The Perfect Draft 2.0 (a.k.a., What Could Have Been)

So, uh, how’s that Chris Johnson pick working out for you?

Still think Peyton Hillis was a steal in the third round?

Did you pick the wrong year to load up on Colts?

Yes, dear reader, it’s time for our semi-annual exercise in self-flagellation, when we reflect back two short months on what could have been had we made all the right moves during our preseason draft. Step right up for The Perfect Draft 2.0: Midseason Review.

As always, we start with a few key assumptions. First, we’re in a 10-team league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker and one defense/special teams. Second, we are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a zig-zag format, meaning Adrian Peterson was not available to us in the first round. Third, we’re selecting players based on their average draft position in multiple mock draft sites as of the end of August. And finally, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2011 Fantasy Draft, we should have selected…

Round 1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles. If Shady’s superiority wasn’t clear before Sunday night’s beat-down of the Cowboys, it is now. McCoy has scored at least once in every game, and trails only Peterson (by a smidge) as the top back in Fantasyland. Yet Peterson has played an extra game. I can’t argue with picking Aaron Rodgers, either.

Round 2. Matt Forte, RB, Bears. Tough call here. Calvin Johnson is probably long gone. Tom Brady and Drew Brees are hard to overlook, as are Frank Gore and Greg Jennings. Forte gets the nod for his consistency and his impressive contributions as a receiver.

Round 3. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers. Mr. Big Play hasn’t had an off game yet, and he’s reached the end zone in five out of eight weeks.

Round 4. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots. We passed on Brady, but his most dangerous receiver is a nice consolation prize.

Round 5. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills. We could wait until the sixth round to grab him, but why tempt fate? Jackson has been an absolute beast. We now boast three of the top five fantasy backs.

Round 6. Matt Stafford, QB, Lions. Again, we’re pulling the trigger early, but drafting with 20/20 hindsight gives us that luxury. Stafford has posted 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions while emerging as an elite fantasy passer.

Round 7. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers. Most owners held their noses when drafting Smith, a frequent malcontent who seemed light years removed from his glory days. Little did we know a rookie would lead him to his fountain of youth.

Round 8. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints. Though most of us expected Graham to climb the tight end rankings this season, few thought he’d dominate them like he has. As with Brady, we let Drew Brees slide by; but his favorite target is a good proxy.

Round 9. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals. We knew Green had the pedigree to be special. But teamed with a rookie quarterback in a lackluster offense, how much could we expect from this rookie wideout? Apparently, instant elite status.

Round 10. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots. Another second-year sensation gives us the top pair of tight ends in the business.

Round 11. Ravens defense/special teams. Several units – including the young-and-hungry Lions and 49ers – also offer great value. But Ray Lewis & Company are still bringing the heat in virtually every significant category.

Round 12. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers. He’d have a hard time starting on this roster, but Rodgers’ second-favorite receiver is clearly worthy of a Perfect Draft invitation.

Round 13. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints. Reggie who? Sproles has stepped into the multi-purpose role the Saints designed for Bush and showed him how it’s done.

Round 14. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys. As long as we’re playing with house money, let’s stash this rookie on our bench for his potential late-season run.

Round 15. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. If you were prescient enough to draft Newton, and gutsy enough to start him from Week 1, you are a true fantasy genius. Remarkably, the rookie taken by 2010’s most dreadful NFL team trails only Rodgers among fantasy quarterbacks. It helps that he is also his team’s best running back.

Round 16. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants. Cruz has performed as well as Hakeem Nicks while relegating Mario Manningham to fantasy irrelevance.

Round 17. John Kasay, K, Saints. As usual, several kickers offered excellent final-round value. An eleventh-hour replacement for the injured Garrett Hartley, Kasay has prospered in his mop-up role for the Saints’ prolific offense.

So, how perfect was your draft?

One consolation: If recent history holds, roughly half of these players will not be on our final Perfect Draft roster at season’s end. Hope abounds!

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.
Catch ‘em while you can

Javon Ringer, RB, Titans. If you had never played fantasy football before 2011, you’d have already dropped Chris Johnson in favor of his backup. Ringer is not just a promising handcuff; he could actually supplant the incredible, shrinking Johnson as the starter if he continues to out-perform him.


Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers. Still available in more than half of all leagues, the second-year wideout was targeted a whopping 15 times Sunday. Brown also scored his first career touchdown. His stock should continue to rise even when the aging Hines Ward returns from his ankle injury.

Brent Celek, TE, Eagles. After getting off to an uncharacteristically slow start this season, Celek has scored in back-to-back games. He can help teams with bye-week and injury issues at the tight end position.

Don’t be fooled

Kevin Faulk, RB, Patriots. As much as the Patriots struggled to move the ball Sunday, it’s hard to say whether Faulk’s prominent role in the offense was simply game-plan driven or a sign of things to come. But seriously, the guy is in his 13th season. How much tread could he possibly have left?

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks. Being the second-best wideout on the Seahawks is kind of like being the second-best singer in the Jackson 5. Who cares? Predicting when Baldwin – or any Seattle receiver, for that matter – will show up is a fool’s game. Don’t waste your time playing.

Week 13 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Drew Brees and Dwayne Bowe, or bench Derek Anderson and C.J. Spiller? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for real help with your starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 13 of the 2010 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Sam Bradford, QB, Rams at Cardinals. He threw three interceptions in his first meeting with the Cardinals, which also was his first game as a pro. Arizona won’t recognize the Bradford they see Sunday, who is playing lights-out despite his supporting cast of no-names.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers at Seahawks. After rushing for nearly 100 yards in Week 12 against the Browns, Stewart appears to be back at full strength. Though Mike Goodson has earned a share of the carries going forward, he has been missing practice this week due to the “stress” associated with his wife’s late-term pregnancy. Hmm. Seattle’s pathetic run defense awaits.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears at Lions. He has been a little better than average over the last several weeks, but at least Chester Taylor is no longer a major competitor for carries. Now Forte faces the team he torched for 201 combined yards and two TDs in Week 1.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets at Patriots. He’s taken a backseat to Santonio Holmes, who is now an every-week fantasy starter. But Edwards should be in your lineup, too, against a Patriots secondary that is coughing up a league-worst 288 passing yards per game.

Jabar Gaffney, WR, Broncos at Chiefs. Denver’s wideouts all had fun the last time these teams met, with Gaffney pulling in one of five passing TDs. Look for Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd and Gaffney to have another fine afternoon against Kansas City’s slumping secondary.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, David Garrard, Eli Manning, Mark Sanchez; RBs Jamaal Charles, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Knowshon Moreno; WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Stevie Johnson, Santonio Holmes, Pierre Garcon, Johnny Knox, Davone Bess, Percy Harvin, Mario Manningham, Mike Williams (TB), Derrick Mason, Dez Bryant.

Roll ‘em back

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers at Ravens. He has been limping through practice on an injured foot – either broken or sprained, depending on whom you believe – but he should play Sunday night. Just don’t count on much against the Ravens’ stingy pass defense. Big Ben hasn’t connected on more than a single TD pass in a game against Baltimore since 2007.

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders at Chargers. McFadden’s production has fallen off precipitously over the past three weeks, and he appears to be wearing down with the heavy workload. The NFL’s second-ranked run defense is an unlikely opponent to allow him to rebound.

Keiland Williams, RB, Redskins at Giants. His 15 minutes of fantasy fame may be over, even though Ryan Torain (hamstring) is unlikely to return this week. James Davis is now sharing backfield carries and Washington’s offensive line isn’t opening holes for either rusher lately.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Bengals vs. Saints. New Orleans continues to hold opposing receivers out of the end zone, while Cincinnati’s starting wideouts were shut down by the Jets in Week 12. Look for both trends to continue this weekend.

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers at Packers. He has caught all three of Troy Smith’s TD passes over the past four games, which tells you all you need to know about Smith’s fantasy value. But Crabtree’s yardage and targets have been mediocre. Green Bay has allowed just 10 passing TDs all season, so don’t expect much from the duo on the frozen tundra.

More thumbs down: QBs Brett Favre, Kerry Collins, Joe Flacco, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell; RBs Ronnie Brown, Maurice Morris, Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Brian Westbrook, Mike Goodson; WRs Malcom Floyd, Santana Moss, Ben Obomanu, Miles Austin, Jacoby Ford, Deion Branch, Donald Driver, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall.

TAKING A FLIER

Seyi Ajirotutu, WR, Chargers vs. Raiders. Vincent Jackson barely made a cameo appearance before injuring his groin; Malcom Floyd is still bothered by a hamstring; Antonio Gates may not play due to his feet issues and Patrick Crayton (wrist) is already ruled out. Ajirotutu and Legedu Naanee may be Philip Rivers’ last healthy wideouts standing, which could open the door for solid production from one or both vowel-blessed receivers.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…fails to check on Adrian Peterson’s playing status on Sunday morning (on your own or via my tweets). He’ll be a game-time decision; and if he doesn’t go, Toby Gerhart could be in for a monster outing against the Bills’ sieve-like run defense.