Slogging through a winter wonderland

I don’t know which would be worse: Losing your first-round playoff matchup thanks to Aaron Rodgers’ ill-timed concussion; or because your opponent’s kicker tallied four field goals, four extra points and a rushing touchdown.

Thankfully, neither happened to me; but Rodgers’ early exit led to a disappointing performance by Greg Jennings, which could prove costly. And yes, Jay Feely’s bizarre scoring run should count. If your league’s rules don’t allow it, change them.

Like many, my fate hangs in the balance of tonight’s games. (Go Anquan!) But while the weather has already had an indirect – and difficult-to-predict – effect on the postponed Giants-Vikings tilt, none of the four teams will be able to blame the elements should they fail to deliver when you and I need them most.

I presume you don’t need any more convincing that snow, freezing rain and gusting winds can wreak havoc on your fantasy heroes, unless they happen to play quarterback near Boston and live with supermodel wives. But just to be sure…

“Bad Jay” Cutler added another classic stinker to his Windy City resume. The rest of his team, including his vaunted defense, followed suit.

Carson Palmer and Terrell Owens had arguably their worst outings of the year courtesy of the smothering Steelers defense, with a big assist from the freezing rain at Heinz Field. Ben Roethlisberger and his broken nose weren’t much better than Palmer, for that matter.

The Bills and Browns combined for a single touchdown in the bone-chilling rain of Buffalo, as did the Dolphins and Jets in the soggy New Meadowlands. Santonio Holmes even let a perfectly thrown ball slip uncharacteristically through his hands in the end zone.

Graham Gano botched field goals of 24 and 34 yards and was spared the ignominy of whiffing the game-tying extra point when the snap sailed through the soaked gloves of his holder on Washington’s final play.

Meanwhile, aside from the unflappable Tom Brady, most of the weekend’s top performers – including Michael Vick, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, Tim Hightower, DeSean Jackson, Malcom Floyd and Marques Colston – played indoors, or at least in much more hospitable surroundings.

Call it an aberration if you like. But I’ve already started worrying about my Packers, Steelers, Jets and Bengals next weekend. El Nino, where are you?


FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS
At this stage of the season, your starting roster should be fairly settled. But a little tweaking here or there, if only to keep your competition from improving, might still be in order. Here’s a look at a few players that could help in the final weeks, and a few that won’t.

Catch ‘em while you can


Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins. When a hamstring injury knocked him out of action in Week 8, Torain was dropped in many leagues. But after his career-best 172-yard romp on Sunday, he’ll be the hottest commodity on this week’s waiver wire. He’s available in more than half of all leagues.

Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars. The second-year back showed his game-breaking ability on a 74-yard TD run, and finished with five carries for 109 yards. Jennings has now scored in three consecutive weeks. Owners of Maurice Jones-Drew would be well-advised to hedge their bets with his emerging backup.

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans. He returned from a hamstring injury last Thursday and promptly re-claimed his starting job over Randy Moss. With the Texans’ woeful secondary on tap, Britt will be worth starting consideration on many title-seeking fantasy squads.

Don’t be fooled

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers. Aaron Rodgers’ owners who survived their Week 14 matchup will be scrambling for help this week. Don’t be tempted by Smith’s 255-yard, three-touchdown shellacking of the Seahawks. Among other well-documented reasons, he’ll be facing the Chargers’ stifling pass defense on the road next week.

Randy Moss, WR, Titans. Remember his “lost years” in Oakland? Those may seem like the good ole days by the time this season concludes. Moss won’t even be a starter for the rest of the year as long as Britt remains healthy. Feel free to send him packing.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills. He incurred a dreaded high ankle sprain on Sunday and may be lost for the season. Time to move on.

Sunday morning updates - Week 14

Good morning, Fools, and welcome to the first week of the fantasy postseason. I hope all of you are still in contention. I'm moving forward in 3 of 4 leagues (just missed out in the other thanks to trouble at the RB position that I couldn't fix over the past 4-5 weeks; kept getting out-prioritied on the guys I wanted off the waiver wire). It happens.

Let's get into it.

We figured the weather would come into play in a big way today, but I didn't imagine that it would effect a dome game. Alas, the Metrodome roof has collapsed (take a look at the pics on NFL.com...wow), so the Giants and Vikings' game has been postponed till Monday night at Ford Field in Detroit. That will give Favre, Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks an additional day to heal up, but it also makes them all riskier fantasy starts since you won't know until tomorrow whether or not they'll play. Frankly, I'm not high on any of them -- forget about Favre, but also the WRs, who'll be coming back for their first action after an extended absence. Nicks, in particular, is the less likely of the two to play. I just don't see either of them getting a lot of snaps and both are at risk of leaving the game early. Anyway...it certainly makes things even more interesting.

Elsewhere...

Frigid conditions (temps in teens), gusty winds (30-50 mph) and snow (70% chance) will be a factor in Chicago, where the Bears host the Pats. Tom Brady obviously knows how to handle it, but I'm not as confident in Cutler. Matt Forte will probably be given an extra workload, but I wouldn't want to bank on any Bear receiver, or either kicker (Gould, Graham).

It's raining and windy in New York, which could put a damper on the passing and kicking games of the Jets and Dolphins. I'm still starting Santonio, but I don't like any other WR in this game, especially due to the weather.

It's much colder, but less windy, in Buffalo. Peyton Hillis should be the man in that game. I'm worried about Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson, and am benching Johnson in the league where I have safer options (Boldin, Santonio, Jennings).

It's going to be sloppy in Pittsburgh, too. Look for a big game from Mendenhall, but I still don't like Benson's chances against the Steelers' D. Big Ben and Palmer are used to these conditions, so I wouldn't downgrade their receivers too much.

The Chiefs finally ended their charade and ruled out Matt Cassel (appendectomy). Brodie Croyle will get the start against the Chargers' defense, which could mean trouble for Dwayne Bowe. Truthfully, I'd probably still start Bowe (unless I had some slam-dunk alternatives); but I'd be extremely nervous about it.

Brandon Marshall is expected to suit up today and take his chances on Revis Island, but Brian Hartline won't be around to pick up the slack. He's been placed on IR by the Dolphins due to a hand injury.

Ravens TE Todd Heap has been ruled out, as expected, for Monday night. Rookie Ed Dickson will start in his place, and I like his chances against the Texans' pathetic secondary.

Latest upheaval from the world of kicking: Denver's Matt Prater is out with a groin injury. Steven Haushcka was signed to replace him this week, and possibly longer. Prater is widely owned across Fantasyland, and the matchup with Arizona is one of the best. If you're hurting at the position (possibly due to the weather issues discussed above), Hauschka is a sneaky good option.

OK, that's it for this morning. I'll be tweeting the inactives in a sec. Good luck to all Fools!

Week 14 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Michael Vick and Greg Jennings, or bench Jimmy Clausen and Ted Ginn? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for real help with your starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 14 of the 2010 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens at Texans. Aside from the obvious elites, no QB merits a start this week more than Flacco. After holding his own against Pittsburgh, he and his wideouts will be treated to the league’s sorriest pass defense on Sunday. 300 yards and three or four TDs are well within reach.


Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos at Cardinals. With their former running backs coach now calling the shots, look for Moreno to be featured against Arizona’s hapless rush defense. Coming off a 175-total-yard effort in Week 13, Moreno should find similar success, and TDs, as the pressure is eased off Kyle Orton.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers at Redskins. Washington just coughed up 197 yards and four TDs to the Giants, while Blount ran strong vs. Atlanta. With run-stopper Albert Haynesworth suspended for the season, Blount’s path to the end zone gets even smoother.

Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers vs. Chiefs. His hamstring injury appears to be behind him, but his fellow receivers remain out or hobbling. Philip Rivers is overdue for a huge game, and KC’s pass defense isn’t as solid as they appeared last week.

Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders at Jaguars. He has emerged as Oakland’s most lethal receiving weapon, and he’s an equally dynamic threat as a kick returner. Jacksonville’s shaky secondary doesn’t stand a chance against Ford’s speed.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, David Garrard; RBs Jamaal Charles, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte, Chris Ivory, Tashard Choice; WRs Jeremy Maclin, Anquan Boldin, Wes Welker, Derrick Mason, Donald Driver, Robert Meachem, Mike Wallace, Mike Williams (TB), Santonio Holmes.

Roll ‘em back

Eli Manning, QB, Giants at Vikings. Minnesota’s pass defense has been playing extremely well lately while Manning has been just so-so, due mostly to his depleted WR corps. He may get Steve Smith (pectoral) and/or Hakeem Nicks (leg) back this week, but neither is likely to be at full speed Sunday.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills vs. Browns. He was gobbled up by the Vikings last week, and lost two blockers in the process. With CJ Spiller back to steal carries, don’t expect Jackson to find much success, or the end zone, against a defense that’s allowed just four rushing scores all season.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals at Steelers. He managed to reach paydirt against the Steelers in Week 9, but Benson has been mostly underwhelming this season. He’s unlikely to excel, or score again, against the NFL’s toughest run defense.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs at Chargers. Shortly after being held to a measly 13-yard catch by San Diego in the season opener, Bowe emerged as an elite fantasy wideout. But Champ Bailey shut him out last week, and he’ll face the stingy Chargers secondary without Matt Cassel (appendectomy) Sunday. With Brodie Croyle under center, KC’s best bet is to pound their running backs, as Oakland did so successfully last week.


Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals vs. Broncos. Fitz barely ranks among this year’s Top 20 fantasy wideouts, thanks to the Cardinals’ shabby play at QB. Now he must break in another passer (probably rookie John Skelton) while visiting “Bailey Beach,” where Bowe was marooned in Week 13.

More thumbs down: QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Brett Favre; RBs Mike Goodson, James Starks, Danny Woodhead, Pierre Thomas, Maurice Morris, Felix Jones, Jahvid Best, Shonn Greene, Ryan Mathews, Thomas Jones, Reggie Bush, Redskins RBs, Dolphins RBs; WRs Steve Smith (both), Brandon Marshall, Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, Percy Harvin, Danario Alexender, Steve Breaston, Earl Bennett.

TAKING A FLIER

Broncos defense/special teams at Cardinals. Two weeks ago, Rusty Smith made the pathetic Texans defense look like the 2000 Ravens. On Sunday, Skelton could do the same for the Broncos. Denver should blitz the rookie silly, when they’re not stacking the line against Arizona’s subpar rushing attack. The Broncos held the Chiefs to 10 points last week, so it’s not a stretch to project single digits from the Cards.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…neglects to check the weather before finalizing your starting lineup. It’s that time of year again, when gusty winds, snow and sleet can wreak havoc on passing and kicking games. Sloppy weather could be in store in Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Jacksonville, New York, Pittsburgh and Washington this weekend.

Week 13 Heroes & Zeros

This was a great week to start…

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots – Torched the Jets for 326 yards and 4 TDs, without a turnover.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers – Passed for 298 yards and 3 TDs, and added 39 yards as a rusher.
Michael Vick, QB, Eagles – Tallied 302 yards passing, 48 yards rushing and 3 TDs, with just 1 INT.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings – Ran for 107 yards and a TD trifecta. I guess he’s OK.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks – Ran for 83 yards and 3 TDs, plus a 17-yard catch.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles – Ran for 44 yards and 1 TD, and caught 8 passes for 86 yards and another score.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots – Scored twice while rushing for 72 yards.
Chris Ivory, RB, Saints – Rumbled for 117 yards and 2 TDs.
Arian Foster, RB, Texans – Combined for 119 yards and 2 TDs.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants – Totaled 105 yards and a pair of TDs.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants – He had 103 yards and a pair of his own.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts – Collected 14 catches for 200 yards and 1 TD.
Greg Jennings, WR, Packers – Caught 6 passes for 122 yards and 2 TDs.
Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings – Hauled in 5 passes for 105 yards and a pair of scores.

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers – Grabbed 4 passes for 126 yards and 1 TD.

Giants defense – Amassed 4 sacks, 6 turnovers and held Washington to 7 points.
Cowboys defense – Intercepted Peyton Manning 4 times, including 2 returned for TDs.

This was a great week to play against…

Brett Favre, QB, Vikings – Threw an interception on his only pass before getting knocked out of the game.
Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos – Passed for a measly 117 yards without a TD, plus a fumble.
Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets – Against one of the league’s softest secondaries, passed for only 164 yards and 3 INTs, without a score.
Sam Bradford, QB, Rams – Came up small against Arizona, with 187 yards and an INT, without a TD.
Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs – Had just 196 yards and 1 TD on the day.
Eli Manning, QB, Giants – Let the RBs carry the load, throwing for just 161 yards and 1 INT, without a score.
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks – Threw 2 INTs and just 229 yards, with no TDs.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers – Was active, but you wouldn’t know it from the box score.
Donald Brown, RB, Colts – Limited to 4 yards apiece rushing and receiving. Mike Hart got 9 total yards while sharing carries.
Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals – Held to 24 rushing yards.
Keiland Williams, RB, Redskins – Finished with 29 rushing yards.
Brian Westbrook, RB, 49ers – Split carries evenly with Anthony Dixon, and gained just 31 yards.
Maurice Morris, RB, Lions – Ran for a paltry 37 yards against the Bears.
Fred Jackson, RB, Bills – Totaled just 48 yards on the day.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs – The NFL's TD leader posted a goose egg.
Mike Williams, WR, Seahawks – Held catchless before leaving with another injury.
Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys – Caught a 14-yard pass before being lost for the season.
Santana Moss, WR, Redskins – Caught 2 passes for 24 yards.
Brandon Lloyd, WR, Broncos – His two catches for 31 yards led his entire team in receiving.
Steve Johnson, WR, Bills – Just 2 catches for 36 yards.
Mario Manningham, WR, Giants – Ditto.
Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets – He got 39 yards off his 2 receptions.

Waiver-wire wonders prove title-worthy

It’s that magical time of year again, when Santa takes requests at the local mall, true characters are exposed at company holiday parties and fantasy owners lament the injuries and draft-day miscues that cost them a shot at postseason glory.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but…Santa’s a bit over-extended on his credit cards, some people simply shouldn’t drink in public, and bad drafting wasn’t your problem.

Indeed, a quick scan over the rosters of most playoff teams reveals the indisputable truth about successful fantasy play: The real work begins after the draft.

Don’t believe me?

Tell me how confident you’d feel facing this lineup next weekend: Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Lloyd, Steve Johnson, Sidney Rice, Marcedes Lewis, Dan Carpenter and the Seahawks defense.

I manage three formidable, playoff-bound teams, with a few of these players sprinkled on each; but I’m not sure any of my rosters could take down that gang. Of course, the common denominator is that virtually every one of these fantasy sensations went undrafted in the vast majority of leagues.

That’s not all. You could easily contend for a title with a plethora of other waiver-wire wonders, such as Kyle Orton, Sam Bradford, Mike Tolbert, Chris Ivory, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Marshawn Lynch, Tashard Choice, Jacob Tamme, Sebastian Janikowski and the Titans defense.

To be sure, none of the above is infallible. Orton, Bradford, Tolbert and Johnson each had lousy days at the office yesterday. But so did Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Chris Johnson. It happens.

So enough with the excuses, already. Frank Gore’s season-ending injury wouldn’t have been so devastating if you’d picked up Hillis after the season opener, would it? Stop poking holes in your Ryan Mathews voodoo doll, and blame yourself for not jumping on Tolbert when you had the chance. Heck, I don’t feel nearly as bad about taking Miles Austin in the second round, or Matt Schaub in the third, now that Johnson and Vick are in the fold.

We’d all love to set our starting lineups in Week 1 and never make anything but the occasional bye-week adjustments on our way to a 13-0 regular-season record and a first-round bye. But I haven’t seen that happen yet in my two-plus decades as a player. And I don’t think I ever will.

Just something to ponder for those of you whose fantasy season has come to an abrupt, and premature, end. There’s always next season.

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, you need to start with a good draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents can also make a big difference. Here’s a look at a few players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else’s line-up.

Catch ‘em while you can


James Starks, RB, Packers. The rookie bruiser was given the bulk of the backfield workload on Sunday, and he responded with 18 carries for 73 yards. Brandon Jackson saw four meaningless carries, and was relegated mostly to pass-catching duties. Starks is a big back whose talents will likely be utilized even more as the weather deteriorates up North. He could prove to be a genuine late-season gem.

Tashard Choice, RB, Cowboys. I urged you to grab him last week, but that advice went unheeded by many. In fact, Choice is still available in the vast majority of fantasy leagues. After Sunday’s 100-yard, one-touchdown performance, perhaps the doubters will be convinced that Choice is the best back in Dallas. Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett, in particular.

Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys. No, I’m not drinking the silver and blue Kool-Aid. But with Dez Bryant done for the season with a fractured ankle, Williams gets a new lease on his fantasy life. The Cowboys’ upcoming schedule offers favorable matchups with the Redskins and Cardinals, but Williams remains little more than a desperation play. Miles Austin and Jason Witten are more likely to capitalize on Bryant’s absence.

Don’t be fooled

Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Vikings. He looked sharp against the Bills in relief of the injured Brett Favre. Alas, the ageless one isn’t necessarily going to miss his first start since the Vietnam War with a sprained shoulder; and even if he does, the Giants won’t be as accommodating as the Bills were. At the postseason looms, I hope you’re not counting on either Minnesota passer.

Mike Williams, WR, Seahawks. A foot injury will cost the Seahawks’ leading receiver at least one game, and probably more. Though his renaissance is one of the most compelling stories of the NFL season, he’s not so valuable that you should keep him on your bench “just in case.” Feel free to make room for other potential contributors. Amazingly, Sidney Rice is a free agent in nearly half of all leagues.

Todd Heap, TE, Ravens. He won’t be available to help you in Week 14, and most likely not beyond that, either, thanks to a hamstring injury he incurred against the Steelers. You’ll need to go waiver-wire shopping if Heap’s your tight end.

Sunday morning updates - Week 13

Good morning, Fools, and happy Sunday. For most of us, this is the last weekend of the fantasy regular season. I hope all Fools are either set for the postseason or in the hunt for a playoff berth.

For me, a Week 14 bye is at stake in one league, and seeding in the other three. It's all about putting up massive points today. Fortunately, I have Vick and Foster in one league, Shady in two others, and Vick in one more. Thursday was bery, bery good to me...

OK, enough about me. Let's see what's in store for our favorite players today:


All eyes will be on the Vikings' inactives report in less than an hour, when we'll know AP's status. Again, if you own Peterson and don't have Toby Gerhart ready to roll just in case, you've made a huge mistake. One of those guys -- possibly even both -- are in for a big day against the Bills' pathetic run defense.

Big Ben's foot is still acting up, but you can bet he'll start tonight. I don't expect much from him, though. As mentioned in Friday's Starters & Benchwarmers column, he hasn't thrown for more than 1 TD in a game against the Ravens since 2007.

Shaun Hill is out (again), and Matt Stafford is also on the shelves, so the Drew Stanton Experiment returns to Detroit today. Megatron's owners can take some solace in knowing that Stanton connected with him for an 87-yard TD back in Week 6 against the Giants.

For the second straight year, Bruce Gradkowski will end the season on injured reserve, leaving Jason Campbell firmly entrenched as the starting QB in Oakland. Fortunately for those hoping for more glad tidings from Jacoby Ford, the speedster has shown that he can excel with either passer at the controls.

In what is surely one of the most unremarkable "good news" announcements I've heard in some time, Kerry Collins is expected to return to Tennessee's starting lineup today. While this piques my interest in Nate Washington, I wouldn't let Randy Moss anywhere near my starting lineup until he shows up for at least one game as a Titan.

Brian Westbrook practiced Friday after sitting out Wed and Thurs. No worries, he'll start. But how well -- and how much -- will he play against the Packers' run defense? I picked him up in one league, but won't be starting him. Just not expecting big things out of him or the 49ers overall today.

Looks like Tolbert and Mathews will split carries for the Chargers today. If I had to choose between the two, I'd stick with Tolbert, who has been a reliable scorer. And Mathews has an unfortunate knack for disappearing soon after re-appearing.

Addai won't play (for the 6th consecutive week), but Mike Hart is back. Look for him to share carries with Donald Brown, which is bad news for both. Javarris James likely goes back to the sidelines, with Hart more likely to see the goal-line carries.

As I said in Friday's Sporting News column, if you believe Pierre Thomas will be active this week, I've got a pool of subprime mortgages I'd love to sell you...

Jahvid Best is expected to get some carries today, but not as many as Maurice Morris. I don't like either's chances much against the Bears' tough D, but Best's turf toes, in particular, should be nowhere near your starting lineup.

Brandon Marshall is expected to be full-go today; but beware: Hamstrings have a way of acting up in their first game action after an extended absence. You probably have to start Marshall if you own him, but be prepared for him to be limited, or even exit early.

Malcom Floyd will be active today, but Antonio Gates is a huge question mark (some early reports said he was ruled out, but those were apparently erroneous, or at least premature), and V-Jax and Crayton are out. I still think we might see another big game from Seyi Ajirotutu, and possibly even Legedu Naanee. But I wouldn't start either flier over more established wideouts. It's just a hunch; nothing more.

Fret not, Greg Jennings owners. X-rays on his swollen foot were negative, and he will be good to go today. Donald Driver, on the other hand, is still nursing a quad injury and isn't a good fantasy bet regardless of his playing status.

Mike Sims-Walker has already been ruled out of today's matchup.

Jeremy Shockey is no longer on the Saints' injury report, signaling his return to action today.

Jason Hanson has been placed on injured reserve, meaning Dave Rayner will finish the season as the Lions' kicker.

Jeff Reed has been signed by the 49ers and is expected to kick this weekend while Joe Nedney continues to rehab his knee. Shane Andrus has been released.

Kris Brown was brought in for an audition by the Jets but wasn't signed. Nick Folk has officially been placed on notice, as have you.

That's it for now. Make sure you're following my tweets (@ladd_biro) for the inactives and other late-breaking news. Good luck today, Fools!

Week 13 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Drew Brees and Dwayne Bowe, or bench Derek Anderson and C.J. Spiller? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for real help with your starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 13 of the 2010 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Sam Bradford, QB, Rams at Cardinals. He threw three interceptions in his first meeting with the Cardinals, which also was his first game as a pro. Arizona won’t recognize the Bradford they see Sunday, who is playing lights-out despite his supporting cast of no-names.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers at Seahawks. After rushing for nearly 100 yards in Week 12 against the Browns, Stewart appears to be back at full strength. Though Mike Goodson has earned a share of the carries going forward, he has been missing practice this week due to the “stress” associated with his wife’s late-term pregnancy. Hmm. Seattle’s pathetic run defense awaits.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears at Lions. He has been a little better than average over the last several weeks, but at least Chester Taylor is no longer a major competitor for carries. Now Forte faces the team he torched for 201 combined yards and two TDs in Week 1.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets at Patriots. He’s taken a backseat to Santonio Holmes, who is now an every-week fantasy starter. But Edwards should be in your lineup, too, against a Patriots secondary that is coughing up a league-worst 288 passing yards per game.

Jabar Gaffney, WR, Broncos at Chiefs. Denver’s wideouts all had fun the last time these teams met, with Gaffney pulling in one of five passing TDs. Look for Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd and Gaffney to have another fine afternoon against Kansas City’s slumping secondary.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, David Garrard, Eli Manning, Mark Sanchez; RBs Jamaal Charles, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Knowshon Moreno; WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Stevie Johnson, Santonio Holmes, Pierre Garcon, Johnny Knox, Davone Bess, Percy Harvin, Mario Manningham, Mike Williams (TB), Derrick Mason, Dez Bryant.

Roll ‘em back

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers at Ravens. He has been limping through practice on an injured foot – either broken or sprained, depending on whom you believe – but he should play Sunday night. Just don’t count on much against the Ravens’ stingy pass defense. Big Ben hasn’t connected on more than a single TD pass in a game against Baltimore since 2007.

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders at Chargers. McFadden’s production has fallen off precipitously over the past three weeks, and he appears to be wearing down with the heavy workload. The NFL’s second-ranked run defense is an unlikely opponent to allow him to rebound.

Keiland Williams, RB, Redskins at Giants. His 15 minutes of fantasy fame may be over, even though Ryan Torain (hamstring) is unlikely to return this week. James Davis is now sharing backfield carries and Washington’s offensive line isn’t opening holes for either rusher lately.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Bengals vs. Saints. New Orleans continues to hold opposing receivers out of the end zone, while Cincinnati’s starting wideouts were shut down by the Jets in Week 12. Look for both trends to continue this weekend.

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers at Packers. He has caught all three of Troy Smith’s TD passes over the past four games, which tells you all you need to know about Smith’s fantasy value. But Crabtree’s yardage and targets have been mediocre. Green Bay has allowed just 10 passing TDs all season, so don’t expect much from the duo on the frozen tundra.

More thumbs down: QBs Brett Favre, Kerry Collins, Joe Flacco, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell; RBs Ronnie Brown, Maurice Morris, Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Brian Westbrook, Mike Goodson; WRs Malcom Floyd, Santana Moss, Ben Obomanu, Miles Austin, Jacoby Ford, Deion Branch, Donald Driver, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall.

TAKING A FLIER

Seyi Ajirotutu, WR, Chargers vs. Raiders. Vincent Jackson barely made a cameo appearance before injuring his groin; Malcom Floyd is still bothered by a hamstring; Antonio Gates may not play due to his feet issues and Patrick Crayton (wrist) is already ruled out. Ajirotutu and Legedu Naanee may be Philip Rivers’ last healthy wideouts standing, which could open the door for solid production from one or both vowel-blessed receivers.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…fails to check on Adrian Peterson’s playing status on Sunday morning (on your own or via my tweets). He’ll be a game-time decision; and if he doesn’t go, Toby Gerhart could be in for a monster outing against the Bills’ sieve-like run defense.