It’s the most bittersweet time of the year

It’s usually a good sign if you’re still reading this column so late into the season. Because if you’re like me, the minute you’re eliminated from the fantasy playoffs, the last thing you want to do is wallow in your misery.

Unless you find it therapeutic to grumble about how some pretty-boy quarterback failed to throw a touchdown pass in Denver.

Or about how Drew Brees picked the wrong week to break out of his slump.

Or how Davante Adams dropped two sure touchdown passes, ruining both his day and Aaron Rodgers’.

I entered the weekend fully confident of victory for both of my squads. But my dreams were dashed in one league the minute Zeke Elliott jumped into that Salvation Army bucket. Tom Brady, Latavius Murray, T.Y. Hilton and Tyler Eifert no-showed, while my foe got just enough help from Zeke and others to pull off the upset.

Fortunately, my other team easily dispatched its overmatched opponent, thanks to Fantasy MVP-In-Waiting David Johnson, Matt Ryan, Jarvis Landry and that pesky Dolphins defense. Immortality (in the form of a small bronze plaque on a cheesy Super Bowl trophy) awaits the Fools next weekend.

Indeed, today is bittersweet for the Chief Fool. I had hoped to pull of the rare two-fer, winning two leagues with almost entirely different rosters. But the fantasy gods weren’t feeling overly generous on Sunday.

Instead, I’ll have more time to help with the Christmas shopping, which is just awesome.

Maybe I’ll send Davante some stickum.

WAIVER WIRE PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling gaps in your roster with the occasional waiver-wire acquisition is also important. At this point in the season, the pickings are slim and your best bet is to stick with the players who got you here. But here's a look at one worth considering anyway, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup when you’re playing for all the marbles.

Catch ‘em while you can

Ty Montgomery, RB, Packers. Available in nearly half of all leagues, Montgomery cemented his hold on the Green Bay backfield with his best performance of the season against the Bears. His heavy workload should continue next week as Aaron Rodgers continues to nurse a sore calf.

Don’t be fooled

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings. According to ESPN, nearly 20 percent of fantasy owners started Peterson this weekend. I hope that’s not true. I also hope those who are competing for a title next weekend won’t make the same mistake. Sadly, the AP we saw on Sunday looked a whole lot like the ineffective player we saw prior to his injury. Blame the Vikings’ offensive line if you like, but Peterson simply can’t be trusted now.

Robert Turbin, RB, Colts. Sure, he vultured two short TD runs from Frank Gore, but that doesn’t suddenly make Turbin roster-worthy. Sunday’s performance is what we in the guru biz call an “aberration,” and you’re unlikely to see it again.

Sunday morning observations -- Week 15

OK, Fools...it's cooooooold outside, and it's crunch time! If you're still reading this, then I assume you're still playing -- as all Fools should be -- so let's go set the table for our Super Bowl berths.

First, a little bragging. I'm in the semi-finals in both my leagues, which is cool since they are almost completely different rosters (only David Johnson and the Denver D are common denominators). I also scooped up the Dolphins D this week to start over the Broncos in one league, which paid off nicely last night. I feel so confident of victory in the other league that I'm not concerned about my D.

I hope you're in a similar situation today. Let's see what's up around the league as we prepare to dominate...

Of course, the biggest news of the day is the return of Adrian Peterson. So why isn't anyone in Fantasyland cheering? Could it be his 1.6 ypc average pre-injury this year? Yeah, I think that's it. Still, I managed to scoop him up in one league, and I'll be watching him (safely on my bench) to see how he performs today. If you're thin at RB, or have a dicey flex call, you can take your chances with AP. His touches will depend on how he feels. Just don't expect miracles, even against a bad Colts D.

Aaron Rodgers will give it a go on his balky calf. I hear lots of folks shying away from him and the Packers WRs today because of the weather. But you have to remember that Green Bay is pretty bad at running, even with Ty Montgomery back there. (James Starks is out.) I don't own Rodgers, but I'd be happy to start him unless I had a handful of other top QBs. I am starting Jordy with confidence, but will keep Davante Adams on my bench because I have plenty of better options.

Melvin Gordon will not play, but Ronnie Hillman is expected to team with Kenneth Farrow in the Chargers' backfield. I understand the hopes folks have for Farrow to pick up where Gordon left off, but I just don't see that happening. Start him only if you have no better alternatives.

Darren Sproles and Donte Moncrief will also be sitting out today with injuries.

Alshon Jeffery will play today, but considering the frigid weather and the fact that he caught his first pass from Matt Barkley in practice on Wednesday, is wouldn't start him. BTW, Marquess Wilson has been placed on IR.

Michael Floyd will not make his debut in a Patriots uniform today, and I'd be shocked if he'd be start-worthy next week, either.

Jordan Reed (shoulder) is expected to play Monday night, but there's no telling how involved he'll be. May be best to go with a safer option.

Both A.J. Green and Julio Jones have been declared out already. Terrible timing for those who invested premium picks in either player. I like Taylor Gabriel's prospects today against that sorry 49ers D. In fact, my title hopes in one league rest pretty squarely on the Falcons, with Matt Ryan, Tevin Coleman and Taylor Gabriel all in my starting lineup.

That's it for now. Heading to church in a bit so not sure if I'll be able to get the inactives out on Twitter or be able to answer your late questions. Good luck, Fools. Keep those title hopes alive!

Week 15 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Matt Ryan and Le’Veon Bell, or to bench Brock Osweiler and Victor Cruz? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 15 of the 2016 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins vs. Panthers. Cousins has been solid, if not stellar, over his last two games, both of which were on the road. But he’ll enjoy some home cooking this week as the Panthers’ soft pass defense comes to town. Even if Jordan Reed continues to play mostly a decoy role, Cousins has plenty of other options to keep busy. And he will.

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns at Bills. You saw what Le’Veon Bell did to the Bills last weekend, right? Crowell is no Bell, but he’s coming off a solid 100-yard outing against the Bengals. Robert Griffin III stole the short TD run, but Crowell couldn’t ask for a better opponent to keep racking up the yards and find the end zone against.

Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons vs. 49ers. Coleman outshined his running mate, Devonta Freeman, in the laugher with the Rams; but owners of both backs should be salivating over this matchup. Nobody has coughed up more rushing scores (19) than the 49ers. Both backs are excellent receivers as well, and they should continue to be busy in both phases, especially if Julio Jones is limited or inactive again.

Mike Wallace, WR, Ravens vs. Eagles. Philly is giving up fantasy points to wideouts in buckets, so look for Wallace to take advantage as Joe Flacco’s big-play receiver. Steve Smith should also get his fair share of attention, but Wallace has a better chance to exploit the Eagles with a long pass or two.

Taylor Gabriel, WR, Falcons vs. 49ers. Matt Ryan proved he doesn’t need Julio Jones to excel, and Gabriel helped make his point. With a delicious matchup in store against the traveling 49ers, the rapidly blossoming wideout should continue to soar, even if Jones and Mohamed Sanu return to the field. Don’t be shy about starting anyone in a Falcons uniform this weekend (except Sanu).

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck; RBs LeSean McCoy, LeGarrette Blount, Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Bilal Powell, Jonathan Stewart, Carlos Hyde, DeMarco Murray, Latavius Murray; WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Jamison Crowder, Sammy Watkins, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Tyreek Hill, Jarvis Landry, Jordy Nelson, Robbie Anderson, Dontrelle Inman, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate.

Roll ‘em back

Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans at Chiefs. Not too many fantasy owners survived their first-round playoff contest with Mariota and his whopping six completions. Those who did should not press their luck in the frozen and hostile confines of Arrowhead Stadium. It will be the coldest game the Hawaiian-born QB has ever played in.

Frank Gore, RB, Colts vs. Vikings. Gore has just two games all season with more than 100 combined scrimmage yards, meaning he typically needs a TD to make you glad you started him. On Sunday, he’ll face a defense that has surrendered just six rushing scores all season. The force is not strong with this one.

Spencer Ware, RB, Chiefs vs. Titans. Ware has been money throughout most of this season, but it’s hard to trust him after he floundered in a favorable matchup with the Raiders last weekend. The Titans are extremely stingy with the rushing yards and TDs. Consider safer options, if you have them.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers at Redskins. When you are regularly out-played by Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn, can you really be called a No. 1 receiver? Methinks not. Benjamin may or may not have been benched late last week for lack of effort, but you should bench him for lack of production regardless. Even in a plus matchup like this.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears vs. Packers. Since Jeffery is returning from a suspension, and not an injury, he doesn’t face the normal worries about being limited in his first game back. What troubles me more is (a) his minimal practice time with new QB Matt Barkley and (b) the wicked cold conditions expected in the Windy City. The ball is going to be hard to handle, and Jeffery doesn’t have enough upside to risk it.

More thumbs down: QBs Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, Matt Barkley, Carson Wentz, Colin Kaepernick; RBs Ryan Mathews, Devontae Booker, Rashad Jennings, Doug Martin, Mark Ingram, Ty Montgomery, Terrance West, T.J. Yeldon, James White, Dwayne Washington, Jerick McKinnon, Chris Thompson, Tim Hightower, Justin Forsett, Duke Johnson; WRs DeAndre Hopkins, Cole Beasley, Cameron Meredith, Michael Crabtree, Travis Benjamin, Rishard Matthews, Sterling Shepard, Allen Robinson, Marvin Jones, Terrelle Pryor, Corey Coleman, Tyler Boyd, Quincy Enunwa.

TAKING A FLIER

J.J. Nelson, WR, Cardinals vs. Saints. With the release of Michael Floyd, and the on-going health limitations with John Brown, Nelson has the perfect opportunity to ramp up his role in the Arizona passing game. New Orleans’ secondary has been in a very giving mood with opposing receivers, and while Carson Palmer hasn’t been exactly sharp, he’s still flinging the ball often.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…overlooks the Saturday night tilt between the Dolphins and Jets. And once again, stay alert to weather conditions, which are expected to be brutal in several NFL cities this weekend. The elements will make it difficult to pass, catch and, especially, kick in certain outdoor stadiums, particularly those in Chicago and KC.

Week 14 Heroes & Zeros

This was a great week to play…

QBs

Tom Brady, Patriots -- Torched the Ravens for 406 yards and 3 TDs, plus an INT.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Passed for 246 yards and 3 TDs without a turnover.

Matt Ryan, Falcons – Rang up 237 yards and 3 TDs without a blemish.

RBs

Le’Veon Bell, Steelers – Had a historically outrageous game, rushing for 236 yards and a TD trifecta. Don't forget the 4 receptions for 62 yards.

Bilal Powell, Jets – Out of nowhere, he rumbled for 145 yards and 2 TDs, and added 5 receptions for 34 yards.

Carlos Hyde, 49ers – Raced for 193 rushing yards and caught a 7-yard TD pass.

Jeremy Hill, Bengals – Ran for 111 yards and 1 TD, and caught 3 passes for 31 yards.

WRs

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs – Hauled in 6 passes for 66 yards and a TD and scored on a punt return, though he lost a fumble.

Jordy Nelson, Packers – Caught 6 passes for 41 yards and 2 TDs.

Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos – Grabbed 11 passes for 100 yards and a score.

T.Y. Hilton, Colts – Caught 9 passes for 115 yards and a TD.

Chris Hogan, Patriots -- Claimed 5 passes for 129 yards and a huge TD.

TEs

Tyler Eifert, Bengals – Reeled in 5 passes for 48 yards and 2 TDs.

D/STs

Falcons – Manhandled the Rams with 3 sacks, 2 INTs, 3 fumble recoveries and TDs on two of those turnovers.

Packers – Collected 5 INTs, a fumble and 3 sacks while holding the Seahawks to 10 points.

Ks

Nick Novak, Texans -- Hit all 5 of his field goals -- from 21, 24, 34, 41 and 52 yards -- and added an XP for good measure.

This was a great week to play against…

QBs

Russell Wilson, Seahawks – Had a horrible outing, passing for 240 yards and 1 TD with 5 – yes, 5 – INTs.

Drew Brees, Saints – His day was nearly as miserable, passing for 257 yards without a score, plus 3 INTs.

Derek Carr, Raiders – Managed just 117 passing yards and no TDs.

Jameis Winston, Buccaneers – He had 184 yards without a TD or turnover.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – Coughed up 3 INTs while passing for 220 yards and 0 TDs.

Marcus Mariota, Titans – Completed just 6 passes for 88 yards and 0 TDs, and ran for 38 yards.

RBs

Melvin Gordon, Chargers – Ran for just 5 yards before leaving with a hip injury.

Matt Forte, Jets – He had 8 yards before going down.

James Starks, Packers – An afterthought, with just 3 rushing yards.

Devontae Booker, Broncos – Ran for 1 yard and caught 2 passes for 10 yards while being upstaged by newcomer Justin Forsett.

Mark Ingram, Saints – Ran for 14 yards and caught a 9-yarder.

Devonta Freeman, Falcons – Yielded to Tevin Coleman while gaining just 18 combined yards as a rusher and receiver.

Spencer Ware, Chiefs – Just 56 rushing yards and a 7-yard catch.

WRs

Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Imploded in New York, offsetting his 10-yard catch with a costly fumble.

Donte Moncrief, Colts – Finished with a goose egg, and an injury.

Travis Benjamin, Chargers – Had a minus-2 yard run, and no catches.

Terrelle Pryor, Browns – Caught a 3-yarder on the day.

Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers- Limited to an 11-yarder.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – Came up short with 3 receptions for 12 yards.

DeVante Parker, Dolphins – Only 14 yards on his 2 catches.

Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs – Returned to catch a 16-yarder.

Allen Robinson, Jaguars – Settled for a 17-yarder? Really?

Michael Crabtree, Raiders – Just 21 yards on 4 receptions.

Ted Ginn, Panthers – Caught 2 passes for 21 yards.

Rishard Matthews, Titans – Held to a 26-yard catch by Denver.

Amari Cooper, Raiders – Had 5 catches but only went 29 yards with them.

Quincy Enunwa, Jets – He got his 29 yards on 3 receptions.

DeAndre Hopkins, Texans – Led his team with 33 yards on 2 catches, sadly.

Brandon Marshall, Jets – He had 3 for 33.

Jamison Crowder, Redskins – Stuck with 2 balls for 37 yards.

Mike Evans, Buccaneers – Limited to 42 yards on 4 receptions.

TEs

Jordan Reed, Redskins – Returned from injury to snag a 10-yarder.

Jimmy Graham, Seahawks – Caught a 16-yard pass in Green Bay.

Dennis Pitta, Ravens -- Only managed 18 yards on 4 receptions.

Delanie Walker, Titans – Just 30 yards on 2 catches.

Bell yes! Steelers RB stands tall while Big Ben gets small

Sunday was a Tale of Two Steelers.

Le’Veon Bell entered the pantheon of all-time great fantasy performers with his 236-rushing-yard, 62-receiving-yard, 3-TD pounding of the Bills on Sunday. If you had Bell in your lineup, you could have teamed him with the cast of The Golden Girls and still vaulted into the second round of your playoff bracket.

Then again, if you were relying on Ben Roethlisberger for postseason glory, the last thing you want to do today is read a fantasy column. Even this Pulitzer-worthy tome. Roethlisberger’s zero-TD, three-interception debacle resulted in shattered TV screens across Fantasyland and reminded veteran players that what Big Ben giveth, he so often taketh away.

While Bell lapped the field among the weekend’s fantasy studs, there was no shortage of laggards to keep Roethlisberger company in the back of the pack.

For the second consecutive week, Drew Brees burned the owners he had carried all season, with a stat line eerily reminiscent of Big Ben’s. Russell Wilson tossed five – yes, five! – interceptions against the Packers. Derek Carr blew a gasket on Thursday night and Marcus Mariota completed six – yes, six! – passes against the Broncos.

Both Melvin Gordon and Matt Forte succumbed to injuries before registering a fantasy point, putting many of their owners in a hole that proved far too deep to overcome. And Devonta Freeman mysteriously disappeared while his teammates were racking up 42 points against the lowly Rams.

Speaking of the Falcons, who said Matt Ryan would shoot blanks without Julio Jones? Atlanta’s gunslinger came through with flying colors for those who trusted him, with ample help from Tevin Coleman and the rapidly emerging fantasy darling, Taylor Gabriel.

Meanwhile, Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins continued their season-long slides to irrelevance, Kelvin Benjamin put up another stinker, Donte Moncrief laid a goose egg before pulling a hammy and the ageless Larry Fitzgerald wilted in the South Florida rains.

Then on Sunday night, yet another story unfolded. Let’s call it a Tale of Two Divas. Odell Beckham, Jr. reminded us what elite wideouts look like. Dez Bryant? Not so much…

Here’s hoping you found yourself on the right side of the boom-or-bust ledger this weekend.

WAIVER WIRE PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling gaps in your roster with the occasional waiver-wire acquisition is also important. At this point in the season, the pickings are slim and your best bet is to stick with your regular starters. But here's a look at a couple of players worth considering anyway, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup down the stretch.

Catch ‘em while you can

Bilal Powell, RB, Jets. Powell took over the Jets backfield when Matt Forte exited early with a knee injury, racking up 179 combined yards and 2 TDs against the generous 49ers defense. If Forte’s injury keeps him sidelined, Powell’s skills as a rusher and receiver can be exploited against the Dolphins in Week 15.

Robbie Anderson, WR, Jets. Friday’s “Flier of the Week” continued to profit from the attention lavished on him by his new quarterback. Bryce Petty once again targeted Anderson 11 times on Sunday – nearly as many targets as Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa combined – resulting in six receptions for 99 yards. PPR leaguers in need of a high-volume flex option could do worse than start Anderson against Miami.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears. Remember him? Jeffery’s four-game suspension ended this week, meaning he is eligible to return to face the Packers. Matt Barkley has played well enough to consider Jeffery a viable option for WR-challenged contenders in Week 15 and beyond.

Don’t be fooled

Kenneth Farrow, RB, Chargers. Melvin Gordon’s hip injury will almost surely throw the Chargers backfield – and his fantasy owners – into a tizzy. Farrow carried the load nicely in Gordon’s absence – both in the rushing and passing games – but don’t expect the rookie to be handed the workhorse role. Look for Ronnie Hillman, and possibly even former Giant and current practice-squader Andre Williams, to team with Farrow in a time-share arrangement that makes them all unreliable for fantasy purposes.

Justin Forsett, RB, Broncos. Yes, the well-traveled Forsett out-ran and out-received Devontae Booker on Sunday. That’s more bad news for Booker’s owners than good news for those contemplating an investment in Forsett. Considering that Denver ran the ball a whopping nine times (for 18 yards), this is not a backfield worth banking on.

DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins. Parker had been coming into his own as a play-making complement to Jarvis Landry. But with the season-ending injury to Ryan Tannehill, Parker is likely to revert to his boom-or-bust ways as he works on his rapport with Matt Moore. Landry should maintain his dominance of Miami’s short passing game, but the long balls to Parker will be harder to replicate.

-->

Sunday morning observations -- Week 14

Good morning Fools, from 39,000 feet en route from DFW to Orlando, where I will be working the media for the 2016 Road to Recovery Conference & Tribute, a life-changing, week-long, all-expenses-paid experience for nearly 100 combat-wounded veterans and their families. It's hosted by the Coalition to Salute America's Heroes, a leading veterans service organization that I cannot say enough good things about. If you're looking for a group to support with your holiday donations, please consider the Coalition. See more here: saluteheroes.org.

Now, back to the important stuff: Week 14 of the NFL regular season and Week 1 of most fantasy league playoffs! I'm pleased to report that I have a bye in my big-money league, but I'll be duking it out today in my other league as the 3rd seed (despite scoring the most points during the season).

[Quick sidebar]: I think I've come up with the perfect tie-breaker for playoff seeding: See what your records would be if you swapped schedules. In the league where I'm the 3rd seed, I finished with an 8-5 record. However, had I played the same schedule as the two guys above me at 9-4, I would have been 10-3 and 11-2 respectively, and the 2nd-seeded team would have been 6-7! In other words, by sheer luck of the draw (randomized schedule), one guy is sipping fruity drinks by the pool today enjoying his bye while I'm fighting to make it to the 2nd round.

Well, every parent knows what to say next, right? Life's not always fair!

OK, enough about me. Let's take our usual spin around the NFL to find the news we can use to dominate in our first-round matchups:

Arguably the biggest news of the day is that Julio Jones will be a game-time decision with his turf toe injury. You may have read that the beat writer for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is saying that Julio will be "a decoy at best." That's obviously not what you want to hear if you're banking on Julio or Matt Ryan. It's almost always a terrible idea to sit your studs in a playoff contest, and I'm glad I don't have to make that decision. But depending on your other options, you need to consider benching both Julio and Ryan. (By the way, Mohamed Sanu has already been declared out, so Taylor Gabriel could be a very busy receiver today.)

Trevor Siemian appears to be on track to play, which is great news for both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Assuming their QB is active, don't hesitate to start either WR against the Titans' mediocre pass defense.

Doug Martin has been just so-so since returning from injury in Week 10. And now he'll have to contend for touches not just with Jacquizz Rodgers but also Charles Sims, who was activated by the Bucs yesterday. Not sure if Sims will be active today, but it's not a good sign for Martin in the stretch run. I'm benching him today (in favor of Thomas Rawls) and suggest you consider the same if you have a viable alternative.

Similarly, Rashad Jennings will get some more competition for carries as Shane Vereen is expected to rejoin the Giants backfield alongside rookie Paul Perkins. I'm no fan of Jennings to begin with, and this news only reinforces my view.

It looks like Kirk Cousins will be getting his favorite target back today as Jordan Reed is expected to play against the Eagles. Start him if you've got him.

Mark Ingram is also expected to be active and start as usual. Tim Hightower should be nowhere near your starting lineup.

Roughly 30% of fantasy teams still have Julius Thomas on their roster. But the oft-injured TE is once again on IR. Drop him (even in keeper leagues) and find someone who might be able to help you down the stretch.

Others confirmed or almost certainly out: Chris Ivory, A.J. Green and Dorial Green-Beckham.

And once again, there is uncertainty with the Pittsburgh kicker situation. Chris Boswell is still nursing an abdomen injury, which could lead to another fill-in game for Randy Bullock. It's probably best if you just look elsewhere for your kicking points, especially since the weather in Buffalo is forecast to be, well, very Buffalo-like.

Other games that could be adversely affected by the elements: Bengals @ Browns, Redskins @ Eagles, Seahawks @ Packers, Cowboys @ Giants and Cardinals @ Dolphins (wind/rain).

That's it for now. I'll have the inactives and other late-breaking news via Twitter shortly. Good luck, Fools!

Week 14 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Ezekiel Elliott and Jordy Nelson, or to bench Bryce Petty and Christine Michael? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 14 of the 2016 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers vs. Saints. Winston has cooled off over the last three games, though two of those contests came against the Chiefs and Seahawks. He and Mike Evans should reacquaint themselves in this matchup, though, as the Bucs try to keep pace with Drew Brees & Co. New Orleans’ secondary believes in the spirit of giving, so look for Winston to do plenty of taking.

Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks at Packers. Green Bay’s run defense is light years away from its early season heroics, having transformed from stingy to sucky. Rawls should have no trouble maintaining his positive momentum from Week 13, especially given the frigid conditions on the frozen tundra, which should put a slight damper on the passing attacks.

Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals at Browns. This could be another frosty affair favoring the running games. Despite Rex Burkhead’s advances, Hill remains Cincinnati’s lead rusher, and they love to utilize him at the goal line. Cleveland has surrendered 13 rushing TDs in 12 games. Look for Hill to make it 14-for-13.

Ted Ginn, WR, Panthers vs. Chargers. Wondering where all of Kelvin Benjamin’s and Greg Olsen’s stats have gone? Look no further than Ginn, who has racked up 241 receiving yards and 3 TDs over the last three games. As you may recall, Ginn was a late-season bloomer in 2015 as well, so don’t be surprised if he continues his surge.

Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants vs. Cowboys. The familiar mantra is that Dallas’ defense is playing much better than anticipated, but they’ve still given up a ton of passing yards (more than 276 per game) and a whopping 20 TDs through the air. Of course, they’ll be heavily focused on Odell Beckham, Jr., which means Shepard will again be covered by lesser defenders. He should be a busy man Sunday night.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer; RBs LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Jonathan Stewart, Frank Gore; WRs Donte Moncrief, Tyler Boyd, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Marshall, Jordan Matthews, Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, Tyrell Williams, Jamison Crowder, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith, Michael Thomas, Julian Edelman, Taylor Gabriel.

Roll ‘em back

Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans vs. Broncos. Mariota has helped lead many a grateful owner to the fantasy postseason, but this isn’t the week to expect heroics. Denver’s top-ranked pass defense is not to be trifled with, and despite coming off a week of rest, the young gunslinger will surely be tested by his opponents’ relentless pass rush and world-class corners.

Devontae Booker, RB, Broncos at Titans. Trevor Siemian is on track to reclaim his starting job, which is great news for the Broncos’ passing game. For his part, Booker will be facing an imposing defensive line that has surrendered just six rushing scores in 12 outings. His ceiling isn’t high enough to justify the risk.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles vs. Redskins. Washington offers one of the most favorable matchups for opposing rushers, but Mathews is unlikely to exploit his good fortune. He’s likely to be limited coming off a knee injury, and he’ll re-join a crowded backfield in which both Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood have carved out their respective turf. He may luck into a goal-line plunge, but Mathews figures to be a low-volume performer on Sunday.

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars vs. Vikings. I hate to pick on A-Rob two weeks in a row, but he deserves it. He simply isn’t getting the job done, especially against elevated competition like the Broncos and this weekend’s opponent. Look for safer options.

Rishard Matthews, WR, Titans vs. Broncos. Matthews is on a stellar roll coming off his bye, notching seven TDs over his last eight games. But just as Mariota will be facing his toughest test of the season, so will Matthews. Neither is likely to help you advance to the second round of your playoffs.

More thumbs down: QBs Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Brock Osweiler, Jared Goff; RBs Rashad Jennings, Jerick McKinnon, Tim Hightower, James Starks, Carlos Hyde, T.J. Yeldon, Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon, Wendell Smallwood, Chris Ivory; WRs Will Fuller, Victor Cruz, John Brown, Marvin Jones, Tavon Austin, Travis Benjamin, Allen Hurns, Randall Cobb, Cameron Meredith, Adam Thielen, Corey Coleman, Terrelle Pryor, Michael Floyd.

TAKING A FLIER

Robby Anderson, WR, Jets at 49ers. I’ll begin by making clear there’s no way I’d start Anderson in the first round of the playoffs. But I still wouldn’t be surprised if he soars. If you actually watched Monday night’s game, you saw Bryce Petty direct 11 passes his way in the second half alone. Anderson dropped several of them, but he did snag a nice long TD reception. Against the soft 49ers secondary, Anderson should continue to build on his obvious rapport with the Jets’ new signal-caller.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…fails to factor in the weather this weekend. Blustery conditions are possible in several parts of the country, and could tilt your lineup decisions between two otherwise equal options. Remember, kickers are expendable and often shouldn’t be trusted in slippery and windy elements.