Perfect Draft: The Final Countdown

That sinking feeling I had in late August when I took Anquan Boldin near the end of the fifth round and gambled that Arian Foster would still be there on the swing-back could not have been more prescient. Not only did I miss out on fantasy’s top running back, but I lost in the first round of the playoffs by one stinking point to the jerk – I mean guy – who stole Foster out from under me.


A few days after the aforementioned draft, I refused to repeat the mistake in another league and grabbed Foster early in the fifth round. Thanks to him, and a certain electrifying quarterback I snared off the waiver wire, I now own the champion’s trophy.

But as solid as that team was, my draft was hardly perfect. I used a second-rounder on Miles Austin – who rode my bench down the stretch – and wasted later picks on Cadillac Williams, Jacoby Jones and the 49ers defense. Indeed, I’ve yet to see anyone have a “perfect” draft, so it’s comforting to know that perfection isn’t necessary to win a title.

But it sure would be nice, wouldn’t it?

That’s why I always wrap up the season by exploring what could have been had we made all the right moves during our preseason draft, with the oft-imitated, always-controversial, yet magically delicious 2010 Perfect Draft: The Final Countdown.

As usual, we operate under a few key assumptions:

1. We’re in a 10-team league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker and one defense/special teams.
2. We are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a zig-zag format, meaning Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson will be gone by the time we pick.
3. The preseason average draft position (ADP) of each player – according to multiple mock draft sites canvassed during early September – is used to determine the most valuable selections in each round;
4. Week 17 performances are disregarded and production during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14 through 16) is given extra weight, both positively and negatively; and,
5. Since all drafts play out differently, we’ll need a little luck along the way.

And finally, in the spirit of truth, justice and the American Way, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2010 Fantasy Draft, we should have selected…

Round 1. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. Drafting with 20/20 hindsight allows us to make this pick. Rodgers will help us dominate the first half of the season while we wait for Michael Vick’s ribs to heal. Vick will return the favor when Rodgers suffers his late-season concussion. Drew Brees was nearly as good, but had more than double Rodgers’ interceptions. Frank Gore was on track to be the most valuable first-rounder until his season-ending hip injury in Week 12. Steven Jackson offered steady, if unspectacular, production.


Round 2. Roddy White, WR, Falcons. He delivered virtually every week, while winning our Week 7 and 10 matchups nearly single-handedly. In point-per-reception (PPR) formats, White is the hands-down pick here. Otherwise, Calvin Johnson and Greg Jennings are equally valuable.

Round 3. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles. Tom Brady is arguably a better overall choice here, but he won’t help us much while Vick is out. Philip Rivers was stellar through Week 11, so teaming him with Gore, Jackson or another elite back from the first round works well, too. But for my money, I’ll take the steady and consistent Shady in a slight edge over Jamaal Charles, especially in PPR leagues.

Round 4. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers. When he’s healthy, no tight end holds a candle to Gates. We’ll miss him during the playoffs, but he’ll play a key role in getting us there.

Round 5. Arian Foster, RB, Texans. The top back in Fantasyland moved up draft boards on a near-daily basis as the regular season approached, so early drafters could have secured him more cheaply. Foster was arguably the most important draft-day pick of the year.


Round 6. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs. Aside from a slow start and a devastating late-season stretch attributable mostly to Matt Cassel’s injury, Bowe was a fantasy beast. You could make the case that Hakeem Nicks offered more value in this round, since his two lost games were due to injury (and therefore manageable).

Round 7. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers. He won’t crack our starting lineup most weeks, but we’ll take a Top 10 fantasy receiver in the seventh round any day.

Round 8. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles. Here’s another luxury pick who will finish the season as a near-elite wideout but will arguably be the “worst” receiver on our roster. Don’t hate us because we’re perfect.

Round 9. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Jets. During the first half of the season, LT played like a young man again. We’ll rest him down the stretch (as the Jets did), but he deserves a spot on this roster.

Round 10. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders. He’ll drive us crazy with his inconsistency, but RunDMC finally took his place among the elite fantasy RBs in 2010. Kellen Winslow is a nice backup TE option here, too.

Round 11. Steelers defense/special teams. Several units offered strong value, and could be taken much later. But why not grab the best while we can? Pittsburgh’s defense surrendered the fewest points of any team, and shared the NFL sacks lead (44).

Round 12. Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns. Here’s where we get a little wacky with our picks. Until he started breaking down in December, Hillis was among the most valuable, and dependable, fantasy players at any position. He reached the end zone in 11 out of the first 12 games. And to think he went undrafted in most leagues.

Round 13. Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jaguars. If not for a late-season surge by Jason Witten (driven by the near-sighted Jon Kitna), Lewis would be the ideal backup option to Gates. If we grab him here, we avoid the rush to claim him after the season opener.


Round 14. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Broncos. Raise your hand if you thought Lloyd would be a decent bench receiver this year, much less among the top two wideouts in the business. Yeah, that’s what I thought.

Round 15. Stevie Johnson, WR, Bills. Your friends will think you’re drunk when you call out his name. Frankly, who could blame them? Prefer BenJarvus Green-Ellis? Fine with me.

Round 16. Sebastian Janikowski, K, Raiders. Once again, owners who used an earlier pick on an “elite” kicker were out-gunned by those who waited patiently. Janikowski set the standard this year.


Round 17. Michael Vick, QB, Eagles. For the first time in, um, forever, the consensus MVP of Fantasyland went undrafted in most leagues. The only thing better than grabbing him off the waiver wire after Kevin Kolb went down in Week 1 is looking like a freaking genius for selecting him in the last round of the draft.

So…how perfect was your draft?

Coming next week: We’ll conclude the season with the 2010 Biro’s Heroes & Zeros Awards. Your nominations are welcome here. I'll post key awards categories this weekend.

Week 12 Heroes & Zeros

This was a great week to start…

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots – Gave his owners 341 yards and 4 TDs to be thankful for.
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears – Threw for 247 yards and 4 TDs and ran for 17 yards.
Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs – Passed for 233 yards and 4 TDs, while running for 28 yards.
Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos – Accumulated 3 TDs and 347 yards without a turnover.
Sam Bradford, QB, Rams – Passed for 308 yards and 3 TDs.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns – Ran for 131 yards and a trio of TDs, and added 63 receiving yards on 6 catches.
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs – Rushed for 173 yards and 1 TD.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers – Rumbled for 151 yards and a score, with a fumble.
Mike Goodson, RB, Panthers – Withstood J-Stew’s presence to run for 55 yards and 1 TD, while adding 8 receptions for 81 yards.
Arian Foster, RB, Texans – Ran for 143 yards and caught 9 passes for 75 yards.
Fred Jackson, RB, Bills – Caught 5 passes for 104 yards and 1 TD, plus 59 rushing yards.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots – The Law Firm ran for 59 yards and 2 scores on Thanksgiving.
Chris Ivory, RB, Saints – Only ran for 38 yards, but scored twice in the process.


Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs – Caught 13 passes for 170 yards and a TD hat trick.
Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders – Caught 4 passes for 108 yards and 1 TD, ran for 13 yards and returned a kickoff 101 yards for another score.
Deion Branch, WR, Patriots – Torched the Lions for 113 yards and 2 TDs on just 3 catches.
Wes Welker, WR, Patriots – Scored twice on 8 catches for 90 yards.
Brandon Lloyd, WR, Broncos – Hauled in 4 passes for 76 yards and 2 TDs.

Chargers defense/special teams – Scored twice on INT returns, racked up five turnovers and added a sack, while holding Peyton Manning & Co. to 14 points.
Jets defense/special teams – Accumulated 3 sacks, 2 INTs, a safety and an 89-yard kickoff return score by Brad Smith, while holding Cincinnati to 10 points.

This was a great week to play against…

Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals – Threw for just 135 yards and 1 TD, with 2 INTs.
Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets – Managed only 166 yards, 1 TD and an INT.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers – Just 246 yards passing and an 18-yard run against the lowly Bills defense.
Brett Favre, QB, Vikings – Passed for 172 yards without a score (or a turnover).
Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers – Threw for 185 yards, but no TDs.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans – Somehow managed to amass a measly 5 rushing yards plus 2 more yards on 2 catches.
Jahvid Best, RB, Lions – Was active, but didn’t get a single carry.
Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals – Couldn’t get a stinking yard on 5 carries.
Reggie Bush, RB, Saints – In his first action in several games, got just one 1-yard carry and a 12-yard reception.
Keiland Williams, RB, Redskins – Had 21 yards on 4 receptions, but just 5 rushing yards.
Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals – Held to 41 rushing yards.
Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers – Limited to 26 rushing yards and 3 receptions for 10 more.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks – Ran for 20 yards and added 2 catches for 13 yards.
Frank Gore, RB, 49ers – Managed 52 rushing yards before leaving with a hip injury.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys – Held without a catch on Thanksgiving.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers – Posted a goose egg in his first game back, thanks to groin and calf injuries.
Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers – Also held catchless.
Lee Evans, WR, Bills – One 9-yard reception on the day, with a fumble to boot.
Nate Washington, WR, Titans – Caught a 10-yard pass against the league’s worst secondary.
Terrell Owens, WR, Bengals – Marooned on Revis Island again, with just 3 catches for 17 yards.
Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets – Only 20 yards on 2 catches.
Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers – Ditto.
Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings – Got his 20 yards on a single reception.
Randy Moss, WR, Titans – Tripled his catch total as a Titan with 3 for 23 yards.
Donald Driver, WR, Packers – His 2 catches were good for 26 yards.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles – Ditto.
Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens – Notched 3 passes for 27 yards.
Steve Smith, WR, Panthers – Another disappointing day, with 33 yards on 2 catches.
Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers – Got his 33 yards on 3 catches.

I didn’t see that coming…

Maurice Morris, RB, Lions – Ran for 55 yards and 2 TDs and caught 5 passes for 20 yards.
Brian Westbrook, RB, 49ers – Subbing for an injured Frank Gore, Westy rushed for 136 yards and 1 TD, and looked good doing it.

Ben Obomanu, WR, Seahawks – Caught 5 passes for 159 yards and 1 TD.
Earl Bennett, WR, Bears – Reeled in 4 passes for 56 yards and 2 scores.

Billy Bajema, TE, Rams – Scored twice on 3 receptions for 32 yards.

The best fantasy defense isn’t who you think

Quick: Which team fields the best defense in Fantasyland?

First, did you answer out loud? If so, please don’t do that again. You’re embarrassing yourself.

So, did you say Pittsburgh? Nope.

How about the Giants? Nuh-uh.

Maybe Tennessee? Wrong again.


Okay, so it was a trick question. My criteria for this distinction doesn’t involve sacks, turnovers, points-allowed or defensive scoring. Rather, I’m referring to the defensive unit that serves up the most fantasy points to its opponents.

And by that measure, nobody holds a candle to the Houston Texans.

In a league where there are few absolutes and every trend is meant to be broken, the Texans are the closest thing to a sure bet you’ll find. Plug a quarterback and receiver into your starting lineup against Houston, and watch the fantasy points fly.

Four of the six QBs that have faced the Texans thus far in 2010 – Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Bruce Gradkowski and Eli Manning – had their best statistical performances of the season against them. Matt Cassel had his second-best outing, and Tony Romo had a strong day as well.

Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, Dwayne Bowe, Roy Williams and Zach Miller each posted their most productive games of the year against the Texans’ sieve-like secondary. Austin Collie, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark torched them for 342 yards and a touchdown apiece in the opener. Santana Moss never reached the end zone, but his 10-catch, 89-yard effort was a keeper. Among top wideouts, only Miles Austin has been held in check by Houston this season.

Perhaps the Texans will right their defensive ship over their Week 7 bye, though that seems highly improbable given the season-ending injury suffered by All Pro linebacker DeMeco Ryans against the Chiefs. More likely, fantasy’s “best” defense will return from the break just in time to get walloped by the Colts again. Then the Chargers, Jaguars, Jets and Titans will take turns feasting at Houston’s fantasy smorgasbord in November.

Plan accordingly.

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, you need to start with a good draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents can also make a big difference. Here’s a look at a few players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else’s line-up.

Catch ‘em while you can

Chris Ivory, RB, Saints. After his 175-combined-yard performance against the Bucs, the undrafted rookie deserves some love. Should Pierre Thomas miss another game, as expected, with his sprained ankle, Ivory will have a favorable matchup against the Browns in Week 7. He doesn’t offer much long-term value, and he’ll give up some touches to Ladell Betts and even Julius Jones, but he can be a nice bye-week filler in a pinch.

Deion Branch, WR, Patriots. Before you get caught up in the “good ole days” bandwagon, remember that Branch has never cracked the Top 20 ranks among fantasy wideouts. His career highs in receiving yards (998) and touchdowns (5) came in 2005. That said, Branch’s nine-catch, 98-yard, one-TD outing Sunday was the best production for a Patriot receiver this season. He’s worth a pickup; just don’t expect consistent fireworks.

Jason Avant, WR, Eagles. If you saw the hit DeSean Jackson took Sunday, you know he’s not playing next week (and the Eagles’ bye is Week 8). His absence could extend even longer, given the severity of his concussion (and subsequent memory loss). Avant ascends to the starting lineup, which is a good place to be when both the quarterbacks who could be passing to you are playing great.

Fred Davis, TE, Redskins. The backup notched six TD passes in 2009 after Chris Cooley fractured his ankle in Week 7 and was lost for the season. Davis should get another chance to shine while Cooley recovers from a concussion incurred Sunday night, especially with tight end-friendly McNabb at the controls.

Don’t be fooled

Shaun Hill, QB, Lions. He had a great run, but a broken forearm and the impending return of starter Matt Stafford spell the end of Hill’s fantasy relevance this season. Give him a peck on the cheek and promise to give him another chance next year, especially if he finds a starting job via free agency.

Patrick Crayton, WR, Chargers. If Antonio Gates misses time with his ankle injury, and if Malcom Floyd’s hamstring forces him out, and if Legedu Naanee remains inactive with his own hamstring problem, then Crayton could followup his fine outing in St. Louis with another solid performance against the Patriots next week. That’s a lot of ifs.

Devery Henderson, WR, Saints. The problem with Henderson is that he always seems to have a good game the minute you give up on him. Which underscores the real issue: He’s inconsistent as all get-out. After being targeted just once against the Bucs, and being out-shined by Lance Moore and Robert Meachem again, it may be best to eliminate the problem altogether.

Kevin Walter, WR, Texans. Jacoby Jones and Owen Daniels are now fully healthy. The team is heading into their Week 7 bye. And Walter wasn’t targeted a single time against the Chiefs. Three strikes, he’s out.