Week 1 Heroes & Zeros

This was a great week to start…

QBs

Peyton Manning, Broncos – Arguably the most dominating performance in the history of fantasy football, with 462 yards and 7 TDs.  If you didn’t win your matchup with Manning, you should give up now.

Eli Manning, Giants – Didn’t quite measure up to big bro, but 450 yards with 4 TDs, even countered by 3 INTs, is pretty salty.

Colin Kaepernick, 49ers – Served notice that he’s for real, with 412 passing yards and 3 TDs, plus 22 rushing yards.

Matt Schaub, Texans – Posted 346 yards and a TD trio, plus an INT.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Passed for 333 yards and 3 TDs, with one INT.

Philip Rivers, Chargers – Only had 195 yards, but that included 4 TDs and one pick, plus an 18-yard gallop.

RBs

Adrian Peterson, Vikings – Raced for 93 yards and 2 TDs, and added four catches for 18 yards and another score.

LeSean McCoy, Eagles – Ran for 184 yards and a TD, plus a 5-yard catch.

Reggie Bush, Lions – Accumulated 90 rushing yards and 4 receptions for 101 yards and a TD.

WRs

Victor Cruz, Giants – His salsa routine was on frequent display while reeling in 5 catches for 118 yards and a TD trifecta.

Anquan Boldin, 49ers – San Fran wins the award for best trade of a 6^th-round draft pick.  Reeled in 13 passes for 208 yards and a TD.

A.J. Green, Bengals – Took 9 receptions 162 yards and 2 TDs.

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – Turned 5 catches into 161 yards and 2 TDs.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – Collected 80 yards and 2 TDs on 8 passes.

Wes Welker, Broncos – Hauled in 9 passes for 67 yards and a pair of scores.  We’ll forgive the fumble.

Julian Edelman, Patriots – Scored twice while catching 7 balls for 79 yards.

Jordy Nelson, Packers – His 7 receptions went for 130 yards and a TD.

Andre Johnson, Texans – He was money in PPR leagues, catching a dozen balls for 146 yards.

TEs

Jared Cook, Rams – Began his St. Louis tenure on a high, with 7 catches for 141 yards and 2 TDs.

Julius Thomas, Broncos – His 5 receptions produced 110 yards and 2 TDs.

Vernon Davis, 49ers – Took 6 passes and turned them into 98 yards and a pair of scores.

Jason Witten, Cowboys – Scored twice on 8 catches for 70 yards.

Owen Daniels, Texans – Turned 5 catches into 67 yards and 2 TDs.

Jordan Cameron, Browns – The sleeper favorite caught 9 balls for 108 yards and a TD.

D/STs

Chiefs – Registered 6 sacks, 2 INTs and defensive TD and held Jags without a score (just a safety).

This was a great week to play against…

QBs

Cam Newton, Panthers – Gets off to another slow start, with just 125 passing yards and 1 TD, plus 38 on the ground.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – Held to 191 passing yards, 1 TD and an INT.

RBs

Trent Richardson, Browns – Just 47 rushing and 30 receiving on 2 catches.

Lamar Miller, Dolphins – Only 3 yards rushing and a 7-yard catch against the Browns, and Daniel Thomas poached the short TD run.

David Wilson, Giants – May have fumbled (twice) his way out of a starting job after his 19-yard disaster on Sunday night.

Pittsburgh’s committee – Accumulated 46 yards total rushing and receiving.

Chris Ivory, Jets – No surprise he sputtered, gaining 15 yards on the day.

Montee Ball, Broncos – Just 24 yards in his NFL debut.

Gio Bernard, Bengals – The rookie won’t take over just yet. He debuted with 22 rushing and an 8-yard catch.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts – Out-produced by Vick Ballard, with just 26 rushing yards and a 7-yard reception.

Stevan Ridley, Patriots – Was on a nice roll until he fumbled; then played sparingly and finished with just 46 rushing yards.

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – Only 43 yards on the ground and 2 catches for 9 yards.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – Just 45 yards and never caught a pass.

WRs

Roddy White, Falcons – Rumored to be playing with a high ankle sprain, he looks like it, with just 19 yards on 2 catches.

Mike Wallace, Dolphins – Still hasn’t gotten on the same page as his QB, finishing with a 15-yard catch.

Kenny Britt, Titans – Also reeled in a 15-yarder.

T.Y. Hilton, Colts – Off to a slow start with just 20 yards and 3 catches.

Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Hounded by the Giants all night and limited to 4 receptions for 22 yards.

Lance Moore, Saints – Squandered a great matchup with only 2 for 23.

Chris Givens, Rams – Only 27 yards on 2 catches.

Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – Just 30 yards on 4 balls.

Calvin Johnson, Lions – Limited to 3 catches for 34 yards.

Eric Decker, Broncos – He dropped a pass in the end zone and finished with 2 catches for 32 yards.  Ouch.

Greg Jennings, Vikings – Only 3 receptions for 33 yards in his new jersey.

Calvin Johnson, Lions – What a difference a few inches can make.  Could have had 2 TDs, but instead settles for 37 yards on 4 catches.

Cecil Shorts, Jaguars – Managed only 40 yards on 3 receptions.

TEs

Zach Sudfeld, Patriots – Promising rookie was held without a catch.

Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – Only 6 yards on 2 receptions, plus a lost fumble.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings – Just 2 receptions for 27 yards.

Fantasy trends emerge, for now, in Week 1

Ladd Biro

My old geometry teacher used to say that it’s impossible to draw a trend line through a single data point, which is wise counsel for those quick to extract meaningful conclusions from the first week of the 2013 NFL season.

Then again, Mr. Wilson (name changed to protect the nerdy) never played fantasy football.  And I hated geometry.

Here are some observations from Week 1 that may or may not be early indicators of sustainable trends in Fantasyland:

•     We may never witness a more dominating fantasy performance than Thursday night’s gem from Peyton Manning.  At least not until next Sunday, when he faces off against the depleted secondary on his brother’s squad.
•      San Francisco wins the award for Best Trade of a 6^th Round Draft Pick with the offseason acquisition of Anquan Boldin.  Colin Kaepernick actually looked like a more dangerous quarterback with Boldin (and Vernon Davis) than he did last season with Michael Crabtree. 
•     Danny Amendola limped off the field after aggravating his groin injury.  Later, Tom Brady engineered another fourth-quarter comeback.  Some things never change.
•     I warned you last month that Lamar Miller’s next big fantasy day will be his first. Still waiting…
•      David Wilson wishes his starting job was as secure as Miller’s.
•      Jordan Cameron delivered on his sleeper status.  Zach Sudfeld apparently is still sleeping.
•      If Mr. Wilson was available, I’m sure he could calculate the percentage increase in Julius Thomas’ production from his first two seasons (1 reception, 5 yards) to his 2013 output (5 receptions, 110 yards, 2 TDs).  I’m just going to call it 5,627% and declare that Thomas is worth a flier.
•      Reggie Bush looks terrific in his new Lions uniform, but his owners are playing with fire if they aren’t hedging their bets with Joique Bell.
•     I’m not overly concerned about slow starts by C.J. Spiller, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant and T.Y. Hilton.  They’ll surely overcome their opening-week jitters.
•     I’m very worried, however, about Maurice Jones-Drew, Stevan Ridley, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings and Cecil Shorts. 
•     On a related note, it’s official: Jacksonville is the worst professional football team on the planet.  They could make Terrelle Pryor look like the next Manning this Sunday.
•     It must be a very gloomy day in Pittsburgh, after their injury-riddled debacle against the Titans.  I’ve been looking forward to the debut of promising rookie Le’Veon Bell (foot), but will anyone be left standing when he returns?
•     Contrast the Steelers’ fate with that of the Cowboys, who watched Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and star cornerback Mo Claiborne all laying facedown on the turf Sunday night.  Each returned to action, Dallas beat the Giants in their home-away-from-home and Jerry Jones is once again (prematurely) clearing space for another Lombardi Trophy.
•     Roddy White apparently played Sunday with a dreaded high ankle sprain, and it showed.  Those who drafted him were expecting more than a decoy.  Given the tendency of such injuries to worsen without rest, it’s not too early to consider safer options.  White could miss some time in the weeks ahead.
•     Did the Jets really beat the Bucs?  I’m still incredulous.
•     Eddie Lacy just might be the workhorse Green Bay has been looking for since Ryan Grant’s heyday.  His arrow is pointing up big-time.
•      Who knew it would take Sam Bradford to release Jared Cook’s inner beast?

 More likely than not, half of the above observations will be turned on their heads in the weeks to come.  Mr. Wilson would expect nothing less.

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Da’Rel Scott, RB, Giants.  There’s no telling what forms of torture Tom Coughlin is inflicting on David Wilson right now, but no back in the league has a more tenuous hold on his starting job.  Scott took over after Wilson’s second fumble Sunday night and was effective as both a rusher and receiver.  He’s worth a provisional pickup, unless the Giants bring in a veteran.  (My Magic 8 Ball says Willis McGahee.)

Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins.  Mike Wallace picked up where he left off after a lousy preseason, but at least his presence took the pressure off his counterpart.  There’s little doubt that Ryan Tannehill trusts Hartline.  He’s worth a pickup as a bye-week substitute and the occasional start against subpar competition.

Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos.  One-week wonder?  Very possibly, given that prior to the season opener, Thomas’s NFL resume was virtually blank.  Then again, when Peyton Manning takes a shine to you, very good things can happen.

Don’t be fooled

Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots.  It’s tempting to jump at Edelman after his career-best performance, but his results were skewed by the absence of Rob Gronkowski and the inexperience of his fellow receivers.  If he was that good, we’d have seen it more often over the last four years; and there wouldn’t have been talk of cutting him this preseason. Grab Edelman if you’re desperate; but don’t expect him to be a significant part of the Patriots’ game plan going forward.

Jerome Simpson, WR, Vikings.  If you’ve played this game for any amount of time, you know better than to believe in Simpson, one of the most unreliable wideouts in the game. Sunday’s outing was his first in Minnesota with more than 100 receiving yards.  And he’s still looking for his first TD.

Sunday morning updates - Week 1

Week 1 is finally here in all its glory.  Can I get an "Amen!?"

Here's the news you need to use as you make your final lineup decisions for your Week 1 match ups:

EJ Manuel (knee) is good to go.  Not that you'd want to start him, but this definitely makes me feel better about rolling with Stevie Johnson.  Should also be good for CJ Spiller, since the Patriots won't be able to focus solely on stopping the running game.

In a fairly significant surprise, the Jets announced that Chris Ivory will split carries in Week 1 with Bilal Powell.  So those of you desperate enough to start Ivory now have even more reason to think better of it.  And no, don't go grabbing Powell!

Arian Foster and Ben Tate will split touches Monday night as Foster eases back into game shape.  You have to start your top pick, but this gives those with flex decisions some extra incentive to roll with Tate.  There are plenty of better options out there, but perhaps not on your roster.

DeAndre Hopkins (concussion) will play Monday night, but I would let him get some reps on your bench for a week or so before trusting him as a starter.

Both Malcom Floyd and Eddie Royal are expected to play Monday night for the Chargers.  But the guy I'm most interested in watching is Vincent Brown.  He's the one with all the upside.

Roddy White is active, so you have to start him.  But there's worry that he has a high ankle sprain.  No telling whether he will hold up the entire game or not.  It's unlikely you have someone on your bench with more upside, though; so stick with him and hope for the best.

Gronk is out, as expected.  It will be very interesting to see how Brady distributes his passes outside of Amendola.  Will it be TE Sudfeld or rookie WR Kenbrell Thompkins?  Or both?  Fellow rookie WR Aaron Dobson is inactive with a hammy.

That's it for now.  Make sure you're following me on Twitter for all the inactives and other late-breaking news.

Good luck, Fools!

Week 1 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Matt Ryan and C.J. Spiller, or to bench Terrelle Pryor and Santonio Holmes? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 1 of the 2013 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts vs. Raiders.  We’ll soon find out just how putrid the Raiders are.  Luck and his wideouts are coming off a strong preseason and should have their way with Oakland’s sieve-like secondary.   

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers vs. Packers.  You can bet the Green Bay brain trust has been squarely focused this offseason on how to shut down Colin Kaepernick in the opener; but they’d better not take their eyes off Gore.  The veteran still has plenty of tread left on his tires, and he pounded the Packers’ defense the last time these teams met.

Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams vs. Cardinals.  Arizona is sporting a re-tooled defense as the new season kicks off, but it will take time to gel.  Richardson has two other backs breathing down his neck, so you can bet he’ll do everything possible to solidify his starting job.  Given the Rams’ thin receiving corps, a strong running game will be Sam Bradford’s best friend.

Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys vs. Giants.  If trends hold, these two teams will score at will and the New Yorkers will leave their home-away-from-home victorious.  Romo should have a big game against the visitors’ banged-up secondary, with all his key weapons feasting on a fantasy bounty.

Lance Moore, WR, Saints vs. Falcons.  It’s always nice to start players that will be participating in shootouts, and this game certainly qualifies.  Both QBs are likely to drive their teams up and down the field with scant resistance.  Moore will see his share of targets, most likely including one that concludes in the end zone.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Matt Stafford, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick, Mike Vick, Matt Schaub; RBs Steven Jackson, David Wilson, DeMarco Murray, Reggie Bush, Ahmad Bradshaw; WRs Jordy Nelson, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Antonio Brown, Anquan Boldin.

Roll ‘em back

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers vs. Seahawks.  He got off to a slow start last season, and he hasn’t exactly looked sharp during this preseason.  Meanwhile, one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses – the same one that held Newton to 141 passing yards and no TDs in Week 5 last year – is coming to town. Don’t be surprised if he begins his 2013 campaign with another stinker.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Cardinals at Rams.  Imagine that…an Arizona running back with injury issues.  Meet the new back; same as the old back.  Given the Cardinals’ offensive line woes and Mendenhall’s balky knee, there’s little hope for optimism that this rushing attack is going anywhere soon. 

Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers at 49ers.  With Aaron Rodgers under center, it’s easy for Green Bay to abandon the run when it gets off to a slow start.  That’s the fate that likely awaits their rookie runner, who draws a stout rush defense in his debut outing.  Lacy will have his days; but it won’t be Sunday.

Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins vs. Browns.  Ryan Tannehill has yet to demonstrate a strong rapport with his new receiving toy.  Meanwhile, Wallace will be shadowed by shutdown corner Joe Haden.  He’s a tough sit, but consider it if you have safer options.

Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings at Lions.  Christian Ponder is no Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers, as his new wideout has undoubtedly learned.  Jennings is an accomplished veteran, but it could take him a few weeks to get in sync with his mediocre quarterback.  

More thumbs down: QBs Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman; RBs Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller, Monte Ball, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Ivory, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, all Steelers RBs; WRs Steve Smith, DeAndre Hopkins, Malcom Floyd, Kenny Britt, Sidney Rice, all Jets and Raiders WRs.

TAKING A FLIER

Zach Sudfeld, TE, Patriots at Bills.  It’s a little early to trust a rookie tight end, but those waiting for Rob Gronkowski to return could do much worse than his replacement.  Sudfeld is coming off a strong preseason, and aside from Danny Amendola, Tom Brady’s receiving options are all unproven.  You know that won’t keep him from slinging it around in the opener.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…thinks it’s too early to scan the pre-game inactives list.  Several fantasy stars have Qs and Ds by their names heading into Week 1, and teams will be reluctant to risk a season-long setback to their key players.  As always, I’ll be tweeting prior to the games to alert you to any eleventh-hour developments.

My final draft of the preseason

My local league of buddies held its annual draft on Sunday night.  It's a 10-man PPR league.  I drafted from the 8 hole.  Here's the squad that will be leading me to another championship:

Pick 1.8: LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles.  Love him in PPR leagues, particularly this late in the first round.  The RB is the true beneficiary of Chip Kelly's offense, so this could be a career year for Shady.

Pick 2.3: Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys.  Amazingly, Megatron went with the pick just before mine.  I had a feeling a WR run was about to take off, so I jumped in and took a chance that a solid RB would be there on the swing back.  As you know, Dez is my top-rated wideout, so I'm loving this pick.

Pick 3.8: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars.  If he's healthy, MJD will be a terrific RB2.  I'll be saying a prayer for his foot.

Pick 4.3:  Andre Johnson, WR, Texans.  I can't believe he slid this far, especially in a PPR league.

Pick 5.8: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons.  Very happy to get an elite QB this late.

Pick 6.3: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers.  I had intended to take a TE with one of these picks, but I didn't like the value.  He'll be another injury worry; but when healthy, Jordy gives me a trio of game-breaking WRs.

Pick 7.8: Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants.  I realize he may be past his elite years, but this is awfully far for him to fall.

Pick 8.3: Chris Ivory, RB, Jets.  Yuck.  I neglected my RBs a bit too long.

Pick 9.8: Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers.  I've stolen him around here in every draft.  Word today is that he is aiming for a Week 2 return.  I won't believe that till I see it, but clearly there's a great deal of upside and he should be a more-than-solid RB3 soon enough.

Pick 10.3: Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers.  Yep, you got it.  Kaep slid so far that even I decided I couldn't pass him up.  Not a big fan, but he could certainly prove me wrong and, if nothing else, he's awesome trade bait.  Love him as my backup QB.

Pick 11.8: Seahawks defense/special teams.  The 49ers and Bears were picked shortly before me, but I got my top unit anyway.  Continued a nice run on defenses.

Pick 12.3: Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns.  I'd like him a lot better as my TE2, but he's going to have to come through for me now.  It could happen.

Pick 13.8: Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars.  With my WR corps, I can afford to await his return from suspension.  Once he gets up to speed, he could come up big.

Pick 14.3: Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles.  Time to handcuff Shady.

Pick 15.8:  Randy Bullock, K, Texans.  Six of one, half dozen the other.

Pick 16.3: Zach Sudfeld, TE, Patriots.  I swung for the fences with my last pick.  Glad he wasn't on the others' radar.

There you have it.  Now it's time to go to battle!

Ten burning questions heading into Week 1

Now that our drafts are behind us (they are, aren’t they?), all we can do now is wait for Thursday night…and dream up scenarios in which our late-round fliers evolve into next year’s elites.

So as we ponder the fate of the squads we’ve painstakingly assembled, here are 10 burning questions that should be answered as 2013 Opening Weekend unfolds:

        1.     How healthy are Robert Griffin III, Arian Foster, Maurice Jones-Drew, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, Roddy White, Wes Welker and other nicked-up stars?  Last year at this time, all eyes were on Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles, who each were returning from serious injury.  Another All Pro cast of walking wounded is expected to suit up for their first significant action of the season this weekend, with lingering concerns hanging over assorted body parts. 

  

        2.     Who will emerge from obscurity?  Last season, Alfred Morris, James Jones and Martellus Bennett became prized free-agent acquisitions after stellar Week 1 performances.  Which players will we be scrambling for next week?  Zac Stacy?  Joique Bell?  Ryan Broyles?  Zach Sudfeld?

        3.     Will Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson take the next step to elite-level fantasy QBs?  Joe Flacco is the reigning Super Bowl MVP, and yet he went undrafted in many leagues despite his exceptional postseason run.  Meanwhile, Kaepernick lost the Super Bowl but won the hearts of countless fantasy enthusiasts with his multi-dimensional play.  He and Wilson are true wild cards that could tip the balance of power in any league.

        4.     Will the Eagles’ offense explode or implode under Chip Kelly?  Following a terrific preseason, Michael Vick has first crack at executing Kelly’s up-tempo offense.  LeSean McCoy should be the biggest beneficiary of the new scheme, but Vick must improve on his decision-making and ball-protection to make it all work. 

        5.     How will Peyton Manning distribute the love?  Those who made Demaryius Thomas one of the first five receivers off the board won’t be cheering if Welker snags 10 or 12 balls on Thursday night.  Eric Decker’s owners are equally nervous to see how the new pecking order shakes out.

        6.     Can anyone get the ball to Stevie Johnson?  Even if rookie EJ Manuel (knee) suits up, which is still very iffy, what are the chances he can make multiple connections to his top wideout?  Johnson is a solid fantasy receiver, but he can’t throw the ball to himself.  His season could get off to a very slow start, especially if Jeff Tuel is under center.

        7.     Is Zach Sudfeld the next Aaron Hernandez (on the field)?   The 6’7”, 260-pound undrafted tight end is arguably the late-round flier with the highest ceiling.  He’ll have a golden opportunity to excel while Rob Gronkowski sits out the first couple of weeks (at least).  If Sudfeld produces early on, he could become a fixture in the Patriots’ high-flying offense.

        8.     How will the Steelers’ RB committee shake out?  The latest indications are that newly acquired Felix Jones will get the start on Sunday, with Isaac Redman spelling him first.  This is probably a backfield to avoid altogether until rookie Le’Veon Bell returns from his foot injury.

        9.     Is John Fox the new Mike Shanahan?  Denver’s head coach seems intent on reprising his predecessor’s maddening approach to the Broncos’ backfield rotation, with Ronnie Hillman, Montee Ball and Knowshon Moreno all possible starters or benchwarmers.  Stay away until someone, most likely Ball, breaks through the clutter. 

        10.  Will the Jets offense cross midfield?  Anyone invested in Chris Ivory or, well, that’s about it, wants to know.  Seriously, only Miley Cyrus’ foam finger is pointed in a more appalling direction than this offense.

After another interminable offseason, these questions and many more will finally be answered in just a few short days.  And I can’t wait.

See you on the other side!

Final rankings now posted

OK, Fools...it's crunch time.  Most of us have participated in at least one "real" draft.  I have my last one tonight, and I know many of you still have one or more to go.

I've made my FINAL (I hope) updates to my QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST and Top 100 rankings and posted them at www.scribd.com/laddbiro.  I urge you to download these most recent files if you still have a draft to come.  Not a lot of changes, but there are enough to warrant a new look.  Plus some updated commentary on certain players.

Good luck to all Fools this season!  It's gonna be another fun ride...