Upsets rule Week 15, in fantasy and reality

Upsets made headlines across the NFL this week. So it should come as no surprise that several top-seeded fantasy teams were sent packing as well.

Who could have imagined that the lowly Chiefs would spoil the Packers’ march to perfection? Even more inconceivable was a scoreless first half performance by Aaron Rodgers and the most prolific offense in the NFL.

Rodgers managed to finish with respectable fantasy numbers, but Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Tom Brady and Tony Romo put him to shame when it counted most.

Remarkably, three of the top seeds in my four leagues went down to defeat this weekend, thanks to uncharacteristically pedestrian performances from such stalwarts as Rodgers, Eli Manning, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Jordy Nelson, Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Gates. Greg Jennings’ absence hurt as well.

Hey, even the Colts had to win some time, right?

If your fantasy season ended more abruptly than expected due to poorly timed swoons from your key starters, I feel your pain. Over the years, I’ve steamrolled into the playoffs with a seemingly indestructible team, only to watch in vain as my studs wilted on the field.

For every Calvin Johnson owner exulting in his receiver’s overpowering performance against the Raiders, there’s another owner wondering why Megatron had to break out of his mini-slump this weekend. We’ve all been there, buddy.

Ultimate success in Fantasyland rarely comes by accident; but just as rarely is it achieved without a dollop of luck along the way.

Losers, keep your chin up. Momma said there’d be days like this. Winners, don’t get too cocky. Things change quickly around here.

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

Now that the fantasy postseason is upon us, your starting roster should be fairly settled. But a little tweaking here or there, if only to keep your competition from improving, might still be in order. Here’s a look at a couple of players that could help in the final weeks, and a couple that won’t.

Catch ‘em while you can

Matt Moore, QB, Dolphins. I can’t imagine any scenario in which a title-contending fantasy team would need to resort to a flier at the quarterback position. But if you’re the rare exception, Moore is your man. Not only did he fare well in the snowy conditions of Buffalo on Sunday, but he’ll face the ragtag Patriots secondary next weekend.

Brent Celek, TE, Eagles. His career-best game (156 yards, 1 TD) came against a solid Jets secondary and included receptions of 13, 26, 38 and 73 yards. Now that Michael Vick is reasonably healthy, Celek is a viable receiving option, especially if DeSean Jackson’s elbow injury limits his playing time.


Don’t be fooled

Kahlil Bell, RB, Bears. It’s little surprise that after Marion Barber’s costly mistakes in Week 14, and his modest production Sunday against the Seahawks, Bell was given a chance to shine. The second-year back took advantage of his opportunity, but only if you were banking on Barber should Bell even be a consideration.

Donald Brown, RB, Colts. If you have to own a Colt tailback, Brown is the guy you want. Fortunately, nobody’s forcing you to own one. His 80-yard touchdown run against the Titans was a thing of beauty; but the highlights for this offense, and this running game in particular, are few and far between.

Greg Little, WR, Browns. The rookie flashed some promise earlier in the season, but his size and talent have mostly been squandered in Cleveland’s moribund offense. He broke loose on a 76-yard scoring reception against the Cardinals, which gave him a career-high 131-yard, one-touchdown game. Keep him on your radar for next season’s draft.

Perfect Draft: The Final Countdown

That sinking feeling I had in late August when I took Anquan Boldin near the end of the fifth round and gambled that Arian Foster would still be there on the swing-back could not have been more prescient. Not only did I miss out on fantasy’s top running back, but I lost in the first round of the playoffs by one stinking point to the jerk – I mean guy – who stole Foster out from under me.


A few days after the aforementioned draft, I refused to repeat the mistake in another league and grabbed Foster early in the fifth round. Thanks to him, and a certain electrifying quarterback I snared off the waiver wire, I now own the champion’s trophy.

But as solid as that team was, my draft was hardly perfect. I used a second-rounder on Miles Austin – who rode my bench down the stretch – and wasted later picks on Cadillac Williams, Jacoby Jones and the 49ers defense. Indeed, I’ve yet to see anyone have a “perfect” draft, so it’s comforting to know that perfection isn’t necessary to win a title.

But it sure would be nice, wouldn’t it?

That’s why I always wrap up the season by exploring what could have been had we made all the right moves during our preseason draft, with the oft-imitated, always-controversial, yet magically delicious 2010 Perfect Draft: The Final Countdown.

As usual, we operate under a few key assumptions:

1. We’re in a 10-team league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker and one defense/special teams.
2. We are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a zig-zag format, meaning Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson will be gone by the time we pick.
3. The preseason average draft position (ADP) of each player – according to multiple mock draft sites canvassed during early September – is used to determine the most valuable selections in each round;
4. Week 17 performances are disregarded and production during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14 through 16) is given extra weight, both positively and negatively; and,
5. Since all drafts play out differently, we’ll need a little luck along the way.

And finally, in the spirit of truth, justice and the American Way, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2010 Fantasy Draft, we should have selected…

Round 1. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. Drafting with 20/20 hindsight allows us to make this pick. Rodgers will help us dominate the first half of the season while we wait for Michael Vick’s ribs to heal. Vick will return the favor when Rodgers suffers his late-season concussion. Drew Brees was nearly as good, but had more than double Rodgers’ interceptions. Frank Gore was on track to be the most valuable first-rounder until his season-ending hip injury in Week 12. Steven Jackson offered steady, if unspectacular, production.


Round 2. Roddy White, WR, Falcons. He delivered virtually every week, while winning our Week 7 and 10 matchups nearly single-handedly. In point-per-reception (PPR) formats, White is the hands-down pick here. Otherwise, Calvin Johnson and Greg Jennings are equally valuable.

Round 3. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles. Tom Brady is arguably a better overall choice here, but he won’t help us much while Vick is out. Philip Rivers was stellar through Week 11, so teaming him with Gore, Jackson or another elite back from the first round works well, too. But for my money, I’ll take the steady and consistent Shady in a slight edge over Jamaal Charles, especially in PPR leagues.

Round 4. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers. When he’s healthy, no tight end holds a candle to Gates. We’ll miss him during the playoffs, but he’ll play a key role in getting us there.

Round 5. Arian Foster, RB, Texans. The top back in Fantasyland moved up draft boards on a near-daily basis as the regular season approached, so early drafters could have secured him more cheaply. Foster was arguably the most important draft-day pick of the year.


Round 6. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs. Aside from a slow start and a devastating late-season stretch attributable mostly to Matt Cassel’s injury, Bowe was a fantasy beast. You could make the case that Hakeem Nicks offered more value in this round, since his two lost games were due to injury (and therefore manageable).

Round 7. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers. He won’t crack our starting lineup most weeks, but we’ll take a Top 10 fantasy receiver in the seventh round any day.

Round 8. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles. Here’s another luxury pick who will finish the season as a near-elite wideout but will arguably be the “worst” receiver on our roster. Don’t hate us because we’re perfect.

Round 9. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Jets. During the first half of the season, LT played like a young man again. We’ll rest him down the stretch (as the Jets did), but he deserves a spot on this roster.

Round 10. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders. He’ll drive us crazy with his inconsistency, but RunDMC finally took his place among the elite fantasy RBs in 2010. Kellen Winslow is a nice backup TE option here, too.

Round 11. Steelers defense/special teams. Several units offered strong value, and could be taken much later. But why not grab the best while we can? Pittsburgh’s defense surrendered the fewest points of any team, and shared the NFL sacks lead (44).

Round 12. Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns. Here’s where we get a little wacky with our picks. Until he started breaking down in December, Hillis was among the most valuable, and dependable, fantasy players at any position. He reached the end zone in 11 out of the first 12 games. And to think he went undrafted in most leagues.

Round 13. Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jaguars. If not for a late-season surge by Jason Witten (driven by the near-sighted Jon Kitna), Lewis would be the ideal backup option to Gates. If we grab him here, we avoid the rush to claim him after the season opener.


Round 14. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Broncos. Raise your hand if you thought Lloyd would be a decent bench receiver this year, much less among the top two wideouts in the business. Yeah, that’s what I thought.

Round 15. Stevie Johnson, WR, Bills. Your friends will think you’re drunk when you call out his name. Frankly, who could blame them? Prefer BenJarvus Green-Ellis? Fine with me.

Round 16. Sebastian Janikowski, K, Raiders. Once again, owners who used an earlier pick on an “elite” kicker were out-gunned by those who waited patiently. Janikowski set the standard this year.


Round 17. Michael Vick, QB, Eagles. For the first time in, um, forever, the consensus MVP of Fantasyland went undrafted in most leagues. The only thing better than grabbing him off the waiver wire after Kevin Kolb went down in Week 1 is looking like a freaking genius for selecting him in the last round of the draft.

So…how perfect was your draft?

Coming next week: We’ll conclude the season with the 2010 Biro’s Heroes & Zeros Awards. Your nominations are welcome here. I'll post key awards categories this weekend.

Sunday morning updates - Week 15

Good morning, Fools. Here we go again, and this time it's for keeps -- either Week 1 or Week 2 of the postseason for virtually every fantasy league. We've gotta get it right today, folks. Let's see wassup around the league...

First off, I hope you started V-Jax and/or the Chargers defense Thursday night, as I did. I'm up 47-1 already in one of my leagues, thanks to those decisions, and the play of Vernon Davis by my opponent. I'm not counting my winnings yet, but I feel a lot better in my shoes than his going into today's matchups...

You know Aaron Rodgers has been ruled out. Fortunately they didn't leave us hanging all day. Now you know you need to start someone else this afternoon. You sure don't want to rely on Matt Flynn outdoors at night against the hot Patriots defense.

And I wouldn't touch Jay Cutler on Monday night outdoors on the U of Minnesota's rock-hard turf. That's just asking for a concussion against the Vikings' pass rush. Temperature at game-time is expected to be in the mid-teens.

Rookie Joe Webb will start at QB for the injured Favre, who is already officially listed as out. Webb is listed as a WR in some leagues (including Yahoo's), so while I would never consider starting him as a QB, he's an intriguing option if you can list him as a third WR (or flex play). He could toss or run for a TD or two, which would make him one of the stronger WR plays of the weekend. Just saying...

The Chiefs are apparently planning to roll with Matt Cassel today. While I wouldn't want him in my lineup (no telling how long he lasts less than 2 weeks removed from an appendectomy), I'd feel a lot better about starting Bowe if Brodie Croyle isn't the QB.

The Tim Tebow Era will begin for the Broncos today. Kyle Orton (ribs) may be active, but Tebow is expected to get his first career start. No telling how he'll fare in the Black Hole, but I suspect he'll have more rushing TDs than passing scores over the next couple of weeks. Again, with a new QB at the controls, all bets are off for the Broncos' slumping receivers, including Brandon Lloyd. Frankly, I wouldn't have them much higher on my pecking order even if Orton was playing. Remember that Oakland shellacked Denver 59-14 in Week 7.

The Rex Grossman Era will begin today for the Redskins, with McNabb now relegated to 3rd string. (John Beck is No. 2.) Don't be surprised if the Beck Era begins next week in Washington.

It's John Skelton vs. Jimmy Clausen in Carolina today. Zzzzzzzz....

Signs are pointing to Chris Ivory sitting out the Ravens game with a bad hammy. That would leave Pierre Thomas as the primary rusher, with Reggie Bush presumably getting more touches as well. If it wasn't for the tough matchup on the road, I'd be intrigued by Pierre. But as it is, I think it's awfully risky.

Marion Barber will probably not play today, which helps uncomplicate the Dallas RB rotation. Felix Jones is a decent play, with Tashard Choice a bit of a wild card. We just don't know how many touches he will receive.

DeSean Jackson (foot) will play today as usual.

Dallas' Roy Williams (hamstring) is not expected to be active. But no official word yet.

Recently acquired WR Kevin Curtis is expected to be active for the Dolphins today. No, you shouldn't pick him up. Just thought I should let you know.

Heath Miller is out again due to his concussion.

Joe Nedney was just placed on IR. Jeff Reed will kick for the 49ers for the remainder of the season.

It's going to be wet in Oakland, and freezing in Cinci, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New York, Minneapolis and New England. But it doesn't look like the weather will play as big a role in the outcomes of this weekend's games as it did last week.

Okay, that's it for today's blog updates. Be sure you're following my tweets for the game-day inactives and other breaking news, which will begin shortly. Good luck to all Fools!