First round of positional rankings complete!

I have completed the first round of positional rankings for QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Ks, DEFs and the Top 100.

They can all be found here: http://www.scribd.com/laddbiro

Enjoy. And please, no wagering.

The Fool is coming! The Fool is coming!

That's right, Beantown...The Fantasy Fool has just been signed to contribute content to the Boston Globe, one of the great metro dailies in the USA (and the world, for that matter). You'll find my stuff online at Boston.com, starting next week (if not sooner).





Having worked and been "edumacated" in your fine city for three years many moons ago, it's exciting for me to finally break into the Boston market.

So here's to you, Pats fans! I can taste the chowder at Legal Seafood now...

2011 Rankings for QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs now posted

Greetings, patient Fools! I'm a day late and a dollar short in posting my first round of positional rankings. Sorry about that. It's been a busy month.

But alas, I've just posted the QBs, RBs and WRs here: http://www.scribd.com/laddbiro

(Update: TE rankings also posted 8/17 pm)

I'm aiming for posting the Ks, DEFs and Top 100 on Thurs.

As always, these lists will be updated at least weekly until a day or two before the regular season kickoff.

Enjoy!

Old faces in new places: Xtreme edition

There’s nothing unusual about offseason player movement. Big names swap teams every year. In each of the previous two seasons, roughly 20 offensive skill-position players of note changed jerseys via free agency or trades.

What’s rare is the free agent that improves his fantasy stock in the year after leaving his previous team.

In 2009, only Brett Favre, Kyle Orton, Nate Washington and Kellen Winslow measurably upgraded their fantasy production from the previous season. In 2010, the standouts were Peyton Hillis, Terrell Owens and Ben Watson. Danny Woodhead and Marshawn Lynch also found happier climes after moving in-season.

Meanwhile, following the historical trend, last year’s list of team-swapping disappointments was exhaustive, highlighted by such long-time fantasy stalwarts as Donovan McNabb, Thomas Jones, Brian Westbrook, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall and Randy Moss.


This year’s lockout, of course, has spawned an unprecedented round of free-agent musical chairs. The number of fantasy-relevant players changing zip codes this season roughly doubled from recent years, and the music hasn’t stopped yet.

Who will prosper? Who will disappear? Let’s examine the most significant offseason moves, broken down by the projected impact on each player’s fantasy value in 2011.

MOVIN’ ON UP – Look for improved production from these six.
Kevin Kolb, QB, Cardinals – As the unchallenged leader in Arizona, Kolb is a lock to vault up the passer rankings this year. Just how far up is the question. Consider him a borderline fantasy starter with upside.

Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins – After missing half of the 2010 season due to injury, a healthy Bush should fare better in Miami by default. He’ll reprise his role as a lethal passing-game weapon, but rookie Daniel Thomas was drafted to be the rushing workhorse.


Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets – Call it a shot in the dark, but I’d consider pulling the trigger on the free agent out of the Oneida Correctional Facility in the middle rounds of your draft.

Lee Evans, WR, Ravens – He’ll benefit from a more consistent QB and a better offense in Baltimore. But the improved scenery is unlikely to make him more than a desperation starter.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Patriots – Though well past his prime, the diva will fill a void in Tom Brady’s receiving corps that could easily translate to a doubling of his four-touchdown output of 2010.

Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks – He scored just twice in an injury-shortened 2010 campaign. But given the horrid state of QB affairs in Seattle, don’t expect a return to his stellar 2009 form.


COMIN’ BACK DOWN – These players will be hard-pressed to match last year’s results.


Ronnie Brown, RB, Eagles – His days as a starter, and wildcat impresario, are over. But he’ll be a useful handcuff to LeSean McCoy.

Cadillac Williams, RB, Rams – Will be parked behind Steven Jackson, waiting for an opportunity.

Ricky Williams, RB, Ravens – Relegated to Ray Rice insurance.

Braylon Edwards, WR, 49ers – Highly unlikely to match 904 yards and seven TDs as Alex Smith’s third or fourth target.

Derrick Mason, WR, Jets – You have to have a lot of confidence in Mark Sanchez to believe his third wideout can be a productive fantasy weapon.

Steve Smith, WR, Eagles – Once his knee heals, the former Giant will likely be the No. 3 wideout in the pecking order, unless Jeremy Maclin’s mysterious illness lingers.

Zach Miller, TE, Seahawks – He’s teased us with his potential in Oakland, but it’s hard to see him excelling in Seattle’s lackluster offense.

David Akers, K, 49ers – He was an elite kicker in Philadelphia. Don’t count on similar results on the left coast.


CALL IT A WASH – For better or worse, these players should post comparable results to last season.


Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Titans – The former Seahawk hasn’t yet adjusted to his new offense. Tennessee will likely remain a one-dimensional, run-dominant team.

Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Seahawks – He may not even hold off Charlie Whitehurst as the starter.

Donovan McNabb, QB, Vikings. Dumped by the Redskins for a sixth-round pick and a case of Schlitz, McNabb is merely holding down the fort until Christian Ponder is ready. It could be another ugly season.

Marion Barber, RB, Bears – Long past his fantasy prime, Barber will settle for Matt Forte’s leftovers.

Tim Hightower, RB, Redskins – He may begin the season as the starter in a crowded backfield, but he’ll likely fumble the job away to one of his younger understudies.

Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos – Will poach touchdowns from Knowshon Moreno instead of Rice this season.

Darren Sproles, RB, Saints – He was recruited to fill Reggie Bush’s cleats, but his opportunities will be few.

Steve Breaston, WR, Chiefs – He gets an upgrade at QB, but the ceiling is low for No. 2 wideouts in Kansas City.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Steelers – All but forgotten by the Jets, you’ll forget where he landed before long.

Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins – He had his moments in Denver. He’ll have some in Washington, too. Not enough to matter, though.

Legedu Naanee, WR, Panthers -- Vowel-blessed wideout could start opposite Steve Smith, but that job has rarely been a lucrative one.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Rams – If you believe, as I do, that Sam Bradford’s star is on the rise, then Sims-Walker becomes an intriguing prospect. But he needs to win a starting job first.

Roy Williams, WR, Bears – Don’t be surprised if Jay Cutler ignores him as much as Tony Romo did.

Kevin Boss, TE, Raiders -- Repeat after me: The only Oakland pass-catcher worth drafting is Jacoby Ford.

Todd Heap, TE, Cardinals -- He should be as reliable a target for Kolb as he was for Joe Flacco.

Greg Olson and Jeremy Shockey, TEs, Panthers – Both were disappointing as clear starters in better offenses last season. Sharing looks from a rookie QB can’t be good.

Olindo Mare, K, Panthers -- Moves from one lousy offense to another.

Jeff Reed, K, Seahawks – Must battle Brandon Coutu for this ho-hum job.


Tomorrow: My first round of positional rankings will be out.

Next week: A look at the Sleepers of 2011.

Helloooooooooo, Twin Cities!

But wait, there's more!

I am very pleased to announce that the Fantasy Fool's column will now appear in the Pioneer Press (Twin Cities, MN) beginning next week. It will be an honor to help make the great state of Minnesota a safer place for fantasy enthusiasts of all stripes -- purple and otherwise.

Thanks to the Pioneer Press for saying "yes" after all these years! I look forward to a long and fruitful run.

My Sporting News Mock Draft -- From the 10 Spot

Just wrapped up my first official mock draft of the season. This one was with my colleagues at the Sporting News' Fantasy Source. As usual, they stuck me with a crappy draft slot (10 out of 12), re-confirming what we all already knew... They fear the Fool.

I'm not happy with my overall draft, which means it's probably awesome. Here's what I was able to cobble together.

1.10 Michael Turner -- Best RB still on the board, in my opinion.

2.03 Calvin "Megatron" Johnson -- It was a toss-up with Steven Jackson, who I think is being way overlooked this season. S-Jax ended up lasting until the mid-3rd round.

3.10 Jahvid Best -- Good value here, but didn't realize till later that I had just picked a second Lion. I won't make that mistake when I'm drafting for real.

4.03 Tony Romo -- Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Brees, Peyton all gone. Either take Romo, or play catch-up at the QB position all season.

5.10 Daniel Thomas -- Had to shore up the RB position, even though I'm light at WR. While I'm down on the rooks this year, I believe Thomas will be a true bell cow.

6.03 Stevie Johnson -- Solid WR2, though not without risk. The WR pool was fairly well drained.

7.10 Johnny Knox -- Never been a fan, but he'll be Cutler's No. 1 target, without much doubt. That's worth a 7th rounder.

8.03 Jay Cutler -- Panic pick. Huge buyer's remorse on this one. Not only am I a Cutler-hater, but I probably grabbed him way too early. Clock was ticking down, and I couldn't decide on a TE vs. WR, and, well, gagged.

9.10 Jacoby Ford -- A Raider, yes. A No. 1 WR with big upside? Yes.

10.03 Marcedes Lewis -- Finally got my TE. If he shows up like last year, he's a steal.

11.10 LaDainian Tomlinson -- The Jets say Shonn Greene will be the workhorse. I've heard that before. LT may still have a few surprises in store for us.

12.03 Plaxico Burress -- A shot in the dark.

13.10 Arrelious Benn -- If you believe the Bucs' offense is going places (and I do), the second-year wideout could be a big part of that.

14.03 Bears DST -- Meh.

15.10 Shane Vereen -- Pats have high hopes for him. So do I, now.

16.03 Nate Kaeding -- Grabbed him to start the run on kickers.

17.10 Donnie Avery -- If he's healthy, could be Bradford's top target.

There you have it. Can't say I'm proud of this one. I'll get better.

Rookie prospects even dimmer than usual

With all the hype and breathless reporting that greet rookie classes at the beginning of each NFL season, you’d think they would have a greater impact on fantasy leagues. Yet over the past two seasons, you could count the true difference-makers among the first-year players on one hand.

In 2009, Knowshon Moreno and Percy Harvin were solid, if unspectacular, fantasy contributors. Last year, Tampa Bay gave us LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams, the only rookies worthy of a regular starting role on a fantasy contender.

The pro game is simply too fast, too complex and too long for most newcomers to master in one season. And that’s in a typical year, with a full offseason of training camps, OTAs and class time to prepare.

As we know all too well, this is no typical season; so we’d be wise to lower our expectations accordingly.

Remember that when evaluating the fantasy potential of any rookie, talent is rarely the decisive factor. More relevant is the opportunity presented to the player, which is also a multi-faceted equation.

Does the newcomer have a clear path to a starting gig? Will he join a high-powered offense, or one whose punter is its most lethal weapon? Is he healthy heading into the season, or has he missed invaluable preseason reps due to nagging injuries?

With those caveats in mind, let’s examine the members of the Class of 2011 with the best opportunities to shine in their inaugural seasons.

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints. The table is set for no rookie like the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Ingram is a battering ram with outstanding vision and sure hands, and what he lacks in speed he makes up for in tackle-busting ability. He should become an instant starter and goal-line beast in New Orleans’ high-octane offense. The oft-injured Pierre Thomas is coming off ankle surgery and is unlikely to impede the rookie’s path to stardom.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins. Until Reggie Bush landed in South Beach, Thomas had the Miami backfield all to himself. But the rookie from Kansas State was drafted to be a workhorse, not a passing-game threat like Bush. Thomas’ upside will be limited more by the Dolphins’ offensive struggles than a competition for carries.

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons. Atlanta paid dearly to draft him, so he will be given every opportunity to excel. Jones has all the tools to develop into a superstar, including an up-and-coming quarterback and a prolific offense in dire need of a dynamic complement to elite wideout Roddy White. He’d make a great fantasy WR4 or WR5, but he’ll probably be drafted too high.

Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals. Tim Hightower is a Redskin and Beanie Wells has failed to seize the workhorse role envisioned when he was drafted in 2009. Enter Williams, a big-play threat with the potential to jumpstart the league’s worst rushing attack. Look for the rookie from Virginia Tech to share carries with Wells early on, with the balance shifting Williams’ way as the season wears on, especially if the veteran succumbs to yet another injury.

Alex Henery, K, Eagles. David Akers has been an elite fantasy kicker for years, thanks to Philly’s high-scoring offense. But he left for San Francisco in free agency, leaving the plum assignment to Henery, who set an NCAA record for career field-goal accuracy (89.5%) at Nebraska. Grab him late and reap the rewards.

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals. He has everything you want in a top-flight receiver, except an experienced quarterback to feed him the ball. Green’s combination of size (6-4, 211 pounds), quickness, crisp route running and outstanding hands will likely be squandered until Andy Dalton gets up to speed.

Look, but don’t touch

DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys. Felix Jones enters his fourth season as a tenuous starter at best. Murray, the explosive rookie from Oklahoma, will have an opportunity to seize the role over time, but a bum hamstring during training camp is doing little to dispel his injury-prone label.

Delone Carter, RB, Colts. Donald Brown will begin the season as Joseph Addai’s primary backup. Carter will likely finish the season there.

Greg Little, WR, Browns. The physically gifted wideout instantly becomes the best receiver in Cleveland. If he and Colt McCoy can develop a strong rapport, Little could offer some late-season value. More likely, he won’t be worth a roster spot until 2012.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. On the plus side, he will likely be the Day One starter. On the down side, well, is everything else. Carolina is in rebuilding mode (a nice way of saying they were the NFL’s worst team in 2010), and Newton arrives bereft of experience in the pro-style offense. His transition will surely be ugly at times.


Next week: We’ll dissect the fallout from the recent free agency frenzy.