Don’t snooze on this year’s sleepers

It’s the time of year when fantasy enthusiasts obsess over draft order and which players will be available when the time comes to make that fateful first-round draft pick.  Beast Mode or Shady?  Megatron or A-Rod?  Miller or Bud?

As important as your initial pick can be, it pales in comparison to the handful of selections you’ll make – or miss – several rounds later.  After all, as happy as you may be to land Doug Martin or Alfred Morris this year, they won’t be the bargain they were to the savvy players that stole them late in last season’s draft and rode them to the postseason.

Fantasy veterans know the secret to great drafting is not simply choosing the best players available, but doing so no earlier than necessary.  You may share my belief that T.Y. Hilton is on the verge of a breakout season; but you’re hurting yourself – and, worse yet, begging for ridicule from your opponents – if you pull the trigger too early. 

Who are this year’s hidden gems?  Let’s take a look at my Sleeper Picks of 2013 – several players poised to out-perform their current ADP (average draft position). 

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans.  In my book, there’s no better fantasy backup than Schaub, who’s seemingly always good for 4,000-plus yards and more than 20 TDs in a healthy season.  This year, another play-making weapon (see below) has been added to his arsenal opposite Andre Johnson, promising even more upside.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers. Bell has the look of this year’s Doug Martin. Pittsburgh loves big workhorse backs, and his competition for carries has proven to be mediocre at best.

Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams.  The race is on to succeed Steven Jackson in St. Louis, and Richardson has the inside track.  The second-year back has breakaway speed, a strong burst and good hands.  He’ll almost certainly open the season as the starter.  If he holds onto the job, he’ll blow away his current ADP.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts.  Andrew Luck is the real deal.  Reggie Wayne is getting up there.  Hilton came into the league with his quarterback and showed all the signs of being poised for a breakout sophomore campaign.  Don’t miss out on this high flier.

Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers.  Danario Alexander is lost for the season and Malcom Floyd (knee) is out until Week 1 at best.  Brown has locked down a starting job and will be given every opportunity to soar.  Philip Rivers desperately needs a reliable target, and a healthy Brown fits the bill.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans.  Make no mistake: Houston believes its first-round prize is the explosive weapon they’ve lacked for years opposite Andre Johnson.  He should be fully recovered from his mild concussion by Week 1.  Give Hopkins a couple more weeks to get his bearings and he’ll be ready to slot in as your WR3.

Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns.  It’s hard to like anything associated with Cleveland’s passing game, but Cameron could be the exception.  He’s had an excellent preseason and is clearly in sync with his quarterback.  The over-sized, yet deceptively fast receiver should blossom in Norv Turner’s offense.  Scoop him up late and enjoy the upside.

Zach Sudfeld, TE, Patriots.  He’s been turning heads in New England all preseason.  With Rob Gronkowski in jeopardy of missing Week 1, Sudfeld is expected to step in right away.  If he continues to impress, he could fill Aaron Hernandez’s role in the Patriots’ offense.  That alone makes him well worth a flier.

Next week: My oft-imitated, always controversial, yet magically delicious Perfect Draft.

Round 1 of the Fool's 2013 Positional Rankings now posted!

It's always with a sense of relief that I announce that my first round of positional rankings are now done.  Phew!

You can find my 2013 rankings, and Fool's Take, on the top fantasy QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Ks and D/STs here: www.scribd.com/laddbiro.

I'll get the Top 100 compilation up soon.  These will have to suffice for now!

You'll find some surprises, as always; and, no doubt, you'll think I'm crazy on some of my picks.  Hey, it's no fun if you don't go out on a limb once in a while, right?  If I run with the crowd, I might as well just publish an ADP list.

My hope is that you use my rankings, along with ADP lists you can find anywhere, to help craft your own Perfect Draft in a couple of weeks.  I'll update my lists every Tuesday through the end of the preseason.

Enjoy, Fools!

Don’t bank on huge returns from this year’s rookie class

Six rookies made impressive debuts during the 2012 season.  Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson set a high bar for this year’s freshman quarterbacks, while Doug Martin, Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson put up the gaudiest production for a trio of first-year backs since the bumper crop of 2008 (Matt Forte, Chis Johnson, Steve Slaton).

No receivers or tight ends finished among the Top 20 at their positions, however.  I guess that’s what happens when the pick of the litter (Justin Blackmon) is banished to the aerial wasteland of Jacksonville.

So what are we to make of this year’s newcomers?  

Remember that when evaluating the fantasy potential of any rookie, talent is rarely the most decisive factor.  More relevant is the opportunity presented to the player, which is also a multi-faceted equation.

Does the newcomer have a clear path to a starting gig?  Will he join a high-powered offense, or one whose punter is its most lethal weapon?  Is he healthy heading into the season, or has he missed invaluable preseason reps due to nagging injuries?

With these variables in mind, let’s examine the Class of 2013 and assess its members’ likelihood of shining during their inaugural seasons.

GIVE THEM A CHANCE

LeVeon Bell, RB, Steelers.  No team values a big workhorse back more than Pittsburgh, and Bell has the look of an every-down player.  He’s blessed with good hands, deceptive speed and outstanding athleticism.  The Michigan State product is fully expected to be the opening-week starter, despite tweaking his knee during training camp.

Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals.  A preseason hamstring injury has slowed his progression, but the first runner drafted in April is expected to supplant BenJarvus Green-Ellis at some point this season.  Just don’t invest too high a pick on him.

Montee Ball, RB, Broncos.  Those expecting Ball to win the starting job outright are in for a big letdown, as head coach John Fox has rarely entrusted rookie backs with a heavy load.  Pass protection is mandatory in Denver’s scheme, and Ball has struggled in training camp.  Look for the rookie to be eased in via committee as the season progresses.

Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers.  Green Bay hasn’t had a viable fantasy back since Ryan Grant in 2009.  The team believes Lacy can be the stud they’ve lacked, but the Packers will still live and die by the pass.  If you can grab him cheap, you might get some value.

Zac Stacy, RB, Rams.  This fifth-round pick from Vanderbilt has a chance to start at some point this season, given the unproven talent ahead of him.  For now, the job is Daryl Richardson’s to lose.  Grab Stacy late and you just might end up with a bargain.

Tavon Austin, WR, Rams.  St. Louis didn’t use the eighth-overall draft pick on Austin to groom him for the future.  His diminutive stature makes him risky, but Percy Harvin Lite is an electrifying, multidimensional weapon that can score from anywhere on the field.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans.  Houston finally has a talented young wideout to line up opposite Andre Johnson and provide coverage nightmares for opposing defenses.  Give him a few weeks to get acclimated to the speed of the NFL, and Hopkins could become a reliable fantasy backup.

LOOK, BUT DON’T TOUCH

Geno Smith, QB, Jets.  With only Mark Sanchez in his way, Smith will almost surely get his chance to start.  But the offensive woes in New York run far deeper than Sanchez, making Smith’s prospects for early success dubious at best.

EJ Manuel, QB, Bills.  Buffalo invested a premium pick on this strong-armed, but raw, prospect.  Like Smith, he faces subpar competition (we’re looking at you, Kevin Kolb), so Manuel will get his moment in the limelight.  Still, he’s at least a year away from fantasy relevance.

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings.  He need only climb over two mediocre veterans to earn a starting role opposite Greg Jennings, which isn’t too tall an order for a receiver with his credentials.  But in Minnesota’s pass-challenged offense, Patterson’s talents will likely be squandered.

Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots.  If not for New England’s remarkably miserable track record with rookie wideouts, you’d think the team’s second-round pick would offer huge upside.  Only Julian Edelman stands between Dobson and significant face time with Tom Brady.

Robert Woods, WR, Bills.  He’s fully expected to earn the starting job opposite Stevie Johnson, but that role has rarely translated into fantasy value. 

Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals.  With Jermaine Gresham ahead of him, the best tight end of his draft class will be hard-pressed to make a fantasy impact in his freshman campaign.

Next week: A look at the Sleeper candidates of 2013.

August 26: The Perfect Draft

PPR Mock Draft with the Sporting News Experts

They're coming fast and furious now, Fools.

Just participated in my 3rd mock draft of the preseason with the Sporting News Fantasy Source Experts.  This was our only PPR draft, so it was interesting to see how differently things played out.

You can see the entire draft on the Fantasy Source in the next day or so.  For now, here's what I did from the 7 slot in a 12-man league.

Pick 1.7: C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills.  Would've been happy getting him with the 3rd pick.  Ecstatic that he slid this far.  Yes, I have a man-crush on CJ this season.  (For reference, two years ago I was head-over-heels for Shady McCoy.  Last year, AJ Green was my guy.)  I was sold on Spiller even before I read this quote from his offensive coordinator: It's real simple.  We're going to give him the ball until he throws up. So he's either got to tap out or throw up on the field. Let's just put it that way.

Pick 2.6: Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  As far as I'm concerned, I won the first two rounds.  Got my top QB and my #2 RB.

Pick 3.7: Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers.  It's easy to forget he was the #6 fantasy WR in the league last year.  And yet he was the 12th WR off the board tonight.  I get that; I was actually upset that Randall Cobb was snagged right before this pick.

Pick 4.6: Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers.  I would have taken DeMarco Murray, but he went at 4.5.  Brown should be a PPR machine this year, so I'm probably better off.  That said, my RB corps will suffer.

Pick 5.7: David Wilson, RB, Giants.  Amazing how picked-over the RBs were at this point.  I thought hard about taking Jason Witten, but felt I had to grab my RB2 here.  If Wilson remains the starter and gets the majority of the carries, this will be a great pick.

Pick 6.6: Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers.  Alas, Witten was gone, as was Gonzo.  I guess Davis was a good pick, because Martellus Bennett went next!  To me, the gulf between those two TEs is vast.

Pick 7.7:  T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts.  He's on my target list in every league this season.  One of my favorite sleepers, I foresee big things for Hilton as Reggie Wayne continues to slip another step or two.

Pick 8.6: Mark Ingram, RB, Saints.  The pickins were slim indeed.

Pick 9.7: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers.  Wish I knew which back will take the lead this year in Carolina.  I guess if we knew, J-Stew would either go much higher, or much lower.

Pick 10.6: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans.  Another one of my sleeper picks, this rookie has huge upside working opposite AJ.  That said, I just missed out on Justin Blackmon, who I would have preferred here.  Hopkins may have slid another round.

Pick 11.7: Fred Jackson, RB, Bills.  Possibly the most valuable handcuff in the NFL, mostly because he has plenty of tread left on his tires.  He could probably start for half the teams in the league.  When you own Spiller, who admittedly has an injury history, F-Jax is absolutely mandatory.

Pick 12.6: Seahawks defense/special teams.  The 49ers went one pick before, but Seattle is my top DST.

Pick 13.7: Matt Schaub, QB, Texans.  Once again, he lasts way too long.  I'll take him here every time.

Pick 14.6: Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles.  You can guess the reaction this pick elicited.  And I probably pulled the trigger a couple of rounds early.  But all signs point to Cooper being the WR2 in Philly this year.  Given the other available options, I held my nose and took the racist jerk.

Pick 15.7: Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers.  He could be Pittsburgh's starting back at some point this season.  For what that's worth.

Pick 16.6: Matt Prater, K, Broncos.  I generally prefer to take my kicker in the penultimate round so I can get one of the 3-4 elite options I prefer.   Especially when there's no other player on the board that I give a damn about.

Pick 17.7: Brandon Lloyd, WR, FA.  He's become my go-to flier in the last round.  I figure Lloyd has gotta land somewhere soon; and when he does, he just might become a factor.

There you have it.  Love my QBs.  A little concerned about my RBs. WRs are solid, but probably won't carry my team.  Oh well.  It's always hard to love your team in a 12-man league.

Preseason Column #1: Old Faces in New Places

Have you been paying attention this offseason?  Quick, where will Rashard Mendenhall be running this year?  How about Shonn Greene?  Whose uniform will Greg Jennings be wearing?  Who’s the new starting tight end in Tennessee?  Who’s kicking in San Francisco?

Once again, the roster of fantasy-relevant players changing zip codes this season is extensive.  I counted more than 60, and that doesn’t include guys like Michael Turner, Beanie Wells and Brandon Lloyd, who are still looking for work.

And while this year’s merry-go-round spun no more quickly than in recent years, the ride always ends the same: with precious few players boosting their fantasy stock in new jerseys.

Last year, only Peyton Manning (coming off a season lost to injury) and Brandon Marshall measurably improved their fortunes with new teams.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Vincent Jackson got modest bumps, and Danario Alexander emerged in mid-season after the Chargers plucked him off the scrap heap.  But that’s it, sports fans.

Meanwhile, following the historic trend, the list of team-swapping duds was exhaustive.  Tim Tebow, Brandon Jacobs, Peyton Hillis and Laurent Robinson vanished from the fantasy landscape, and several other stars with great expectations mostly labored in vain.

So, as we survey the NFL’s continuously shifting landscape, we are justifiably pessimistic about most of the carpetbaggers’ prospects.  Here’s a quick look at the most significant offseason moves of 2013, broken down by the projected impact on each player’s fantasy value.

MOVIN’ ON UP – Look for improved production from these five.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Cardinals – There’s nowhere to go but up for Mendy after last year’s season of discontent.  But is he the solution to Arizona's perennial rushing woes?  Don’t bank on it.

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets – He’ll get his shot to start for a team in desperate need of a reliable bell cow.  The oft-injured former Saint has no competition to speak of, but will the Jets ever penetrate the red zone?

Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots – Wes Welker Lite may be Tom Brady’s only reliable receiver when the season begins.  Amendola will be featured on every (other) fantasy expert’s sleeper list; which means, by definition, he’s no sleeper.

Jared Cook, TE, Rams – The underachieving former Titan has developed an instant rapport with Sam Bradford in training camp.  He’s worth a late-round flier.

Phil Dawson, K, 49ers – The sure-footed former Brown will finally get a chance to mop up for a real offense.

COMIN’ BACK DOWN – These players will be hard-pressed to match last year’s results.

Reggie Bush, RB, Lions – He had a good run in Miami, but he’s joining a pass-first offense in Motown.  I just can’t see Bush cracking the Top 20 this season.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts – He’ll begin his tenure in Indy nursing yet another foot injury.  The old Bradshaw was more talented than Vick Ballard and Donald Brown put together, but injuries and shared carries may conspire against him. 

Shonn Greene, RB, Titans -- Instead of two-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust in the Jets offense, he'll now underachieve as Chris Johnson's backup.

Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings – He walked out of Green Bay and, pfffttttt....just like that...his elite status is history.

Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks – Hip surgery will cost him most, if not all, of his first season in Seattle. 

Brandon Myers, TE, Giants – He benefitted from the dearth of talent around him in Oakland; but he’ll be the third option, at best, in New York.

CALL IT A WASH – For better or worse, these players should post comparable results to last season.

Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals – Arizona’s offensive line is a sieve, and he’s years past his prime.  Even Larry Fitzgerald won’t be enough to salvage his fantasy value.

Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs – Little more than a fantasy backup as a 49er, Smith will be an afterthought in KC.

Matt Flynn, QB, Raiders – Even if he wins the starting job, Flynn won’t be roster-worthy in most leagues. 

Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons – Now on the wrong side of 30, the hard-charging workhorse will celebrate more wins in Atlanta; but his second-tier status will likely hold steady.  

Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers – Moves from one crowded backfield to another.

Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins – His production slipped last year in Pittsburgh, and Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to propel him back to elite status.

Wes Welker, WR, Broncos – If only he could find a decent quarterback to get him the ball, Welker might make a name for himself.

Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers – It’s been a while since Boldin has been an every-week fantasy starter; but he’ll still have his moments on the left coast.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears – He finally emerged in 2012 and Jay Cutler will welcome a reliable safety valve.

Dustin Keller, TE, Dolphins – Mostly a bye-week fantasy starter as a Jet, he’ll retain that status in Miami.

Delanie Walker, TE, Titans – Walker has upside now that he’s out of Vernon Davis' shadow; but his ceiling is low in Tennessee.

David Akers, K, Lions – Kicked to the curb after an erratic season in San Francisco, Akers will be roster-worthy again in Detroit.

Josh Brown, K, Giants – Should have more opportunities now that he’s in New York, but Brown is still far from elite.

Lawrence Tynes, K, Buccaneers – With Connor Barth (ACL) sidelined for the season, Tynes will remain a borderline fantasy starter.

OFF THE RADAR – These players are likely to be written about only in the past tense from now on.

QBs: Jason Campbell (Browns), Matt Cassel (Vikings), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Titans), Matt Hasselbeck (Colts), Kevin Kolb (Bills), Colt McCoy (49ers)

RBs: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), Mike Goodson (Jets), Peyton Hillis (Bucs), Felix Jones (Eagles), Willis McGahee (FA), Michael Turner (FA), Leon Washington (Patriots), Beanie Wells (FA)

WRs: Davone Bess (Browns), Austin Collie (49ers), Josh Cribbs (Raiders), Brandon Gibson (Dolphins), Devery Henderson (Redskins), Darrius Heyward-Bey (Colts), Domenik Hixon (Panthers), Brandon Lloyd (FA), Laurent Robinson (FA), Kevin Walter (Titans), Titus Young (FA)

TEs: Anthony Fasano (Chiefs), Kellen Winslow, Jr. (Jets)

Ks: Billy Cundiff (Jets), Shayne Graham (Browns)

Preseason Column Schedule

August 12: A look at the Rookie Class of 2013 and positional rankings posted

August 19: The Sleepers

August 26: The Perfect Draft