Week 1: Injured stars return with a flourish

The biggest questions looming over opening weekend centered primarily on the return of several high-profile NFL stars. 

Peyton Manning took everything the vaunted Steelers defense had to throw at him and emerged unscathed and triumphant.  He didn’t attempt any deep throws, but who needs to when Demaryius Thomas can take a short pass at the line of scrimmage and race 71 yards to paydirt?  Manning was again the master of the no-huddle offense, and it appears he’s going to make Thomas, Eric Decker and Jacob Tamme forces to be reckoned with.

Adrian Peterson is a freak.  We always knew it; we just weren’t sure we could still believe it.  There’s always a chance Peterson will have a setback in his amazing return from reconstructive knee surgery performed last Christmas Eve.  But for now, the fantasy stud is back indeed.

Same goes for Jamaal Charles, who looked as fast as ever.  And while Charles wasn’t used as a receiver or red-zone back against the Falcons, Peyton Hillis doesn’t look like much of a threat, either.  It’s a long season, and one game does not a trend make; but so far, so good for Charles less than a year after his major knee surgery.

Fred Jackson’s return was short-lived.  Once again, C.J. Spiller proved that he is more than up to the challenge of carrying the Bills’ backfield.  And it looks like he’ll be the man for a while, if the initial diagnosis of a sprained lateral collateral ligament is verified for Jackson.  It shouldn’t end the veteran’s season, but it clearly puts Spiller in the driver’s seat for an extended period of time.

Arizona’s rushing attack is still so pathetic, it’s hard to say whether Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams are fully healthy.  For now, the answer is irrelevant.  Neither look like they could start for the University of Phoenix, much less be in your starting lineup.

Meanwhile, on the non-injury front, if you drafted Robert Griffin III as your backup, it’s time to consider giving him a promotion.  Not only did the rookie from the Heisman Trophy factory that is Baylor University (Sic ‘em Bears!) pass for 320 yards and two touchdowns, but he added 42 yards on the ground and never turned the ball over.  And Griffin did what all great quarterbacks do: He raised the game of everyone around him.  It’s just one week, but RGIII’s arrow couldn’t be pointing much higher, especially with the news that Pierre Garcon’s foot injury is not of the serious variety.

Maurice Jones-Drew is going to be just fine, thank you.  The plan was to ease MJD back into game action after he skipped the entire preseason in a contract dispute.  But then Rashad Jennings went out with a knee injury, and the 2011 NFL rushing leader was pressed into his normal workload.  Jones-Drew showed his normal burst and bulldozing style in Minnesota, and should be safely ensconced in his featured back role next weekend.

Arian Foster and Julio Jones are the early frontrunners in the Fantasy MVP chase.  Randy Moss isn’t done yet.  The 49ers’ run defense is still impenetrable.  (Keep that in mind next weekend, jubilant Kevin Smith owners.)  And Stevan Ridley could be a bigger factor in the Patriots’ offense than we expected.

Which brings us to Chris Johnson.  Who would’ve believed he could possibly get off to a worse start in 2012 than he did in 2011?  After Johnson managed just four yards on 11 rushes, it’s time to toss out his CJ2K nickname.  The once-elite tailback may have trouble earning the CJ1K moniker now.

And for the record…the next time anyone (including this writer) tries to tell you that DeAngelo Williams is a great start, point back to Sunday’s performance at Tampa Bay.  Then seek your fantasy advice from someone who doesn’t believe in unicorns, the Tooth Fairy and the Dolphins’ Super Bowl aspirations.

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins.  It goes against my every instinct to recommend one of Mike Shanahan’s tailbacks, but the rookie just backed up his impressive preseason with a 96-yard, two-TD debut on a whopping 28 carries.  Even more telling, Roy Helu and Evan Royster were bit players in the opener.  Morris’ lead role could change in an instant; but until then, he’s the bomb.

Stephen Hill, WR, Jets.  Sure, his stellar debut came against Buffalo’s porous secondary, and Mark Sanchez can’t play much better than he just did.  But the rookie’s 89-yard, two-touchdown performance shouldn’t be ignored. His teammate Jeremy Kerley, who also scored twice on Sunday, is much less likely to replicate his performance any time soon, and does not merit a roster spot.

Kevin Ogletree, WR, Cowboys.  One-week wonder?  That’s what they said about Miles Austin in 2009 and Laurent Robinson last season.  Ogletree exploited a depleted Giants secondary, but he gained Romo’s trust along the way.  Don’t ignore his breakout performance.

Don’t be fooled

Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets.  He’s had games like this before.  In fact, Sanchez tossed four TDs against the Bills in Week 12 of last season.  It’s not that it never happens; it’s that it happens so rarely.  Don’t take the bait.

James Jones, WR, Packers.  Let your competitors jump on Jones, who turned four receptions into 81 yards and a TD.  Now in his sixth season, we’ve seen these flashes before.  Randall Cobb, on the other hand, caught nine passes and scored on a dazzling punt return.  One of my preseason sleeper picks, Cobb has upside that Jones can only dream about.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Giants.  Maybe all he needed was a little attention from his quarterback. After all, Romo only had eyes for Jason Witten in Dallas.  Yeah, maybe; but I’m not buying it.  Marty B had plenty of chances to produce over his first three seasons as a Cowboy, and failed miserably.  I don’t foresee Manning making a fantasy force out of him.

Sunday is here!

The NFL season kicked off on Wednesday, but it didn't feel real till now.  Welcome back, Fools!  It's a beautiful day (regardless of the weather where you are -- though it's awesome in Dallas, fo sho!). 

Let's get you ready for a winning day of fantasy fooball:

Ryan Mathews is OUT.  (Get used to it, Mathews owners...)  That means Ronnie Brown will get the first call out of the San Diego backfield; but he's expected to share carries with Jackie Battle and/or Curtis Brinkley.  I don't like any of their chances, and wouldn't start Brown unless I was very desperate.

Adrian Peterson is going to be active today and is expected to get a modest workload (10 - 15 carries) against the Jags.  That's not an insignificant number; so while he's certainly not a great option, he's not a sure-fire bench-sitter either.  It all depends on your other options; but there are worse flex plays than AP today.

Don't worry (much) about Arian Foster.  He says he's going to play today, and we believe him.  Ben Tate may get more carries than normal, but not enough to make Foster anything but a sure-fire start against the woeful Dolphins.

Marshawn Lynch (back spasms) will be a game-time decision.  If he starts, you have to play him.  If not, Robert Turbin is a good proxy, especially against the Cards.

MJD is expected to play on third downs and maybe be featured in a series or two. Depending on your other options, Jones-Drew could be a decent flex play.   But Rashad Jennings will be the main man against the Vikes.

There's a lot of speculation about who will be the Redskins' starting RB; but you shouldn't be concerned.  As warned all summer, this has the makings of a classic Shanahanigans quagmire.  Helu, Royster and now even Alfred Morris all have a legit shot at starting.  But who cares about starting?  I care who's going to get the bulk of the carries; including those at the goal line.  And there's simply no way to know until the game is on.  Stay away.  Stay far away...

OK, I'm off to early church now.  Back in time to report on the game-day inactives (via Twitter: www.twitter.com/ladd_biro) and other late-breaking news.

Have an awesome day, Fools!

Week 1 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Aaron Rodgers and Rob Gronkowski, or to bench Ryan Tannehill and Kenny Britt? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 1 of the 2012 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons at Chiefs.  He and his elite receivers have been locked-in all preseason.  Kansas City may be playing without its best corner, Brandon Flowers (foot); but regardless, the Chiefs defense will be no match for this explosive air attack.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers at Buccaneers. Normally, I avoid this backfield like the plague.  But Jonathan Stewart (ankle) could very well be out, leaving Cam Newton as Williams’ primary competition for carries and rushing scores.  Tampa Bay’s putrid run defense makes the decision easier.

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions vs. Rams. His preseason ankle injury appears to have subsided, though it’s only a matter of time before Smith’s next nagging injury.  Better start him now while Mikel Leshoure is serving the front end of his two-game suspension and Jahvid Best (concussion) is on the PUP list.  The Rams’ porous run defense makes Smith a delicious flex play.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers at Broncos.  Uncertainty in the backfield and Mike Wallace’s extended holdout should conspire to make Brown the busiest man on the field Sunday night.  Already a favorite of Big Ben’s, Brown will stake his claim to the lead receiver role in Pittsburgh.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts at Bears.  Chicago’s pass defense was their Achilles’ heel in 2011, and the Colts’ rushing “attack” won’t pose much of a threat to the Bears’ front four.  Andrew Luck and Company will likely be playing from behind in this game, making Wayne a good prospect for trash-time production, at worst. 

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler; RBs Michael Turner, Stevan Ridley, Doug Martin, Rashad Jennings; WRs Torrey Smith, Brandon Lloyd, Lance Moore, Pierre Garcon, Malcom Floyd, Nate Washington.

Roll ‘em back

Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos vs. Steelers.  He’ll probably make me look like an idiot for doubting him, but I would be very reluctant to start Manning in his first “real” game action against the mighty Pittsburgh defense.  There are lingering concerns about the nerves in his right (throwing) arm, and he’s yet to show he can consistently fling the ball deep.  The Steelers know this, and they will be relentless in their pursuit of the immobile passer all Sunday night.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals at Ravens.  I have high expectations for the Law Firm in Cincinnati, but the matchup in Baltimore worries me.  Green-Ellis should get the bulk of the carries, and Terrell Suggs’ absence from the Ravens’ front four will help.  But the Bengals’ best chance for success will rest in the passing game.

Cedric Benson, RB, Packers vs. 49ers.  One of the safest start/bench calls last season was whichever RB was playing the Niners.  There’s little reason to think that will change now, especially when Benson is starting his first game in Green Bay’s pass-first offense. I like the veteran’s potential this year; just not out of the gate.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens vs. Bengals.  The torch is being passed in Baltimore from the veteran Boldin to the upstart Torrey Smith.  Against the solid Cincinnati secondary, Boldin is unlikely to see much daylight.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers vs. Panthers.  Josh Freeman struggled throughout the preseason, not to mention most of 2011, and the Bucs’ new offensive scheme is centered on the running game.  Jackson has looked good in camp, but the jury is still out on the chemistry with his QB.  He’s a risky start in their regular season debut.

More thumbs down: QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, Robert Griffin III; RBs Adrian Peterson, Donald Brown, Willie McGahee, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Mathews, Ronnie Brown, Beanie Wells, Montario Hardesty, Evan Royster, Rashard Mendenhall, Trent Richardson, Jonathan Stewart, LeGarrette Blount, Peyton Hillis; WRs Santonio Holmes, Sidney Rice, Greg Little, Denarius Moore, Kendall Wright.

TAKING A FLIER

Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers at Broncos.  The Steelers tailback has had an impressive preseason, and could even draw the Week 1 start, thanks to a slew of nagging injuries to presumptive starter Isaac Redman.  Rashard Mendenhall (knee) is highly unlikely to suit up, leaving Dwyer in a great position to soar against Denver’s mediocre run defense.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…fails to follow the late-breaking news, including game-day inactives, prior to Sunday’s games.  With several top fantasy studs likely to be game-time decisions, ignoring last-minute updates can leave you with a big fat zero in your starting lineup.  I’ll be tweeting all day Sunday (www.twitter.com/ladd_biro), making sure you don’t miss a beat.

Fantasy season kicks off with a shocker

Excerpts from my Sporting News Fantasy Source column today:

Leave it to the fantasy gods to throw us a wicked curve ball on opening night.

On a field riddled with prolific receivers, who could have foreseen the emergence of Kevin “Freaking” Ogletree?  I’m guessing I’m not the only frustrated fantasy player to give the unheralded wideout that nickname, or worse, as we watched him reel in a career-best (by a long shot) eight receptions for 114 yards and 2 TDs. 

Why would anyone think the fourth-year receiver could perform at such a high level?  The Cowboys certainly didn’t, since they only reluctantly – and certainly not permanently – designated Ogletree their No. 3 wideout heading into Week 1. 

In hindsight, perhaps we shouldn’t be completely surprised.  Tony Romo has a habit of turning over-looked wideouts into overnight sensations. 

Miles Austin labored in obscurity for three years before exploding on the scene against the Chiefs in Week 5 of the 2009 season.  Laurent Robinson was a virtual bust after his first four seasons in Atlanta and St. Louis.  Picked up by Dallas after the 2011 season had begun, he developed an uncanny rapport with Romo and finished the year with 11 touchdowns and a soaring free agent market value that eventually landed him in Jacksonville.

That’s why I won’t be writing off Ogletree’s performance against the banged-up Giants secondary as an aberration.  It may, in fact, prove to be his one shining moment; but history proves he could be another diamond in the rough that helps lead fantasy teams to postseason success.

THE WALKING WOUNDED

My Twitter followers have been pelting me for days with questions about Marshawn Lynch’s Week 1status.  The good news is that he’s not expected to be suspended for his off-field transgressions.  The bad news is that back spasms have kept him out of practice all week, and could sideline him Sunday. That would open the door to Robert Turbin in a tasty matchup in Arizona.  The rookie is clearly worth picking up, if he’s still available.  But don’t write off Beast Mode just yet.  He’s a warrior, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him popping Skittles on the sideline after breaking another long run in the desert.

Those banking on Adrian Peterson’s triumphant return from his knee injury would be better off letting him spend Week 1 on their bench.  As extraordinary an athlete as he is, there’s a strong chance that Peterson will only see limited action on Sunday, if he plays at all.  In fact, three to four weeks of spotty play is more likely, with Toby Gerhart getting the bulk of the carries.  Gerhart has a decent matchup at home against the Jaguars.

Plan to give Trent Richardson the week off as well, as he’s not yet fully recovered from his training camp knee injury.  I wouldn’t waste a roster spot on Montario Hardesty, given the Browns’ tough matchup with the Eagles.

Well, you can’t say you weren’t warned before you spent a draft pick on Ryan Mathews.  He’s almost certain to miss the opener, and possibly longer, due to his preseason clavicle injury.  This is par for the course for Mathews, a great talent that simply can’t say on the field.  Ronnie Brown still has some gas left in his tank, but he’s expected to share the load with Curtis Brinkley and/or Jackie Battle.  Against the Raiders, none of the above are likely to help your fantasy team much.

The Pittsburgh backfield will certainly be an interesting one to watch early in the season.  Out of the blue, Rashard Mendenhall (knee) is back at practice and participating “fully.”  While his return to action in Week 1 would be a shocker, it now appears he will be suiting up much sooner than anticipated.  A string of injuries to presumptive starter Isaac Redman (ankle, knee) casts his availability for Sunday’s contest in doubt.  Meanwhile, Jonathan Dwyer has been the most impressive back in camp.  If Dwyer gets the start in Denver, he could stake his claim a heavy workload, even when Mendenhall returns.

Steve Smith appears to be fully recovered from his foot infection and should be in the Panthers’, and your, starting lineup against Tampa Bay.

On a side note, I spoke to Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan the other day, and he share his backfield plans for Week 1, and the entire season, with me.  And if you believe that, I’d like to speak with you about investing in my new hair-growth, weight-loss, testosterone-boosting ointment.

Witten active tonight; and more...

Make sure you're following me on Twitter (@ladd_biro) for all the late-breaking news prior to game time.  As always, I'll be tweeting game-day inactives, as well as any other news you need to set the best possible lineup.

Tonight, in a fairly significant surprise, the Cowboys have announced that Jason Witten will be active for the opener.  He's a big risk, because you know the Gmen will be aiming for his gut; but if he's your far-and-away best TE, he's probably worth the gamble in your starting lineup.

As for the rest of the Cowboys/Giants, start 'em if you got 'em.  The Giants' secondary is banged up badly, especially at corner; so Romo's prospects are high.  The Cowboys never stop Eli and his WRs, even when they're not 100%.  Both Miles and Dez are ready to roll, and I like DeMarco Murray's chances of getting off to a nice start tonight.  Bradshaw, too.

Of course, not all of the above will come up big.  But all are clearly starter-worthy tonight.

Also, you heard it here first: Kevin Ogletree is poised for a breakout game tonight as Dallas' No. 3 receiver.  You can take it to the bank!  (Editor's note: Okay fine, I added this part on Friday morning...)

But let's not bury the lead here.  THE NFL IS BACK!  

It's time to play football!

Final thoughts before the games begin

Your draft is in the books, or will be shortly.  The Cowboys and Giants kick off the NFL season Wednesday night.  The wait is nearly over for those of us whose lives seem just a tad incomplete without the thrill of fantasy football competition.

These final hours seem to be more than some of you can handle, however.  My Twitter account has been lit up with questions about various trade scenarios from owners who’ve apparently been staring at their rosters a little too hard and feel the need to do something, anything, to better position themselves for success out of the gate.

May I offer one simple word of advice?  Relax! 

Stop panicking about your team before it has even taken the field.  You presumably spent a reasonable (if not unreasonable) amount of time preparing for your draft, and you made the best choices you could under the circumstances.  Now give your guys a chance to compete.

There will be plenty of opportunities to tweak your roster, if necessary, after the season begins, either through trade or free agency.  Making an impulsive move now – driven by irrational concern or sheer boredom – is more likely to backfire than propel you to fantasy glory.

Heck, the NFL even cut 24 hours off our wait this year.  So take a deep breath, get your lineup set and spend a little extra time with the family.  Before you know it, Romo and Eli will be slinging the pigskin around and everything will be right in the world again. 

Okay, I’ll toss you one bone.  If Jonathan Dwyer is available in your league and you have an extra kicker, defense or other expendable player at the bottom of your roster, grab him.  The Steelers tailback has had an impressive preseason, and could even draw the Week 1 start against the Broncos, thanks to a slew of nagging injuries to Isaac Redman.

If the fast-rising Dwyer out-performs Redman in the opener, he could potentially seize the starting job going forward.  You’re better off grabbing him now, rather than taking your chances on the waiver wire next week.

Another hot Twitter topic centers on the status of Maurice Jones-Drew, who finally ended his acrimonious 38-day holdout and reported to the Jaguars on Sunday.  Will he play?  Will he start?  More specifically, should he be in your starting lineup, or resting safely on your bench in Week 1? 

Unfortunately, your guess is probably as good as mine, since Jags head coach Mike Mularkey hasn’t returned my calls, emails, texts, Tweets, pokes or smoke signals. 

No doubt, starting MJD in Week 1 poses a significant degree of risk.  The decision, therefore, comes down to your alternatives.  Do you have another running back with clearer prospects for success?  If you play with a flex position, do you have a safer option at WR or TE? 

I expect Jones-Drew will see some action on Sunday in Minnesota; but Rashad Jennings will draw the start and the bulk of the carries.  If you have a choice between those two, Jennings is your man. 

Earlier last week, Kenny Britt and his fantasy owners got the best news they could possibly have hoped for, when the NFL imposed a hand-slap suspension of just one week for the receiver’s eighth – eighth!!! – arrest since turning pro in 2009.  As a result, Britt catapulted up draft boards and gave those who gambled a late-round pick on him just days earlier a serendipitous boost to their 2012 prospects.

Britt, whose injured knee is expected to be fully healed by Week 2, has the potential to produce at an elite fantasy level.  An opening-game “bye” is a small price to pay for a fantasy wideout with that much potential.  Don’t ever get in a car he’s driving; but don’t hesitate to grab him if your draft is still ahead.

Those counting on big things from Hakeem Nicks should brace themselves for some pre-game jitters throughout the season.  The explosive wideout has admitted that his surgically repaired foot is not yet fully healed, and that he expects to play with pain all year.  That’s not what you want to hear in the preseason from one of your most important players. 

You know by now that Jason Witten’s prospects for playing in Wednesday’s opener are slim to none.  Like Britt, you’ll need to squirrel him away for a week; but probably no longer.  Once his lacerated spleen is fully healed, Witten should immediately return to elite form.

In even better news for Romo, both Dez Bryant (knee) and Miles Austin (hamstring) are fully expected to suit up for the Giants contest.

But to me, the most eagerly anticipated question of the 2012 season won’t be answered until Sunday night in Denver.  Will the historically durable, gun-slinging Peyton Manning be back, or will the post-neck injury version prove to be a fragile shell of the four-time league MVP?

The answer has huge implications not only for Manning’s owners and Broncos fans, but for those betting big on Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Jacob Tamme.

Oh yes, I am ready for some (fantasy) football. 

Final rankings are up

My FINAL round of positional rankings -- QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Ks, D/STs and the Top 100 -- are now posted here: http://www.scribd.com/laddbiro. 

Unless something dramatic happens, I don't intend to update these any more. 

Now go out and draft perfect, Fools!