Week 15 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Drew Brees and Rob Gronkowski, or to bench Caleb Hanie and Tashard Choice? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 15 of the 2011 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos vs. Patriots. There’s only one elite quarterback playing in this game, and it’s not Tebow. But New England’s secondary has made fantasy stars out of Rex Grossman and Dan Orlovsky over the past two weeks. Even if he’s only on-target in the fourth quarter while playing catch-up, Tebow will deliver stellar production.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals at Rams. There’s no better matchup for an opposing rusher than the Rams’ putrid defense. Benson is the unchallenged workhorse of Bengals’ offense, making him a must-start in virtually every league -- even over some elite options.

Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals vs. Browns. His two-game roll was interrupted by the elite 49ers defense last week. But Sunday offers the perfect rebound scenario of a lousy run defense, combined with a strong secondary that will limit Arizona’s passing game. Another big day awaits Wells.

Lance Moore, WR, Saints at Vikings. Marques Colston had a monster game against the Titans in Week 14, but he still trails Moore in the touchdown-scoring department (five to six). Facing an opponent that has surrendered the most passing TDs in the league (26), Moore is a must-start in Minnesota.

Santana Moss, WR, Redskins at Giants. You won’t catch me jumping on the Rex Grossman bandwagon (aka rollercoaster), but there’s no denying his delicious matchup with New York’s imploding pass defense. Moss is the most reliable target in Sexy Rexy’s arsenal, making him a great bet to reach the end zone in his second straight game against inferior secondaries.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, Joe Flacco; RBs Shonn Greene, Marshawn Lynch, Felix Jones, Michael Bush, Reggie Bush, Roy Helu; WRs Julio Jones, Laurent Robinson, Miles Austin, Nate Washington, Mike Williams (Bucs), Donald Driver, Torrey Smith, Percy Harvin, Plaxico Burress, Dwayne Bowe.

Roll ‘em back

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers at Texans. Not only does Houston boast the third-stingiest pass defense in the NFL, but they are stout against the run as well. Normally you can count on Newton to make up any passing deficiencies with a running score or two; but this week should be the exception.

Michael Vick, QB, Eagles vs. Jets. The electrifying quarterback is still playing in pain, and the Jets’ aggressive pass defense won’t make life any easier. Vick has yet to notch a scoring run all season, and multiple passing scores are not in the cards this week either.

Rashard Menden-hall, RB, Steelers at 49ers. You hate to sit a top rusher in the fantasy postseason; but when he’s facing a brick wall in San Francisco, you almost have to. Mendenhall is losing touches to Isaac Redman as well, making him an even riskier start.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills vs. Dolphins. Buffalo is having trouble running the ball, while Miami has quietly ascended into the elite ranks of run defenses. Spiller will have trouble getting on track against this unit, which has allowed just five rushing scores all season.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers at 49ers. I’ve said before he’s my new favorite fantasy wideout, but Brown is a dicey proposition if Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) can’t play. While the 49ers secondary isn’t nearly as stingy as its run defense, they’re good enough to shut down Charlie Batch and his No. 2 receiver. The Monday night start makes Brown, and Big Ben, even riskier options.

More thumbs down: QBs Sam Bradford, Kyle Orton, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick; RBs Kevin Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Marion Barber, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Chris Ivory; WRs Deion Branch, Jeremy Maclin, Johnny Knox, Michael Crabtree.

Taking a flier

Cardinals defense/special teams vs. Browns. You thought Cleveland’s offense struggled before? Get ready for an epic failure with Colt McCoy (concussion) on the sidelines. Arizona has sacked opposing passers five times apiece over the last two games, and their secondary has elevated its game recently as well. The Browns’ three-headed backfield committee won’t find much room to run, either.

Don’t be the bonehead who…overlooks the Saturday night tilt between the Cowboys and Buccaneers. Just as we’ve grown accustomed to the Thursday night games, the NFL is throwing us another scheduling curveball. Make sure your Cowboys, especially, are locked in for what should be a fantasy smorgasbord.

Week 15 Starters & Benchwarmers

You don’t need me advising you to start Adrian Peterson and Andre Johnson, or to bench Kellen Clemens and Marty Booker. So I’ll leave the obvious recommendations to the network bozos and focus instead on players typically on the bubble of most fantasy lineups. Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 15.

Watch ‘em roll

Jason Campbell, QB, Redskins vs. Giants. With 820 yards, eight total TDs and 3 INTs over the last three games, Campbell has quietly been producing stellar fantasy numbers. Meanwhile, the Giants have coughed up 23 passing TDs this season, and nearly 300 yards per game over the last four weeks.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos vs. Raiders. Not only will he be facing a team he torched in Week 3 for 90 yards and a TD, but he’ll likely be doing so without competition from the injured Correll Buckhalter. Quinton Ganther just added two more rushing TDs to Oakland’s league-high 20. Imagine what Moreno will do to them.

Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals at Lions. You’ve held onto him all year for just this moment. The rookie is coming off a dominating performance against a solid 49ers defense and is heading toward one of the NFL’s true softies. Wells has 28 carries to Tim Hightower’s eight over the last two weeks – a trend that should continue Sunday.

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers at Steelers. He’s had a disappointing season, and he dropped a catchable ball in the end zone last week. But Aaron Rodgers is due for a big game against Pittsburgh’s vulnerable secondary that will be playing without Troy Polamalu, so look for a nice outing from both Packers wideouts in this one.

TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR, Seahawks vs. Buccaneers. With Nate Burleson already ruled out of this contest, Housh should see significantly more targets against a secondary that averages just under two passing TDs allowed per game.

More thumbs up: QBs Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Hasselbeck; RBs Ray Rice, Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Laurence Maroney, Jamaal Charles; WRs Smilin’ Miles Austin, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garcon, Mike Sims-Walker, Derrick Mason, Davone Bess.

Roll ‘em back

Eli Manning, QB, Giants at Redskins. Think twice before inserting the red-hot passer into your starting lineup against a defense that’s giving up just one passing TD per game. Eli probably won’t ruin you (ala Kurt Warner last Monday night), but he’s unlikely to keep pace with the big boys this weekend.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers vs. Packers. If you managed to survive last week despite his dreadful performance against the Browns, don’t risk another meltdown against the Pack on Sunday. It’s nice to know he’s added third-down responsibilities to his repertoire, but Green Bay’s second-ranked run defense is playing with purpose down the stretch. You sure can’t say that about the Steelers these days.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers vs. Vikings. It’s hard to bench your top draft pick, especially during the postseason. But consider that Carolina just lost its second starting tackle, and they’ll be facing one of the NFL’s stingiest run defenses (just three rushing TDs allowed all season). Much like the last two weeks, Williams could be a big disappointment at the worst possible time.

Roddy White, WR, Falcons at Jets. Regardless who lines up at QB this week, he won’t look White’s way often due to the imposing presence of shut-down corner Darrelle Revis. There’s no worse matchup for a No. 1 wideout than the Jets’ top-ranked pass defense, and Revis is the ultimate eraser of fantasy points.

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers vs. Vikings. With Matt Moore under center, the aforementioned offensive line problems and a stout Vikings secondary blanketing his every move, the odds are stacked against Smith on Sunday night. Carolina will be lucky to put up 10 points in this mismatch.

More thumbs down: QBs Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Matt Cassel; RBs Matt Forte, Marion Barber, Fred Jackson, LeSean McCoy, LT, Cadillac Williams, Jason Snelling; WRs Donnie Avery, Johnny Knox, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne, Chris Chambers, all Raiders.

TAKING A FLIER

Arian Foster, RB, Texans at Rams. Just like last week’s flier, Quinton Ganther, Foster offers little more than a sparse resume, a starting assignment and an ultra-favorable matchup. And just like Ganther, he could contribute significantly to a playoff victory – he, too, is a decent receiver – especially if Chris Brown’s and Ryan Moats’ touches are minimized. The undrafted rookie comes with a measure of risk, to be sure; but only Oakland has surrendered more rushing scores than St. Louis. That’s a risk worth taking.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…gets himself fired for playing fantasy football at the office. If you haven’t seen yesterday's post, Fidelity Investments recently axed four managers in a Dallas-area branch for that heinous activity. I’ve taken up their cause on the airwaves and via this blog, and I invite you to join me in expressing your displeasure with Fidelity’s unreasonable actions. Meanwhile, beware overzealous corporate party-poopers.