The Perfect Draft 2.0 (a.k.a., What Could Have Been)

So, uh, how’s that Chris Johnson pick working out for you?

Still think Peyton Hillis was a steal in the third round?

Did you pick the wrong year to load up on Colts?

Yes, dear reader, it’s time for our semi-annual exercise in self-flagellation, when we reflect back two short months on what could have been had we made all the right moves during our preseason draft. Step right up for The Perfect Draft 2.0: Midseason Review.

As always, we start with a few key assumptions. First, we’re in a 10-team league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker and one defense/special teams. Second, we are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a zig-zag format, meaning Adrian Peterson was not available to us in the first round. Third, we’re selecting players based on their average draft position in multiple mock draft sites as of the end of August. And finally, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2011 Fantasy Draft, we should have selected…

Round 1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles. If Shady’s superiority wasn’t clear before Sunday night’s beat-down of the Cowboys, it is now. McCoy has scored at least once in every game, and trails only Peterson (by a smidge) as the top back in Fantasyland. Yet Peterson has played an extra game. I can’t argue with picking Aaron Rodgers, either.

Round 2. Matt Forte, RB, Bears. Tough call here. Calvin Johnson is probably long gone. Tom Brady and Drew Brees are hard to overlook, as are Frank Gore and Greg Jennings. Forte gets the nod for his consistency and his impressive contributions as a receiver.

Round 3. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers. Mr. Big Play hasn’t had an off game yet, and he’s reached the end zone in five out of eight weeks.

Round 4. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots. We passed on Brady, but his most dangerous receiver is a nice consolation prize.

Round 5. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills. We could wait until the sixth round to grab him, but why tempt fate? Jackson has been an absolute beast. We now boast three of the top five fantasy backs.

Round 6. Matt Stafford, QB, Lions. Again, we’re pulling the trigger early, but drafting with 20/20 hindsight gives us that luxury. Stafford has posted 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions while emerging as an elite fantasy passer.

Round 7. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers. Most owners held their noses when drafting Smith, a frequent malcontent who seemed light years removed from his glory days. Little did we know a rookie would lead him to his fountain of youth.

Round 8. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints. Though most of us expected Graham to climb the tight end rankings this season, few thought he’d dominate them like he has. As with Brady, we let Drew Brees slide by; but his favorite target is a good proxy.

Round 9. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals. We knew Green had the pedigree to be special. But teamed with a rookie quarterback in a lackluster offense, how much could we expect from this rookie wideout? Apparently, instant elite status.

Round 10. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots. Another second-year sensation gives us the top pair of tight ends in the business.

Round 11. Ravens defense/special teams. Several units – including the young-and-hungry Lions and 49ers – also offer great value. But Ray Lewis & Company are still bringing the heat in virtually every significant category.

Round 12. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers. He’d have a hard time starting on this roster, but Rodgers’ second-favorite receiver is clearly worthy of a Perfect Draft invitation.

Round 13. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints. Reggie who? Sproles has stepped into the multi-purpose role the Saints designed for Bush and showed him how it’s done.

Round 14. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys. As long as we’re playing with house money, let’s stash this rookie on our bench for his potential late-season run.

Round 15. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. If you were prescient enough to draft Newton, and gutsy enough to start him from Week 1, you are a true fantasy genius. Remarkably, the rookie taken by 2010’s most dreadful NFL team trails only Rodgers among fantasy quarterbacks. It helps that he is also his team’s best running back.

Round 16. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants. Cruz has performed as well as Hakeem Nicks while relegating Mario Manningham to fantasy irrelevance.

Round 17. John Kasay, K, Saints. As usual, several kickers offered excellent final-round value. An eleventh-hour replacement for the injured Garrett Hartley, Kasay has prospered in his mop-up role for the Saints’ prolific offense.

So, how perfect was your draft?

One consolation: If recent history holds, roughly half of these players will not be on our final Perfect Draft roster at season’s end. Hope abounds!

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.
Catch ‘em while you can

Javon Ringer, RB, Titans. If you had never played fantasy football before 2011, you’d have already dropped Chris Johnson in favor of his backup. Ringer is not just a promising handcuff; he could actually supplant the incredible, shrinking Johnson as the starter if he continues to out-perform him.


Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers. Still available in more than half of all leagues, the second-year wideout was targeted a whopping 15 times Sunday. Brown also scored his first career touchdown. His stock should continue to rise even when the aging Hines Ward returns from his ankle injury.

Brent Celek, TE, Eagles. After getting off to an uncharacteristically slow start this season, Celek has scored in back-to-back games. He can help teams with bye-week and injury issues at the tight end position.

Don’t be fooled

Kevin Faulk, RB, Patriots. As much as the Patriots struggled to move the ball Sunday, it’s hard to say whether Faulk’s prominent role in the offense was simply game-plan driven or a sign of things to come. But seriously, the guy is in his 13th season. How much tread could he possibly have left?

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks. Being the second-best wideout on the Seahawks is kind of like being the second-best singer in the Jackson 5. Who cares? Predicting when Baldwin – or any Seattle receiver, for that matter – will show up is a fool’s game. Don’t waste your time playing.

Fantasy stars emerge from the unlikeliest places

Either there’s been a glitch in the matrix, or the fantasy landscape is undergoing a fairly dramatic shift before our very eyes.

Along with the usual suspects from New England, Green Bay, New Orleans and Philadelphia, the upper echelons of the 2011 fantasy ranks are being invaded by “imposters” from Buffalo, Detroit and (gasp!) Carolina.

I mean, what kind of world are we living in where Cam Newton trails only Tom Brady among fantasy passers? Don’t Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson understand their place in the NFL hierarchy? Didn’t Steve Smith retire two years ago?

As for the emerging stars from Motown, how much can we really trust them? After all, Matt Stafford started just 13 games in his first two seasons. Jahvid Best flamed out three weeks into his rookie season thanks to a nagging turf toe injury. Calvin Johnson, one of the best wideouts in the game, is a virtual fixture on the weekly injury reports.

For now, the best approach is to ride the hot hands while you can. Each of the aforementioned interlopers has climbed into the rarefied air of the every-week starters, which is as refreshing as it is shocking. With all the injuries to key players incurred over the first two weekends, the new blood is arriving just in time.


FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Dexter McCluster, WR/RB, Chiefs. With Jamaal Charles lost for the season, his owners will be scrambling to fill a gaping hole in their lineup. Thomas Jones is Charles’ immediate backup, but he is already widely owned and has clearly lost a step. McCluster is an intriguing pickup, since he is a dual threat you can play in a receiver spot. He’s especially valuable in point-per-reception leagues; and, unlike Jones, he should remain on the field well after the Chiefs have abandoned the run.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys. The rookie was expected to challenge Felix Jones for playing time later this season. But he could be called upon sooner, if Jones’ shoulder separation proves to be serious. Tashard Choice will likely share the backfield, but Murray’s ceiling is much higher.

Ben Tate, RB, Texans. I’m taking the rare step of recommending Tate in two consecutive columns, since he’s still unclaimed in more than a third of all leagues. While Arian Foster’s hamstring remains problematic, Tate should continue to account for the bulk of Houston’s rushing production.

Nate Burleson, WR, Lions. Along with Stafford’s emergence as one of the league’s most prolific young gunslingers, Burleson is quietly becoming fantasy-relevant again. Opposing defenses must focus their attention on Calvin Johnson, leaving the well-traveled veteran in single coverage. Stafford is finding him frequently.

Eric Decker, WR, Broncos. As Brandon Lloyd sat out and Eddie Royal left early with a groin injury, the second-year pro had a breakout game, reeling in five passes for 113 yards and two scores. Decker is known for his excellent hands and route-running ability, and he ran back a punt 90 yards for a score in Week 1, so you know he has wheels. He’s worth a spot on your bench.

Don’t be fooled

Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs. You know you’re in trouble when you can’t even put up garbage-time stats. Cassel’s offense has produced a total of 10 points in the first two weeks. Time to hit the eject button.

Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins. Good, bad or sexy, Grossman belongs nowhere near your roster. His starting job is tenuous at best, and he’s proven over a long career that he simply can’t be trusted in the real, or fantasy, world.

Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders. He’s a rookie receiver, drafted in the fifth round (strike one). He plays in Oakland (strike two). He’s still buried on the depth chart (strike three). On the other hand, the talent above Moore is mediocre at best, and injury-riddled. Still, that’s too many strikes for my taste, and I haven’t even mentioned his quarterback’s shortcomings. Maybe next year.

Kevin Ogletree, WR, Cowboys. If Miles Austin misses a week or more with a hamstring injury, Ogletree will be the next man up. But the fourth-year receiver is an unlikely fantasy hero, especially once Dez Bryant returns to the lineup. Look elsewhere for Austin’s replacement.

Mike Williams, WR, Seahawks. Over the past two weeks, with Sidney Rice (shoulder) inactive, Williams has collected a whopping five passes for 43 yards. Until Seattle upgrades its quarterback situation, no member of this receiving corps merits a roster spot.

Don't be a (knee) jerk

I can just hear the blowhards around the water cooler today.

“Dude, I’m grabbing Cam Newton off waivers and riding Steve Smith and him to the promised land.”

“No joke, man. I’m dumping all my Colts and flipping Chris Johnson for Ray Rice.”

“I’m all over Ben Tate, ‘cause I heard Arian Foster’s hammy is really messed up.”

“Two words, baby: Kenny Britt.”

Every year, like clockwork, the first weekend’s games set off a frenzy of waiver-wire jockeying and panic-induced trading. Rather than viewing this as little more than the first glimpse of a long, rollercoaster season to come, we race to the conclusion that what we just saw is what we’ll be seeing all year. That’s a prescription for disaster.

Don’t make an ill-advised decision you’ll soon regret.

With the exception of the Packers’ and Saints’ offenses, I think it’s premature to project greatness on any of this weekend’s shining stars.

On the flip slide, it’s way too early to give up on any offense, other than perhaps the woeful Seahawks. Let’s give the Colts one more chance, against the visiting Browns, before we bury them.

The Steelers can’t be that bad, on both sides of the ball. Can they?

Remember, the best trades are often the ones you don’t make. And other than replacing an injured player, or taking a flier on a potential free-agent gem, the waiver wire is best used in moderation.


FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bills. Let your opponent slobber all over Newton. You grab the guy with more experience, who was a borderline fantasy starter for much of the 2010 season. Fitzpatrick will be a more reliable QB2, and he has a softer schedule moving forward.

Cadillac Williams, RB, Rams. When Steven Jackson left early with a quadriceps injury, Cadillac came in and proved he still has plenty left in his tank. Even if the starter returns for Week 2, any Jackson owner that neglects to back him up with Williams now is playing with fire.

Ben Tate, RB, Texans. All he needed was an opportunity, and he got it Sunday. Though Arian Foster should be back this weekend, Tate will be the preferred handcuff, especially if Derrick Ward’s ankle injury lingers.

Randall Cobb, WR, Packers. We all know rookie receivers can rarely be trusted. But when his quarterback is Aaron Rodgers, and he has a two-touchdown debut, conventional wisdom goes out the window. As the Packers phase out Donald Driver, Cobb has a legitimate opportunity to vault over his competition into a starting role. He’s worth a spot on your bench until we see more.

Scott Chandler, TE, Bills. Last season, few of us believed what we were witnessing when Stevie Johnson emerged as Ryan Fitzpatrick’s favorite target. So we’d be foolish to assume that Chandler’s 63-yard, two-touchdown outing was a total fluke. Though the journeyman has amassed a grand total of one eight-yard reception in his first four seasons, Fitzgerald needs a complementary receiver to Johnson now that Lee Evans is gone. Why not the 6’7”, 270-pound Chandler?

John Kasay, K, Saints. You’ll need to go kicker shopping if you just lost Nate Kaeding for the season. Kasay is available in about half of all leagues. Other mostly unencumbered options worth considering: Chicago’s Robbie Gould, New York’s Nick Folk and Atlanta’s Matt Bryant.

Don’t be fooled

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. After his record-setting debut, the rookie gunslinger will be the hottest free agent commodity in Fantasyland. But before you burn your waiver priority, note that Newton probably just played the softest defense he’ll see all season. It gets much tougher from here, beginning next week against the Packers. On a more positive note, Steve Smith’s owners have to feel a whole lot better.

Donovan McNabb, QB, Vikings. Is he still sitting on your bench? What are you waiting for? Dump him now, before you find yourself starting him during your real quarterback’s bye. (Some knee-jerk reactions are completely acceptable.)

Devery Henderson, WR, Saints. Now that Marques Colston is out for a month or so with a broken collarbone, the temptation will be to scoop up the leading receiver from Thursday night’s barnburner. But Henderson has a well-earned reputation as a fantasy tease, and I can assure you he doesn’t put out often.

Ted Ginn, WR, 49ers. If you believe Ginn will continue his return-game heroics, then grab San Francisco’s defense/special teams. Because he’s worthless as a receiver.

Rookie prospects even dimmer than usual

With all the hype and breathless reporting that greet rookie classes at the beginning of each NFL season, you’d think they would have a greater impact on fantasy leagues. Yet over the past two seasons, you could count the true difference-makers among the first-year players on one hand.

In 2009, Knowshon Moreno and Percy Harvin were solid, if unspectacular, fantasy contributors. Last year, Tampa Bay gave us LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams, the only rookies worthy of a regular starting role on a fantasy contender.

The pro game is simply too fast, too complex and too long for most newcomers to master in one season. And that’s in a typical year, with a full offseason of training camps, OTAs and class time to prepare.

As we know all too well, this is no typical season; so we’d be wise to lower our expectations accordingly.

Remember that when evaluating the fantasy potential of any rookie, talent is rarely the decisive factor. More relevant is the opportunity presented to the player, which is also a multi-faceted equation.

Does the newcomer have a clear path to a starting gig? Will he join a high-powered offense, or one whose punter is its most lethal weapon? Is he healthy heading into the season, or has he missed invaluable preseason reps due to nagging injuries?

With those caveats in mind, let’s examine the members of the Class of 2011 with the best opportunities to shine in their inaugural seasons.

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints. The table is set for no rookie like the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Ingram is a battering ram with outstanding vision and sure hands, and what he lacks in speed he makes up for in tackle-busting ability. He should become an instant starter and goal-line beast in New Orleans’ high-octane offense. The oft-injured Pierre Thomas is coming off ankle surgery and is unlikely to impede the rookie’s path to stardom.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins. Until Reggie Bush landed in South Beach, Thomas had the Miami backfield all to himself. But the rookie from Kansas State was drafted to be a workhorse, not a passing-game threat like Bush. Thomas’ upside will be limited more by the Dolphins’ offensive struggles than a competition for carries.

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons. Atlanta paid dearly to draft him, so he will be given every opportunity to excel. Jones has all the tools to develop into a superstar, including an up-and-coming quarterback and a prolific offense in dire need of a dynamic complement to elite wideout Roddy White. He’d make a great fantasy WR4 or WR5, but he’ll probably be drafted too high.

Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals. Tim Hightower is a Redskin and Beanie Wells has failed to seize the workhorse role envisioned when he was drafted in 2009. Enter Williams, a big-play threat with the potential to jumpstart the league’s worst rushing attack. Look for the rookie from Virginia Tech to share carries with Wells early on, with the balance shifting Williams’ way as the season wears on, especially if the veteran succumbs to yet another injury.

Alex Henery, K, Eagles. David Akers has been an elite fantasy kicker for years, thanks to Philly’s high-scoring offense. But he left for San Francisco in free agency, leaving the plum assignment to Henery, who set an NCAA record for career field-goal accuracy (89.5%) at Nebraska. Grab him late and reap the rewards.

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals. He has everything you want in a top-flight receiver, except an experienced quarterback to feed him the ball. Green’s combination of size (6-4, 211 pounds), quickness, crisp route running and outstanding hands will likely be squandered until Andy Dalton gets up to speed.

Look, but don’t touch

DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys. Felix Jones enters his fourth season as a tenuous starter at best. Murray, the explosive rookie from Oklahoma, will have an opportunity to seize the role over time, but a bum hamstring during training camp is doing little to dispel his injury-prone label.

Delone Carter, RB, Colts. Donald Brown will begin the season as Joseph Addai’s primary backup. Carter will likely finish the season there.

Greg Little, WR, Browns. The physically gifted wideout instantly becomes the best receiver in Cleveland. If he and Colt McCoy can develop a strong rapport, Little could offer some late-season value. More likely, he won’t be worth a roster spot until 2012.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. On the plus side, he will likely be the Day One starter. On the down side, well, is everything else. Carolina is in rebuilding mode (a nice way of saying they were the NFL’s worst team in 2010), and Newton arrives bereft of experience in the pro-style offense. His transition will surely be ugly at times.


Next week: We’ll dissect the fallout from the recent free agency frenzy.