My Sporting News Mock Draft -- From the 10 Spot

Just wrapped up my first official mock draft of the season. This one was with my colleagues at the Sporting News' Fantasy Source. As usual, they stuck me with a crappy draft slot (10 out of 12), re-confirming what we all already knew... They fear the Fool.

I'm not happy with my overall draft, which means it's probably awesome. Here's what I was able to cobble together.

1.10 Michael Turner -- Best RB still on the board, in my opinion.

2.03 Calvin "Megatron" Johnson -- It was a toss-up with Steven Jackson, who I think is being way overlooked this season. S-Jax ended up lasting until the mid-3rd round.

3.10 Jahvid Best -- Good value here, but didn't realize till later that I had just picked a second Lion. I won't make that mistake when I'm drafting for real.

4.03 Tony Romo -- Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Brees, Peyton all gone. Either take Romo, or play catch-up at the QB position all season.

5.10 Daniel Thomas -- Had to shore up the RB position, even though I'm light at WR. While I'm down on the rooks this year, I believe Thomas will be a true bell cow.

6.03 Stevie Johnson -- Solid WR2, though not without risk. The WR pool was fairly well drained.

7.10 Johnny Knox -- Never been a fan, but he'll be Cutler's No. 1 target, without much doubt. That's worth a 7th rounder.

8.03 Jay Cutler -- Panic pick. Huge buyer's remorse on this one. Not only am I a Cutler-hater, but I probably grabbed him way too early. Clock was ticking down, and I couldn't decide on a TE vs. WR, and, well, gagged.

9.10 Jacoby Ford -- A Raider, yes. A No. 1 WR with big upside? Yes.

10.03 Marcedes Lewis -- Finally got my TE. If he shows up like last year, he's a steal.

11.10 LaDainian Tomlinson -- The Jets say Shonn Greene will be the workhorse. I've heard that before. LT may still have a few surprises in store for us.

12.03 Plaxico Burress -- A shot in the dark.

13.10 Arrelious Benn -- If you believe the Bucs' offense is going places (and I do), the second-year wideout could be a big part of that.

14.03 Bears DST -- Meh.

15.10 Shane Vereen -- Pats have high hopes for him. So do I, now.

16.03 Nate Kaeding -- Grabbed him to start the run on kickers.

17.10 Donnie Avery -- If he's healthy, could be Bradford's top target.

There you have it. Can't say I'm proud of this one. I'll get better.

Rookie prospects even dimmer than usual

With all the hype and breathless reporting that greet rookie classes at the beginning of each NFL season, you’d think they would have a greater impact on fantasy leagues. Yet over the past two seasons, you could count the true difference-makers among the first-year players on one hand.

In 2009, Knowshon Moreno and Percy Harvin were solid, if unspectacular, fantasy contributors. Last year, Tampa Bay gave us LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams, the only rookies worthy of a regular starting role on a fantasy contender.

The pro game is simply too fast, too complex and too long for most newcomers to master in one season. And that’s in a typical year, with a full offseason of training camps, OTAs and class time to prepare.

As we know all too well, this is no typical season; so we’d be wise to lower our expectations accordingly.

Remember that when evaluating the fantasy potential of any rookie, talent is rarely the decisive factor. More relevant is the opportunity presented to the player, which is also a multi-faceted equation.

Does the newcomer have a clear path to a starting gig? Will he join a high-powered offense, or one whose punter is its most lethal weapon? Is he healthy heading into the season, or has he missed invaluable preseason reps due to nagging injuries?

With those caveats in mind, let’s examine the members of the Class of 2011 with the best opportunities to shine in their inaugural seasons.

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints. The table is set for no rookie like the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Ingram is a battering ram with outstanding vision and sure hands, and what he lacks in speed he makes up for in tackle-busting ability. He should become an instant starter and goal-line beast in New Orleans’ high-octane offense. The oft-injured Pierre Thomas is coming off ankle surgery and is unlikely to impede the rookie’s path to stardom.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins. Until Reggie Bush landed in South Beach, Thomas had the Miami backfield all to himself. But the rookie from Kansas State was drafted to be a workhorse, not a passing-game threat like Bush. Thomas’ upside will be limited more by the Dolphins’ offensive struggles than a competition for carries.

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons. Atlanta paid dearly to draft him, so he will be given every opportunity to excel. Jones has all the tools to develop into a superstar, including an up-and-coming quarterback and a prolific offense in dire need of a dynamic complement to elite wideout Roddy White. He’d make a great fantasy WR4 or WR5, but he’ll probably be drafted too high.

Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals. Tim Hightower is a Redskin and Beanie Wells has failed to seize the workhorse role envisioned when he was drafted in 2009. Enter Williams, a big-play threat with the potential to jumpstart the league’s worst rushing attack. Look for the rookie from Virginia Tech to share carries with Wells early on, with the balance shifting Williams’ way as the season wears on, especially if the veteran succumbs to yet another injury.

Alex Henery, K, Eagles. David Akers has been an elite fantasy kicker for years, thanks to Philly’s high-scoring offense. But he left for San Francisco in free agency, leaving the plum assignment to Henery, who set an NCAA record for career field-goal accuracy (89.5%) at Nebraska. Grab him late and reap the rewards.

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals. He has everything you want in a top-flight receiver, except an experienced quarterback to feed him the ball. Green’s combination of size (6-4, 211 pounds), quickness, crisp route running and outstanding hands will likely be squandered until Andy Dalton gets up to speed.

Look, but don’t touch

DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys. Felix Jones enters his fourth season as a tenuous starter at best. Murray, the explosive rookie from Oklahoma, will have an opportunity to seize the role over time, but a bum hamstring during training camp is doing little to dispel his injury-prone label.

Delone Carter, RB, Colts. Donald Brown will begin the season as Joseph Addai’s primary backup. Carter will likely finish the season there.

Greg Little, WR, Browns. The physically gifted wideout instantly becomes the best receiver in Cleveland. If he and Colt McCoy can develop a strong rapport, Little could offer some late-season value. More likely, he won’t be worth a roster spot until 2012.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. On the plus side, he will likely be the Day One starter. On the down side, well, is everything else. Carolina is in rebuilding mode (a nice way of saying they were the NFL’s worst team in 2010), and Newton arrives bereft of experience in the pro-style offense. His transition will surely be ugly at times.


Next week: We’ll dissect the fallout from the recent free agency frenzy.

Free Agent Feeding Frenzy

OK, Fools; it's on. The most important thing we can do in the next week or two is figure out who's going where, and who's staying put. I'll do my best to track the important fantasy players here, and I'll update this list as soon as I hear something official. Because you can rarely believe what you hear from owners, players and their agents, I'm going to stick to the official announcements, and try to avoid the rumor mill.

No worries...it's going to be plenty interesting even without the rumors. Here's what we know as of August 6:

WHO'S MOVING

QBs
Derek Anderson, Panthers -- Released by the Cardinals and landed in Carolina.
Jake Delhomme -- Dumped by the Browns.
Trent Edwards, Raiders -- Former Bill will push Jason Campbell.
Bruce Gradkowski, Bengals -- Former Raider has agreed to two-year deal in Cincinnati. Wouldn't be a shocker if he started the season.
Rex Grossman, Redskins -- Returns to Washington to battle for the starting job. Let the dancing in the streets of DC begin!
Matt Hasselbeck, Titans -- Released by Seahawks. Signed by Tennessee.
Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks -- Traded from the Vikings.
Kevin Kolb, Cardinals -- As expected, Philly shipped him to Arizona for CB Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd-rounder in 2012.
Donovan McNabb, Vikings -- Traded from the Redskins for a 6th-round pick and a case of Schlitz.
Matt Moore -- Released by Panthers. Signed by Dolphins to two-year deal. And with that, every Dolphin fan is deflated.
Tyler Thigpen, Bills -- Signed three-year deal with Buffalo after leaving Miami.
Vince Young, Eagles -- Released by Titans. Signed one-year deal with Philly to backup Vick.


RBs
Marion Barber, Bears -- Continues the migration of Dallas castoffs to Chicago.
Ronnie Brown, Eagles -- Joins the Super Bowl-or-Bust Eagles from the Dolphins.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins -- Saints and Dolphins agreed to a trade that will send Reggie to South Beach.
Mike Hart -- Released by Colts.
Tim Hightower, Redskins -- Traded by the Cards.
Brandon Jackson, Browns -- Ryan Grant's backup now becomes Peyton Hillis' sub.
Vonta Leach, Ravens -- Will open holes for Ray Rice instead of Arian Foster this year.
LeRon McClain, Chiefs -- Signed a one-year deal to leave Baltimore for KC.
Willis McGahee, Broncos -- Released by Ravens. Will poach TDs from Knowshon Moreno instead this season.
Jerious Norwood, Rams -- Moves from Atlanta to St. Louis to back up S-Jax.
Clinton Portis -- Cut by Redskins before the lockout.
Darren Sproles, Saints -- Leaves San Diego to take over where Reggie Bush left off.
Cadillac Williams, Rams -- Suddenly, the St. Louis backfield is crowded.
Ricky Williams, Ravens -- Signs two-year deal to team with Ray Rice in Baltimore.

WRs
Devin Aromashodu, Vikings -- Moves from Bears to division rival.
Steve Breaston, Chiefs -- Heading to KC from AZ.
Plaxico Burress, Jets -- Takes his shot with the other New York team.
Chris Chambers -- Released by the Chiefs.
Jerricho Cotchery, Steelers -- Released by the Jets. He'll round out the WR corps in Pittsburgh.
Buster Davis, Bills -- Former first-round Charger pick will try to matter in Buffalo.
Braylon Edwards, 49ers -- Moves cross-country after being crowded out of the Jets lineup.
Lee Evans, Ravens -- Leaves Buffalo to become No. 2 wideout in Baltimore.
Jabar Gaffney, Redskins -- Traded from Denver to Washington.
Michael Jenkins, Vikings -- Moves from Atlanta to Minnesota.
Derrick Mason -- Released by Ravens, and signed with the Jets.
Legedu Naanee, Panthers -- Vowel-blessed wideout moves from San Diego.

Chad Ochocinco, Patriots -- Traded by the Bengals. Wow...talk about upgrading your surroundings.
Terrell Owens -- Won't return to Bengals. Hoping to find a new team willing to gamble on him, especially since he'll likely miss at least half the season with a torn ACL.
Antwaan Randle El -- Released by the Steelers.
Sidney Rice, Seahawks -- Will join old backup QB Jackson in Seattle.
Laurent Robinson, Chargers -- Packing his bags and leaving St. Louis behind.
Steve Smith, Eagles -- Injured wideout bolts from Giants to division rivals.
Mike Sims-Walker, Rams -- Cut by Jags before lockout, then signed one-year deal in St. Louis. I'm intrigued.
Brad Smith, Bills -- Perennial sleeper pick by other "gurus" signs four-year deal to move upstate.
Donte Stallworth, Redskins -- Former Raven signed with Washington.
Brandon Stokley -- Leaving Seattle, but not for Washington. He turned down the Redskins' offer because of the glut of WRs (like him, mostly over 30) they have recently amassed.
Roy Williams -- Axed by Cowboys, then signed with Bears. He'll join ex-Cowboy WR Sam Hurd there as well.

TEs
Kevin Boss, Raiders -- Former Giant will replace Zach Miller.
Alge Crumpler -- Released by New England.
Daniel Graham, Titans -- Moves from Denver.
Todd Heap, Cardinals -- Released by Ravens, and landed in Arizona.
Zach Miller, Seahawks -- Seattle won the bidding war with his old team in Oakland.
Greg Olson, Panthers -- Traded by the Bears. Carolina also signed Jeremy Shockey prior to the lockout, and just got Ben Hartsock from the Jets.
Bo Scaife, Bengals -- Former Titan could be Andy Dalton's relief valve.
Matt Spaeth, Bears -- Brought over from Pittsburgh to help fill Olson's old shoes, along with Desmond Clark.

Ks
David Akers, 49ers -- Heads to the left coast from Philly, which will roll with rookie Alex Henery.
Kris Brown -- Released by Cowboys.
Brandon Coutu, Seahawks -- Will battle with Jeff Reed for the kicking gig in Seattle.
Shayne Graham, Redskins -- Signed with Washington, then released again.
Olindo Mare, Panthers -- Moves from Seattle to Carolina.
Jeff Reed, Seahawks -- Former 49er and Steeler will compete with Coutu.


WHO'S STAYING

QBs
Alex Smith, 49ers -- Re-signed to a one-year deal.

RBs
Joseph Addai, Colts -- Agreed to contract renewal to stay in Indy.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants -- Stays in NY with a new four-year contract.
Cedric Benson, Bengals -- Staying in Cinci for another (losing) year.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots -- Stays put and solidifies the Pats' running attack.
Brian Leonard, Bengals -- Will stay put in Cinci as Cedric's backup.
Mewelde Moore, Steelers -- Sitting tight in Pittsburgh.
Jason Snelling, Falcons -- Will remain Burner Turner's handcuff.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers -- Agreed to a five-year renewal with Carolina.

WRs
Michael Clayton, Giants -- Former Buc re-signs with the team that picked him up last season.
Malcom Floyd, Chargers -- Stays put in San Diego.
Santonio Holmes, Jets -- Has agreed to a massive five-year deal ($18.5 million guaranteed) to stay in the Big Apple. He's good, but not that good.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers -- Will stay in San Diego after signing non-exclusive franchise tag.
Jacoby Jones, Texans -- Agreed to terms to continue underachieving in Houston.
James Jones, Packers -- Returns to the Super Bowl champs.
Lance Moore, Saints -- Will remain in New Orleans after signing a five-year extension.
Santana Moss, Redskins -- Re-signed to a three-year deal.
Steve Smith, Panthers -- Quashed trade speculation and agreed to report to Carolina camp to play under current contract, which has 2 years remaining.

TEs
Desmond Clark, Bears -- Re-signs with Chicago, and could reclaim his starting role now that Olson is a Panther.

Ks
Connor Barth, Bucs -- Sticking with the up-and-coming club.
Mason Crosby, Packers -- Re-signed to five-year deal.
Nick Folk, Jets -- Will return to the team on a one-year deal.
Ryan Longwell, Vikings -- Agreed to multi-year deal to remain in Minnehaha.
Adam Vinatieri, Colts -- Re-signed with Indy.

WHO'S RETIRING


Marc Bulger -- Decided being a backup was no longer for him.
Kerry Collins -- 16 years of mediocrity will have to be enough.
Brett Favre -- Please. Just stay home.
Carson Palmer -- The Bengals won't trade him, so he appears ready to retire as threatened. Welcome to the big leagues, Andy Dalton.
Randy Moss -- The Freak is hanging up his cleats.

Wassup, Windy City?

Nealy lost in the hoopla over the ratification of the new CBA by the NFL owners -- and the players' refusal to be rushed into voting on the deal -- was the news that the prestigious Chicago Sun-Times has elected to carry The Fantasy Fool in its pages beginning this season.

I'm excited and honored to break into the Windy City for the first time with my weekly columns, and I'm looking forward to welcoming a new generation of Fools to the dark side.

My first column -- covering the Rookie Class of 2011 -- is slated to run in all my papers (and on this blog) on Monday, August 8. My first round of positional rankings will appear a week later.

Yes, it's time to hit the books! And this August should be even more fun than normal, with potentially 100 or more big names seeking greener pastures in free agency.

The team to watch? Tampa Bay. They have not only had two excellent draft classes in a row, but they have roughly $60 million of salary cap room that they must spend. Don't be surprised if they scoop up two or three of the top free agents right out of the box.

Chief Fool re-signs with Sporting News

Who says huge contracts aren't being executed during the lockout?

In a clear vote of confidence for the 2011 NFL season, Sporting News has re-signed the Chief Fool, Ladd Biro, to continue his weekly column for the Fantasy Source. Terms of the deal were not announced, but sources have speculated that a massive raise was demanded by the reigning "Football Writer of the Year."


"Yeah, uh, not so much," said Biro, when reached via phone at his bungalow in Phuket. "But I'm proud to be back for another year with the best team of fantasy writers in the business."

Ladd will continue penning his "Fourth & Long" columns exclusively for Sporting News every Friday, beginning late in the preseason.

We're on Facebook now!

The Chief Fool has finally gotten around to setting up a Fantasy Fools page on Facebook. Please "Like" us and tell your friends to join the online community there as well. This Fantasy Fools blog will remain the primary home for my fantasy content, but the Facebook page will hopefully draw more prospective Fools to the fold and further my quest for global fantasy domination.

Offseason player movements of note

As we settle in for what could be a very long, dry spell without significant fantasy football content, I thought the best service I could offer here is to keep a running tab of the offseason movement of key players.

The following list will be updated on an as-needed basis. If you notice that I've missed anything significant, please post a comment below and I will fix it.

As of March 11, the following players have been waived, traded or left their team via free agency:

RBs
Clinton Portis -- Cut by Redskins 2/28
Tiki Barber -- Un-retired 3/8. The Giants still hold his rights, but say they'll release him once the new CBA is settled. Who'll take a shot on him at 36 remains to be seen.

WRs
Mike Sims-Walker -- Cut by Jaguars 3/4.

TEs
Daniel Graham -- Cut by Broncos 3/2.
Donald Lee -- Cut by Packers 3/2.
Jeremy Shockey -- Released by Saints 2/2. Signed by Panthers 3/3.

Unrestricted Free Agents
Thanks to my colleague, Brad Pinkerton of the Sporting News, here's a list of likely unrestricted free agents we will be watching once the new CBA is in place:

QB Matt Hasselbeck

RBs DeAngelo Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Bush, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, Darren Sproles and Cadillac Williams

WRs Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Malcom Floyd, Steve Smith (NYG), Plaxico Burress, Mark Clayton, Jacoby Jones, James Jones, Randy Moss, Santana Moss and Terrell Owens

TEs Kevin Boss, Zach Miller (OAK)