Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good

Six weeks in, and the 2015 fantasy season is as bizarre as ever.

Hey, you. Yeah you, looking all smug and victorious with Devonte Freeman in your lineup. Get over yourself. You had zero idea that he would amount to anything. You picked Freeman in the middle rounds mostly because you needed another running back and didn’t have any better ideas. You probably didn’t start him until after his Week 4 explosion in Dallas.

You’re not a fantasy genius. You’re lucky as all get out.

And you. That guy who swears he knew DeAndre Hopkins was going to have a breakout season. No, you didn’t. You drafted him because you figured somebody had to catch the ball in Houston, even if they didn’t have a decent quarterback. You’re just as surprised as the person who took a flier on grandpa Larry Fitzgerald in the ninth or tenth round.

You didn’t see any of this coming.

You’re not getting away with anything either, Mr. Andy Dalton lover. You drafted him as a backup, figuring you’d reluctantly use him as a bye-week sub. You were aiming for Ryan Tannehill or Sam Bradford, but your league-mates scooped them up before you could. You held your nose when you took Dalton, so you can stop patting yourself on the back now. We’re not fooled.

And don’t even get me started, you Gary Barnidge owners. Most Browns fans didn’t even know who the guy was until four weeks ago.

Okay, so I’m still a little bitter over losing Jamaal Charles...

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers. I’m on record as being unapologetically anti-Doug Martin. His disappointment-to-delight ratio is ridiculously out of whack. Sims regularly flashes his potential from the backup position, and he’s a useful bye-week or injury sub in PPR leagues even when Martin is around. Given his size/speed combination and excellent hands, Sims should be starting, and probably will be before long. 

Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals. Now relegated to the No. 3 receiver role in Arizona, a fully healthy Floyd still has all the talent that made him a fantasy darling heading into this season. He finally found the end zone on Sunday and should continue to attract more of Carson Palmer’s attention. He will be startable in favorable matchups going forward.

Ben Watson, TE, Saints. Clearly, the Saints game plan ran through Watson on Thursday night. That’s not going to be an every-week thing, but we know from history that Drew Brees loves him some tight ends. Given the dearth of talent at the position league-wide, Watson’s upside makes him eminently roster-worthy.

Don’t be fooled

Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals. You’d think the No. 2 wideout in an offense as potent as Cincinnati’s would be a more consistent fantasy contributor, but Jones never has been. In any given week, he can put up 90-plus yards and a TD (as he did in Weeks 3 and 6) or be virtually invisible (see Weeks 1 and 4). Heading into his bye, Jones remains a flier at best.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings. Diggs has put up solid numbers in the first two games of his NFL career, but tap the breaks on his immediate potential. The rookie could very well emerge as a favorite target of Teddy Bridgewater; but given the low-octane nature of Minnesota’s passing offense, and the presence of Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson, Diggs will surely struggle with consistency. Maybe next year.

Sunday morning updates -- Week 6

Good morning, Fools. FYI, I'll be flying to DC in about 2 hours. I will try to update this post where/when I can, including in-flight; but no guarantees. Also not sure if I'll be able to tweet from the air, so be sure to check NFL.com/inactives or somewhere else for today's inactives. 

Here's what we know so far (as of 8:15 am CT): 

Already ruled out: DeSean Jackson, Victor Cruz, Nelson Agholor

Signs point to Andrew Luck returning for the Colts, but he is clearly not 100%. It's hard to bench a guy like that, but as I wrote in this week's Starters/Benchwarmers column, he's not the same guy we saw in 2004. I'd look elsewhere if you have a safer option at QB.

Shady McCoy appears ready to roll for the Bills today. Buffalo needs all the help it can get with E.J. Manuel under center. McCoy is a so-so option against the Bengals; but I'd have a hard time keeping him out of my lineup. Sammy Watkins (calf) and Percy Harvin (hip) are both questionable to suit up, though Watkins has been talking like he's going to play no matter what all week.

There is some concern that T.J. Yeldon will be sidelined today due to his lingering groin injury. That would leave the Jags' running game in the hands of Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart. We all saw what Robinson could do during a limited stretch last season, but I wouldn't rush to grab him now. Keep an eye on the inactives report if you're banking on Yeldon.

Dion Lewis (abdomen) is good to go today. I like his chances against the Colts thanks to the Patriots' high-octane offense.

It's the first day of the post-Jamaal Charles era in KC, so it will be interesting to see how Charcandrick West and Knile Davis divvy up the workload. The good news is I have a 4-1 record in the league where I owned Charles. The bad news is that I couldn't grab West off waivers. So, honestly, I'm wishing failure on him... Wouldn't be surprised if he has a nice outing against the Vikes, though.

Justin Forsett is a game-time call due to his balky ankle. It appears that he will play; but if he can't, Javorius "Buck" Allen is a sneaky start against the 49ers.

Ryan Mathews is iffy to play on MNF vs. the Giants.

Alshon Jeffery is expected to play today, finally. If you've got him, start him.

Despite the optimism swirling around him this week, don't expect Steve Smith to return today. But next week looks promising.

Odell Beckham, Jr., is questionable heading into the Monday night showdown with Philly, which leaves you with some risk of being left high and dry if he's in your starting lineup. I'm going to take my chances, because he is expected to play; but with hammies, anything can happen. Just beware.

That's it for now. As I said above, I'll try to update this a little later from the airport or the plane. But no guarantees. Good luck, Fools!

Week 6 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Matt Forte and DeAndre Hopkins, or to bench E.J. Manuel and Brian Hartline? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 6 of the 2015 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles vs. Giants. Bradford seems to be getting into a rhythm with Philly’s up-tempo offense, passing for 603 yards and 5 TDs over the last two weeks. Next up: The NFL’s most generous secondary.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans at Jaguars. He’s gotten past his groin injury and reclaimed the workhorse role in Houston’s backfield. Meanwhile, Alfred Blue is dealing with a turf toe, and the Jaguars just made Doug Martin look like a fantasy stud for the first time since his rookie season.

Antonio Andrews, RB, Titans vs. Dolphins. Though he’s part of a committee that includes his running quarterback and Bishop Sankey, Andrews has reached the end zone in both of the games he’s played. With Miami’s league-worst run defense coming to town, and Marcus Mariota in need of run support, Andrews has an excellent chance to continue his positive momentum.

Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals at Bills. Buffalo’s offense is basically down to the JV team, so Andy Dalton should be in firm control of this game throughout. Jones hasn’t seen the end zone since Week 3, but he should have plenty of opportunities against the soft spot in the Bills’ defense.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts vs. Patriots. All signs point to the return of Andrew Luck, which is bad news for Andre Johnson and great news for the speedy Moncrief. While T.Y. Hilton draws the attention of the Patriots’ secondary, Moncrief should be able to capitalize on the deeper routes where Luck excels.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles, Cam Newton; RBs T.J. Yeldon, Dion Lewis, Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Chris Ivory, DeMarco Murray, Melvin Gordon, Charcandrick West; WRs Mike Wallace, Jordan Matthews, Alshon Jeffery, James Jones, Kendall Wright, Allen Hurns, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson.

Roll ‘em back

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts vs. Patriots. It is possible to like a receiver and not his QB in any given matchup. That’s the case this week, as Luck will be forced to drop back often, exposing his ailing shoulder to plenty of big hits behind Indy’s porous line. New England’s secondary has claimed as many interceptions (six) as the touchdowns they’ve surrendered. We haven’t seen the 2014 version of Luck yet, and I don’t expect him to re-appear this week either.

Redskins RBs at Jets. This has turned into a three-pronged backfield with Chris Thompson contributing mostly as a receiver. Alfred Morris hasn’t come close to 100 combined yards in a game since Week 1, and he hasn’t reached the end zone all season. Matt Jones is fighting through a sprained toe. Leave them all alone against the Jets’ stout run defense.

Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals at Bills. Though Bernard is the preferred option over backfield mate Jeremy Hill these days, both backs should have a rough day against the Bills’ ferocious run defense. Hopefully you have safer options.

Travis Benjamin, WR, Browns vs. Broncos. Benjamin is having a career year, but this should be a weekend to forget. John McCown will be harassed mercilessly by Denver’s pass rush, leaving Benjamin little time to find a seam in their stingy secondary. Avoid all Cleveland players in this contest.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills vs. Bengals. The good news is that Watkins (calf) is expected to return this week. The bad news is he’s returning to an offense in disarray. E.J. Manuel will be under center, the Bills’ running game is a shambles and the Bengals are brimming with confidence. Watkins has already complained about a lack of targets, and that’s when he had an accurate quarterback at the controls.

More thumbs down: QBs Matt Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater, Jay Cutler, Kirk Cousins, Colin Kaepernick, Josh McCown, Mike Vick, Ryan Fitzpatrick; RBs Jeremy Hill, Rashad Jennings, Bishop Sankey, Ameer Abdullah, Ahmad Bradshaw, C.J. Anderson, Knile Davis, Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, Andre Ellington, Jonathan Stewart; WRs Pierre Garcon, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, Andre Johnson, Michael Floyd, Marquess Wilson, Percy Harvin, Torrey Smith, Kenny Stills, Martavis Bryant, Jaelen Strong, Nelson Agholor, Markus Wheaton, DeSean Jackson, Rishard Matthews.

TAKING A FLIER

Kamar Aiken, WR, Ravens at 49ers. With Steve Smith (back) highly unlikely to return this week, Aiken should again be Joe Flacco’s main target in a matchup with one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Look for at least one deep ball to Aiken reaching pay dirt.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…wastes your money trying to win big bucks on the weekly fantasy sites. By recent accounts, those sites are rigged for the big spenders who enter hundreds, if not thousands, of rosters using algorithms built to game the system. Wanna play friends head-to-head? Go for it. But don’t throw away your money in contests where the odds are stacked in the pros’ favor. And don’t be surprised if some headline-seeking attorney general tries to shut the sites down outright given all the negative headlines.

Week 5 Heroes & Zeros

This was a great week to start…

QBs

John McCown, Browns – Passed for a whopping 457 yards and 2 TDs, and added 12 yards and another score on the ground, all without a turnover.

Eli Manning, Giants – Torched the 49ers for 441 yards and 3 TDs with an INT, plus 11 on the ground.

Blake Bortles, Jaguars – Passed for 303 yards and 4 TDs, plus an INT, with 21 rushing yards to boot.

Andy Dalton, Bengals – Overcame a tough Seattle defense with 331 passing yards and 2 TDs, plus an INT, along with 18 yards and a rushing TD.

Joe Flacco, Ravens – Passed for 210 yards and 1 TD, and added 2 short TD plunges, without a turnover.

Tom Brady, Patriots – Snuck in a short TD and passed for 275 yards and 2 more, without a blemish.

RBs

Doug Martin, Bucs – Had his best game in years, with 123 rushing yards and 2 TDs, plus 35 receiving yards and a 3^rd TD.

Thomas Rawls, Seahawks – Rumbled for 169 yards and a TD in his second start.

Devonta Freeman, Falcons – Rumbled for 153 yards and a TD, plus 7 receptions for 44 yards.

Justin Forsett, Ravens – Amassed 121 rushing yards and a TD, plus 4 catches for 49 yards, though he left late with an ankle injury.

WRs

Allen Hurns, Jaguars – Reeled in 5 receptions for 116 yards and a TD.

Allen Robinson, Jaguars – Scored twice on 7 receptions for 72 yards.

Julian Edelman, Patriots – Caught just 4 passes but turned them into 120 yards and a TD.

Andre Johnson, Colts – Celebrated his return to Houston with 6 receptions for 77 yards and 2 TDs.

Odell Beckham, Jr, Giants – Pulled down 7 balls for 121 yards and a TD.

DeAndre Hopkins, Texans – Soared in PPR leagues with 11 receptions for 169 yards.

Jaelen Strong, Texans – Scored twice on two catches for 53 yards, including a Hail Mary.

TEs

Antonio Gates, Chargers – Returned with a flourish, catching 9 passes for 92 yards and 2 TDs.

Tyler Eifert, Bengals – Torched the Seahawks with 8 catches for 90 yards and a pair of TDs.

Gary Barnidge, Browns – Had his best game as a pro, with 8 receptions for 139 yards and a TD.

D/STs

Broncos – Generated 4 sacks, an INT, 2 fumble recoveries and a fumble return TD, while holding Oakland to 10 points.

Packers – Registered 3 sacks, 4 INTs, returned one of those INTs for a TD and held St. Louis to 10 points.

This was a great week to play against…

QBs

Peyton Manning, Broncos – Looked his age while throwing for just 266 yards without a score, but with 2 INTs.

Matt Ryan, Falcons – Turned the ball over 3 times while passing for 254 yards and rushing for 20.

Nick Foles, Rams – Coughed up 4 INTs while passing for a meager 141 yards and 1 TD.

Marcus Mariota, Titans – Passed for 187 yards with an INT and not a TD, and ran for 47 yards.

Matt Stafford, Lions – Benched after passing for just 188 yards and 1 TD, with 3 INTs.

                                                               

RBs

C.J. Spiller, Saints – Ran for 10 yards and lost 8 yards on his 3 receptions.

Alfred Morris, Redskins – Ran for only 15 yards.

Ameer Abdullah, Lions – Totaled just 26 yards and lost one of his two fumbles.

C.J. Anderson, Broncos – Those still hoping for production got just 40 combined yards out of him.

Eddie Lacy, Packers – Combined for just 35 yards against the Rams.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Was on his way to a decent game, with 58 rushing and 26 receiving yards, before blowing out his knee.

WRs

Donte Moncrief, Colts – Had a 3-yarder.

Nelson Agholor, Eagles – Just a 5-yarder for the rookie.

Leonard Hankerson, Falcons – Just a 13-yard catch on the day.

Vincent Jackson, Bucs – Limited to a 14-yard reception.

Roddy White, Falcons – Another disappointing effort, with 23 yards on 2 receptions.

Randall Cobb, Packers – He got 23 yards on 3 catches.

Kendall Wright, Titans – Held to 29 yards on 3 receptions.

Terrance Williams, Cowboys – Marginalized with just 2 catches for 30 yards.

Mike Evans, Bucs – Just 41 yards on 3 receptions.

Torrey Smith, 49ers – Grabbed 2 for 42.

Antonio Brown, Steelers – Misses Big Ben, catching just 3 passes for 45 yards.

TEs

Charles Clay, Bills – Held to a 7-yard catch.

Dwayne Allen, Colts – Had a 21-yarder.

Coby Fleener, Colts – Only 9 yards on 2 catches.

Jimmy Graham, Seahawks – Just 30 yards on 3 balls.

Jason Witten, Cowboys – Ruined his 33 yards on 5 catches with a lost fumble.

Travis Kelce, Chiefs – Limited to 35 yards on 3 catches.

Charles, Forsett join growing list of injured fantasy stars

Like a spoon caught in the garbage disposal. That’s how I felt as I watched replay after replay of Jamaal Charles essentially blowing out his knee. Obviously, I felt terrible for the guy, who was writhing in pain on the field.

But it didn’t take long for my selfishness to kick in. (Honestly, it was instantaneous.) There goes my first-round pick! Will he take my fantasy season with him?

Minutes later, I cheered as my No. 2 RB, Justin Forsett, took a fourth-quarter pass 32 yards to put a cherry on top of his stellar rushing day. But my jubilation was short-lived, as I gazed in disbelief at Forsett limping off on an injured ankle.

If I used emoticons, it would look like “The Scream” by Edvard Munch.

My top two running backs, gone just like that. Though Forsett’s injury is comparatively minor, it was enough to put a serious damper on my victory celebration. Will it be the last time my 4-1 team tastes the sweet nectar of fantasy conquest?

Momma said there’d be days like this.

We Charles and Forsett owners won’t get any sympathy from our competitors who’ve been treading water without Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery and other stars. Injuries are part of the game, and managing them well is what often separates fantasy winners and losers.

So I’ve got my work cut out for me. And I’m not the only one. #hellowaiverwire

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars. I gave a tepid endorsement to Allen Hurns last week, and he responded with another strong performance thanks in large part to his quarterback. With Hurns, Allen Robinson and now a healthy Julius Thomas at his disposal, and a favorable schedule ahead, Bortles is worth a flier for those needing help at the position.

Charcandrick West, RB, Chiefs. There’s no replacing Jamaal Charles, but Kansas City is going to have to try. West, an undrafted second-year back, unexpectedly leapt over Knile Davis on the depth chart a couple weeks ago and will presumably get first crack at the lead rushing role. (He took 18 snaps vs. Davis’ four after Charles went down Sunday.) West is considered the better receiver, which is important for PPR leaguers. Though this situation bears watching, for now, West is the guy to target on the waiver wire. If you miss out on him, Davis is a decent pickup as well.

Willie Snead, WR, Saints. Brandon Coleman was all the rage after he scored in his first career game. But it’s been Snead, another undrafted rookie, who has emerged as the de facto No. 2 receiver in the Saints’ passing game. Though this isn’t the high-powered attack we’ve come to expect, Snead is still putting up enough stats to earn some fantasy love.

Gary Barnidge, TE, Browns. After his second 100-yard outing, and his third consecutive game with a TD, it’s time to take the veteran tight end seriously. Though he barely registered a blip on the fantasy radar over his first six NFL seasons, Barnidge has become a trusted target of the suddenly prolific Josh McCown. Just don’t plan to start him right away (see below).

Don’t be fooled

Josh McCown, QB, Browns. Don’t look now, but McCown has put up 1,154 passing yards and seven total touchdowns over his last three games. That’s mighty impressive, especially given the state of Cleveland’s receiving corps. So why the negativity? McCown’s next three opponents are the Broncos, Rams and Cardinals. It doesn’t get much tougher than that.

Andre Johnson, WR, Colts. Was Johnson’s stellar performance against his old teammates a turning point in his season or an aberration? Let’s put it this way: If you own the future Hall of Famer and can trade him for someone of value, do it.