Fantasy gods smile on some, smite others

Bryce Brown giveth, and Bryce Brown taketh away.

Just when it appeared that the explosive rookie would carry his ecstatic owners to the Promised Land, Brown put up a stinker of epic proportions.  With just 12 combined yards on 14 touches, the Eagles’ tailback couldn’t blame an injury; and he didn’t even lose a fumble.  He simply got bottled up by the Buccaneers’ defense and, with that, doomed countless fantasy teams to an early exit.

Then again, if you teamed him with Marshawn Lynch – who needed just 11 touches to generate 128 yards and a TD hat trick – you probably survived.  Add in the sucker punching of the Cardinals by the Seahawks defense (eight turnovers, three sacks, two defensive scores and a shutout) for good measure, and Brown’s implosion was a mere speed bump on your road to victory.

The first weekend of the 2012 fantasy postseason also featured stellar performances from Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Adrian Peterson, Knowshon Moreno, Mike Wallace, Danario Alexander and several others. 

But those counting on heroics from Chris Johnson, C.J. Spiller, Larry Fitzgerald, Torrey Smith and just about any top-flight tight end not named Aaron Hernandez were sorely disappointed.  Even the great A.J. Green let down his team, and his owners, with just 44 receiving yards and an inconceivable drop of a sure-fire touchdown pass.

A rash of injuries to Robert Griffin III (knee), Jay Cutler (neck), Fred Jackson (leg), Ahmad Bradshaw (knee), Dez Bryant (finger), Dwayne Bowe (ribs), Jared Cook (shoulder), Brent Celek (concussion) and Brandon Pettigrew (ankle) could have ramifications for many teams in crunch time, reminding us why it’s essential to have depth at every position if your goal is a championship.

Indeed, the fantasy gods can be generous, and they can be cruel.  Just ask Bryce Brown.

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering for your championship run, and one who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

David Wilson, RB, Giants.  The rookie speedster had his long-awaited coming-out party with 100 yards and 2 TDs on the ground, punctuated by a 98-yard kickoff return score.  Wilson will surely get more opportunities to dazzle, especially if Ahmad Bradshaw’s balky knee continues to limit him.

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans.  If yours is one of the 30 percent of leagues in which Britt is a free agent, grab him.  He’s on a stellar three-game roll, with a very favorable schedule laid out before him.

Don’t be fooled

Anthony McCoy, TE, Seahawks.  The first Seattle receiver to accumulate 100 receiving yards in a game this season, McCoy made his mark in a contest in which his team scored 58 points.  Look for his second 100-yard performance the next time Seattle breaks the half-century mark.

Saturday morning updates -- Week 14

It's playoff time, and I hope (and expect) that every Fool is still competing today. 

Let's get to it:

It sounds like Chris Ivory (hamstring) will sit out today's game, making Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram marginally more attractive.  I've owned Ingram all year, and have yet to start him.  Won't be today, either.  As for the other two, they both have a good shot to score (as does Ingram), but none are likely to put up big yardage.

Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy are out again.  Gotta love Bryce Brown, even though he has a rough matchup.

Big Ben is back in the saddle for the Steelers, but Mendenhall won't play again.  Roethlisberger is worth a start if your other options are weak.  Dwyer also should have a decent day.  Love Antonio Brown and Heath Miller.

Look for another heavy workload for DeMarco Murray, as the Cowboys try to relieve pressure on Romo from the relentless Bengals pass rush.

Cecil Shorts and Rashad Jennings won't play for the Jags today.  Will be interesting to see if Justin Blackmon steps up in Shorts' absence, or if the Jags just implode.  With Montel Owens at RB, I'm thinking implosion.

It looks like Hakeem Nicks (knee) will be good to go today.  Start him if you've got him.

Danny Amendola will be sidelined, making Chris Givens and Brandon Gibson viable options.  But I wouldn't start either ahead of a more established performer.  I love Steven Jackson in this contest, though.

Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez are all listed as questionable for the Monday nighter, but none is expected to miss the game.  Of the three, Lloyd is the least interesting, but with Julian Edelman and Gronk both out, even he could come up big in this one.

Dustin Keller won't play for the Jets today.  Jeff Cumberland takes his place.

Ed Dickson also will sit out, leaving the TE spot mostly in Dennis Pitta's hands.  That doesn't make him a great starting option, though, in spite of the tasty matchup.

It's that time of year when weather can be a major factor in the games.  The Packers and Lions will be playing on a truly frozen tundra, as they are expected to get several inches of snow tonight.  That wouldn't keep me from starting Rodgers, but I would be more concerned about Matt Stafford, who isn't used to playing in that kind of weather.

Okay, that's it for now.  Heading to Twitter (www.twitter.com/ladd_biro) to get out the inactives and other late-breaking news.

Good luck, Fools!

Week 14 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Arian Foster and A.J. Green, or to bench Mark Sanchez and Early Doucet?  The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

It’s playoff time!  Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 14 of the 2012 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans at Patriots.  It’s always nice having a starter or two playing on Monday night; especially when it’s your QB facing a lousy secondary.  Schaub isn’t the most consistent fantasy performer, but he’s been sharp enough to trust against one of the NFL’s passing doormats. 

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals vs. Cowboys.  Green-Ellis is on a monster run, while the Dallas run defense is imploding.  The Law Firm is an open-and-shut case in this matchup.  (Sorry…)

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets at Jaguars.  Greene is the quintessential underachiever, so it’s always risky to tout his prospects.  But he’s coming off his second 100-yard performance this season, and he now faces the second-worst run defense in the league.  With all the turmoil surrounding the Jets’ quarterbacks, Greene will surely be leaned on heavily in this contest.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers vs. Chargers.  With Ben Roethlisberger back in the saddle, his go-to target belongs in your lineup.  We’ve seen Big Ben perform well when hurt, and Brown now has a solid game under his belt after returning from an ankle injury.  San Diego won’t put up much resistance.

Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers vs. Eagles.  These are the times that try Eagles fans’ souls, but it’s all good news for opposing fantasy players.  Josh Freeman should have a field day against Philly’s imploding secondary, leading to great outings from both of his favorite wideouts. 

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman; RBs Michael Turner, C.J. Spiller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Bryce Brown, Chris Johnson, Trent Richardson, Mikel Leshoure, Steven Jackson, Alfred Morris; WRs Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, Pierre Garcon, Hakeem Nicks, Michael Crabtree, Lance Moore.

Roll ‘em back

Tony Romo, RB, Cowboys at Bengals.  He’s riding a two-game hot streak courtesy of a pair of pitiful pass defenses. But this Sunday, Romo will be running for his life, or watching the game from his backside, as Cincinnati’s league-leading sack attack overwhelms the Cowboys’ sorry offensive line. He’ll be lucky to emerge intact.

Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals at Seahawks.  With John Skelton back under center, Arizona’s offense should move from putrid to mediocre.  So you can expect more from Wells than the 22 yards he delivered against the Jets; but not enough to justify starting him.  Seattle’s run defense isn’t awesome, but it’s talented enough to ground this rushing attack.

Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins at 49ers. It could be an ugly afternoon for the Dolphins when they travel cross-country to face a defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing rushers.  Bush has been up and down all season – mostly down – so there’s little reason to believe he’ll score just the fourth rushing TD of the season against this unit; especially with All Pro LT Jake Long out for the duration.

Danario Alexander, WR, Chargers at Steelers.  It’s hard to sit one of the hottest receivers in the business, but this is a scary matchup for his team.  Philip Rivers is on a three-game slide, and he’ll be facing the league’s stingiest pass defense on their home (sloppy) turf.  Consider a safer option for Alexander.

Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys at Bengals.  Remember what I wrote about Romo a few lines ago? By hook or crook, he’ll find a way to get the ball into the hands of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten.  But Austin (hip) has clearly fallen down the pecking order, dimming his prospects for success this weekend.

More thumbs down: QBs Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford; RBs Ryan Mathews, Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Montel Owens; WRs Brandon Lloyd, Brian Hartline, Steve Smith, Chris Givens, Malcom Floyd.

TAKING A FLIER

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans at Colts.  Most of us gave up on Britt a long time ago; but perhaps we should give him another look.  He has scored in consecutive weeks, despite catching just five balls during that span.  Facing a weak Colts secondary, Britt has a good chance to pay handsome dividends on Sunday.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…hangs onto Percy Harvin, now that he’s been exiled to injured reserve.  Drop him and pick up a sleeper, say T.Y. Hilton, who could potentially help your team through a postseason run.  Anyone is preferable to a guy with “IR” by his name. 

Week 13 Heroes & Zeros

This was a great week to start…

QBs

Cam Newton, Panthers – Threw for 232 yards and 3 TDs, and ran for 78 yards, with no turnovers.

Andrew Luck, Colts – Had 3 INTs, but made up for it with 391 yards and 4 TDs.

Tony Romo, Cowboys – Had a TD hat trick and 303 passing yards.

RBs

Adrian Peterson, Vikings – Rushed for a whopping 210 yards and 1 TD, plus a 10-yard reception.

Bryce Brown, Eagles – Ran for 169 yards and 2 TDs, plus 4 passes for 14 yards, with another  fumble.

WRs

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – Gathered 8 receptions for 99 yards and 2 TDs.

Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Took 6 passes for 98 yards and 2 TDs.

Calvin Johnson, Lions – Caught 13 passes for 171 yards and a TD.

Brandon Marshall, Bears – Made PPR leaguers happy with 10 receptions for 165 yards.

Steve Smith, Panthers – Tallied 120 yards and a TD on just 5 receptions.

Donnie Avery, Colts – Turned 5 receptions into 91 yards and a pair of TDs.

Wes Welker, Patriots – Caught a dozen passes for 103 yards and a TD.

Josh Gordon, Browns – Hauled in 6 passes for 116 yards and 1 TD.

Pierre Garcon, Redskins – Caught 8 balls for 106 yards and a TD.

TEs

Brandon Myers, Raiders – Caught 14 catches for 130 yards and a TD.

Heath Miller, Steelers – His 5 catches produced 97 yards and a score.

D/STs

This was a great week to play against…

QBs

Drew Brees, Saints – Had a career-worst game, passing for 341 yards with 5 INTs and no scores.

RBs

Rashad Jennings, Jaguars – Only 20 rushing yards before exiting with a concussion.

Beanie Wells, Cardinals – Just 22 yards on the ground.

WRs

Santana Moss, Redskins – Shut out on Monday night.

Ryan Broyles, Lions – Knocked out for the season after catching a 3-yard pass.

Jordy Nelson, Packers – Just one 10-yard reception before leaving with an injury.

Brandon LaFell, Panthers – Only 14 yards on 2 catches, before injuring his foot.

Julian Edelman, Patriots – Only 13 yards on his sole reception. Then he got hurt.

Eric Decker, Broncos – Grabbed 2 balls for 17 yards.

Roddy White, Falcons – Had a 20-yarder.

Brandon Lloyd, Patriots – He had a 10-yarder.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – The disaster continues, with a 23-yard reception.

Torrey Smith, Ravens – Had another bad night against the Steelers, with just 33 yards on 3 catches.

Denarius Moore, Raiders – Held to 31 yards on 2 passes.

Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – Just 38 yards on 3 receptions.

Antonio Brown, Steelers – 58 receiving yards wasn’t awful in his return from injury, but the INT he tossed on a trick play was.

TEs

Vernon Davis, 49ers – Caught 2 passes for 15 yards.

Stand pat if you’ve weathered the storm

Success in fantasy football usually requires winning a war of attrition. 

Most of us can only dream of the day when we draft the ideal roster that never needs tweaking, injury replacements or free agent reinforcements.

For every no-brainer, Arian Foster-type first-round draft choice, there are multiple Darren McFaddens, Chris Johnsons and Maurice Jones-Drews who inevitably disappoint. 

For every “risky” Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson pick that turns to gold, I can give you a laundry list of busts that would turn your stomach.

A.J. Green has lived up to his billing, and Calvin Johnson has finally gotten his groove back.  But those of us who invested early in Greg Jennings’ or Larry Fitzgerald’s stock have had to scramble to fill a gaping void.

That’s why none of us should be shocked that three of the top QBs in Fantasyland took ill-timed swoons in the final weekend of most leagues’ regular-seasons. 

Aaron Rodgers carried one of my teams to a postseason berth; but he’s been a liability over the past two weeks.

Tom Brady was a one-armed wrecking crew for another of my squads over the first dozen weeks, and then he posted a stinker against the Dolphins on Sunday. 

And heaven forbid you ask a Drew Brees owner what they think of their quarterback after his Thursday night massacre.  If Brees’ record-setting exploits weren’t enough to secure a postseason berth for them earlier, there’s a very good chance they’ll be on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin this coming weekend.

Sometimes it takes a Bryce Brown to bail out an early exit from Jordy Nelson.  But you had to be savvy enough to pounce on Brown when LeSean McCoy was concussed.  Or, smarter still, you handcuffed Brown to Shady during your draft, or shortly thereafter, and waited patiently for his opportunity.

Over the years, I’ve found that fantasy success is equal parts skill (a.k.a., knowing the players), nimbleness (making smart free-agent moves and/or trades throughout the season) and timing (a.k.a., luck).  Two out of three is usually enough, and three out of three can win championships. 

Chances are, if you only have one of the above, you’re not reading fantasy football columns any more.  Your long, unfulfilled offseason has already begun.

Normally at this point of my Monday columns, I turn my attention to free agent picks and pans.  But this week, there are no viable players worth picking up that haven’t previously been covered in this space. 

Frankly, that’s a good thing.  That means that no major stars succumbed to serious injury over the weekend.  Sure, Nelson could miss some time with his bum hammy; but his fellow wideouts are well-known, widely owned and don’t need my endorsement.

So instead of conjuring up two or three “picks to click” just to maintain my standard format, I’ll simply recommend that you stand pat with your current roster and get set for the postseason.  Hopefully you earned a first-round bye.  If not, Thursday’s Broncos-Raiders game will be here before you know it.

Put on your game face.  The fantasy postseason is upon us.  

Sunday morning updates -- Week 13

Good morning, Fools.

This is it.  The last weekend of the regular season for most of us.  For many, it's win and in.  For others, it's one and done.  Sadly, we left some of our comrades behind weeks ago.

For those of us still playing for keeps, or even just pride, let's see what's up around the league as we prepare for today's games.

Obviously, the top story of the day centers on the tragedy in Kansas City.  The Chiefs will surely play with heavy hearts, and all of us share their sorrow.  What a terrible story...

Jonathan Stewart won't play for the Panthers in that game, due to his high ankle sprain.  As I said earlier this week, I don't trust DeAngelo Williams; but I do like Cam's chances in this one.

It's not official yet, but it appears that Darren McFadden will sit another game out.  That's great news for Marcel Reece owners.  Get him back in your lineup.

Last week's ankle injury wasn't bad enough to keep Matt Forte out of the lineup.  That said, I still like Michael Bush's chances to get in the end zone again, and tack on more yardage than usual.

DeMarco Murray is expected to make his return in tonight's tilt, though it's expected that the Cowboys will ease him back in.  I've been waiting patiently, just like many of you, for Murray to get back on the field; but I'm not taking any chances with him in my lineup this weekend.  Ditto for Miles Austin (hip), who remains questionable for tonight.


Percy Harvin is out again.  Rookie Jarius Wright will be the biggest beneficiary of his absence; but that don't impress me much.  (My apologies for the Shania Twain reference.)

Pierre Garcon is expected to play again on Monday night, and I like his chances against the G-men.

Greg Jennings is active.  Let's see how he holds up before trusting him in our lineups.  Flower Mound's own Donald Driver goes to the inactive list now that Jennings is back.

Our decision has been made easy for us regarding Danny Amendola.  He's inactive.

I'll be counting on a big game from Aaron Hernandez today.  I suggest you do, too.

Okay, that's it for now.  On to the inactive reports.  Make sure you're following my tweets (www.twitter.com/ladd_biro) for all the late-breaking news throughout the day.

Snippets from 4th & Long

Here are a few snippets from yesterday's 4th & Long column on Sporting News.

Michael Vick's concussion symptoms have gotten worse, according to reports. Though you likely haven't been counting on him to return to your starting lineup, his absence means more Nick Foles -- and less Eagles offense. DeSean Jackson is already done for the year, while Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek are as good as done.

Darren McFadden (ankle) is expected to return this week, but Marcel Reece has earned a continuing role in the rushing attack going forward, thanks to his strong relief performances. With the workload split, and Mike Goodson (ankle) also a possibility to return, no Raiders back is a good bet against a Cleveland run defense that has been playing its best ball of late.

Injuries to both ankles will surely keep Jonathan Stewart out of Sunday's tasty matchup with the Chiefs. So that means DeAngelo Williams is a great start, right? Ha ha! That's a good one! Sorry, I vowed never to trust Williams again, regardless of the matchup and his projected workload. There's a very good reason he's a free agent in nearly a third of all fantasy leagues. I suggest you let him remain so.

DeMarco Murray (foot) is inching closer to his return, but he'd be an awfully risky starter after seven weeks on the pine. Let's hope he gets his feet wet Sunday night so we can trust him more in our postseason lineups.

Cedric Benson is still owned in nearly half of all leagues. You can safely drop him now. He has undergone Lisfranc surgery and no longer has a chance to return this season. James Starks is the back to own in Green Bay, though starting him is only for the most desperate among us.

So much for the Jalen Parmele experiment in Jacksonville. He's been placed on injured reserve with a groin injury, putting the ball back in the hands of Rashad Jennings. We saw how that worked out last time Jennings was the starter. With no sign of Maurice Jones-Drew returning, this is a running game that's best avoided altogether.
 
I'm very pleased Greg Jennings (hernia) is expected back in the lineup this weekend, but I won't be starting him. He'll need some time to get his legs back, and he'll likely be on a snap count. Hopefully Jennings will make it through the Vikings game without any setbacks, and he'll be primed for success in the fantasy postseason.

Danny Amendola (heel) will be a game-time decision against the 49ers. He bagged 11 passes for 102 yards the last time these teams met (in Week 10), but he didn't last long last week when he tried to play with the injury. He's a high-risk, high-return prospect, especially for PPR leaguers.

It's entirely possible that Miles Austin will play against Philly, despite the hip and hamstring injuries he sustained on Thanksgiving. With Dez Bryant clearly stepping up as Tony Romo's go-to wideout, Austin won't be in my starting lineup in Week 13.

Torrey Smith had a seven-yard reception when the Ravens met the Steelers two weeks ago. I'm just sayin' ...