Rookies: Some bad, some good, but just one Best

Two weeks into the season is too early to pass judgment on anything, much less the relative merits of the 2010 rookie class. But fantasy enthusiasts aren’t known for their patience, so you’ll forgive me for engaging in a little premature evaluation, as it were.

The bad. Following a scintillating preseason, you can count C.J. Spiller’s cumulative rushing yards over two games on both hands (minus a pinky). He’s totaled eight receptions for 31 yards, and has taken a back seat to both Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Don’t give up on him, of course; but he should be nowhere near your starting lineup until he gets his mojo back.

After an ankle injury, and his second fumble in as many weeks, Ryan Mathews has yet to fulfill the lofty expectations placed on him as the heir apparent to LaDainian Tomlinson. It didn’t help that Mike Tolbert looked like an All Pro after replacing him Sunday. Mathews could have returned after having his ankle examined in the locker room, but he watched from the sidelines instead. How this plays out in Week 3 and beyond will be interesting.

Dexter McCluster was a popular free agent pickup after he scored on a dazzling punt return in Week 1. But aside from that highlight-reel play, the multi-talented rookie has been virtually invisible. He’s not worth a roster spot unless and until the Chiefs make him a starting wideout, and perhaps not even then, given Matt Cassel’s struggles.

The good. Unlike Spiller, Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams has built upon his sensational preseason, scoring in consecutive weeks and cementing his role as Josh Freeman’s go-to wideout. The sky’s the limit for this fourth-round steal, who could post stats comparable to those of Marques Colston and Anquan Boldin in their brilliant rookie campaigns.

Dez Bryant’s targets dropped from a whopping 12 in the opener to just two on Sunday. But the electrifying wideout scored on a punt return, and when (if?) the Cowboys get their offense back on track, he should be a consistent contributor, particularly in the red zone.

After missing the entire preseason and Week 1 with a foot injury, Demaryius Thomas showed why Denver made him the first receiver selected in the 2010 draft with a dominating eight-reception, 97-yard debut, including a touchdown, against the Seahawks. His talent clearly dwarfs that of both Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney, so he’s worth picking up for the occasional start in favorable matchups.

Tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Jermaine Gresham are making their presence with the Patriots and Bengals, respectively, and one or both could merit a mid-season flier if they continue to progress. Tony Moeaki is likewise turning heads in Kansas City, but his ceiling is fairly low given the Chiefs’ lackluster passing attack.

Sam Bradford is a clearly player, but there’s no way you can trust a rookie passer in St. Louis with your fantasy team. Maybe next year, Sam.

The Best. Meanwhile, in the NFL backwater that is Detroit, Jahvid Best is staking an early claim on Rookie of the Year honors. In fact, it’s not even a close race at this point. Best has notched five touchdowns already, and he followed his modest rushing performance in the opener with a monster 232-combined-yard outing against the Eagles on Sunday. He appears to be single-handedly elevating the Lions’ moribund offense, and he’s richly rewarding those who risked an early-round fantasy pick on him. Tough matchups with the Vikings and Packers over the next two weeks are no longer relevant with this every-week fantasy superstar.


FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, you need to start with a good draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents can also make a big difference. Here’s a look at a few players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else’s line-up.

Catch ‘em while you can

Mike Tolbert, RB, Chargers – Just when we thought Darren Sproles was the back to own should Mathews go down, Tolbert steps up and proves otherwise with an 85-yard, two-touchdown effort. Mathews’ tweaked ankle should be healed by the weekend, but his fumbling problems and Tolbert’s strong performance could lead to a possible time-share. Grab Tolbert as Mathews’ handcuff at worst, especially if you were carrying Sproles for the same contingency.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills – If you’re in the mood to gamble, grab Lynch and hope that the Packers persuade the Bills to trade him. Buffalo seemed to be showcasing Lynch for the possibility, and Brandon Jackson was just okay in his first start in place of Ryan Grant.

Kevin Walter, WR, Texans – I’m not relenting (yet) on my insistence that Jacoby Jones is the second-best wideout in Houston, but I can’t ignore Walter’s rebound from a lousy 2009 any longer. After catching 11 passes for 144 yards and his second TD of the season, Walter served notice that he is back to his playmaking 2008 form. Meanwhile, he’s owned in roughly 10 percent of fantasy leagues.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos – Thomas is undoubtedly the most talented receiver in Denver, so he’s worth stowing away as a bye-week or injury fill-in. But the rookie faces a rough schedule over the next several games, so don’t count on more big days until the second half of the season.

Don’t be fooled

Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos. He has been fairly impressive in two games against mediocre competition. Now the road gets tougher, with the Colts, Titans, Ravens and Jets on tap over the next four weeks. Let someone else pick him up now. They’ll likely drop him again before Denver’s schedule lightens up in late October.

Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons – His outstanding, three-touchdown afternoon in relief of an injured Michael Turner (groin) was boosted by Jerious Norwood’s early exit and, of course, Arizona’s mediocre defense. Turner is unlikely to miss next week’s start, so if the starter goes down in the future, Snelling’s upside would probably be limited by a healthy Norwood.

Devin Aromashodu, WR, Bears – After an offseason of irrational exuberance, Aromashodu dropped several passes (including one in the end zone) in the season opener and wasn’t even targeted in Week 2. Meanwhile, Earl Bennett has resurfaced and possibly surpassed the speedster on the depth chart. If you can trade Aromashodu to the guy who groaned when you drafted him too early, do it. You can’t say I didn’t warn you.

Preseason column #2: Rookies deserve fantasy love, too

The 2008 fantasy season was notable for many reasons, but none more so than the impact made by its outstanding rookie class.

Matt Forte and Steve Slaton were the brightest stars of the group, finishing the 2008 season among the Top 10 performers at the prized running back position. Chris Johnson very nearly made it a rookie trifecta, coming in at No. 11, and Kevin Smith chimed in at No. 18.

In all, no fewer than 13 first-year backs took their turns in the fantasy spotlight throughout the season, from consistent contributors like Jonathan Stewart to one-hit-wonders such as BenJarvis Green-Ellis. And were it not for injuries, Darren McFadden and Felix Jones may have lined up alongside their classmates in the Top 20.

Two freshman wide receivers joined in on the fun, with Eddie Royal squeaking into the Top 20 and DeSean Jackson not far behind. John Carlson cracked the Top 10 among tight ends, while Dustin Keller quietly posted Top 15 fantasy stats.

Even quarterbacks Matt Ryan – and to a lesser extent, Joe Flacco – made more than a blip on the fantasy radar, with each among the Top 20 performers at their position by year’s end.

While we would be foolish to expect another bumper crop of rookie stars in consecutive years, it’s clear that the NFL is no longer an exclusive fraternity that expects its freshman recruits to fetch water for the veterans at practice and watch from the sidelines on game day.

Several rookies will be expected to step up immediately to upgrade a position of weakness on their teams. Others will undoubtedly be pressed into action ahead of schedule due to injuries or poor play by the veterans ahead of them.

So it behooves every fantasy owner to look closely at the new faces on the fantasy landscape and consider selecting one or two for your squad. After all, Forte and Slaton were instrumental in countless title runs in 2008, and other rising stars are just waiting for their chance to be the next rookie sensation.

Here are the members of the Class of 2009 who I expect to contribute significantly during their inaugural seasons, in order of importance.

Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Cardinals – Am I crazy to include him among the Top 10 in my running back rankings? Like a fox! Wells gives Arizona the prolific running threat they so desperately need, and the rookie will benefit from wide-open running lanes left by opposing defenses committed to reining in Kurt Warner & Company. The team knows what Tim Hightower brings to the table, which is why the NFC champions invested their first-round pick in Wells. He'll be the cream of the 2009 crop of runners and, best of all, you can get him as late as the fifth or sixth round!

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos – Another first-round selection in April’s NFL draft, Moreno offers similar upside to Wells and will be the first rookie taken in most leagues. But bear in mind that Moreno not only must compete against veteran free-agents Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan, but Denver hasn’t produced a Top 25 fantasy rusher since 2005 (Mike Anderson). The diminished passing threat posed by Kyle Orton won’t help.

Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings – Mark my words: Harvin will be the top rookie receiver of '09. Not only should he develop into the team’s top receiving threat before long, but he’ll amass fantasy points as a runner, a kick returner and even as a wildcat quarterback. You’ll be starting him as your WR3 by October.

Donald Brown, RB, Colts – Expected to contribute immediately as Joseph Addai’s understudy, Brown could conceivably take over the starting job should the veteran stumble out of the gates. He should be drafted primarily as Addai’s handcuff, but don’t be surprised if he emerges as an every-week contributor by midseason.

Brian Robiskie, WR, Browns – Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Robiskie is both, having been selected in the second round out of Ohio State and cast into a wide-open competition for a starting gig opposite Braylon Edwards. The rookie isn’t a game-breaking threat, but rather a solid possession receiver with excellent football smarts. He should be starting by Week 1.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles – Philly’s second-round draft pick is considered an ideal complement to star tailback Brian Westbrook, and he’s exceeding his coaches’ lofty expectations in training camp while the starter has been rehabbing an ankle injury. McCoy will be fantasy gold should the injury-prone Westbrook miss real playing time, so the two backs should be handcuffed at all costs.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles – Rookie wideouts are notoriously slow starters, but Maclin could very well match DeSean Jackson's impressive rookie stats by year's end. He should supplant the injury-prone Kevin Curtis as a starter in Philly’s high-octane offense in short order. Maclin is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, which could be early and often with Donovan McNabb at the controls.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions – He’s running neck-and-neck with Daunte Culpepper in camp, and could be starting by Week 1. Stafford has the potential to excel out of the gates with the help of the other-worldly Calvin Johnson. Don’t draft him, and don’t expect Ryan-type numbers from him; but Stafford could emerge as a decent bye-week fill-in should the Lions’ offense start clicking.

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets – Barring an injury to AFC rushing champ Thomas Jones or his electrifying backup Leon Washington, Greene is unlikely to be a consistent fantasy performer in his rookie season. But things change fast in the NFL, and Greene is one of those game-breaking players with the skills to contribute right away given the opportunity.

Where art thou, Michael Crabtree? That’s the same question voiced by 49ers coaches and fans alike. Whether the promising rookie ends his holdout soon or not, he’s missed invaluable practice reps and will struggle to make an impact during his rookie season. Let someone else waste a pick on the diva, who will also have to contend with an unstable quarterback situation when, or if, he decides to report to the team.

Next Monday: A look at my Top 10 Sleepers of 2009.