Week 1 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Aaron Rodgers and Chris Johnson, or bench Jake Delhomme and Brian Finneran? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for real advice on your starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 1 of the 2010 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears vs. Lions. I have serious doubts about Cutler’s long-term outlook, but not this week. He tossed 4 TDs and no interceptions against Detroit in last season’s finale, and you can bet Mike Martz will be aiming for a similar start this year.

Jerome Harrison, RB, Browns at Buccaneers. He rushed for 561 yards and five TDs in the last three games of the 2009 season. Running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league against last year’s worst run defense, Harrison’s streak of impressive performances should continue.

Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals at Rams. Hightower opens the season as the team’s starting tailback. Beanie Wells should play, but he’s nursing a gimpy knee. Derek Anderson is at the helm. And they’re playing St. Louis’ porous run defense. What more do you need?

Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers at Chiefs. It’s anyone’s guess how long Floyd will be Philip Rivers’ go-to wideout, but he should start off that way in this favorable matchup. Floyd is an imposing red-zone target, and San Diego should be frequent visitors to that area Sunday.

Jabar Gaffney, WR, Broncos at Jaguars. Kyle Orton has been stellar this preseason, while Gaffney has emerged as his favorite target. With concerns about the health of their top rusher, Knowshon Moreno, Denver will seek to exploit the soft Jaguars secondary. Gaffney is in the best position to prosper.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Kyle Orton, Alex Smith; RBs Ryan Mathews, Ronnie Brown, C.J. Spiller, Matt Forte, Arian Foster; WRs Jacoby Jones, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garcon, Terrell Owens, Hakeem Nicks, Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams (TB).

Roll ‘em back

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens at Jets. Everyone’s favorite breakout star (present company excepted) could get off to a rough start against the most stifling defense in the league. While Darrelle Revis may not be completely ready for primetime, he’ll have plenty of help in grounding Baltimore’s upgraded passing attack as the Jets christen their new digs.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles vs. Packers. It’s always hard to bench one of your top backs; but in this case, facing 2009’s best rush defense, it’s your safest call. McCoy has tons of upside this season, but not in this tough matchup.

Justin Forsett, RB, Seahawks vs. 49ers. Seattle’s offense is a wreck, while the 49ers boast a stout run defense. Though Forsett has shown promise, and he will be the starter, Leon Washington will get plenty of carries, too. Neither is a good bet.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jaguars vs. Broncos. Denver brings one of the NFL’s stingiest secondaries into this contest. Champ Bailey will be locked onto Sims-Walker from the outset, so don’t be surprised if the boom-or-bust receiver begins the season with another bust.

Santana Moss, WR, Redskins vs. Cowboys. He has a history of torching the Cowboys, but they haven’t allowed him into the end zone since 2007. Dallas has shut down Donovan McNabb in three consecutive games, and Pro Bowl CB Mike Jenkins will be glued to Moss all night.

More thumbs down: QBs Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck; RBs Joseph Addai, Pierre Thomas, Felix Jones, Clinton Portis, Darren McFadden, all Patriots RBs; WRs Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, all Seahawks WRs.

TAKING A FLIER

Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets vs. Ravens. He had a rough preseason and his best receiver (Santonio Holmes) is suspended, but I still like his chances. The Jets may have trouble running against Baltimore’s solid defensive line, but the Ravens’ secondary is in a shambles. Sanchez will likely be forced to throw often, and the opportunities will be abundant.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…hesitates to start Maurice Jones-Drew this week. There’s been a lot of Internet chatter suggesting that the Jaguars’ best player is hiding the severity of his sore knee, but don’t buy into it. He may not be 100 percent, but he’s better than any other back on your roster and he’s facing one of the league’s worst run defenses from 2009.

My final draft of the season

Had my final draft of the 2010 season earlier tonight. For the first time in several years (actually, I can't ever remember this happening), I had the #1 overall pick.

In a 10-team league, here's what I got:

1. Chris Johnson - Of course
2. Miles Austin - The #2 WR on my board
3. Matt Schaub - Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady gone
4. Anquan Boldin - Great WR2
5. Arian Foster - Finally landed him in a draft
6. Hakeem Nicks - Nice WR3
7. Ahmad Bradshaw - The new starter for the Gmen
8. Visanthe Shiancoe - Finley, Gates, Clark gone before the 6th round
9. Reggie Bush - It's a PPR league, and we have a RB/WR flex, so why not pick a RB/WR hybrid?
10. Mike Williams - Tampa Bay's #1 target
11. Cadillac Williams - Last starting RB on the board
12. Jacoby Jones - You know I love him
13. 49ers D/ST - Best available
14. Alex Smith - Need him one week
15. Neil Rackers - Most top Ks gone; very happy with Houston's man
16. Mike Williams - Auto pick grabbed Seattle's Williams when I dropped out by accident

Not my favorite team ever, but I like my starting lineup. We'll see.

Can't wait for tomorrow night!

Final 2010 positional rankings now posted

My final rankings for fantasy QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Ks, D/STs and the Top 100 are now available here: http://www.scribd.com/my_document_collections/2579156

Check out how far TJ Houshmandzadeh fell, is Vincent Jackson still in the picture, and what about Ahmad Bradshaw?

If you still have a draft, you'll want to check out my final adjustments.

Peterson to labor silently in this fantasy league

Adrian Peterson slid past the first two picks in one of my leagues. He wasn’t even taken in the first round. Or the second. In fact, following our 17-round draft, Peterson remains a free agent. And he’ll stay that way all season.

The Flower Mound Fantasy Football League lost one of its original owners a few months ago. Our buddy Phil, my next-door neighbor, was taken from us far too early, and far too tragically. He left a wife and two young sons behind.

We were determined to honor his memory this year; but a simple dedication didn’t seem sufficient.

Phil was a passionate University of Oklahoma alumnus, and his favorite Sooner of them all was Peterson. Phil refused to call him AP, as most fantasy enthusiasts do, because he knew his true nickname is AD: All Day. When he could, Phil drafted AD. Last year, when his second overall pick wasn’t good enough to bag his prize, he christened his team “Missing AD.”

So, in tribute to our fallen friend, Peterson has been idled for the 2010 campaign – perhaps the only fantasy league on the planet with that distinction. AD’s conspicuous absence will serve as a constant reminder of the real void left by our trash-talking, roster-flipping adversary and comrade.

Rest in peace, Phil. We love you, man.

Last-minute developments of note

As we steam toward Thursday night’s regular-season kickoff, several high-profile players are looking for work or getting familiar with new playbooks. But few of the recent roster moves will cause more than a blip on the fantasy radar, and the biggest domino of them all (Vincent Jackson) has yet to fall. Here are the developments worth tracking.

In a secret basement near Tempe, AZ, work has begun on a plaster image of Matt Leinart in anticipation of his pending enshrinement into the pantheon of all-time NFL busts. Leinart’s unceremonious departure is unlikely to end the Cardinals’ nightmare, especially since he out-played the new starter, Derek Anderson, throughout the preseason. As we’ve warned all offseason, those banking on Larry Fitzgerald are in for a rude awakening.

Sam Bradford was named the Rams' Week 1 starter, in the least surprising announcement of the week. Now all they need is a legitimate receiving threat. (No offense, Laurent Robinson.) I still anticipate Jackson to land here eventually.

Ahmad Bradshaw has been declared the Giants’ starter, which is not sitting well with Brandon Jacobs. Two weeks ago in my “sleepers” column, I told you Bradshaw would out-perform his backfield mate this season, even if he didn’t supplant Jacobs as the starter. That projection looks even better now.

If you were counting on Michael Bush, I’ll start by asking why. Then I’ll tell you to prepare for a possible extended absence, as he could miss three or four weeks due to his broken thumb. Darren McFadden is the only Raider RB worth a spot on your opening day roster.

Deion Branch and Mike Williams are your starting wideouts in Seattle, now that T.J. Houshmandzadeh has been set free. Suddenly, another USC star-turned-bust has fantasy players across the country a-twitter, despite the fact that Williams has just 51 career receptions since he was drafted in 2005 and he hasn’t played in two years. I have no interest in any wideout currently on the rosters in Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis, Seattle or Tennessee.

Baltimore’s signing of Houshmandzadeh could hurt Derrick Mason’s production, but not enough to interest me in Seattle’s castoff. There’s a reason the Seahawks released him, and it’s not because they’re stacked at his position.

Perhaps the most intriguing move of the last few days was Dallas’ trade of Patrick Crayton to the Chargers. Once he gets acclimated, Crayton could force his way into the starting rotation, most likely hindering the development of Legedu Naanee.

I’ve taken some heat for placing Jermichael Finley atop my tight end rankings. Some critics even warned that Spencer Havner would poach red-zone targets from Finley. Now that Green Bay has waived Havner, will you trust me now?

Those of us counting on the Jets defense were relieved by the end to Darrelle Revis’ contract holdout. Will Anquan Boldin be lost on Revis Island on Monday night? Let’s just say I like Boldin’s chances better this week than once the shut-down corner shakes off the rust.

Three key kicking battles were also settled when the Texans chose Neil Rackers, Baltimore picked Billy Cundiff and Mike Nugent prevailed in Cincinnati. All three will be batting clean-up for solid offenses, making them good last-round values if you’re drafting this week.

Thursday night can’t get here soon enough.

And the cuts keep coming

A few more cuts of note today, with Julius Jones the most prominent. Again, no huge surprise here, but it's nice news for owners of Justin Forsett and Leon Washington. I continue to believe a healthy Washington will be the primary ballcarrier in Seattle's offense, but there's little doubt Forsett will also get his fair share of the action. At least they'll both be spared the five or six carries that would have been wasted on Julius.

Former 49ers RB Michael Robinson was picked up by Seattle today, but he's strictly cheap injury insurance.

J.T. O'Sullivan, once an over-hyped fantasy prospect for the 49ers, was released by the Bengals.

Andre Brown was claimed by the RB-challenged Broncos, one day after the Giants cut him.

Cleveland released Chris Jennings.

The Jags gave up on Troy Williamson.

The Lions dumped WR Dennis Northcutt.

Former Dolphins WR Patrick Turner landed with the Jets.

Fantasy flash in the pan David Clowney was cut by the Jets.

And for the few people who thought my projection of Jermichael Finley as the top TE of 2010 was crazy because Spencer Havner would poach some of his red-zone targets, I'm pleased to report that Havner is no longer a Packer. So, thppppppppppppt!

Much ado about nothing

Over the last 24 or so hours, NFL teams have made a number of moves involving fairly high-profile players; but, when the dust all settles, it's surprising how little affect the changes are likely to have on the fantasy landscape this season.

Here are the key moves from the offensive side of the ball:

Matt Leinart was released by Arizona. No big surprise here, given the rumors swirling over the past couple of weeks. This makes Derek Anderson the unchallenged QB in the desert, which is probably better news for Fitz and Breaston than if they were waiting for check-downs from Leinart. But not much better.

Sam Bradford was named the Rams' Week 1 starter, in the least surprising announcement of the day. Why St. Louis doesn't give their franchise QB a real receiver like Vincent Jackson to throw to is beyond me. Laurent Robinson is the best wideout on the roster now, which is just asking for a 1-15 season.

The Vikings traded backup QB Sage Rosenfels to the Giants, where he will now be the #2 behind Eli. And knowing the Manning brothers, Rosenfels will never see the field.

No-longer-fast Willie Parker was released by the Redskins, as expected. I've told you all long that Larry Johnson is the tailback to own in Washington, and this move further supports that. Ryan Torrain was also cut, but the team hopes to re-sign him to the practice squad.

The Gmen released RB Andre Brown, which comes as a mild surprise. Danny Ware is now the understudy to Bradshaw and Jacobs. By the way, Bradshaw appears to be the new starter in New York, which is not sitting well with Jacobs. Again, this development was projected more than a month ago on this blog.

Derrick Ward, fresh off his release by Tampa Bay, was signed by Houston to backup Arian Foster and Steve Slaton.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh was cut outright by Seattle, when they couldn't find a willing trade partner. Mike Williams -- he of the 15 receptions since 2005 -- is now starting alongside Deion Branch. That is one sorry WR corps on paper. We'll soon find out what Pete Carroll sees in the first-round bust out of USC and the former Super Bowl MVP. Methinks V-Jax will be shopping for a home in the Seattle area very shortly. Housh is rumored to be heading for Minnesota, which further complicates that WR rotation.

Perhaps in anticipation of Housh's arrival -- or more likely the result of general suckiness -- the Vikes released Javon Walker.

Dallas traded Patrick Crayton to the Chargers on Friday, which is arguably the most interesting move of them all. Don't be surprised if he works his way into the starting lineup soon, as neither Malcom Floyd nor Legedu Naanee have proven anything during the NFL careers. Crayton is steady and reliable, if unspectacular. Rivers will like him.


Michael Clayton, who flamed out after an awesome rookie season a lifetime ago, was finally cut by Tampa Bay.

James Hardy was dumped by the Bills. Lots of other experts were high on him this season. Not the Fools.

You know Neil Rackers won the kicking competition in Houston. But Shayne Graham came up short in Baltimore (a mild shock), losing out to Billy Cundiff. And Mike Nugent prevailed in Cinci, over Dave Rayner.

Other familiar names now looking for work:

J.P. Losman, QB, Seahawks
Chris Simms, QB, Titans
Patrick Ramsey, QB, Saints
Pat White, QB, Dolphins
Troy Smith, QB, Ravens
Colt Brennan, QB, Raiders
Samkon Gado, RB, Titans
Ladell Betts, RB, Saints
Kolby Smith, RB, Jaguars
Chris Henry, RB, Texans
J.J. Arrington, RB, Eagles
Michael Robinson, RB, 49ers
Brandon Stokley, WR, Broncos
Matt Jones, WR, Bengals
Jason Hill, WR, 49ers
Josh Reed, WR, Chargers
Kelley Washington, WR, Eagles
Chase Coffman, TE, Bengals
Kris Brown, K, Texans

Perfect Draft 2.0 - Updated after a busy week

A lot can change in a matter of a few days, and those changes have affected the Perfect Draft column I wrote just five days ago.

Among other things, Arian Foster and Jacoby Jones have gotten pricier (but are still worth drafting). Moving them up the list meant I had to replace and juggle some of the other picks, while also remaining within everyone's ADP.

Check out my updated Perfect Draft at the Sporting News' Fantasy Source: http://fantasysource.sportingnews.com/football/experts/ladd-biro/2010-09-03/4th-and-long-the-perfect-draft

And in case you missed it...


Rookie RB Montario Hardesty is out for the year with a torn ACL. That's a big blow to the Browns, but good news for owners of Jerome Harrison (right). Peyton Hillis and James Davis are the backups, with Hillis the more valuable of the two.

Also, Big Ben's 6-week suspension was reduced to four weeks, while Byron Leftwich has suffered a knee injury that will keep him sidelined indefinitely. That means Dennis Dixon will be the Steelers' QB to begin the season. That could be interesting. Plan accordingly if you own Ward or Wallace.

Neil Rackers, as predicted here a month ago, has won the kicking battle in Houston. He's a terrific last-round pick, given the offense he'll be batting cleanup for. Kris Brown will likely land elsewhere soon, but not in as sweet a kicking destination.

And LenDale White is done for the season (heck, let's call it a career) with a torn Achilles.

Don't forget to tune into The Fantasy Files on Sporting News Radio tomorrow morning (9 AM ET/8 AM CT) for more late-breaking news and advice for your upcoming drafts.