It’s the time of year
when fantasy enthusiasts obsess over draft order and which players will be
available when the clock begins ticking on that fateful first-round pick. Antonio
or Odell? Gurley or Gronk? Adrian or Zeke?
As important as your
initial selection can be, it pales in comparison to the handful of choices
you’ll make several rounds later. After all, as happy as you may be to
land Todd Gurley, DeAndre Hopkins or David Johnson now, they won’t be the
bargains they were last year for the savvy players that stole them in the
mid-rounds (or later) and rode them into the postseason.
Fantasy veterans know
the secret to great drafting is not simply choosing the best players available,
but doing so no earlier than necessary. You may share my belief that Tyler
Lockett is on the verge of a breakout season; but you’re hurting yourself –
and, worse yet, begging for ridicule from your opponents – if you pull the
trigger too early.
Who are this year’s
hidden gems? Let’s take a
look at my Sleeper Picks of 2016, broken down by position.
Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals. Despite his stellar – and fully upright – 2015
campaign, Palmer is still undervalued, mostly because we all know how brittle
he is. Yet he has played in no less than 15 games in three of the last four
seasons, and he is armed with arguably the most lethal WR corps in the league
and a sure-handed receiver in RB David Johnson who is drawing comparisons to
Marshall Faulk.
Derek Carr,
QB, Raiders. Carr showed the kind of year-over-year improvement you want from a
second-year player in 2015, and he’s poised to make another leap this season.
In addition to having all the physical skills and intangibles of a franchise
QB, he’ll be teaming again with emerging superstar Amari Cooper, a rejuvenated
Michael Cooper and promising TE Clive Walford. Carr could make a push for the
elite ranks and offers tremendous value as a QB2 in the middle-to-late rounds.
Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers. Throughout
the NFL’s storied history, only Andrew Luck and Cam Newton have passed for more
yards in their first season than Winston did last year (4,042). And only Newton
notched more than the rookie’s six rushing TDs in 2015. After spending the
offseason building rapport with Mike Evans, and with Vincent Jackson returning
to health, Winston is primed to take the next step into fantasy stardom.
Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens. Though he’s on the wrong side of 30, Forsett is
still a relatively low-mileage veteran because he was used so sparingly over
the first six years of his career. After losing the final six games of 2015 to
a broken forearm, he appears to be flying below the radar. But Forsett is
drawing raves in training camp and none of the inexperienced backs behind him
is a threat to his workhorse role. He’s going off the board after guys like
Melvin Gordon, T.J. Yeldon, Charles Sims and Isaiah Crowell, and that’s just nuts.
Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers. Woodhead finished the 2015 season as a Top 12
fantasy back, thanks mostly to his stellar receiving skills. I have serious
doubts about Gordon being the workhorse back San Diego drafted him to be, which
means Woodhead should continue to play a key role in the Chargers’ offense –
especially around the goal-line and on third downs. PPR leaguers should not let
him slide too far.
Ryan Mathews,
RB, Eagles. Mathews made DeMarco Murray expendable, and now he’ll be counted
upon as the bell cow in Philly’s new offense. Mathews had some fantasy success
in San Diego and will have the opportunity to replicate that this season. Now
recovered from a pre-camp ankle injury, he offers nice upside as an RB2 or RB3.
James White,
RB, Patriots. Drafting a New England RB can make you crazy, but it has its
occasional benefits. With Dion Lewis (knee) out for an extended period, White
will see a significant increase in touches, especially as a receiver. He could
be a late-round PPR gem.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks. Doug
Baldwin grabbed all the headlines late last year, but Lockett likewise came
into his own during the stretch run of his rookie season. His head coach loves
his breakaway speed and versatility and has vowed to make him an integral cog
in Seattle’s offense this year. Lockett is arguably the most talented receiver in
Seattle and he could easily supplant Baldwin as the apple of Russell Wilson’s
eye.
Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts. In his
sophomore season, Moncrief led the team in
receiving TDs and he was working his way onto the fantasy radar when Andrew
Luck’s injuries grounded the Colts’ passing attack. Moncrief will start
opposite T.Y. Hilton and, assuming Luck returns to elite form, he could prove
to be as valuable as his more-heralded teammate.
Kevin White,
WR, Bears. The 7th-overall draft pick of 2015 never saw the field
after undergoing surgery on his injured shin. Now 100% healthy and as fast as
ever, he’ll see single coverage opposite Alshon Jeffery, making him a prime
target for Jay Cutler. He has Top 20 WR potential, but is hanging around two to
three rounds longer than he should.
Bruce Ellington, WR, 49ers. Many are predicting a bounce-back year from Torrey
Smith, but Ellington is the receiver that has been most in sync with likely
starter Blaine Gabbert. I’m certainly not anticipating anything near elite
production from any Niner wideout, but Ellington should be targeted frequently
and could be a solid late-round flier, especially in PPR leagues.
Rishard Matthews, WR, Titans. Dorial
Green-Beckham is now an Eagle and Kendall Wright can’t seem to stay healthy. Enter
Matthews, who flashed enough promise last year as a Dolphin that the Titans now
have him listed at the top of their depth chart. He’s a big-play threat with
significant upside that can be scooped up near the end of most drafts.
Dwayne
Allen, TE, Colts. He’s been injury-prone for most of
his career and has had to share tight end duties with Coby Fleener. But now
that Fleener is a Saint, Allen should see a big uptick in targets in Indy’s
high-octane offense. Draft him as your backup TE and you could get TE1
production.
Jaguars defense/special
teams. Every year, a defensive unit comes out of nowhere to become a fantasy
powerhouse. Jacksonville, a perennial doormat, could very well be that team in
2016. They’ve added a tremendous amount of talent – both through free agency
and the draft – and they’ll finally get to see their 2015 first-round-pick, DE
Dante Fowler, Jr., on the field. If you choose to pass up the elite defenses,
grab the Jags in the last round or two and watch them roar.
Next Monday: My oft-imitated, always controversial, yet magically delicious
Perfect Draft.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment