Sunday, December 4, 2011

Sunday morning updates -- Week 13

Good morning, Fools. Cold and drizzly here in North Texas; but this is the last week of the fantasy regular season for most of us, so it's time to get serious.

Here's the news you can use to make the best lineup choices this weekend:

Adrian Peterson will be out again today. Toby Gerhart is a decent proxy in his place, though the Broncos are very stout at the goal line.

Josh Freeman will not play today due to a shoulder injury. John Johnson gets the start against the Panthers. Hopefully he knows how to get the ball to Mike Williams. Should be a big day for LeGarrette Blount.

There's a good chance Ahmad Bradshaw will be active today against the Packers, but I wouldn't risk him. Brandon Jacobs' value takes a big hit, though.

Percy Harvin has been ill this week, but he's still expected to suit up. He should have a good game at home against Denver, assuming he's close to 100%.

We should see Malcom Floyd (hip) back in action today, which means Vincent Brown is a must-sit. Floyd should also be reserved against the tough Jags secondary.

After some signs that he would play, Mario Manningham (knee) now sounds like he'll be inactive today after a setback in Friday's practice. Nicks and Cruz are the only Giants WRs you should start anyway.

That's it for now. Inactives coming next via Twitter (@ladd_biro).

Good luck, Fools!

Friday, December 2, 2011

Friday updates

Here are a few snippets from my 4th & Long column on Sporting News' Fantasy Source:

The Kevin Kolb era is set to resume on Sunday now that the passer has recovered from toe and foot injuries. I’m not optimistic that this go-round will be any better than the last; and you don’t get the impression Kolb’s coaches believe it either.

you’re not counting on Josh Freeman, but he has been missing practice all week with a shoulder injury. Josh Johnson could be under center for the Bucs’ contest with the Panthers. That wouldn’t prompt me to bench Mike Williams, but it would make me feel even better if I owned LeGarrette Blount.

Looks like it will be a game-time decision for Adrian Peterson (ankle) on Sunday. If he’s active, of course you start him. If not, Toby Gerhart has a decent matchup with the Broncos, though they’ve been stingy at the goal line. [Update: AP has subsequently been ruled out.]

We could see Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) back on the field Sunday, but he’ll be a significant fantasy risk in his first action in weeks.

Beanie Wells had a career game last week against a historically putrid Rams run defense, but things get tougher against the Cowboys on Sunday. That said, in spite of continued issues with his knee, you can’t sit him now.

A foot injury that has kept Cedric Benson from practicing is not expected to keep him from facing the Steelers. But it should make your decision to bench him in this bad matchup a little easier.

Surprisingly, Kevin Smith is practicing as if he’s planning to return to the starting lineup on Sunday, after suffering a high ankle sprain on Thanksgiving. What would be more surprising is for us to trust him in our lineups against the Saints.

Another week, another Darren McFadden injury timeout.

Ditto for Miles Austin.

It’s time to give up on Mario Manningham, who is facing the real possibility of season-ending knee surgery soon. With the emergence of Victor Cruz, Manningham is already the odd man out in the Giants’ receiving corps.

Meanwhile, Hakeem Nicks has been resting his sore ribs this week, but he’s not thought to be in jeopardy of missing out on the primo matchup with the Packers. Even better, he has been cleared of any post-concussion symptoms.

Which team will win the Donovan McNabb waiver wire sweepstakes? And would that really qualify as a win?

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Week 13 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Tom Brady and Calvin Johnson, or to bench T.J. Yates and Ryan Torain? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 13 of the 2011 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers at Buccaneers. Some of the shine has worn off the rookie sensation recently, as Newton has failed to keep up the ridiculous pace he set at the dawn of his NFL career. But things get much easier in Tampa Bay, where the Bucs’ sieve-like secondary won’t stand a chance against the Newton-Steve Smith combo. You can count on a rushing score from the jumbo-sized passer as well.

Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins vs. Raiders. Rookie Daniel Thomas has taken a back seat to Bush, who consistently piles up multi-purpose yardage even when he doesn’t reach the end zone. Bush should have little trouble dominating the weak Oakland defense, and at least one TD seems assured.


DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers at Buccaneers. It took a dozen weeks, but Williams finally delivered. Sadly, he did so while sitting on most owners’ benches. Slot him back in your lineup Sunday so you don’t miss out on another rousing performance against Tampa Bay’s reeling run defense.

Eric Decker, WR, Broncos at Vikings. It’s hard to get excited about a guy who posted a goose egg two weeks ago, and who plays with a quarterback that rarely throws. On the other hand, Decker has four scoring receptions over the last five games, and he’s facing the league’s most generous secondary (22 passing TDs surrendered). Start him.

Deion Branch, WR, Patriots vs. Colts. Branch is typically a boom or bust play in any given week, but when the opponent is the hapless Colts, the odds are in your favor. Tom Brady could set records in this matchup if he doesn’t hit the showers early, which he rarely does.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Tim Tebow, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford; RBs Willis McGahee, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Toby Gerhart, Roy Helu, LeGarrette Blount, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, BenJarvus Green-Ellis; WRs Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Stevie Johnson, Antonio Brown, Victor Cruz, Laurent Robinson, Dez Bryant, Lance Moore, Mike Williams (TB), Nate Washington, Michael Crabtree.

Roll ‘em back

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers at Jaguars. The incredible, shrinking Rivers travels cross-country to face a bad team with a solid pass defense. While we never know in advance whether Vincent Jackson will show up, it is clear that Rivers is not firing on all cylinders. Reserve him if you can.


Steven Jackson, RB, Rams at 49ers. I have no choice but to start Jackson in one league, but I wouldn’t if I had a reasonable alternative. Not only have the 49ers refused to allow a runner into the end zone all year, but Jackson has been weighed down by the Rams’ anemic offense for weeks.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns vs. Ravens. On the positive side, Hillis appears to be reasonably healthy and he has reclaimed his workhorse role in the Browns’ offense. However, that offense struggles to move even in favorable matchups, and the Ravens are far from favorable.

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons at Texans. Not only did he post a goose egg last week, but he wasn’t even targeted once by Matt Ryan. That’s a pretty strong signal that his hamstring isn’t yet fully healed. The concerns mount this week, as Jones is facing the NFL’s second-ranked pass defense.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens at Browns. Baltimore’s lead wideout has been in a rut lately, with a 35-yard TD catch comprising his highlight reel since Week 8. He’s unlikely to break out of his slump against Cleveland’s top-ranked secondary.

More thumbs down: QBs Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Rex Grossman, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Kevin Kolb; RBs Shonn Greene, Jackie Battle, Kevin Smith, James Starks, Joseph Addai; WRs Andre Johnson, Earl Bennett, Jason Avant, Santana Moss, Vincent Brown, Mario Manningham, Miles Austin.

Taking a flier

Matt Moore, QB, Dolphins vs. Raiders. If you’re hurting at quarterback this week, consider Moore, who has been respectable or better in three of his last four starts. Moore has developed a nice rapport with Brandon Marshall, and he has enough additional weapons to keep the Raiders’ mediocre secondary on their heels.

Don’t be the bonehead who…stops competing just because you missed the postseason. Not only is there satisfaction in playing the spoiler, but rolling over could unfairly help your competition advance over a more deserving foe. Remember, there’s no “I” in fantasy, but there is in “weenie.”

Monday, November 28, 2011

Week 12 Heroes & Zeros

This was a great week to start…

QBs
Drew Brees, Saints – Tossed 4 TD passes with his 363 yards and ran in another TD from 8 yards out; all without a turnover.
Tom Brady, Patriots – Did his thing with 361 yards, 3 TDs, no turnovers and even added 28 rushing yards.
Matt Ryan, Falcons – Passed for 262 yards and a trio of TDs.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills – Returned to form with 264 passing yards and 3 TDs, plus 34 rushing yards.
Mark Sanchez, Jets – Tossed 4 TD passes with his 180 yards, plus an INT.

RBs
Beanie Wells, Cardinals – Rumbled for 228 yards and a TD in a career day.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers – Made a rare appearance on the highlight reel with 69 yards and 2 TD runs.
Roy Helu, Redskins – Ran for 108 yards and a TD and caught 7 passes for 54 yards.
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – Rushed for 111 yards and added a 20-yard TD catch.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots – Only ran for 44 yards, but scored twice.

WRs
Victor Cruz, Giants – Packed on the stats while playing catchup, finishing with 9 receptions for 157 yards and 2 TDs.
Wes Welker, Patriots – Returned to the elites with 8 catches for 115 yards and 2 TDs.
Laurent Robinson, Cowboys – Scored twice while catching 7 passes for 79 yards.
Lance Moore, Saints – Had 5 catches for 54 yards and 2 TDs.
Roddy White, Falcons – Reeled in 10 balls for 120 yards and a TD.
Johnny Knox, Bears – Only 4 receptions, but posted 145 yards and a score.

TEs
Jimmy Graham, Saints – Posted 5 catches for 84 yards and a pair of scores.
Dustin Keller, Jets – Caught 4 passes for 61 yards and 2 TDs.

Ks
Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders – Nailed field goals of 19, 37, 40, 42, 44 and 47 yards.

This was a great week to play against…

QBs
Alex Smith, 49ers – Only 140 passing yards without a score, plus an INT.
Carson Palmer, Raiders – Passed for 301 yards and an INT, without a score.

RBs
Chris Ogbannaya, Browns – Ran for 16 yards and caught a 4-yard pass now that Peyton Hillis has returned.
James Starks, Packers – Just 19 rushing yards before leaving early again.
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins – Gained 25 yards on the ground while playing second fiddle to Reggie Bush.
Frank Gore, 49ers – Managed 39 rushing yards and a 9-yard catch.

WRs
Julio Jones, Falcons – Posted a goose egg.
Sidney Rice, Seahawks – So did he.
Braylon Edwards, 49ers – Caught a 5-yard pass.
Nate Washington, Titans – Just a 12-yard catch on the day.
Mike Wallace, Steelers – Held to just 17 yards on 2 passes.
Andre Johnson, Texans – Limited to 2 catches for 22 yards in his long-awaited return.
Torrey Smith, Ravens – His 2 receptions were good for 23 yards.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers – He posted 25 yards on his 2 catches.
Jordy Nelson, Packers – Only 26 yards on 4 catches.
Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Held to 3 receptions for 35 yards.

Wake me up when November ends

It may have been the lingering effects of my tryptophan overdose, but I had some strange visions over the weekend.

I could have sworn I saw Jason Witten go out of his way to tackle a cheerleader on Thanksgiving.

Someone told me Percy Harvin returned a kickoff 104 yards, but they must have been yanking my chain since it didn’t register any fantasy points for the Vikings special teams or Harvin.

Is it true that Texans fans are actually disappointed that Matt Leinart is no longer leading their team?

Isn’t Kiln, Mississippi, a short drive from Houston?

I thought I saw a boneheaded receiver shoot himself in the foot while pretending to shoot himself in the thigh. Maybe Stevie Johnson should concentrate on catching more touchdown passes so he doesn’t need to double- and triple-up on the celebrations.

I heard Terrell Owens’ agent say one team was “very interested” in his client’s services. And I thought I was the one hallucinating…

I watched Pitbull perform last Thursday in Dallas. But I thought the Eagles had a home game.

Shouldn’t Tim Tebow’s rushing stats count double since he’s actually running on water?

The economy must have recovered when I wasn’t paying attention. How else can you explain that Tyler Palko, Curtis Painter, Blaine Gabbert and John Skelton all have high-paying jobs?

“Orakpo” really isn’t another word for “sack.” I looked it up.

The 49ers are 9-2 and Alex Smith is still the quarterback. Am I being punked?

And I suppose you expect me to believe that Mark Sanchez really threw four touchdown passes Sunday.

Wasn’t Andre Johnson due back this week?

I just noticed the Patriots have another bye next weekend. That’s not fair.

How could Troy Polamalu suffer a concussion with all that extra padding?

Was that Beanie Wells I saw running under the Gateway Arch? Someone needs to tell him the game is over now.

I don’t wanna be anywhere nearby when the next Suh falls.

I could have sworn I saw DeAngelo Williams celebrating in the end zone – twice! As if…

Was that “Little Nick” Novak I saw warming up on the sideline?

How is it that Laurent Robinson was expendable in San Diego, St. Louis and Atlanta, but indispensable in Dallas?

I saw the Chiefs score a touchdown. Okay, now you know I’m joking.


FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bills. Maybe we gave up on him too early. After his 264-yard, three-touchdown outing against the Jets – which should have included a fourth scoring strike – Fitzpatrick finally returned to the form that made him a fantasy star at the season’s onset. With a favorable schedule ahead, and passers dropping like flies across the league, he’s worth adding if he’s available.

Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots. Looking for a tailback to stash away on your bench for your postseason run? Consider Vereen, who is slowly working his way into New England’s backfield rotation. The rookie is arguably the most talented back on the team, and he could emerge from obscurity next weekend against the woeful Colts.

Johnny Knox, WR, Bears. If Earl Bennett is the loser in the Caleb Hanie-led air attack, Knox looks like the winner. The young speedster was targeted 10 times Sunday and finished with 145 yards and a score. Knox will have a chance to keep up the good work given Chicago’s soft schedule down the stretch.

Don’t be fooled

Jackie Battle, RB, Chiefs. It’s hard to release any starting running back; but when he posts three consecutive games with single-digit carries for a team that has scored one touchdown in its past four games, it’s time to say goodbye. Battle’s running mates don’t belong anywhere near your roster, either.

Jason Avant, WR, Eagles. If not for his three receptions for 24 yards and a touchdown on the final, garbage-time drive, Avant wouldn’t even have registered on your fantasy radar. The career backup benefited from DeSean Jackson’s benching, New England’s porous secondary and Vince Young’s career day – a perfect storm that is unlikely to strike again soon.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Sunday morning updates -- Week 12

Good morning, Fools. It's getting chilly here in DFW, but the sun is out and all is well in Fantasyland.

I'm still grieving over the loss of my beloved Dolphins on Thanks-giving here in Dallas. The recovery process has been especially long since I am surrounded by evil Cowboys fans (not including my daughter, who at least felt my pain after Dan Bailey's winning kick), but I'm ready to soldier on with my fantasy teams today. I hope you are, too. Here's the news you can use...

The following have already been ruled out: Adrian Peterson, Michael Vick, Kevin Kolb and Ahmad Bradshaw. Not that it matters, but so has Chad Ochocinco (hamstring).

LT will sit out another game, leaving the Jets backfield to Shonn Greene and the up-and-coming Joe McKnight.

I'm not a fan of the Patriots backfield, mostly because there are too many good-not-great options. And now it sounds like another back will be added to the rotation, if Bill Belichick is to be believed (and usually, he isn't). Shane Vereen is slated for more action beginning today. The rookie is arguably the most explosive of the bunch, so he would be worth keeping an eye on. If you have a bench slot open for fresh legs that could be useful down the stretch, Vereen is someone to consider.

I'll be watching CJ Spiller closely today. This is his chance to finally live up to his first-round expectations.

Look for a 3-headed backfield in Cleveland today, with the expected return of Peyton Hillis. Hardesty and Ogbannaya will remain in the mix, too, against a stout Bengals run defense. If you didn't like them before, you've gotta hate 'em now.

Andre Johnson finally returns for the Texans. Unfortunately, he'll have to track down balls from Matt Leinart. I would probably start him if I owned him, but I wouldn't expect very good returns in his first game back in weeks.

AJ Green and Julio Jones are expected to play as well.

That's it for now. Make sure you're following me on Twitter (@ladd_biro) for all the inactives and other late-breaking news. Good luck, Fools!

Friday, November 25, 2011

Friday updates

Here are a few snippets from my column for today's Sporting News Fantasy Source.

Looks like one more week of rest for Ahmad Bradshaw, who is still not practicing on his injured foot. Brandon Jacobs will continue to carry the load against the Saints on Monday night.

Shonn Green (rib) is expected to suit up against the Bills on Sunday. But so is Joe McKnight, who fared well as a runner and receiver after being pressed into duty against the Broncos last week. With LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) also on the mend, this backfield is probably one worth avoiding in Week 12.

Ryan Mathews’ fortunes have dipped along with his team’s performance. He hasn’t scored since Week 3, he fumbled twice in the Week 11 loss and he can’t seem to shake the injury bug. A persistently sore knee has him iffy for Sunday’s matchup against an improving Denver defense that has allowed the third-fewest rushing scores in the NFL. Leave him on your bench this week, even if he suits up.

Stevie Johnson is playing with a bum shoulder, which has contributed to a two-game slump in which he’s managed only four catches for 24 total yards. Think twice before starting him on Revis Island.

A.J. Green is expected to return from his knee injury, but he’ll be shadowed by Joe Haden. That said, Haden doesn’t yet have a clever nickname, so Green is worth a gamble in your starting lineup if he’s active. Be sure you’re following my tweets (@ladd_biro) for all the pre-game inactive reports and other late-breaking news.

Fellow rookie Julio Jones (hamstring) is also expected back for the tasty matchup with the Vikings.

Jeremy Maclin will likely miss another game with his hamstring and shoulder injuries. Look for another start from Riley Cooper, who is a reasonable flex candidate due to his strong rapport with Young and the favorable matchup with the Patriots.

Tyler Palko is set to start in Week 12, but it’s probably more of a favor to Kyle Orton that the team is throwing Palko to the wolves (a.k.a., Steelers) instead of their new acquisition. Expect Orton to get the starting nod in Week 13 against his old friends in Chicago.