Week 17 Starters & Benchwarmers

Hopefully this isn’t your championship weekend and you’re just playing for fun. But since all bets are off in Week 17, some obvious choices are suddenly not so obvious. Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 17 of the 2011 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bills at Patriots. He torched the Patriots for 369 yards and two TDs when these teams met way back in Week 3. Though Fitzpatrick has been mediocre most of December, he has a great chance to finish on a high note as he faces the worst pass defense in the league.

Ben Tate, RB, Texans vs. Titans. With its postseason seeding set in stone, the Texans will surely rest Arian Foster. That should leave the backfield to Tate, assuming he also isn’t reserved. Tate posted 104 yards rushing against Tennessee’s mediocre defense in Week 7, even though Foster started and played well.

Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys at Giants. With everything on the line and his quarterback nursing a bruised hand, Jones will be leaned on heavily in this favorable matchup. He’s had plenty of time to rest his bum hamstring, so look for a heaping helping of Jones in Sunday night’s showdown. He collected 137 combined yards in the last meeting between the division rivals.

Robert Meachem, WR, Saints vs. Panthers. New Orleans still has a bye week on the line, so the starters should get a decent amount of action. With Lance Moore likely to sit out due to a hamstring injury, Meachem has a great chance to prosper against the Panthers’ porous secondary.


Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers at Raiders. A groin injury will likely sideline Vincent Jackson for the finale, giving Floyd an ideal opportunity to reach the end zone for the third consecutive week. Oakland’s pass defense has been pretty awful, so it should be a nice day all around for those participating in the San Diego aerial attack.

More thumbs up: QBs Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Matt Stafford; RBs Maurice Jones-Drew, Kahlil Bell, Rashard Mendenhall, Marshawn Lynch, Beanie Wells, C.J. Spiller, Michael Bush, DeAngelo Williams; WRs Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, Nate Washington, Stevie Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Miles Austin, Laurent Robinson, Denarius Moore.

Roll ‘em back

Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos at Chiefs. Kansas City has played outstanding defense over the past two weeks, most notably against Aaron Rodgers in Week 15. Tebow generally makes up for his passing deficiencies with rushing scores, but those will be tough to come by as well. These teams are heading in opposite directions lately, making Tebow a very risky play in rowdy Arrowhead.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans at Texans. In Week 7, Houston held Johnson to a paltry 45 combined yards. Though he’s broken out of his early-season doldrums, Johnson is now dealing with a nagging ankle injury on which he’s having trouble cutting. Though the Titans still have a shot at the postseason (provided they get a lot of help), it’s hard to expect a full game, or meaningful production, from “CJ1K” against the stout Texans run defense.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams vs. 49ers. As predicted here, and virtually nowhere else, Marshawn Lynch finally punctured the 49ers’ defense for its first rushing TD of the season last weekend. Jackson won’t make it two in a row. He was held to 30 combined yards when these teams met in Week 13. It should be another ugly day to finish an ugly season for the Rams.

Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers vs. Lions. Even if Green Bay’s regular starters are allowed to play a quarter or more, Nelson should be resting comfortably on your bench. He lives and dies on big plays and limited targets, so his risk is amplified further when an early exit seems assured.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans vs. Titans. He’s expected to return from his on-again off-again hamstring injury, but he’ll be on a strict snap count. With nothing at stake for the Texans, and his fellow starters leaving early, Johnson should remain on your bench.

More thumbs down: QBs Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore, Mark Sanchez, Matt Hasselbeck, Rex Grossman, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco; RBs Donald Brown, Arian Foster, LeGarrette Blount, Mike Tolbert, Kevin Smith, Willis McGahee, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Jackie Battle, Ryan Grant; WRs Plaxico Burress, Vincent Jackson, James Jones, Lance Moore, Greg Little, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Lloyd, Antonio Brown.

Taking a flier

Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots vs. Bills. The rookie led his team in rushing the last time they faced the Bills, and Ridley has gotten the most carries in the Patriots’ backfield committee over the last two games. Against the NFL’s 28th-ranked rush defense, Ridley is well positioned to have the best game of his young NFL career on Sunday.

Don’t be the bonehead who…wages your title game in Week 17 again next year. Talk to your commissioner and fellow owners now, and agree to change the schedule so you’re not stuck in this same situation next season. Championships should not be contested while many of your best players are wearing baseball caps.

Unheralded receivers steal the spotlight, and the points

Fantasy scores were down virtually across-the-board this weekend, thanks in part to the onset of the dreaded bye weeks. But a quick glance at some of Sunday’s top performers also sheds light on the statistical downturn.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis out-scored his quarterback. Darren McFadden played second fiddle to Darrius Heyward-Bey. Brandon Lloyd racked up a measly 20 receiving yards which, remarkably, was 24 more than his counterpart, Eric Decker.

Matt Cassel connected on four touchdown passes, for crying out loud.

Meanwhile, very few of us own such wideouts as Doug Baldwin, Victor Cruz, James Jones, Steve Breaston or Jason Hill; so starting them was out of the question. In fact, that would have made about as much sense as Hank Williams, Jr., debating metaphysics with Stephen Hawking. Or a 12-year-old, for that matter.

Week 5 served as a reminder that every lineup position can make a difference in a tight contest. I certainly wouldn’t have bet that DeAngelo Williams would provide the winning margin in one of my leagues, and the margin of defeat in another. Countless players were burned when Rashard Mendenhall was declared active, then stood on the sidelines the entire game.

Consider this just the latest example of the often random nature of the fantasy gods. They’ll smile on you one week, then kick you in the hammy the next.


FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos. Forget what you saw of his mediocre passing on Sunday and recall his impressive play of late 2010. Heading into the Broncos’ bye week, Tebow could very well emerge as the team’s starter over the uninspiring Kyle Orton. If nothing else, you know the young gun will score as a rusher; something he’s done in every game in which he’s seen meaningful action.

Jackie Battle, RB, Chiefs. Consider this the most unenthusiastic recommendation possible. Battle emerged Sunday from the morass that is the Kansas City backfield with 140 combined yards. But consider that the fifth-year player nearly doubled his career production in the process. Any starting tailback merits a fantasy roster spot, but Battle is an unlikely hero. And he’s heading into a bye.

Delone Carter, RB, Colts. We expected the rookie to compete for a starting role by midseason, and he could get the nod earlier now that Joseph Addai has suffered a hamstring injury. If Addai misses multiple weeks, Carter will be a decent flex play. But he’ll still split carries with Donald Brown, who is viewed as the better option on passing downs.

David Nelson, WR, Bills. He and Donald Jones have essentially split the No. 2-wideout duties in Buffalo since Roscoe Parrish was lost for the season. Now that Jones has been sidelined indefinitely with an ankle injury, Nelson has a chance to distinguish himself opposite Stevie Johnson. But Ryan Fitzpatrick will need to get his mojo back first.

Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals. With touchdowns in three of the first five games, Gresham won’t be flying under the radar much longer. Still available in the majority of leagues, the second-year player is developing a special rapport with Andy Dalton. Only A.J. Green has been targeted more.

Don’t be fooled

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers. Every season, Smith has a stretch of games that raises the eyebrows of fantasy owners. Some even take the step of adding him to their rosters, either out of desperation or a hunch that he might finally be on the verge of fulfilling his lofty expectations. And then, he turns into Alex Smith again. In an era when 300-yard passing games have become the norm, Smith has posted two since the 49ers made him the top draft pick of 2005. Sunday was just the sixth three-touchdown game of his career.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders. It was fitting that Heyward-Bey had one of his finest performances in the game following Al Davis’ death. After all, Davis surprised everyone by using the seventh overall pick in 2009 on the speedy wideout with the butter-fingered reputation. Don’t let nostalgia fool you into investing in the underachiever.

Devery Henderson, WR, Saints. Now that Marques Colston and Lance Moore are healthy, the consistently unreliable Henderson has disappeared on cue. With one 11-yard reception (on two targets) over the past two weeks, it’s time to give him the heave-ho.

The Most Interesting Man in Fantasyland

He can beat you with his rifle arm, or his rocket legs, but he refuses to use his laser vision in public.

Other rich and famous athletes ask for his autograph, even after he has humiliated them.

His Wikipedia entries have never been inaccurate.

When he is interviewed on television, he is speaking directly to you.


He knows the last digit of pi.

If you were to try to tackle him, the air you grasped would smell like freshly baked chocolate chip cookies.

He once won a punt, pass and kick competition, without using a ball.

When he calls time-out, the Earth stops rotating.

His awkward-looking slides are actually fundamentally perfect.

He owns several NFL records, which he plays on his turntable to relax.

He does not send Christmas cards. They send themselves.

They say he once got a concussion, then helped the trainers understand the meaning of life.

When he calls plays in the huddle, all his teammates hear is “I’ll find you.”

If he played soccer, Americans would watch.

You cannot say the word “victory” without uttering his name.

When he is penalized, the opposing team loses yardage.

School children have recited his snap counts as historic speeches.

When he scrambles, he can see the imaginary, yellow first-down line.

His fantasy owners have already won next weekend’s championship game.

It was he who let the dogs out.

He is…the Most Interesting Man in Fantasyland.

Says he: “I don’t always play fantasy football. But when I do, I prefer to start only myself.”

Stay sportsy, my friends.


FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

As you head into championship weekend, your starting roster should be fairly settled. But a little tweaking here or there, if only to keep your competition from improving, might still be in order. Here’s a look at a few players that could next weekend, and some that won’t.

Catch ‘em while you can


Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos. He racked up a passing and rushing touchdown in his first road start, and he will face the Texans’ historically inept secondary in his much-anticipated Mile High debut Sunday. Kyle Orton is not expected to return, even if healthy. If Knowshon Moreno’s rib injury keeps him sidelined, Tebow could again be Denver’s leading rusher. In leagues that start two QBs, the rookie is worth a look.

Michael Bush, RB, Raiders. Though Darren McFadden is the team’s most explosive tailback, Bush has emerged as the goal-line specialist. He’s scored three times over the past three weeks, and he’ll be facing Indy’s porous run defense next weekend.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers. He is a free agent in roughly a third of all fantasy leagues. After his three-TD performance last Thursday, you can bet your opponents’ waiver-wire claims are already locked in.

Don’t be fooled

Matt Flynn, QB, Packers. He exceeded expectations in his first start, but Aaron Rodgers is likely to return in Week 16. Even if Flynn gets another chance, the unfavorable matchup with the Giants makes him an overly risky play.

Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins. Go ahead. Make your opponent’s day.

Lance Ball, RB, Broncos. After Moreno left the game early, Ball took 15 handoffs. Unfortunately, the undrafted rookie accumulated just 20 yards. Correll Buckhalter ran for a whopping three yards on six carries. In other words, avoid all Denver backs not named Moreno.

Dan Carpenter, K, Dolphins. He missed all four of his field goal attempts Sunday, any of which could have saved the day for Miami. Though each was from 48 or more yards out, Carpenter may have trouble shaking off this disaster. You don’t need a kicker with the yips in your title matchup.