Preseason Column #1: Old Faces in New Places

Have you been paying attention this offseason?  Quick, where will Rashard Mendenhall be running this year?  How about Shonn Greene?  Whose uniform will Greg Jennings be wearing?  Who’s the new starting tight end in Tennessee?  Who’s kicking in San Francisco?

Once again, the roster of fantasy-relevant players changing zip codes this season is extensive.  I counted more than 60, and that doesn’t include guys like Michael Turner, Beanie Wells and Brandon Lloyd, who are still looking for work.

And while this year’s merry-go-round spun no more quickly than in recent years, the ride always ends the same: with precious few players boosting their fantasy stock in new jerseys.

Last year, only Peyton Manning (coming off a season lost to injury) and Brandon Marshall measurably improved their fortunes with new teams.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Vincent Jackson got modest bumps, and Danario Alexander emerged in mid-season after the Chargers plucked him off the scrap heap.  But that’s it, sports fans.

Meanwhile, following the historic trend, the list of team-swapping duds was exhaustive.  Tim Tebow, Brandon Jacobs, Peyton Hillis and Laurent Robinson vanished from the fantasy landscape, and several other stars with great expectations mostly labored in vain.

So, as we survey the NFL’s continuously shifting landscape, we are justifiably pessimistic about most of the carpetbaggers’ prospects.  Here’s a quick look at the most significant offseason moves of 2013, broken down by the projected impact on each player’s fantasy value.

MOVIN’ ON UP – Look for improved production from these five.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Cardinals – There’s nowhere to go but up for Mendy after last year’s season of discontent.  But is he the solution to Arizona's perennial rushing woes?  Don’t bank on it.

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets – He’ll get his shot to start for a team in desperate need of a reliable bell cow.  The oft-injured former Saint has no competition to speak of, but will the Jets ever penetrate the red zone?

Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots – Wes Welker Lite may be Tom Brady’s only reliable receiver when the season begins.  Amendola will be featured on every (other) fantasy expert’s sleeper list; which means, by definition, he’s no sleeper.

Jared Cook, TE, Rams – The underachieving former Titan has developed an instant rapport with Sam Bradford in training camp.  He’s worth a late-round flier.

Phil Dawson, K, 49ers – The sure-footed former Brown will finally get a chance to mop up for a real offense.

COMIN’ BACK DOWN – These players will be hard-pressed to match last year’s results.

Reggie Bush, RB, Lions – He had a good run in Miami, but he’s joining a pass-first offense in Motown.  I just can’t see Bush cracking the Top 20 this season.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts – He’ll begin his tenure in Indy nursing yet another foot injury.  The old Bradshaw was more talented than Vick Ballard and Donald Brown put together, but injuries and shared carries may conspire against him. 

Shonn Greene, RB, Titans -- Instead of two-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust in the Jets offense, he'll now underachieve as Chris Johnson's backup.

Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings – He walked out of Green Bay and, pfffttttt....just like that...his elite status is history.

Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks – Hip surgery will cost him most, if not all, of his first season in Seattle. 

Brandon Myers, TE, Giants – He benefitted from the dearth of talent around him in Oakland; but he’ll be the third option, at best, in New York.

CALL IT A WASH – For better or worse, these players should post comparable results to last season.

Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals – Arizona’s offensive line is a sieve, and he’s years past his prime.  Even Larry Fitzgerald won’t be enough to salvage his fantasy value.

Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs – Little more than a fantasy backup as a 49er, Smith will be an afterthought in KC.

Matt Flynn, QB, Raiders – Even if he wins the starting job, Flynn won’t be roster-worthy in most leagues. 

Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons – Now on the wrong side of 30, the hard-charging workhorse will celebrate more wins in Atlanta; but his second-tier status will likely hold steady.  

Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers – Moves from one crowded backfield to another.

Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins – His production slipped last year in Pittsburgh, and Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to propel him back to elite status.

Wes Welker, WR, Broncos – If only he could find a decent quarterback to get him the ball, Welker might make a name for himself.

Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers – It’s been a while since Boldin has been an every-week fantasy starter; but he’ll still have his moments on the left coast.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears – He finally emerged in 2012 and Jay Cutler will welcome a reliable safety valve.

Dustin Keller, TE, Dolphins – Mostly a bye-week fantasy starter as a Jet, he’ll retain that status in Miami.

Delanie Walker, TE, Titans – Walker has upside now that he’s out of Vernon Davis' shadow; but his ceiling is low in Tennessee.

David Akers, K, Lions – Kicked to the curb after an erratic season in San Francisco, Akers will be roster-worthy again in Detroit.

Josh Brown, K, Giants – Should have more opportunities now that he’s in New York, but Brown is still far from elite.

Lawrence Tynes, K, Buccaneers – With Connor Barth (ACL) sidelined for the season, Tynes will remain a borderline fantasy starter.

OFF THE RADAR – These players are likely to be written about only in the past tense from now on.

QBs: Jason Campbell (Browns), Matt Cassel (Vikings), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Titans), Matt Hasselbeck (Colts), Kevin Kolb (Bills), Colt McCoy (49ers)

RBs: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), Mike Goodson (Jets), Peyton Hillis (Bucs), Felix Jones (Eagles), Willis McGahee (FA), Michael Turner (FA), Leon Washington (Patriots), Beanie Wells (FA)

WRs: Davone Bess (Browns), Austin Collie (49ers), Josh Cribbs (Raiders), Brandon Gibson (Dolphins), Devery Henderson (Redskins), Darrius Heyward-Bey (Colts), Domenik Hixon (Panthers), Brandon Lloyd (FA), Laurent Robinson (FA), Kevin Walter (Titans), Titus Young (FA)

TEs: Anthony Fasano (Chiefs), Kellen Winslow, Jr. (Jets)

Ks: Billy Cundiff (Jets), Shayne Graham (Browns)

Preseason Column Schedule

August 12: A look at the Rookie Class of 2013 and positional rankings posted

August 19: The Sleepers

August 26: The Perfect Draft

Sporting News Experts Mock Draft #2: Drafting from the 10 hole

This evening, my compatriots from Sporting News' Fantasy Source held our second mock draft of the 2013 preseason.  The first was documented in the SN annual Fantasy Guide (at your neighborhood newsstand now).  This one will be written about online in the next couple of days.

I drew the 10th overall pick in the 12-man draft.  Standard scoring, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DST starting lineup.  Here's what I did:

Pick 1.10: LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles.  Felt good about getting Shady this late.  Would have preferred CJ Spiller, who went at 1.09, but I'm OK with this.  For a fleeting moment, I thought Ray Rice might slide to me.  He went at 1.08.  FYI, A-Rod went on the next pick, the first QB selected.

Pick 2.3: Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  You know how I feel about having an elite QB at the top of my roster.  Brees is my fave.

Pick 3:10: Roddy White, WR, Falcons.  I feel good about Roddy as my WR1.  Several more dubious receiver picks left the board before him.  Not sure what to make of that.

Pick 4.3: Frank Gore, RB, 49ers.  It's hard to be competitive without a strong RB2.  Gore is a solid value here.

Pick 5.10: Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens.  He's The Man in Baltimore now. We'll see how that plays out.

Pick 6.3: Darren Sproles, RB, Saints.  The top 2 TEs were gone and I didn't like the selection at WR.  So I decided to shore up my RB corps.  Sproles obviously holds more value in PPR leagues, and it's hard to say for certain what the Saints' backfield is going to look like this season.

Pick 7.10:  Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers.  Was hoping either Witten or Gonzo would still be here; but alas, they disappeared a bit too soon.

Pick 8.3: Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys.  He still has some tread on the tires, right?  Should be a decent WR3.

Pick 9.10: Kenny Britt, WR, Titans.  What could go wrong?

Pick 10.3: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers.  A starting RB in Round 10?  I dunno.  Maybe...

Pick 11.10: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans.  Watch this rookie.  He's going to soar up draft boards over the next several weeks.

Pick 12.3: Seahawks D/ST.  Got my top-rated unit in the 12th round.  Not too shabby.  They were the 2nd DST off the board, after the Niners.

Pick 13.10: Matt Schaub, QB, Texans.  Not sure why he keeps dropping so far.  The guy throws for 4,000 yards every year...  Awesome backup QB, if you ask me.  (Did you ask me?)

Pick 14.3:  Robert Turbin, RB, Seahawks.  If Beast Mode goes down, he'll get a shot.  I waited half a round too long to take Fred Jackson.

Pick 15.10: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions.  Underachieving TE makes a decent backup.

Pick 16.3: Matt Prater, K, Broncos.  When you're at the end of the line, it's usually best to snag an elite kicker in the penultimate round before the run begins.  Chances are, the "flier" you're aiming for will still be there with the last pick and you're not left combing through the K dregs.  Prater is my top pick now that New England's offense is in a shambles.

Pick 17.10: Brandon Lloyd, WR, FA.  Hard to believe this guy was the #1 fantasy WR in the land three short years ago.  Wouldn't be surprised if he lands somewhere before the season begins.  Whether that will translate to a productive starting slot is another story.  Too bad the Pats

won't give him another chance.

There you have it.  Two more mocks coming up before we play for keeps!

It's good to be back, Dallas!

Nearly a decade ago, I sent an email to the sports editor of The Dallas Morning News recommending that they start covering the growing fantasy football phenomenon and offering my services as a freelance contributor.  He eventually gave me a call, said he liked the ideas I offered, asked for some sample columns...and the rest is history.

Since then, I've been blessed to win some awards and have expanded my footprint to some of the top newspapers across the nation, as well as Sporting News magazine.

Now, a couple years after budget cutbacks at the Morning News sent my column to the cutting-room floor, I'm proud to announce that I'll be returning online at Dallasnews.com this season.

It's good to be back where it all started, and in my hometown paper where I belong.

My weekly columns will begin once the NFL preseason officially kicks off.

Chief Fool featured in "Fantasy Football Index"

Can you feel it?  Can you smell it?  Can you taste it?

It's almost time again...  Time to emerge from hibernation, splash water on our faces and get back down to business.  Fantasy football season is almost here!

I know this because I just received my first 2013 Draft Guide in the mail.  And it just so happens I'm in it.  I was asked to join a group of 20 fellow "experts" for the 23rd annual Fantasy Football Index Experts Poll.

The intro article entitled "Unconventional picks win it all" discussed the tendency of many experts to play it safe when it comes to ranking players.  And, true to form, most of the picks you'll find from the others read like your standard ADP list. 

Last year, Scott Sachs of Perfect Season Fantasy Football, made so many unconventional picks that he won the 2012 Experts Poll.  Makes sense.  After all, if you pick with the crowd, you finish with the crowd.

So it should come as no shock to you to read this paragraph:

Newcomer Ladd Biro is No. 2 in [this year's] outlier count.  He's the highest or lowest on 30 different players.  "If you're not going to stick your neck out, what's the point of making projections?" Biro says.  "Otherwise, you're just following the pack."  Eight experts have fewer than 10 outlier picks. 

Among my "outlier" picks: Adrian Peterson at RB4, lower than anyone else, right behind C.J. Spiller.  Colin Kaepernick at QB15.  Dez Bryant at WR1. 

If you want to see the rest, you'll have to pick up the magazine on your newsstand (available as of yesterday) or by ordering online at www.fantasyindex.com. 

My thanks to Ian Allen for inviting me to participate this year.  Hopefully my picks -- made nearly two months ago now -- won't come back to haunt me.   (FYI, so far so good.  I boldly predicted that Aaron Hernandez would finish the season as the TE2.  I just knew he was gonna have a killer year.)

Sporting News Experts Mock Draft #1

Greetings, Fools!  Believe it or not, we held the mock draft for Sporting News' annual fantasy football draft guide on Monday night.  How crazy is that?  The 2013 NFL season must not be far off!

Of course, it's way too early to take any mock draft seriously; and my preparation was limited to printing off a set of third-party rankings and using those as a guide.  So I'm not exactly at the top of my game and you can bet that my opinions will evolve over the coming months.

For now, here's what I came out with in a 12-team standard re-draft league (starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF).  I had the 5th overall pick.

Round 1: Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  Yup, I took him over Rodgers. Did you realize Brees has been the top-ranked QB in fantasy football for two consecutive years?  As a Rodgers owner last year, the memory of his late-season slump (4 TD passes total between Weeks 11 and 14) is still fresh on my mind.  FYI, AP, Foster, Rice and Doug Martin went in the first four picks.  Had I opted against the QB pick, I would have taken Marshawn and been left with either Cam in the 2nd, Stafford or Ryan in the 3rd, or a slew of "maybes."  I'll take the franchise QB, please.

Round 2: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars.  I was disappointed that MJD was the best RB left on the board by the time my pick came up again.  As expected, the elite QBs were gone by now, so I feel vindicated in taking a passer with my first pick.  But I am not crazy about hitching my wagon to a diminutive rusher coming off a serious foot injury and playing for a team that rarely scores. My other choices were Matt Forte and Steven Jackson.  Maybe shoulda gone with Forte.

Round 3: Roddy White, WR, Falcons.  Amazingly, both Brandon Marshall and AJ nearly fell to me here.  Roddy may not be the strongest WR1 any longer, but he'll do in a pinch.

Round 4: Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants.  Great value in the 4th round, especially given the dearth of RBs still standing.

Round 5: Darren Sproles, RB, Saints.  As it turns out, only Reggie Bush and David Wilson were taken in between my 4th and 5th picks.  I was hoping Bush would slide, as I think he's in a great situation in Detroit.  Sproles was about the last of the solid fantasy backs left on the table.  (Vick Ballard was the next one taken, in the 6th round, if that tells you anything.)

Round 6: Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys.  Gronk and Graham gone in the 3rd.  Hernandez left with the first pick in the 6th.  I took Witten as the next-most reliable TE in the land, though I considered holding out for the ageless Gonzo.

Round 7: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers.  If J-Stew finally seizes the workhorse role and leaves DeAngelo in the dust, this will be a genius pick.  Yeah, that's probably not gonna happen.

Round 8: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts.  I haven't gone through all the analysis yet, but don't be surprised if Hilton is one of my sleeper picks this year.  He had a great rookie season and should continue to soar in his second year with Luck.

Round 9: Kenny Britt, WR, Titans.  Somebody had to do it.

Round 10: Fred Jackson, RB, Bills.  F-Jax showed he still has wheels and the ability to be a great fantasy contributor last season.  If/when Spiller goes down this year, Freddy will be a strong proxy.

Round 11: Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins.  Could find his groove as second-fiddle to Mike Wallace.


Round 12: Josh Freeman, QB, Bucs.  My draft hinges on Brees staying healthy and stellar.  I'd better not need Freeman more than once.

Round 13: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans.  Really excited about this pick.  By the time August rolls around, there's no way the first-round rookie will still be available this late.  Houston has been looking for a complementary receiver to pair with AJ for years.  Hopkins has a chance to be special.

Round 14: Broncos defense/special teams.  The 49ers went in the 10th, but the real run on defenses started in the 14th.  I was eyeing the Seahawks, but they were snagged right before my pick.  Denver has the players to vault into the elite ranks.

Round 15: Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos.  Not sure I believe he won't be a key cog in Denver's backfield.  Not sure I believe he will be, either.


Round 16: Stephen Gostkowski, K, Patriots.  This group knows better than to draft a kicker earlier than this round.  I was the first to jump and the rest followed quickly.

Round 17: Michael Turner, RB, F/A.  What the heck?  He could land in a very favorable spot by the time August rolls around.

So there you have it.  Admittedly, this isn't a roster I'd bank on.  But no worries; it's only a mock. There's plenty of time to get it right...

Offseason moves of note

Greetings, Fools.  During the long offseason without fantasy football, there's not much news to report until we get to NFL Draft time.  So, in an effort to keep track of the ever-shifting landscape of NFL rosters, we'll keep a running tally of all the free agent moves, trades and cuts that could have an impact on the 2013 fantasy football season.

We won't cover players that re-sign with their current clubs, though.  Just the moves that involve players being released from, or swapping, teams.

As of August 3, here are the moves that matter:

QBs
Carson Palmer, Cardinals -- Traded from the Raiders to take over one of the worst passing attacks in the league.
Matt Flynn, Raiders -- Will attempt to replace Palmer after losing out to Russell Wilson in Seattle.
Alex Smith, Chiefs -- 49ers fans won't have him to kick around anymore.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Titans -- Released by the Bills, who'll now look to the draft for a savior.  Later agrees to serve as Jake Locker's backup on the Titans, who cut Matt Hasselbeck.
Matt Cassel, Vikings -- Flees Kansas City to compete with, or backup, Christian Ponder.
David Garrard, Jets -- Signed to light a fire under Sanchez.  Yeah, that should work perfectly.  Actually, as of May 16, it looks like Garrard is heading into retirement.
Kevin Kolb, Bills -- Cut loose by the Cardinals.  Kolb was a luxury for a team stacked with the elite QB lineup of John Skelton, Brian Hoyer, Rian Lindley and Drew Stanton.  Now he'll lead Buffalo to the Promised Land.  Uh huh...
Matt Hasselbeck, Colts -- Set free by Tennessee to latch on with division-rivals in Indy.
Jason Campbell, Browns -- Will compete for the starting job with Weeden.
Colt McCoy, 49ers -- Browns reject will backup Kaepernick.
John Skelton, Bengals -- With Palmer in place, Skelton goes house-shopping.  Finds a place in Cinci.  Do you care?  I didn't think so.
Brady Quinn, Seahawks -- Former Brown and Chief preparing to be a former Seahawk.
Trent Edwards -- Former backup sent packing by the Eagles.
Tim Tebow, Patriots -- Released by the Jets following the draft. Signed by New England.  Could spell the end of the Brady Era...

RBs
Reggie Bush, Lions -- Trades South Beach for Motown.
Steven Jackson, Falcons -- As expected, the Rams' workhorse was lured away by the contending Falcons to replace...
Michael Turner -- No longer much of a burner, released by the Falcons in a salary cap move.
Shonn Greene, Titans -- Now, instead of two-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust in the Jets offense, he'll underachieve in Chris Johnson's shadow.
Willis McGahee -- Released from the crowded Broncos backfield.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts -- Cut by the G-men, also due to salary considerations.  Eventually lands in Indy, which could surely use him.
Beanie Wells -- Cards decide to cut Beanie loose, rather than waiting until Week 2 or 3 to place him on IR.
Rashard Mendenhall, Cardinals -- The solution to Arizona's perennial rushing woes?  I think not...
Leon Washington, Patriots -- Add the former Seahawk to the long list of role players in the New England backfield.
Danny Woodhead, Chargers -- Didn't take long for the shifty back to read the writing on the wall in New England.
Peyton Hillis, Bucs -- Former Brown, Chief and Madden cover boy joins a crowded Tampa Bay backfield.
Mike Goodson, Jets -- Former Raider could finally get his shot at significant carries, since the Jets are thin at the position.
Justin Forsett, Jaguars -- Arian's backup in Houston will now backup MJD.
Rashad Jennings, Raiders -- Former Jag didn't hack it when MJD went down; will he be there for Run DMC?
Chris Ivory, Jets -- Will get his shot to start for a team in desperate need of a reliable bell cow.
LeGarrette Blount, Patriots -- Former Buc will compete for playing time in New England's crowded backfield.
Felix Jones, Eagles -- My (soon-to-be-former) neighbor leaves his backup role in Dallas for a similar position in Philly.

WRs
Mike Wallace, Dolphins -- Miami lands the big fish from Pittsburgh.
Wes Welker, Broncos -- Poor guy.  Now he has to fetch passes from Peyton Manning.  Will he ever catch a break?
Danny Amendola, Patriots -- Welker-lite reports for duty to New England.  Whaddya wanna bet that every (other) fantasy "guru" lists Amendola as a sleeper next year?  Sorry guys...when everybody knows it, you're not a sleeper...
Percy Harvin, Seahawks -- Traded by Vikes for a 1st-rounder.  Let the migraines begin in San Fran...
Anquan Boldin, 49ers -- Traded by Ravens for a 6th-rounder after sides couldn't agree on -- guess what? -- money.
Brandon Lloyd -- One-year wonder set loose by the Patriots.
Michael Jenkins, Patriots -- Now that he'll be shagging passes from Brady, Jenkins is sure to...disappear again. 

Greg Jennings, Vikings -- Leaves the Pack and, pfffttttt....just like that...his elite status is history.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Colts -- Former 1st-round pick let his opportunity with the Raiders slip through his fingers.  Latches on with Indy.
Laurent Robinson -- Released by Jags one year after they paid him the big bucks.  Will Dallas come a-callin'?
Devery Henderson, Redskins -- One of Fantasyland's most frustrating, inconsistent, unreliable receivers moved north to Washington. Don't count on RG3 doing what Brees couldn't.
Titus Young -- Troubled but talented speedster signed by Rams after being released by the Lions.  Alas, his stay in St. Louis was short-lived.
Kevin Walter -- Cut by the Texans.  Admit it, you thought they did that a year ago...
Donny Avery, Chiefs -- Leaves Indy for KC.  Can he stay healthy?
Kevin Ogletree, Bucs -- Yawn.
Brandon Gibson, Dolphins -- Former Ram joins Miami's near-complete offensive makeover.
Arrelious Benn, Eagles -- Bucs' former 1st-round pick heads to the City of Brotherly Shove.
Louis Murphy, Giants -- He barely made a ripple in Carolina; so how's he going to make waves in New York?
Domenik Hixon, Panthers -- Former Giant will try to stay healthy in Carolina.
Davone Bess, Browns -- Acquired from Miami.
Josh Cribbs, Raiders -- No, he's not more attractive in Oakland than he was in Cleveland.
Austin Collie, 49ers -- If he can just stay healthy (big if), he could work his way into the #2 WR role in San Fran.
Early Doucet, Seahawks -- Late signee with Seattle.
"The Other" Steve Smith -- Former Giant, Eagle, Ram and, most recently, Buc retires, eliminating the need for us to distinguish him from "The Real" Steve Smith in Carolina.

TEs
Martellus Bennett, Bears -- Lands nice free-agent gig in Chicago after emerging in NY.
Jared Cook, Rams -- Former Titan will try to fulfill his potential in St. Louis.
Delanie Walker, Titans -- Leaves Vernon Davis' shadow to disappear in the Titans' offense.
Anthony Fasano, Chiefs -- Former Dolphin will catch passes from Alex Smith.
Dustin Keller, Dolphins -- Former Jet moves to hated division rivals, providing a solid upgrade for Miami over Fasano.
Brandon Myers, Giants -- Ex-Raider moves cross-country.
Tom Crabtree, Bucs -- Now out of Jermichael Finley's shadow, could be a sleeper with little competition in Tampa Bay.
Kellen Winslow, Jr., Jets -- Former Buc will have a good chance to start in New York.  But that doesn't exactly sound tantalizing, does it?

Ks
Jason Hanson -- One of the best hung up his cleats.
David Akers, Lions -- After erratic season, kicked to the curb by the 49ers.  Picked up by Detroit after Hanson retired.
Josh Brown, Giants -- Attention, Lawrence Tynes.  Time to find a realtor.
Phil Dawson, 49ers -- Cleveland's most tenured player decides it's time to start winning.
Shayne Graham, Browns -- Well-traveled kicker will take a shot at filling Dawson's shoes.
Nate Kaeding -- Retired after suffering groin injury in camp.
Billy Cundiff, Jets -- Signed in late July to compete wiht Nick Folk.

2012 Perfect Draft: The Final Solution

Hindsight may be 20/20.  But hindsight armed with statistics can be brutal.

What seems so obvious now – of course Alfred Morris was poised for a breakout year; didn’t you see him in the preseason? – wasn’t quite so crystal clear to most of us just five short months ago.

It’s all part of our elusive quest for the perfect draft, the Holy Grail of fantasy football.  One of these days, I’m going to achieve it.  Probably right after I cure cancer, win the lottery and break up with the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders.

Until then, I’ll keep torturing myself – and you – by exploring what could have been had we made all the right decisions during our preseason draft.  Yes, dear reader, it’s time for my oft-imitated, always-controversial, yet magically delicious 2012 Perfect Draft: The Final Solution.

As always, we start with a few key assumptions.  First, we’re in a 10-team non-keeper league using a standard scoring system that starts one QB, two RBs, three WRs, and one TE, K and team defense.  Second, we are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a snake format, meaning we won’t have a shot at Arian Foster.  Third, since all drafts play out differently, we’ll need a little luck along the way.  Finally, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2012 Fantasy Draft, we should have selected…

Round 1.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady would do just fine, but Brees gets the nod for his stellar consistency and superior performance during the fantasy postseason.

Round 2.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings.  Fantasyland’s MVP fell to the third round in many drafts, but let’s not tempt fate.

Round 3.  Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears.  A.J. Green got off to a faster start, but Marshall was more consistent throughout the season and finished stronger.  He had only two games with fewer than 90 yards or a touchdown and reached the end zone in nine different weeks.

Round 4.  Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys.  Once he caught fire in Week 10, Bryant was arguably the most valuable player on any fantasy roster.  He’ll propel us to a title down the stretch.  

Round 5.  Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers.  He’ll win Week 9 for us all by himself.  We now own the No. 1 QB and two of the top three RBs and WRs in the business.

Round 6.  Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos.  The best part about drafting the Comeback Player of the Year is that we’ll get to complain to our league-mates about how much trouble we have choosing between our two awesome QBs each week.

Round 7.  Eric Decker, WR, Broncos.  We’d love to deploy both of Manning’s starting wideouts, but Decker can be secured a round or two later than Demaryius Thomas and he’ll deliver nearly as much firepower.

Round 8.  Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots.  Easy to overlook in New England’s pass-happy offense, Ridley rode his quiet consistency to a Top 10 ranking.

Round 9.  Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons.  The future Hall of Famer is still an elite fantasy performer, yet he was typically the 10^th tight end selected in the draft.

Round 10. Bears defense/special teams.  For most of the season, no other unit even came close.  Chicago led the league in turnovers and defensive scoring, and gave up the third-fewest points.

Round 11.  Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers.  We’ll probably never start him, but it was nice to see Crabtree finally emerge as a viable fantasy performer. 

Round 12.  Randall Cobb, WR, Packers.  Late-round sleepers are meant to be stashed away for a few weeks, in hopes that they’ll begin contributing by mid-year.  Cobb started paying dividends in Week 5.

Round 13. James Jones, WR, Packers.  What the heck?  He mixed in some stinkers, but no receiver visited the end zone more than Jones.

Round 14.  Seahawks defense/special teams.  We don’t normally advocate drafting two defenses, but why should we allow a competitor to benefit from Seattle’s elite unit?  We’ll even favor them down the stretch over the Bears.

Round 15.  Heath Miller, TE, Steelers.  Miller had a career year, finishing among the Top 5 tight ends, and he wasn’t even drafted in most leagues.

Round 16.  Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins.  Our backfield now includes two rookies and a guy coming off major reconstructive knee surgery.  Perfect.

Round 17.  Blair Walsh, K, Vikings.  As usual, several of the best kickers are available in the final round, including the rookie that outshined them all.

There you have it.  Just like we drew it up, right?

So, Fools, this is my last regular column of the season.  But don't fret.  The 2013 fantasy season will be here before we know it.  Be sure to follow me on Twitter so you'll know when I've posted news you can use here on the Fantasy Fools blog.  We’ll be back to chase the perfect draft again in just a few months.

Thanks for tuning in!