Second Mock Draft of the Season with the Sporting News Experts

Just completed the second of three Expert Mock Drafts with my friends at Sporting News. The first, conducted in late May, appears in the 2010 edition of SN's Fantasy Football Draft Guide, available on newsstands everywhere.

This go-round, I had the 8th overall pick in the 12-team league, which will not be played out. Our next one, scheduled for August 11, is for all the marbles.

Here's the team I drafted, with some commentary:

Round 1. Andre Johnson -- Even though Brees was still available (the man I took with the 5th pick in May), I decided to take the #1 WR on everybody's board here instead and wait on my QB. (Already gone: CJ, AP, Rice, MJD, Gore, Turner, DeAngelo)
Rd 2. Ryan Matthews -- Still love this pick in the 2nd round. The next five RBs off the board were Jamaal Charles, Pierre Thomas, LeSean McCoy, Beanie and Addai. Call me crazy, but I want the workhorse of the Chargers offense over any of those guys, as good as they are.
Rd 3. Philip Rivers -- This is why I passed on Brees. Also had my choice of Schaub and Brady, who went in the next three picks. Didn't think about it at the time, but I'm putting a lot of faith in the SD offense this year. Even without V-Jax (for some or all the season), I love their chances, and their schedule.
Rd 4. Cedric Benson -- He was an early second-round pick a couple months ago, but he slid big-time due to his off-field issues. I'm betting he puts those behind him before the season begins. Which is easy to do in a mock draft...
Rd 5. Mike Sims-Walker -- It's amazing how quickly the talent pool drops off at WR, but he could turn out to be an excellent WR2. (Or not.)
Rd 6. Tony Gonzalez -- The first TE taken was Dallas Clark at the end of Round 4. Gonzo in the 6th looks good to me, but I was hoping for Jermichael Finley, who went one pick earlier.
Rd 7. Wes Welker -- The news lately has been very encouraging about Welker returning for the season opener (or not long after). This is clearly a "swing for the fences" pick. In the 7th round, it's a gamble worth taking.
Rd 8. Ahmad Bradshaw -- Not a bad RB3. Not a great RB3 either. Plenty of upside, though, if he can stay healthy.
Rd 9. TJ Houshmandzadeh -- Past his prime and in a pretty lousy offense. But I like his chances as my WR4.
Rd 10. Jets DST -- With nobody on the board that whet my whistle, I went with the "best available player" and started the run on DSTs. No doubt someone else would have pulled the trigger before it came back to me, as Round 10 is already pretty late. This pick also showed that starting the run on a position can work to your benefit, as five of the next 12 picks were DSTs. The only player I had been seriously eyeing that was gone before my next pick was Derrick Mason. I can live with that.
Rd 11. Tim Hightower -- He's still listed as the Cards' starting RB. While I certainly don't think it will stay that way, Hightower clearly has some value. And if Beanie gets bit by the injury bug (as he always does), he could come in very handy. (Also considered Thomas Jones and Larry Johnson here.)
Rd 12. Jerricho Cotchery -- WR options getting very thin.
Rd 13. Donnie Avery -- Thinner.
Rd 14. Bernard Scott -- Cedric Benson insurance.
Rd 15. Mark Sanchez -- I only need him one weekend; but with all the firepower around him, I may even be tempted to use him when Rivers has tough matchups.
Rd 16. Mason Crosby -- The top fantasy K on many expert boards, and a Week 10 bye.
Rd 17. Jeremy Shockey -- Pretty salty backup TE.

Overall, I like what I've got. I took some risks that could easily go either way, but in general, I think this team could be very competitive.

What do you think?

Sporting News' 2010 Fantasy Draft Guide is here!

If it's late June, it must be time for Sporting News' annual Fantasy Football Draft Guide, which means it's almost time for training camp, which means it's almost time for a Bengal to get arrested, which means it's almost time for preseason football, which means it's almost time for the fantasy draft!

[Note that I originally wrote the above paragraph on June 22. Just like clockwork, Cedric Benson was arrested for assault on June 29. Would be funny if not so sad. Okay, it's a little funny too.]

This year's edition, which features Chris Johnson and Drew Brees (my first-round pick) on the cover, is chock full of great fantasy advice from the expert writers at Sporting News. Most important, of course, is the complete 17-round Experts' Mock Draft in which the Chief Fool had the 5th overall pick (my full draft is recounted in the post below).

Check out all 150 pages of analysis, cheatsheets, projections and stats to help you dominate your league this season. You can find the magazine at most newsstands, airports, etc.

My first mock draft of the 2010 season

Can you believe it's already mock draft time?

Okay, that's a stretch. But I really did participate in one yesterday for Sporting News' 2010 Fantasy Football Owners Manual, which comes out in June. Admittedly, I'm not yet in full fantasy mode, but it was fun getting my feet wet again. No doubt by the time the guide is published, I'll be regretting some of my picks; but perhaps others that I question now will look brilliant.

I don't want to scoop the issue, but I thought I'd share my first draft class of the 2010 season with the Fools Nation. Feel free to offer your critiques in the comments section below.

I had the 5th overall pick in a 12-team standard-scoring league that starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST. Here are the results:

Round 1: Drew Brees, QB, Saints. The four elite RBs (CJ, AP, MJD, Rice) were gone. Considered S-Jax, Turner, DeAngelo and Andre Johnson, but felt I needed to grab an elite QB instead. I've drafted with my fellow Sporting News experts for years, so I knew Brees, Rodgers, Peyton and Rivers would be gone by my second pick, especially if I started the run. Should I have taken a RB and settled for Romo in Rd 3 or even Schaub in Rd 4? That's a legit question.

Rd. 2: Ryan Matthews, RB, Chargers (above). Yeah, I went there. In retrospect, he may have been there next round -- judging by the reactions of my competitors -- but my other plan was Reggie Wayne, and he ended up slipping. I believe Matthews will be the workhorse and goal-line back for the Chargers from Day One, and to me, that makes him a better option than Moreno, Beanie, Jamaal Charles, Pierre and Forte, who were also available. Barring an injury, Matthews is all but a lock as a Top 10 fantasy back in his rookie year.

Rd. 3: Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts. Can't believe a sure thing like Reggie slid this far. Very happy with this pick. Also like that my first three picks play for Super Bowl contenders.

Rd. 4: Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins. Really like this value. When healthy, Ronnie has been an outstanding fantasy back. The addition of Brandon Marshall should open up even more holes for him this year, as he plays for a new contract.

Rd. 5: Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers. Might regret taking him when Witten and Gates were still available, but Davis is coming off a breakout season and there's no reason to think he'll slide backwards under Mike Singletary's gaze. He was the 2nd TE off the board (after Dallas Clark), but five more were gone by the time I picked again. Always nice to get on the front end of a run.

Rd. 6: Santana Moss, WR, Redskins. The WR pickins were already pretty slim at this point. Banking on a love connection between Moss and McNabb.

Rd. 7: Ben Tate, RB, Texans. Another rookie RB stepping into a great situation. Won't be the least bit surprised to see him as the opening day starter on a high-octane offense.

Rd. 8: Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets. I had to pinch my nose on this one. Shied away from Santonio due to suspension concerns, and he went on the next pick. Cotchery lasted 4 more rounds.

Rd. 9: Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals. Really wanted Kevin Kolb, and should have taken him instead of Braylon. Unfortunately, he was scooped up just before this pick, leaving me with Palmer as my backup. Will he bounce back this year? Not betting on it; just need him to perform well during Brees' bye.

Rd. 10: Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins. How the mighty have fallen. With Fast Willie and Larry Johnson also in the picture, I guess it makes sense for the oft-injured Portis to slide. Nevertheless, he sure seems worth a 10th rounder.

Rd. 11: Kenny Britt, WR, Titans. He was sticking out like a sore thumb on my cheatsheet, having been passed over repeatedly for other WRs further down the list. I haven't drafted, or wanted, a TEN WR since Derrick Mason's heyday. But I need bodies, and he was surprisingly effective at times as a rookie.

Rd. 12: Vikings D/ST. I had them ranked #2 at the position, but four others went earlier. Love this value, especially since you get Percy Harvin in the package.

Rd. 13: Devin Hester, WR, Bears. I was eyeing Donnie Avery, but he went two picks earlier. Almost took a flier on T.O. here, but thought I could wait a bit longer. Someone pulled the trigger six picks later.

Rd. 14: Devery Henderson, WR, Saints. I'll probably start him all the wrong weeks, as usual.

Rd. 15: Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos. Honestly, I was out of ideas at this point. It was him or a kicker.

Rd. 16: Ryan Longwell, K, Vikings. Got the guy I wanted anyway. Second K off the board, after Kaeding.

Rd. 17: Brian Westbrook, RB, Free Agent. Not a bad last-round flier, if you ask me. He'll latch on somewhere, like St. Louis, and will be just an injury away from being a nice fill-in.

There you have it. Not exactly Perfect Draft material yet. But I didn't have much time to warm up.

Your thoughts?

Offseason roster moves of note

Greetings, Fools. Miss me? I'm definitely still in withdrawal from the fantasy season and already looking forward to the NFL Draft.

I thought the best service I could provide during the interminable offseason would be to keep a running log of all the roster moves of note. I'll update this post as necessary. Also, feel free to alert me if I've missed anything important. I'll try to stay vigilant, but something might slip by me.

As of August 31, the following players have switched teams via trade or free agency, have retired or have been released:

Quarterbacks
Donovan McNabb -- Traded by Eagles to division rival Redskins. I did not see that coming.
Kurt Warner -- Retired from Cardinals. (Fitz weeps; Boldin takes one look at Leinart and packs for Baltimore)
Ben Roethlisberger -- Will sit for first six games of the season for off-field transgressions. On very thin ice in Pittsburgh.
Jake Delhomme -- Cut by Panthers. Signed by Browns.
Marc Bulger -- Released by Rams. Signed by Ravens.
Byron Leftwich -- Traded by Bucs to Steelers as Big Ben insurance.
Brett Favre -- He's baaaaaaaaaaaaack.......
Brady Quinn -- Traded to Broncos for Peyton Hillis and a pack of smokes.
Jason Campbell -- Traded from Redskins to Raiders.
JaMarcus Russell -- Released by Raiders. Finally.
A.J. Feeley -- Signed by Rams.
Derek Anderson -- Released by Browns. Signed by Cardinals.
Shaun Hill -- Traded to Lions.
Jim Sorgi -- Signed by Giants, stuck behind yet another Manning.
David Carr -- Signed by 49ers to backup Alex Smith.
Seneca Wallace -- Signed by Browns, presumably to compete with Brady Quinn.
Charlie Whitehurst -- Traded to Seahawks. Will backup Hasselbeck, wouldn't be surprised to see him start some games in '10.
Daunte Culpepper -- Set free by Lions. Close to signing with CFL.
Kyle Boller -- Signed by Raiders.
Rex Grossman -- Signed by Redskins.
Chris Simms -- Released by Broncos. Signed by Titans.
J.P. Losman -- Signed by Seahawks.
Mark Brunell -- Signed by Jets to back up Sanchez.
Patrick Ramsey -- Signed by Saints to back up Brees.

Running Backs
LaDainian Tomlinson -- Released by Chargers. Signed by Jets.
Brian Westbrook -- Released by Eagles. Finally signed by 49ers to back up Frank Gore.
Thomas Jones -- Released by Jets. Signed by Chiefs.
Larry Johnson -- Signed by Redskins.
Fast Willie Parker -- Signed by Redskins. Mike Shanahan now has an outstanding RBBC with which to tormet fantasy owners.
Chester Taylor -- Signed by Bears. Will now be handcuff to Forte, not AP.
LenDale White -- Traded from Titans to Seahawks. Subsequently and unceremoniously released by Seahawks. Signed by Broncos. Faces four-week suspension to begin season for substance abuse issues (in other words, he's a "camp body" while Knowshon heals).
Leon Washington -- Traded from Jets to Seahawks.
Mike Bell -- Signed by Eagles.
Jamal Lewis -- Released by Browns. Apparently reconsidering retirement plans.
The Other Adrian Peterson -- Signed by Seahawks.
Peyton Hillis -- Traded to Browns.
LaMont Jordan -- Released by Broncos. Will play for food.
Ladell Betts -- Released by Redskins. Signed by Saints to replace injured Lynell Hamilton.
Derrick Ward -- Released by Bucs.
Rock Cartwright -- Also released by Redskins.
Glen Coffee -- Announced that he is walking away from football. Guess he didn't see much future in Frank Gore's shadow.
Quinton Ganther -- Signed by Seahawks.
Justin Fargas -- Released by Raiders, which has to be embarrassing. Picked up by Broncos, whose backfield is decimated by injuries. Released again.
Chad Simpson -- Waived by Colts.
J.J. Arrington -- Traded by Broncos to Eagles.
Ryan Torain -- Signed by Redskins.
Chris Brown -- Released by Broncos.
Cedric Peerman -- Signed by Bengals.
Ryan Moats -- Released by Texans. Signed by Vikings. Released by Vikings.
Samkon Gado -- Signed by Titans.
Kolby Smith -- Released by Chiefs. Signed by Broncos. Waived by Broncos.
Dantrell Savage -- Signed by Panthers.
Aaron Stecker -- Announced his retirement from the Saints.

Wide Receivers
Anquan Boldin -- Traded from Cards to Ravens.
Brandon Marshall -- Traded from Broncos to Dolphins.
Santonio Holmes -- Traded from Steelers to Jets. He must serve a four-game suspension to begin the '10 season for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy.
Terrell Owens -- Finally lands with Bengals.
Ted Ginn -- Traded from Dolphins to 49ers.
Nate Burleson -- Signed by Lions.
Antonio Bryant -- Signed by Bengals. Released injured.
Donte Stallworth -- Signed by Ravens.
Torry Holt -- Signed by Patriots. Injured in the preseason and placed on IR, signaling his likely retirement.
Laveranues Coles -- Released by Bengals. Signed by Jets, then released.
Jerheme Urban -- Signed by Chiefs.
Antwaan Randle El -- Released by Redskins, returns to Steelers.
Reggie Brown -- Traded from Eagles to Bucs.
Greg Camarillo -- Traded from Dolphins to Vikings.
Bobby Engram -- Signed by Browns.
Reggie Williams -- Signed by Seahawks after being out of the league for a year. Later released by Seahawks.
Mike Williams -- Also signed by Seahawks at the behest of his former coach at USC, Pete Carroll (now Seattle's HC). This Williams has been out of action for two years, and was considered a colossal bust. Good luck with that, Pete.
Javon Walker -- Waived by Raiders. Signed by Vikings.
Arnaz Battle -- Signed by Steelers.
Matt Jones -- Signed by Bengals.
Kelley Washington -- Signed by Eagles.
Kevin Curtis -- Released by Eagles.
Muhsin Muhammad -- Released by Panthers. Retired.
Domenik Hixon -- Waived by Giants, after landing on IR with torn ACL.
Isaac Bruce -- Retired after signing one-day ceremonial contract with the Rams.
Hank Baskett -- Signed by Eagles, his former team, after a brief stint with the Colts.
Joey Galloway -- Signed by Redskins.
Bobby Wade -- Also signed by Redskins.
Mark Bradley -- Signed by Saints.
Ruvell Martin -- Signed by Seahawks.
Brandon Jones -- Released by the 49ers. And the crowd says "Zzzzzz." Signed by Seahawks.
Limas Sweed -- Put on IR by Steelers and lost for the '10 season.

Tight Ends
Ben Watson -- Signed by Browns.
Alge Crumpler -- Signed by Patriots. Becomes fantasy relevant again?
Randy McMichael -- Signed by Chargers. Will disappear behind Gates.
Chris Baker -- Released by Patriots. Signed by Seahawks.
Tony Scheffler -- Traded from Broncos to Lions.
Alex Smith -- Signed by Browns.
Brandon Manumaleuna -- Signed by Bears.
Derek Fine -- Released by Bills, making Shawn Nelson a lock as the team's '10 starter. Now they just need to find a QB.
Steve Heiden -- Released by Browns.

Kickers
Nick Folk -- Signed one-year deal with Jets.
Jay Feely -- Signed with Cardinals.
Neil Rackers -- Signed with Texans. Will compete for gig with incumbent Kris Brown.
Shayne Graham -- Signed with Ravens.
Mike Nugent -- Signed with Bengals. Will compete with Dave Rayner.
Shaun Suisham -- Signed by Browns while Phil Dawson holds out. Subsequently released by Browns. Signed by Rams while Josh Brown (hip) recuperates.
Jason Elam -- Announced his retirement.
Justin Medlock -- Released by Redskins. Signed by Lions, then released again.

Chief Fool a finalist for best humor article

I thought you'd like to know that one of my columns is a finalist for "Fantasy Humor Article of the Year" in the annual Fantasy Sports Writers Association Awards.

What? You're surprised there's an association for fantasy writers? Yeah, I was too a couple years back. But I guess we shouldn't be. After all, there's an association for everything, including other associations!

I'm not certain which column is up for the award since I don't know which of my publication clients nominated me, but I'm guessing it's my Real Men of Genius spoof from October 2.

Anyway, I figured I'd better let you know now in case I don't win! The Awards will be presented at the FSWA's national conference in Vegas on January 26th. I won't be there, but I've asked Steve Martin to accept on my behalf.

2009 Biro's Heroes & Zeros Awards

Before we begin another interminable fantasy offseason, we have one bit of unfinished business left to handle. After all, it’s the awards season across this great land of ours, and that pasty-skinned guy from Twilight shouldn’t suck up all the attention.

So let’s take a quick stroll back through 2009 to examine the players we rooted for and against and – with as much objectivity as we can muster – give credit where credit is due.

Our annual accolades have but a few important criteria:

1. Consistency on a weekly basis is next to godliness.
2. Performances during the fantasy playoffs – for our purposes, NFL Weeks 14 through 16 – are given extra weight. Players who let their owners down at the worst possible time earn our eternal scorn. (Hear that, Aaron Rodgers?)
3. Week 17 performances are disregarded since most fantasy leagues hold their Super Bowl in Week 16, per the wishes of the late, great Pete Rozelle. Except where otherwise noted, all statistics quoted are through Week 16.
4. As always, I’m open to your feedback on these awards, including those that cause you heartburn. Feel free to email me, and be sure to begin your message with “You are an idiot because…”

Without further ado, I am pleased to present the 2009 Biro’s Heroes & Zeros Awards:

Most Valuable Player: Chris Johnson, RB, Titans. Any one of the top four or five QBs would have given you stellar performance most weeks, but Johnson soared above the competition at fantasy football's most indispensable position. Runner-up: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts.

“Peerless Price Memorial” Bust of the Year: Matt Forte, RB, Bears. The consensus top-five draft pick followed up his sensational rookie season with four lousy touchdowns and one, count ‘em, one 100-yard rushing performance. He was so inept that most of his owners refused to start him down the stretch. Runner-up: Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants.

Surprise of the Year: Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys. It’s safe to say that even his own team was surprised by Austin’s breakout season. Despite the obvious need for new blood following Terrell Owens’ departure, Smilin’ Miles was a bit player until an injury to Roy Williams opened the door in Week 5. Runner-up: Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers.

Mr. Big Play: DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles. He made news in Week 15 by scoring on a 19-yard pass, his first touchdown of the season spanning fewer than 35 yards. Jackson amassed 11 total TDs as a receiver, runner and returner, eight of which covered more than half the field. Runner-up: Robert Meachem, WR, Saints.

Rookie of the Year: Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings. It didn’t take him long to get in sync with Brett Favre, who connected with the rookie on TD strikes in his first two games. Much like Jackson, Harvin was a three-dimensional threat. Only severe migraines slowed him down. Runner-up: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos.

Comeback Player of the Year: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots. Face it. You either avoided Brady due to lingering concerns over his knee injury, or drafted him with your fingers crossed. Though he fell well short of his 50-TD “Tom Terrific” season of 2007, Brady re-joined the elite QB ranks and, most important, he stayed upright all season. Runner-up: Alex Smith, QB, 49ers.

Best Waiver Wire Acquisition: Miles Austin. Those who scooped him up after his coming-out party in Kansas City were rewarded with the No. 3 wideout in Fantasyland. Runner-up: Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs.

Most Devastating Injury Loss: Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins. He amassed 746 combined yards and eight TDs before a foot injury in Week 10 knocked him out for the duration. Since Ricky Williams was already owned in virtually every league, those who didn’t handcuff the backup were left scrambling with few suitable proxies available. Runner-up: Owen Daniels, TE, Texans.

Steal of the Draft: Ray Rice, RB, Ravens. Available as late as the seventh round, Rice was considered a risky pick as part of Baltimore’s three-headed backfield committee. Once he shook off Willis McGahee’s annoying goal-line poaches, Rice emerged as a dual-threat superstar in the mold of the Titans’ Johnson. Runner-up: Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals.

Most Overrated Player: Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals. Despite leading his team to a most unlikely division crown, Palmer posted just one 300-yard game all season, and his multi-TD outings were few and far between. Runner-up: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons.

“Thomas Jones Memorial” Most Underrated Player: Thomas Jones, RB, Jets. I can’t recall ever seeing a fantasy owner celebrate after drafting Jones. In fact, most of us only do so when he slides so far we feel we have no choice. And yet, once again, he quietly performed at an elite level, finishing among the top six fantasy RBs for the second consecutive year. This award shall henceforth bear his name. Runner-up: Donald Driver, WR, Packers.

Made Chicken Salad from Chicken Scratch: Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. Rising above the muck and mire that is the Rams franchise, Jackson somehow remained an elite performer even though his team seemed incapable of penetrating the red zone. Despite playing hurt for much of the season, Jackson proved that greatness can’t be overshadowed even by the worst of circumstances. Runner-up: Jamaal Charles.

Biggest Postseason Disappointment: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. Despite finishing as the top passer in Fantasyland, Rodgers’ unexpected implosion in Week 14 (180 yards, 0 TDs) against the Bears cost countless owners their first-round matchup and a chance to enjoy his fine rebound the following week. Rodgers’ Week 16 performance wasn’t very special, either. Runner-up: Steven Jackson.

Most Spectacular Bench Performance: Jerome Harrison, RB, Browns. He eclipsed Jim Brown’s team record with 286 rushing yards and 3 TDs in Week 15. It’s a shame nobody was starting him. Runner-up: Palmer (233 passing yards, 5 TDs in Week 7).

Lived Up to the Hype: Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers. True, the hype had long ago faded away; but the perennial underachiever finally became the dominant force the 49ers thought they were getting with the sixth overall pick of the 2006 NFL Draft. Runner-up: Favre.

“Frisman Jackson Memorial” Irrational Exuberance Award: Ryan Moats, RB, Texans. Fantasy owners flocked to Moats after his 3-TD, 151-total-yard “breakout” performance in Week 8, then realized they bought a big bag of nothing when he returned to obscurity immediately thereafter. Runner-up: Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Browns.

Worst Sophomore Jinx: Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos. One of the brightest stars of the Class of 2008 was released by most disappointed owners well before Week 6 when he returned both a kickoff and a punt for his only TDs of 2009. Runner-up: Steve Slaton, RB, Texans.

Too Little Too Late: Jay Cutler, QB, Bears. Over the first 15 weeks of the season, Cutler connected on just 19 TD passes, while throwing 25 interceptions. He tried to erase those bitter memories by passing for 549 yards, 8 TDs and just one INT in the final two games. Runner-up: Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens (Week 15).

Team Bust of the Year (aka “They Are Who We Thought They Were”): Oakland Raiders. Bruce Gradkowski got hurt just as he was threatening to become a legitimate fantasy factor. Their top rusher (Michael Bush) ranked 44th among all RBs. No receiver finished among the top 60. Only tight end Zach Miller belonged anywhere near a fantasy roster, albeit on the bench. Just go away, baby. Runner-up: Cleveland Browns.

“Plaxico Burress Memorial” Bonehead of the Year: Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos. He got off on the wrong foot with his new coach by acting like a spoiled brat, then concluded an otherwise impressive season back in the coach’s doghouse. Runner-up: Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs/Bengals.

Most Likely to Succeed in 2010: Jamaal Charles. Beginning in Week 10, Charles went on a rampage that only a handful of elite RBs could match. If Kansas City manages to upgrade its offensive line during the offseason, Charles will be a bona fide first-round draft pick. Runner-up: Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers.

That's it for my weekly columns. I hope they helped you dominate your league this season.

Though daily coverage will be suspended on the Fantasy Fools blog until around the 2010 NFL Draft, I'll be posting off and on throughout the offseason as important developments occur.

Thanks for your loyalty, and we'll be back for another great fantasy season before you know it! Until then, stay healthy and safe.

The Perfect Draft: Final Cut

What? You mean it’s…um…over?

Say it ain’t so!

In fact, the fantasy season can’t be over until we engage in our annual rite of self-flagellation, where we step into the DeLorean, dial up the last week of August 2009, and transport ourselves back to our draft room armed with the mother of all cheatsheets.

That’s right. It’s time to take one last look at what could have been with our highly controversial, often-imitated, never-duplicated Perfect Draft: The Final Cut.

As always, we start with a few key assumptions:

1. We're playing in a 10-team league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker and one team defense;
2. We will draft from the middle (fifth) position in a zig-zag format, meaning Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew won’t be available for our first pick;
3. The preseason average draft position (ADP) of each player – according to multiple mock draft sites canvassed during the last week of August – is used to determine the most valuable selections in each round;
4. Week 17 performances are disregarded – all statistics quoted below cover the first 16 weeks – and production during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14 through 16) is given extra weight, both positively and negatively; and,
5. Since every draft plays out differently, we'll need a little luck along the way.

And finally, in the spirit of truth, justice and the American Way, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2009 Fantasy Draft, we should have selected…

Round 1. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans. Even if AP or MJD were available, Johnson would be the hands-down pick. With 10 consecutive 100-yard games to end the season (11 counting Week 17), the most explosive tailback on the planet channeled some of the legendary, multi-dimensional seasons of Marshall Faulk and Priest Holmes on his way to Fantasy MVP honors.

Round 2. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts. If Andre Johnson or Randy Moss slides to us, we have to take them, and opt for Aaron Rodgers in the next round. Otherwise, Manning offers more week-over-week consistency than the higher-scoring Drew Brees and we’ll avoid the Week 14 implosion of the top-ranked Rodgers.

Round 3. Roddy White, WR, Falcons. He gets the nod over Marques Colston by virtue of his Week 16 heroics. Though White couldn’t keep pace with AJ or Moss, his 1,087 yards and 10 TDs will be welcome on our roster.

Round 4. Chad Ochocinco, WR, Bengals. Wes Welker was the superior pick in point-per-reception leagues, and Vincent Jackson had a better first half of the season. But 85 gets the nod thanks to his stronger finish, including touchdowns over the final four weekends.

Round 5. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets. Rarely spectacular but consistently productive, Thomas delivered 100 yards and/or at least one TD in three out of four games. He wasn’t the sexiest pick in this round. Just the best one.

Round 6. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles. “Mr. Big Play” often racked up more fantasy points on one snap than most wideouts tallied in an entire game. Whether it was as a receiver, a returner or an occasional runner, Jackson provided consistent firepower that was nearly impossible to overcome.

Round 7. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens. Once he shook off Willis McGahee’s nagging goal-line poaches, Rice emerged as a fantasy superstar. Like our first draft pick, he was as lethal receiving as rushing, and rarely had an off game. Matt Schaub likewise offered terrific value in this round.

Round 8. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals. The steal of the draft and an every-week starter until an injury knocked him off stride in Week 10. Benson still deserves a place on our squad.

Round 9. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers. Truth be told, we’ll only need him for Manning’s Week 6 bye and the finale, but Big Ben had several dazzling performances of his own throughout the season.

Round 10. Eagles defense/special teams. The Jets, Saints and Packers offered similar production and were available later or in free agency; but Philly boasted the top-ranked unit in most scoring formats – thanks to 36 takeaways, 39 sacks and DeSean Jackson’s return prowess – so they get the nod.

Round 11. Brett Favre, QB, Vikings. Until his December swoon, the old man was a viable NFL MVP candidate. We’ll scoop him up here – probably a few rounds earlier than necessary – just to keep him off a competitor’s roster.

Round 12. Brent Celek, TE, Eagles. We’ll start the season strong with Celek, then switch to Plan B once we realize our next pick is for real.

Round 13. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers. Though Dallas Clark had more yards, Davis had more TDs and was substantially cheaper. Long after most of us had written him off, the perennial underachiever finally lived up to the hype.

Round 14. Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings. Nobody was happier to see Favre wearing purple than this third-year receiver. While the Giants’ Steve Smith was another fine selection here, especially in PPR leagues, Rice was a delicious treat most Sundays.

Round 15. David Akers, K, Eagles. Though we’d normally prefer to wait until the final round to secure our kicker, we might as well grab the No. 1 guy while he’s available. Besides, we’ll have more fun raising eyebrows with our next two picks.

Round 16. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys. Once he seized a starting job with his masterful Week 5 performance, Smilin’ Miles earned a new nickname and vaulted into the ranks of the elites, finishing as the No. 3 wideout in Fantasyland.

Round 17. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs. I had the good sense to draft him late, but got impatient and waived him before he exploded. Those who jumped on his bandwagon after Larry Johnson was released were richly rewarded down the stretch.

So, how perfect was your draft?

Coming next week: We’ll wrap up the season with the 2009 Biro’s Heroes & Zeros Awards.