8. Owen Daniels, TE, Texans. I’d love to take Josh Freeman here, but tight end is a higher priority. Daniels is Matt Schaub’s favorite security blanket, and he should return to elite form if he can just stay healthy. Thanks to his Week 11 bye, we can pickup another TE off waivers later.

Round 9. Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets. My preseason pick for “Comeback Player of the Year” could quickly become Mark Sanchez’s most reliable red zone target.

Round 10. Eagles, D/ST. I’m buying the “Dream Team” hype. An already-stout defense added top-line talent up-front and in the secondary, which should lead to an abundance of sacks and turnovers. We’ll also cash in on DeSean Jackson’s special teams heroics.

Round 11. Lance Moore, WR, Saints. He could rival Marques Colston (knee) as the lead receiver in this pass-happy offense. Moore’s preseason groin injury should be fully healed by Week 1.

Round 12. Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders. I know I’m sounding like a broken record, but Ford is the only receiver worth owning in Oakland. He is an explosive playmaker who also contributes in the return game. If only he had a better quarterback.

Round 13. Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets. Kyle Orton represents outstanding value here, but he shares a bye week with Rivers. The Jets face the Dolphins at home on Monday night in Week 6; so we’ll take our chances with Sanchez and pray that Rivers stays upright all season.

Round 14. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars. Since Maurice Jones-Drew is on my personal do-not-draft list, I’m grabbing Jennings before MJD’s owner can. Call it an educated guess, or just a hunch, that Jones-Drew’s knee problems finally catch up to him this season. Jennings is waiting for his opportunity to soar. [UPDATE 9/3/11: Jennings has been placed on IR and is out for the season. Oops.]

Round 15. Ben Tate, RB, Texans. Arian Foster’s strained hamstring may be serious enough to sideline him for a game or two. If that happens, Tate is an intriguing pick. If nothing else, it will drive Foster’s owner crazy that you scooped up his handcuff.

Round 16. Arrelious Benn, WR, Buccaneers. Every draft needs a flier, and Benn fits perfectly in that role. He’ll line up opposite 2010 rookie sensation Mike Williams, and could join him as a consistent fantasy performer thanks to Josh Freeman’s rapid development.

Round 17. Alex Henery, K, Eagles. There will be plenty of good options here, including whomever wins the Cowboys’ and Jets’ jobs. But I like the rookie’s chances of picking up where David Akers left off.

There you have it: A team with firepower at every position, bench depth with substantial upside, and no bye-week dilemmas.

Now, go forth and make your draft perfect.

The Perfect Draft: Let the domination begin

In a perfect fantasy world, my starting lineup this season would feature Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Greg Jennings and Antonio Gates. That would be the same perfect world in which my teenagers admit I’m always right, Mila Kunis stalks me and snow would start falling in Dallas today.

Alas, since our fellow owners are unlikely to cede the entire first round to us, we’ll simply have to work smarter to assemble the most dominant team in our league. Our challenge, therefore, is to secure the best value in each round, methodically building a roster that will soar from Week 1, withstand an injury to one or two key players, and peak during the fantasy playoffs.

With that lofty goal in mind, I’ve analyzed the average draft position (ADP) of each player from multiple fantasy sites to determine the best pick in each round – resulting in my oft-imitated, always-controversial, yet magically delicious Perfect Draft.

As always, we start with a few key assumptions. First, we’re in a 10-team non-keeper league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and one tight end, kicker and team defense. Second, we are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a snake format, meaning we won’t have a shot at Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster. Third, since all drafts play out differently, we’ll need a little luck along the way. Finally, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2011 Perfect Draft, we select…

Round 1. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans. Worries about his holdout have pushed Johnson’s ADP into the middle of the first round. Frankly, if you can get him here, you can’t pass him up. Johnson could return at a moment’s notice; but even if you have to suffer a Week 1 “bye,” he’s worth it. In point-per-reception leagues, I’m thrilled with LeSean McCoy here, too.

Round 2. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. For years, Jackson’s production has been limited by the sorry offense surrounding him. But that’s changing. Sure, I hate missing out on Jennings or Hakeem Nicks; but this backfield will pack a wallop.

Round 3. Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers. It’s nearly impossible to win a fantasy title without an elite quarterback, and Rivers could vie for top honors this season. It’s remarkable to me that he consistently falls into the mid- to late-third round.

Round 4. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs. Bowe gets the nod over Mike Williams simply due to his longer track record. He’s not my ideal WR1, but another year like 2010 would change all that.

Round 5. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints. Yes, I’m taking my third RB before my second WR. The talent pool at tailback drops off significantly after this round, while second-tier wideouts remain plentiful. Ingram will be a scoring machine in the Saints’ offense.

Round 6. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens. With Lee Evans keeping opposing defenses honest, Boldin has a good chance to rebound from his disappointing inaugural season in Baltimore.

Round 7. Austin Collie, WR, Colts. Though I’m getting nervous about Peyton Manning’s timetable, I’m still convinced that Collie will be his most potent weapon this season. The wideout is an injury risk, but the reward is elite production.

Round 8. Owen Daniels, TE, Texans. I’d love to take Josh Freeman here, but tight end is a higher priority. Daniels is Matt Schaub’s favorite security blanket, and he should return to elite form if he can just stay healthy. Thanks to his Week 11 bye, we can pickup another TE off waivers later.

Round 9. Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets. My preseason pick for “Comeback Player of the Year” could quickly become Mark Sanchez’s most reliable red zone target.

Round 10. Eagles, D/ST. I’m buying the “Dream Team” hype. An already-stout defense added top-line talent up-front and in the secondary, which should lead to an abundance of sacks and turnovers. We’ll also cash in on DeSean Jackson’s special teams heroics.

Round 11. Lance Moore, WR, Saints. He could rival Marques Colston (knee) as the lead receiver in this pass-happy offense. Moore’s preseason groin injury should be fully healed by Week 1.

Round 12. Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders. I know I’m sounding like a broken record, but Ford is the only receiver worth owning in Oakland. He is an explosive playmaker who also contributes in the return game. If only he had a better quarterback.

Round 13. Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets. Kyle Orton represents outstanding value here, but he shares a bye week with Rivers. The Jets face the Dolphins at home on Monday night in Week 6; so we’ll take our chances with Sanchez and pray that Rivers stays upright all season.

Round 14. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars. Since Maurice Jones-Drew is on my personal do-not-draft list, I’m grabbing Jennings before MJD’s owner can. Call it an educated guess, or just a hunch, that Jones-Drew’s knee problems finally catch up to him this season. Jennings is waiting for his opportunity to soar.

Round 15. Javon Ringer, RB, Titans. Since I can’t be certain my first-round pick will suit up in Week 1, I’m hedging my bets with his top understudy. Unfortunately, a hip pointer leaves Ringer’s availability in doubt as well. Rookie Jamie Harper is next in line.

Round 16. Arrelious Benn, WR, Buccaneers. Every draft needs a flier, and Benn fits perfectly in that role. He’ll line up opposite 2010 rookie sensation Mike Williams, and could join him as a consistent fantasy performer thanks to Josh Freeman’s rapid development.

Round 17. Alex Henery, K, Eagles. There will be plenty of good options here, including whomever wins the Cowboys’ and Jets’ jobs. But I like the rookie’s chances of picking up where David Akers left off.

There you have it: A team with firepower at every position, bench depth with substantial upside, and no bye-week dilemmas.

Now, go forth and make your draft perfect.

NOTE: My third round of positional rankings were posted today at http://www.scribd.com/laddbiro