Witten active tonight; and more...

Make sure you're following me on Twitter (@ladd_biro) for all the late-breaking news prior to game time.  As always, I'll be tweeting game-day inactives, as well as any other news you need to set the best possible lineup.

Tonight, in a fairly significant surprise, the Cowboys have announced that Jason Witten will be active for the opener.  He's a big risk, because you know the Gmen will be aiming for his gut; but if he's your far-and-away best TE, he's probably worth the gamble in your starting lineup.

As for the rest of the Cowboys/Giants, start 'em if you got 'em.  The Giants' secondary is banged up badly, especially at corner; so Romo's prospects are high.  The Cowboys never stop Eli and his WRs, even when they're not 100%.  Both Miles and Dez are ready to roll, and I like DeMarco Murray's chances of getting off to a nice start tonight.  Bradshaw, too.

Of course, not all of the above will come up big.  But all are clearly starter-worthy tonight.

Also, you heard it here first: Kevin Ogletree is poised for a breakout game tonight as Dallas' No. 3 receiver.  You can take it to the bank!  (Editor's note: Okay fine, I added this part on Friday morning...)

But let's not bury the lead here.  THE NFL IS BACK!  

It's time to play football!

Final thoughts before the games begin

Your draft is in the books, or will be shortly.  The Cowboys and Giants kick off the NFL season Wednesday night.  The wait is nearly over for those of us whose lives seem just a tad incomplete without the thrill of fantasy football competition.

These final hours seem to be more than some of you can handle, however.  My Twitter account has been lit up with questions about various trade scenarios from owners who’ve apparently been staring at their rosters a little too hard and feel the need to do something, anything, to better position themselves for success out of the gate.

May I offer one simple word of advice?  Relax! 

Stop panicking about your team before it has even taken the field.  You presumably spent a reasonable (if not unreasonable) amount of time preparing for your draft, and you made the best choices you could under the circumstances.  Now give your guys a chance to compete.

There will be plenty of opportunities to tweak your roster, if necessary, after the season begins, either through trade or free agency.  Making an impulsive move now – driven by irrational concern or sheer boredom – is more likely to backfire than propel you to fantasy glory.

Heck, the NFL even cut 24 hours off our wait this year.  So take a deep breath, get your lineup set and spend a little extra time with the family.  Before you know it, Romo and Eli will be slinging the pigskin around and everything will be right in the world again. 

Okay, I’ll toss you one bone.  If Jonathan Dwyer is available in your league and you have an extra kicker, defense or other expendable player at the bottom of your roster, grab him.  The Steelers tailback has had an impressive preseason, and could even draw the Week 1 start against the Broncos, thanks to a slew of nagging injuries to Isaac Redman.

If the fast-rising Dwyer out-performs Redman in the opener, he could potentially seize the starting job going forward.  You’re better off grabbing him now, rather than taking your chances on the waiver wire next week.

Another hot Twitter topic centers on the status of Maurice Jones-Drew, who finally ended his acrimonious 38-day holdout and reported to the Jaguars on Sunday.  Will he play?  Will he start?  More specifically, should he be in your starting lineup, or resting safely on your bench in Week 1? 

Unfortunately, your guess is probably as good as mine, since Jags head coach Mike Mularkey hasn’t returned my calls, emails, texts, Tweets, pokes or smoke signals. 

No doubt, starting MJD in Week 1 poses a significant degree of risk.  The decision, therefore, comes down to your alternatives.  Do you have another running back with clearer prospects for success?  If you play with a flex position, do you have a safer option at WR or TE? 

I expect Jones-Drew will see some action on Sunday in Minnesota; but Rashad Jennings will draw the start and the bulk of the carries.  If you have a choice between those two, Jennings is your man. 

Earlier last week, Kenny Britt and his fantasy owners got the best news they could possibly have hoped for, when the NFL imposed a hand-slap suspension of just one week for the receiver’s eighth – eighth!!! – arrest since turning pro in 2009.  As a result, Britt catapulted up draft boards and gave those who gambled a late-round pick on him just days earlier a serendipitous boost to their 2012 prospects.

Britt, whose injured knee is expected to be fully healed by Week 2, has the potential to produce at an elite fantasy level.  An opening-game “bye” is a small price to pay for a fantasy wideout with that much potential.  Don’t ever get in a car he’s driving; but don’t hesitate to grab him if your draft is still ahead.

Those counting on big things from Hakeem Nicks should brace themselves for some pre-game jitters throughout the season.  The explosive wideout has admitted that his surgically repaired foot is not yet fully healed, and that he expects to play with pain all year.  That’s not what you want to hear in the preseason from one of your most important players. 

You know by now that Jason Witten’s prospects for playing in Wednesday’s opener are slim to none.  Like Britt, you’ll need to squirrel him away for a week; but probably no longer.  Once his lacerated spleen is fully healed, Witten should immediately return to elite form.

In even better news for Romo, both Dez Bryant (knee) and Miles Austin (hamstring) are fully expected to suit up for the Giants contest.

But to me, the most eagerly anticipated question of the 2012 season won’t be answered until Sunday night in Denver.  Will the historically durable, gun-slinging Peyton Manning be back, or will the post-neck injury version prove to be a fragile shell of the four-time league MVP?

The answer has huge implications not only for Manning’s owners and Broncos fans, but for those betting big on Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Jacob Tamme.

Oh yes, I am ready for some (fantasy) football. 

Final rankings are up

My FINAL round of positional rankings -- QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Ks, D/STs and the Top 100 -- are now posted here: http://www.scribd.com/laddbiro. 

Unless something dramatic happens, I don't intend to update these any more. 

Now go out and draft perfect, Fools!

Final Sporting News Draft -- This one's for real

The mock drafts are behind us.  Now it's time for the real deal.

The Sporting News Fantasy Source experts drafted this afternoon for the league we will play out this season -- with untold riches and bragging rights at stake.

I drew the 4th overall selection in this 12-team, standard league (starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST).  Here's what I was able to assemble:

Round 1: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers.  The Big 3 RBs flew off the board first, as expected.  The choice was Rodgers or Megatron, but after mock drafting several times, I found that the opportunity cost of skipping an elite QB in the first round is simply too great.  Elite WRs will still be available in the 3rd, but top QBs are gone by the middle of the 2nd.  Besides, it never sucks to have the best passer in the league on your side.

Round 2: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks.  He's not a sexy pick; just a good one, with minimal risk.  He's not going to get suspended this season (unless he pulls another boneheaded stunt), and people forget he was the 5th-best fantasy RB in the league in 2011.  DeMarco Murray was long gone, and I was fairly certain Lynch wouldn't get back to me in the 3rd.  Just as important, several elite WRs were still available, so I knew I could wait for them.

Round 3: Greg Jennings, WR, Packers.  The WRs started flying after my Lynch pick, but one of my faves made it around.  I'm not normally a big believer in teaming QBs and WRs, but if you're gonna do it, Rodgers-Jennings is a pretty sweet combo.

Round 4: Frank Gore, RB, 49ers.  Another one of my targeted guys, I'm very pleased to snare Gore late in the 4th.  After all the years of being severely over-valued, his price now is a bargain.

Round 5: Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys.  I had my heart set on Antonio Gates here, but he was snagged a couple picks too soon.  So I held off on my TE pick and got the best WR available as my second guy.  If he can just keep his hammies intact, Smilin' Miles can perform at an elite level.  Came very close to taking Torrey Smith, but gambled that he'd make it back around.  Missed him by "that much."

Round 6: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals.  I like the Law Firm's chances to perform as a true workhorse in Cincinnati's improving offense.  Love him as a RB3 in a 12-team league.

Round 7: Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers.  Had my eye on Finley and Titus Young, but the Lions wideout was scooped up 4 picks before me.  Though I hesitated to grab another Packers receiver, Finley proved too valuable to resist.  I'm all-in on Green Bay now!  If Rodgers goes down, I'm toast...

Round 8: Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders.  He slid further than I expected, so I was very happy to get him here.  Not crazy about Moore as my WR3 -- looks like my weakness will be in the WR department -- but if he comes through as projected, I'll be fine.

Round 9: Mark Ingram, RB, Saints.  Love him as my RB4.  I'm expecting the former first-rounder to fulfill his lofty draft status this season.

Round 10: Matt Schaub, QB, Texans.  As solid a backup QB as there is...

Round 11: Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers.  Yeah, the pickins are getting slim... Normally would have grabbed Randall Cobb here (he went just a few picks later), but I'm already over-invested in the Pack.

Round 12: Danny Amendola, WR, Rams.  Another of my sleeper picks.  Actually like him better than Crabtree, but figured he'd still be available here.

Round 13: Eagles defense/special teams.  I have the Packers' unit ranked higher, but again, I can't afford to take another roster hit during their bye week.  The run on defenses had begun, and the 49ers were long gone, so I "settled" for the #3 D/ST on my board.

Round 14: Laurent Robinson, WR, Jaguars.  Despite a quiet preseason, he looks good on paper, no?

Round 15: Isaiah Pead, RB, Rams.  When, not if, S-Jax misses time with another hard-luck injury, Pead will be all the rage in Fantasyland.  Who knows what Jackson's owner will trade me for the talented rookie, who just needs a chance to shine.

Round 16: Jason Hanson, K, Lions.  An accurate kicker in a high-octane offense.  Just what the doctor ordered.

Round 17: Owen Daniels, TE, Texans.  Another backup with plenty of upside; just like his QB.

So there you have it.  I love my QBs, like my RBs and TEs a lot, and am worried about my WRs.  But in a 12-team league, it's hard to be happy at every position.

I guess we'll find out soon enough...

Round 3 of position rankings now posted

My 3rd round of position rankings -- QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Ks, D/STs and Top 100 -- is now posted here: http://www.scribd.com/laddbiro.

See who's rising and falling, and get armed with the Fool's take for your all-important draft.

Happy drafting!

The Perfect Draft: First step toward a title

In a perfect fantasy world, my starting lineup this season would feature Aaron Rodgers, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, A.J. Green and Rob Gronkowski. That would be the same perfect world in which my teenagers never argue with me, Scarlett Johansson stalks me and my six-car garage can’t accommodate my Lamborghini collection.

Alas, since our fellow owners are unlikely to cede the entire first round to us, we’ll simply have to work smarter to assemble the most dominant team in our league. Our challenge, therefore, is to secure the best value in each round, methodically building a roster that will soar from Week 1, withstand an injury to one or two key players, and peak during the fantasy playoffs. 

With that lofty goal in mind, I’ve analyzed the average draft position (ADP) of each player from multiple fantasy sites to determine the best pick in each round – resulting in my oft-imitated, always-controversial, yet magically delicious Perfect Draft. 

As always, we start with a few key assumptions.  First, we’re in a 10-team non-keeper league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and one tight end, kicker and team defense.  Second, we are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a snake format, meaning we won’t have a shot at Foster, McCoy, Rodgers or Ray Rice.  Third, since all drafts play out differently, we’ll need a little luck along the way.  Finally, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2012 Perfect Draft, we select…

Round 1.  Tom Brady, QB, Patriots.  I hate passing up Megatron, but if we don’t take an elite QB here, we may not get another shot.  Other top-notch receivers will be available in the third round, but the primo passers could be long gone by our next pick.  Prefer Drew Brees over Brady?  You’ll get no argument from me.

Round 2.  DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys.  Several solid RB options will be available here, including Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson. Murray has looked the strongest since returning from his ankle injury and he should get off to a blazing start to compensate for the Cowboys’ wounded receiving corps.

Round 3.  Greg Jennings, WR, Packers.  We should have our choice of several elite receivers in this round, including Welker and A.J. Green.  Rodgers’ favorite target is a worthy anchor for our WR corps.

Round 4.  Michael Turner, RB, Falcons.  Atlanta’s workhorse can still break the big one, and he’s money at the goal-line.

Round 5.  Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers.  Philip Rivers’ go-to receiver is back at 100 percent and will once again vie for top honors at his position.  

Round 6.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals.  He’ll be Cincinnati’s lead back and, given the modest competition, could perform like a workhorse.  The Law Firm is poised to have the best season of his career.  

Round 7.  Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers.  Thanks to Mike Wallace’s holdout, Brown is getting invaluable reps with Ben Roethlisberger.  Look for a significant increase in production, especially TDs, now that he’s starting from Day One.

Round 8.  Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens.  The second-year speedster will be Joe Flacco’s favorite target this season.  Anquan Boldin is on the decline, while Smith’s arrow is pointing sky high.

Round 9.  Mark Ingram, RB, Saints.  A knee injury kept Ingram from fulfilling his first-round promise last season.  He’s healthy now and will be leaned upon heavily, especially in the red zone.

Round 10.  Titus Young, WR, Lions.  He’s no Megatron, but the freakishly talented Young offers a world of upside.  If the budding star can put his maturity issues behind him, he’ll help form one of the most lethal receiving tandems on the planet.

Round 11.  Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals.  The explosive rusher will get every opportunity to supplant injury-prone Beanie Wells as the starter.  His stock has been rising steadily all preseason.

Round 12. Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens.  If Matt Schaub slides here, we’ll grab him.  Otherwise, Flacco should serve us well during Brady’s bye (Week 9 vs. Cleveland).

Round 13.  Packers defense/special teams.  The playmaking defense delivers an abundance of turnovers, and Randall Cobb is a threat to take it to the house on every return.

Round 14.  Jared Cook, TE, Titans.  If he and Jake Locker pick up where they left off at the end of the 2011 season, Cook could be in for a breakout year.  He’s big, fast and arguably among the most talented TEs in the league. 

Round 15.  Danny Amendola, WR, Rams.  He enjoys great chemistry with Sam Bradford and holds extra value in point-per-reception leagues.

Round 16.  Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos. The rookie is in line to be the primary backup to Willis McGahee, one of the least-secure starting tailbacks in the league.  Hillman has drawn comparisons to the multi-talented Darren Sproles, so his ceiling is high with Peyton Manning under center.

Round 17.  Dan Bailey, K, Cowboys.  Several kickers are viable options, but Bailey is a deadly accurate kicker for a high-octane offense.

There you have it: A team with firepower at every position, bench depth with substantial upside, and no bye-week dilemmas. 

Now, go forth and make your draft perfect.

Position rankings updated

Greetings, Fools.  It's getting closer...

My 2nd round of position rankings -- QB, RB, WR, TE, K, D/ST and Top 100 -- is now posted here: http://www.scribd.com/laddbiro

Check out who is rising and falling in the ranks as we head into our all-important drafts.