Don’t bank on huge returns from this year’s rookie class

Six rookies made impressive debuts during the 2012 season.  Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson set a high bar for this year’s freshman quarterbacks, while Doug Martin, Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson put up the gaudiest production for a trio of first-year backs since the bumper crop of 2008 (Matt Forte, Chis Johnson, Steve Slaton).

No receivers or tight ends finished among the Top 20 at their positions, however.  I guess that’s what happens when the pick of the litter (Justin Blackmon) is banished to the aerial wasteland of Jacksonville.

So what are we to make of this year’s newcomers?  

Remember that when evaluating the fantasy potential of any rookie, talent is rarely the most decisive factor.  More relevant is the opportunity presented to the player, which is also a multi-faceted equation.

Does the newcomer have a clear path to a starting gig?  Will he join a high-powered offense, or one whose punter is its most lethal weapon?  Is he healthy heading into the season, or has he missed invaluable preseason reps due to nagging injuries?

With these variables in mind, let’s examine the Class of 2013 and assess its members’ likelihood of shining during their inaugural seasons.

GIVE THEM A CHANCE

LeVeon Bell, RB, Steelers.  No team values a big workhorse back more than Pittsburgh, and Bell has the look of an every-down player.  He’s blessed with good hands, deceptive speed and outstanding athleticism.  The Michigan State product is fully expected to be the opening-week starter, despite tweaking his knee during training camp.

Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals.  A preseason hamstring injury has slowed his progression, but the first runner drafted in April is expected to supplant BenJarvus Green-Ellis at some point this season.  Just don’t invest too high a pick on him.

Montee Ball, RB, Broncos.  Those expecting Ball to win the starting job outright are in for a big letdown, as head coach John Fox has rarely entrusted rookie backs with a heavy load.  Pass protection is mandatory in Denver’s scheme, and Ball has struggled in training camp.  Look for the rookie to be eased in via committee as the season progresses.

Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers.  Green Bay hasn’t had a viable fantasy back since Ryan Grant in 2009.  The team believes Lacy can be the stud they’ve lacked, but the Packers will still live and die by the pass.  If you can grab him cheap, you might get some value.

Zac Stacy, RB, Rams.  This fifth-round pick from Vanderbilt has a chance to start at some point this season, given the unproven talent ahead of him.  For now, the job is Daryl Richardson’s to lose.  Grab Stacy late and you just might end up with a bargain.

Tavon Austin, WR, Rams.  St. Louis didn’t use the eighth-overall draft pick on Austin to groom him for the future.  His diminutive stature makes him risky, but Percy Harvin Lite is an electrifying, multidimensional weapon that can score from anywhere on the field.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans.  Houston finally has a talented young wideout to line up opposite Andre Johnson and provide coverage nightmares for opposing defenses.  Give him a few weeks to get acclimated to the speed of the NFL, and Hopkins could become a reliable fantasy backup.

LOOK, BUT DON’T TOUCH

Geno Smith, QB, Jets.  With only Mark Sanchez in his way, Smith will almost surely get his chance to start.  But the offensive woes in New York run far deeper than Sanchez, making Smith’s prospects for early success dubious at best.

EJ Manuel, QB, Bills.  Buffalo invested a premium pick on this strong-armed, but raw, prospect.  Like Smith, he faces subpar competition (we’re looking at you, Kevin Kolb), so Manuel will get his moment in the limelight.  Still, he’s at least a year away from fantasy relevance.

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings.  He need only climb over two mediocre veterans to earn a starting role opposite Greg Jennings, which isn’t too tall an order for a receiver with his credentials.  But in Minnesota’s pass-challenged offense, Patterson’s talents will likely be squandered.

Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots.  If not for New England’s remarkably miserable track record with rookie wideouts, you’d think the team’s second-round pick would offer huge upside.  Only Julian Edelman stands between Dobson and significant face time with Tom Brady.

Robert Woods, WR, Bills.  He’s fully expected to earn the starting job opposite Stevie Johnson, but that role has rarely translated into fantasy value. 

Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals.  With Jermaine Gresham ahead of him, the best tight end of his draft class will be hard-pressed to make a fantasy impact in his freshman campaign.

Next week: A look at the Sleeper candidates of 2013.

August 26: The Perfect Draft

PPR Mock Draft with the Sporting News Experts

They're coming fast and furious now, Fools.

Just participated in my 3rd mock draft of the preseason with the Sporting News Fantasy Source Experts.  This was our only PPR draft, so it was interesting to see how differently things played out.

You can see the entire draft on the Fantasy Source in the next day or so.  For now, here's what I did from the 7 slot in a 12-man league.

Pick 1.7: C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills.  Would've been happy getting him with the 3rd pick.  Ecstatic that he slid this far.  Yes, I have a man-crush on CJ this season.  (For reference, two years ago I was head-over-heels for Shady McCoy.  Last year, AJ Green was my guy.)  I was sold on Spiller even before I read this quote from his offensive coordinator: It's real simple.  We're going to give him the ball until he throws up. So he's either got to tap out or throw up on the field. Let's just put it that way.

Pick 2.6: Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  As far as I'm concerned, I won the first two rounds.  Got my top QB and my #2 RB.

Pick 3.7: Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers.  It's easy to forget he was the #6 fantasy WR in the league last year.  And yet he was the 12th WR off the board tonight.  I get that; I was actually upset that Randall Cobb was snagged right before this pick.

Pick 4.6: Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers.  I would have taken DeMarco Murray, but he went at 4.5.  Brown should be a PPR machine this year, so I'm probably better off.  That said, my RB corps will suffer.

Pick 5.7: David Wilson, RB, Giants.  Amazing how picked-over the RBs were at this point.  I thought hard about taking Jason Witten, but felt I had to grab my RB2 here.  If Wilson remains the starter and gets the majority of the carries, this will be a great pick.

Pick 6.6: Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers.  Alas, Witten was gone, as was Gonzo.  I guess Davis was a good pick, because Martellus Bennett went next!  To me, the gulf between those two TEs is vast.

Pick 7.7:  T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts.  He's on my target list in every league this season.  One of my favorite sleepers, I foresee big things for Hilton as Reggie Wayne continues to slip another step or two.

Pick 8.6: Mark Ingram, RB, Saints.  The pickins were slim indeed.

Pick 9.7: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers.  Wish I knew which back will take the lead this year in Carolina.  I guess if we knew, J-Stew would either go much higher, or much lower.

Pick 10.6: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans.  Another one of my sleeper picks, this rookie has huge upside working opposite AJ.  That said, I just missed out on Justin Blackmon, who I would have preferred here.  Hopkins may have slid another round.

Pick 11.7: Fred Jackson, RB, Bills.  Possibly the most valuable handcuff in the NFL, mostly because he has plenty of tread left on his tires.  He could probably start for half the teams in the league.  When you own Spiller, who admittedly has an injury history, F-Jax is absolutely mandatory.

Pick 12.6: Seahawks defense/special teams.  The 49ers went one pick before, but Seattle is my top DST.

Pick 13.7: Matt Schaub, QB, Texans.  Once again, he lasts way too long.  I'll take him here every time.

Pick 14.6: Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles.  You can guess the reaction this pick elicited.  And I probably pulled the trigger a couple of rounds early.  But all signs point to Cooper being the WR2 in Philly this year.  Given the other available options, I held my nose and took the racist jerk.

Pick 15.7: Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers.  He could be Pittsburgh's starting back at some point this season.  For what that's worth.

Pick 16.6: Matt Prater, K, Broncos.  I generally prefer to take my kicker in the penultimate round so I can get one of the 3-4 elite options I prefer.   Especially when there's no other player on the board that I give a damn about.

Pick 17.7: Brandon Lloyd, WR, FA.  He's become my go-to flier in the last round.  I figure Lloyd has gotta land somewhere soon; and when he does, he just might become a factor.

There you have it.  Love my QBs.  A little concerned about my RBs. WRs are solid, but probably won't carry my team.  Oh well.  It's always hard to love your team in a 12-man league.

Preseason Column #1: Old Faces in New Places

Have you been paying attention this offseason?  Quick, where will Rashard Mendenhall be running this year?  How about Shonn Greene?  Whose uniform will Greg Jennings be wearing?  Who’s the new starting tight end in Tennessee?  Who’s kicking in San Francisco?

Once again, the roster of fantasy-relevant players changing zip codes this season is extensive.  I counted more than 60, and that doesn’t include guys like Michael Turner, Beanie Wells and Brandon Lloyd, who are still looking for work.

And while this year’s merry-go-round spun no more quickly than in recent years, the ride always ends the same: with precious few players boosting their fantasy stock in new jerseys.

Last year, only Peyton Manning (coming off a season lost to injury) and Brandon Marshall measurably improved their fortunes with new teams.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Vincent Jackson got modest bumps, and Danario Alexander emerged in mid-season after the Chargers plucked him off the scrap heap.  But that’s it, sports fans.

Meanwhile, following the historic trend, the list of team-swapping duds was exhaustive.  Tim Tebow, Brandon Jacobs, Peyton Hillis and Laurent Robinson vanished from the fantasy landscape, and several other stars with great expectations mostly labored in vain.

So, as we survey the NFL’s continuously shifting landscape, we are justifiably pessimistic about most of the carpetbaggers’ prospects.  Here’s a quick look at the most significant offseason moves of 2013, broken down by the projected impact on each player’s fantasy value.

MOVIN’ ON UP – Look for improved production from these five.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Cardinals – There’s nowhere to go but up for Mendy after last year’s season of discontent.  But is he the solution to Arizona's perennial rushing woes?  Don’t bank on it.

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets – He’ll get his shot to start for a team in desperate need of a reliable bell cow.  The oft-injured former Saint has no competition to speak of, but will the Jets ever penetrate the red zone?

Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots – Wes Welker Lite may be Tom Brady’s only reliable receiver when the season begins.  Amendola will be featured on every (other) fantasy expert’s sleeper list; which means, by definition, he’s no sleeper.

Jared Cook, TE, Rams – The underachieving former Titan has developed an instant rapport with Sam Bradford in training camp.  He’s worth a late-round flier.

Phil Dawson, K, 49ers – The sure-footed former Brown will finally get a chance to mop up for a real offense.

COMIN’ BACK DOWN – These players will be hard-pressed to match last year’s results.

Reggie Bush, RB, Lions – He had a good run in Miami, but he’s joining a pass-first offense in Motown.  I just can’t see Bush cracking the Top 20 this season.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts – He’ll begin his tenure in Indy nursing yet another foot injury.  The old Bradshaw was more talented than Vick Ballard and Donald Brown put together, but injuries and shared carries may conspire against him. 

Shonn Greene, RB, Titans -- Instead of two-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust in the Jets offense, he'll now underachieve as Chris Johnson's backup.

Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings – He walked out of Green Bay and, pfffttttt....just like that...his elite status is history.

Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks – Hip surgery will cost him most, if not all, of his first season in Seattle. 

Brandon Myers, TE, Giants – He benefitted from the dearth of talent around him in Oakland; but he’ll be the third option, at best, in New York.

CALL IT A WASH – For better or worse, these players should post comparable results to last season.

Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals – Arizona’s offensive line is a sieve, and he’s years past his prime.  Even Larry Fitzgerald won’t be enough to salvage his fantasy value.

Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs – Little more than a fantasy backup as a 49er, Smith will be an afterthought in KC.

Matt Flynn, QB, Raiders – Even if he wins the starting job, Flynn won’t be roster-worthy in most leagues. 

Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons – Now on the wrong side of 30, the hard-charging workhorse will celebrate more wins in Atlanta; but his second-tier status will likely hold steady.  

Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers – Moves from one crowded backfield to another.

Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins – His production slipped last year in Pittsburgh, and Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to propel him back to elite status.

Wes Welker, WR, Broncos – If only he could find a decent quarterback to get him the ball, Welker might make a name for himself.

Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers – It’s been a while since Boldin has been an every-week fantasy starter; but he’ll still have his moments on the left coast.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears – He finally emerged in 2012 and Jay Cutler will welcome a reliable safety valve.

Dustin Keller, TE, Dolphins – Mostly a bye-week fantasy starter as a Jet, he’ll retain that status in Miami.

Delanie Walker, TE, Titans – Walker has upside now that he’s out of Vernon Davis' shadow; but his ceiling is low in Tennessee.

David Akers, K, Lions – Kicked to the curb after an erratic season in San Francisco, Akers will be roster-worthy again in Detroit.

Josh Brown, K, Giants – Should have more opportunities now that he’s in New York, but Brown is still far from elite.

Lawrence Tynes, K, Buccaneers – With Connor Barth (ACL) sidelined for the season, Tynes will remain a borderline fantasy starter.

OFF THE RADAR – These players are likely to be written about only in the past tense from now on.

QBs: Jason Campbell (Browns), Matt Cassel (Vikings), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Titans), Matt Hasselbeck (Colts), Kevin Kolb (Bills), Colt McCoy (49ers)

RBs: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), Mike Goodson (Jets), Peyton Hillis (Bucs), Felix Jones (Eagles), Willis McGahee (FA), Michael Turner (FA), Leon Washington (Patriots), Beanie Wells (FA)

WRs: Davone Bess (Browns), Austin Collie (49ers), Josh Cribbs (Raiders), Brandon Gibson (Dolphins), Devery Henderson (Redskins), Darrius Heyward-Bey (Colts), Domenik Hixon (Panthers), Brandon Lloyd (FA), Laurent Robinson (FA), Kevin Walter (Titans), Titus Young (FA)

TEs: Anthony Fasano (Chiefs), Kellen Winslow, Jr. (Jets)

Ks: Billy Cundiff (Jets), Shayne Graham (Browns)

Preseason Column Schedule

August 12: A look at the Rookie Class of 2013 and positional rankings posted

August 19: The Sleepers

August 26: The Perfect Draft

Sporting News Experts Mock Draft #2: Drafting from the 10 hole

This evening, my compatriots from Sporting News' Fantasy Source held our second mock draft of the 2013 preseason.  The first was documented in the SN annual Fantasy Guide (at your neighborhood newsstand now).  This one will be written about online in the next couple of days.

I drew the 10th overall pick in the 12-man draft.  Standard scoring, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DST starting lineup.  Here's what I did:

Pick 1.10: LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles.  Felt good about getting Shady this late.  Would have preferred CJ Spiller, who went at 1.09, but I'm OK with this.  For a fleeting moment, I thought Ray Rice might slide to me.  He went at 1.08.  FYI, A-Rod went on the next pick, the first QB selected.

Pick 2.3: Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  You know how I feel about having an elite QB at the top of my roster.  Brees is my fave.

Pick 3:10: Roddy White, WR, Falcons.  I feel good about Roddy as my WR1.  Several more dubious receiver picks left the board before him.  Not sure what to make of that.

Pick 4.3: Frank Gore, RB, 49ers.  It's hard to be competitive without a strong RB2.  Gore is a solid value here.

Pick 5.10: Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens.  He's The Man in Baltimore now. We'll see how that plays out.

Pick 6.3: Darren Sproles, RB, Saints.  The top 2 TEs were gone and I didn't like the selection at WR.  So I decided to shore up my RB corps.  Sproles obviously holds more value in PPR leagues, and it's hard to say for certain what the Saints' backfield is going to look like this season.

Pick 7.10:  Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers.  Was hoping either Witten or Gonzo would still be here; but alas, they disappeared a bit too soon.

Pick 8.3: Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys.  He still has some tread on the tires, right?  Should be a decent WR3.

Pick 9.10: Kenny Britt, WR, Titans.  What could go wrong?

Pick 10.3: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers.  A starting RB in Round 10?  I dunno.  Maybe...

Pick 11.10: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans.  Watch this rookie.  He's going to soar up draft boards over the next several weeks.

Pick 12.3: Seahawks D/ST.  Got my top-rated unit in the 12th round.  Not too shabby.  They were the 2nd DST off the board, after the Niners.

Pick 13.10: Matt Schaub, QB, Texans.  Not sure why he keeps dropping so far.  The guy throws for 4,000 yards every year...  Awesome backup QB, if you ask me.  (Did you ask me?)

Pick 14.3:  Robert Turbin, RB, Seahawks.  If Beast Mode goes down, he'll get a shot.  I waited half a round too long to take Fred Jackson.

Pick 15.10: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions.  Underachieving TE makes a decent backup.

Pick 16.3: Matt Prater, K, Broncos.  When you're at the end of the line, it's usually best to snag an elite kicker in the penultimate round before the run begins.  Chances are, the "flier" you're aiming for will still be there with the last pick and you're not left combing through the K dregs.  Prater is my top pick now that New England's offense is in a shambles.

Pick 17.10: Brandon Lloyd, WR, FA.  Hard to believe this guy was the #1 fantasy WR in the land three short years ago.  Wouldn't be surprised if he lands somewhere before the season begins.  Whether that will translate to a productive starting slot is another story.  Too bad the Pats

won't give him another chance.

There you have it.  Two more mocks coming up before we play for keeps!

It's good to be back, Dallas!

Nearly a decade ago, I sent an email to the sports editor of The Dallas Morning News recommending that they start covering the growing fantasy football phenomenon and offering my services as a freelance contributor.  He eventually gave me a call, said he liked the ideas I offered, asked for some sample columns...and the rest is history.

Since then, I've been blessed to win some awards and have expanded my footprint to some of the top newspapers across the nation, as well as Sporting News magazine.

Now, a couple years after budget cutbacks at the Morning News sent my column to the cutting-room floor, I'm proud to announce that I'll be returning online at Dallasnews.com this season.

It's good to be back where it all started, and in my hometown paper where I belong.

My weekly columns will begin once the NFL preseason officially kicks off.

Chief Fool featured in "Fantasy Football Index"

Can you feel it?  Can you smell it?  Can you taste it?

It's almost time again...  Time to emerge from hibernation, splash water on our faces and get back down to business.  Fantasy football season is almost here!

I know this because I just received my first 2013 Draft Guide in the mail.  And it just so happens I'm in it.  I was asked to join a group of 20 fellow "experts" for the 23rd annual Fantasy Football Index Experts Poll.

The intro article entitled "Unconventional picks win it all" discussed the tendency of many experts to play it safe when it comes to ranking players.  And, true to form, most of the picks you'll find from the others read like your standard ADP list. 

Last year, Scott Sachs of Perfect Season Fantasy Football, made so many unconventional picks that he won the 2012 Experts Poll.  Makes sense.  After all, if you pick with the crowd, you finish with the crowd.

So it should come as no shock to you to read this paragraph:

Newcomer Ladd Biro is No. 2 in [this year's] outlier count.  He's the highest or lowest on 30 different players.  "If you're not going to stick your neck out, what's the point of making projections?" Biro says.  "Otherwise, you're just following the pack."  Eight experts have fewer than 10 outlier picks. 

Among my "outlier" picks: Adrian Peterson at RB4, lower than anyone else, right behind C.J. Spiller.  Colin Kaepernick at QB15.  Dez Bryant at WR1. 

If you want to see the rest, you'll have to pick up the magazine on your newsstand (available as of yesterday) or by ordering online at www.fantasyindex.com. 

My thanks to Ian Allen for inviting me to participate this year.  Hopefully my picks -- made nearly two months ago now -- won't come back to haunt me.   (FYI, so far so good.  I boldly predicted that Aaron Hernandez would finish the season as the TE2.  I just knew he was gonna have a killer year.)

Sporting News Experts Mock Draft #1

Greetings, Fools!  Believe it or not, we held the mock draft for Sporting News' annual fantasy football draft guide on Monday night.  How crazy is that?  The 2013 NFL season must not be far off!

Of course, it's way too early to take any mock draft seriously; and my preparation was limited to printing off a set of third-party rankings and using those as a guide.  So I'm not exactly at the top of my game and you can bet that my opinions will evolve over the coming months.

For now, here's what I came out with in a 12-team standard re-draft league (starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF).  I had the 5th overall pick.

Round 1: Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  Yup, I took him over Rodgers. Did you realize Brees has been the top-ranked QB in fantasy football for two consecutive years?  As a Rodgers owner last year, the memory of his late-season slump (4 TD passes total between Weeks 11 and 14) is still fresh on my mind.  FYI, AP, Foster, Rice and Doug Martin went in the first four picks.  Had I opted against the QB pick, I would have taken Marshawn and been left with either Cam in the 2nd, Stafford or Ryan in the 3rd, or a slew of "maybes."  I'll take the franchise QB, please.

Round 2: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars.  I was disappointed that MJD was the best RB left on the board by the time my pick came up again.  As expected, the elite QBs were gone by now, so I feel vindicated in taking a passer with my first pick.  But I am not crazy about hitching my wagon to a diminutive rusher coming off a serious foot injury and playing for a team that rarely scores. My other choices were Matt Forte and Steven Jackson.  Maybe shoulda gone with Forte.

Round 3: Roddy White, WR, Falcons.  Amazingly, both Brandon Marshall and AJ nearly fell to me here.  Roddy may not be the strongest WR1 any longer, but he'll do in a pinch.

Round 4: Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants.  Great value in the 4th round, especially given the dearth of RBs still standing.

Round 5: Darren Sproles, RB, Saints.  As it turns out, only Reggie Bush and David Wilson were taken in between my 4th and 5th picks.  I was hoping Bush would slide, as I think he's in a great situation in Detroit.  Sproles was about the last of the solid fantasy backs left on the table.  (Vick Ballard was the next one taken, in the 6th round, if that tells you anything.)

Round 6: Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys.  Gronk and Graham gone in the 3rd.  Hernandez left with the first pick in the 6th.  I took Witten as the next-most reliable TE in the land, though I considered holding out for the ageless Gonzo.

Round 7: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers.  If J-Stew finally seizes the workhorse role and leaves DeAngelo in the dust, this will be a genius pick.  Yeah, that's probably not gonna happen.

Round 8: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts.  I haven't gone through all the analysis yet, but don't be surprised if Hilton is one of my sleeper picks this year.  He had a great rookie season and should continue to soar in his second year with Luck.

Round 9: Kenny Britt, WR, Titans.  Somebody had to do it.

Round 10: Fred Jackson, RB, Bills.  F-Jax showed he still has wheels and the ability to be a great fantasy contributor last season.  If/when Spiller goes down this year, Freddy will be a strong proxy.

Round 11: Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins.  Could find his groove as second-fiddle to Mike Wallace.


Round 12: Josh Freeman, QB, Bucs.  My draft hinges on Brees staying healthy and stellar.  I'd better not need Freeman more than once.

Round 13: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans.  Really excited about this pick.  By the time August rolls around, there's no way the first-round rookie will still be available this late.  Houston has been looking for a complementary receiver to pair with AJ for years.  Hopkins has a chance to be special.

Round 14: Broncos defense/special teams.  The 49ers went in the 10th, but the real run on defenses started in the 14th.  I was eyeing the Seahawks, but they were snagged right before my pick.  Denver has the players to vault into the elite ranks.

Round 15: Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos.  Not sure I believe he won't be a key cog in Denver's backfield.  Not sure I believe he will be, either.


Round 16: Stephen Gostkowski, K, Patriots.  This group knows better than to draft a kicker earlier than this round.  I was the first to jump and the rest followed quickly.

Round 17: Michael Turner, RB, F/A.  What the heck?  He could land in a very favorable spot by the time August rolls around.

So there you have it.  Admittedly, this isn't a roster I'd bank on.  But no worries; it's only a mock. There's plenty of time to get it right...