Saturday, March 2, 2013

Offseason moves of note

Greetings, Fools.  During the long offseason without fantasy football, there's not much news to report until we get to NFL Draft time.  So, in an effort to keep track of the ever-shifting landscape of NFL rosters, we'll keep a running tally of all the free agent moves, trades and cuts that could have an impact on the 2013 fantasy football season.

We won't cover players that re-sign with their current clubs, though.  Just the moves that involve players being released from, or swapping, teams.

As of August 3, here are the moves that matter:

QBs
Carson Palmer, Cardinals -- Traded from the Raiders to take over one of the worst passing attacks in the league.
Matt Flynn, Raiders -- Will attempt to replace Palmer after losing out to Russell Wilson in Seattle.
Alex Smith, Chiefs -- 49ers fans won't have him to kick around anymore.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Titans -- Released by the Bills, who'll now look to the draft for a savior.  Later agrees to serve as Jake Locker's backup on the Titans, who cut Matt Hasselbeck.
Matt Cassel, Vikings -- Flees Kansas City to compete with, or backup, Christian Ponder.
David Garrard, Jets -- Signed to light a fire under Sanchez.  Yeah, that should work perfectly.  Actually, as of May 16, it looks like Garrard is heading into retirement.
Kevin Kolb, Bills -- Cut loose by the Cardinals.  Kolb was a luxury for a team stacked with the elite QB lineup of John Skelton, Brian Hoyer, Rian Lindley and Drew Stanton.  Now he'll lead Buffalo to the Promised Land.  Uh huh...
Matt Hasselbeck, Colts -- Set free by Tennessee to latch on with division-rivals in Indy.
Jason Campbell, Browns -- Will compete for the starting job with Weeden.
Colt McCoy, 49ers -- Browns reject will backup Kaepernick.
John Skelton, Bengals -- With Palmer in place, Skelton goes house-shopping.  Finds a place in Cinci.  Do you care?  I didn't think so.
Brady Quinn, Seahawks -- Former Brown and Chief preparing to be a former Seahawk.
Trent Edwards -- Former backup sent packing by the Eagles.
Tim Tebow, Patriots -- Released by the Jets following the draft. Signed by New England.  Could spell the end of the Brady Era...

RBs
Reggie Bush, Lions -- Trades South Beach for Motown.
Steven Jackson, Falcons -- As expected, the Rams' workhorse was lured away by the contending Falcons to replace...
Michael Turner -- No longer much of a burner, released by the Falcons in a salary cap move.
Shonn Greene, Titans -- Now, instead of two-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust in the Jets offense, he'll underachieve in Chris Johnson's shadow.
Willis McGahee -- Released from the crowded Broncos backfield.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts -- Cut by the G-men, also due to salary considerations.  Eventually lands in Indy, which could surely use him.
Beanie Wells -- Cards decide to cut Beanie loose, rather than waiting until Week 2 or 3 to place him on IR.
Rashard Mendenhall, Cardinals -- The solution to Arizona's perennial rushing woes?  I think not...
Leon Washington, Patriots -- Add the former Seahawk to the long list of role players in the New England backfield.
Danny Woodhead, Chargers -- Didn't take long for the shifty back to read the writing on the wall in New England.
Peyton Hillis, Bucs -- Former Brown, Chief and Madden cover boy joins a crowded Tampa Bay backfield.
Mike Goodson, Jets -- Former Raider could finally get his shot at significant carries, since the Jets are thin at the position.
Justin Forsett, Jaguars -- Arian's backup in Houston will now backup MJD.
Rashad Jennings, Raiders -- Former Jag didn't hack it when MJD went down; will he be there for Run DMC?
Chris Ivory, Jets -- Will get his shot to start for a team in desperate need of a reliable bell cow.
LeGarrette Blount, Patriots -- Former Buc will compete for playing time in New England's crowded backfield.
Felix Jones, Eagles -- My (soon-to-be-former) neighbor leaves his backup role in Dallas for a similar position in Philly.

WRs
Mike Wallace, Dolphins -- Miami lands the big fish from Pittsburgh.
Wes Welker, Broncos -- Poor guy.  Now he has to fetch passes from Peyton Manning.  Will he ever catch a break?
Danny Amendola, Patriots -- Welker-lite reports for duty to New England.  Whaddya wanna bet that every (other) fantasy "guru" lists Amendola as a sleeper next year?  Sorry guys...when everybody knows it, you're not a sleeper...
Percy Harvin, Seahawks -- Traded by Vikes for a 1st-rounder.  Let the migraines begin in San Fran...
Anquan Boldin, 49ers -- Traded by Ravens for a 6th-rounder after sides couldn't agree on -- guess what? -- money.
Brandon Lloyd -- One-year wonder set loose by the Patriots.
Michael Jenkins, Patriots -- Now that he'll be shagging passes from Brady, Jenkins is sure to...disappear again. 

Greg Jennings, Vikings -- Leaves the Pack and, pfffttttt....just like that...his elite status is history.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Colts -- Former 1st-round pick let his opportunity with the Raiders slip through his fingers.  Latches on with Indy.
Laurent Robinson -- Released by Jags one year after they paid him the big bucks.  Will Dallas come a-callin'?
Devery Henderson, Redskins -- One of Fantasyland's most frustrating, inconsistent, unreliable receivers moved north to Washington. Don't count on RG3 doing what Brees couldn't.
Titus Young -- Troubled but talented speedster signed by Rams after being released by the Lions.  Alas, his stay in St. Louis was short-lived.
Kevin Walter -- Cut by the Texans.  Admit it, you thought they did that a year ago...
Donny Avery, Chiefs -- Leaves Indy for KC.  Can he stay healthy?
Kevin Ogletree, Bucs -- Yawn.
Brandon Gibson, Dolphins -- Former Ram joins Miami's near-complete offensive makeover.
Arrelious Benn, Eagles -- Bucs' former 1st-round pick heads to the City of Brotherly Shove.
Louis Murphy, Giants -- He barely made a ripple in Carolina; so how's he going to make waves in New York?
Domenik Hixon, Panthers -- Former Giant will try to stay healthy in Carolina.
Davone Bess, Browns -- Acquired from Miami.
Josh Cribbs, Raiders -- No, he's not more attractive in Oakland than he was in Cleveland.
Austin Collie, 49ers -- If he can just stay healthy (big if), he could work his way into the #2 WR role in San Fran.
Early Doucet, Seahawks -- Late signee with Seattle.
"The Other" Steve Smith -- Former Giant, Eagle, Ram and, most recently, Buc retires, eliminating the need for us to distinguish him from "The Real" Steve Smith in Carolina.

TEs
Martellus Bennett, Bears -- Lands nice free-agent gig in Chicago after emerging in NY.
Jared Cook, Rams -- Former Titan will try to fulfill his potential in St. Louis.
Delanie Walker, Titans -- Leaves Vernon Davis' shadow to disappear in the Titans' offense.
Anthony Fasano, Chiefs -- Former Dolphin will catch passes from Alex Smith.
Dustin Keller, Dolphins -- Former Jet moves to hated division rivals, providing a solid upgrade for Miami over Fasano.
Brandon Myers, Giants -- Ex-Raider moves cross-country.
Tom Crabtree, Bucs -- Now out of Jermichael Finley's shadow, could be a sleeper with little competition in Tampa Bay.
Kellen Winslow, Jr., Jets -- Former Buc will have a good chance to start in New York.  But that doesn't exactly sound tantalizing, does it?

Ks
Jason Hanson -- One of the best hung up his cleats.
David Akers, Lions -- After erratic season, kicked to the curb by the 49ers.  Picked up by Detroit after Hanson retired.
Josh Brown, Giants -- Attention, Lawrence Tynes.  Time to find a realtor.
Phil Dawson, 49ers -- Cleveland's most tenured player decides it's time to start winning.
Shayne Graham, Browns -- Well-traveled kicker will take a shot at filling Dawson's shoes.
Nate Kaeding -- Retired after suffering groin injury in camp.
Billy Cundiff, Jets -- Signed in late July to compete wiht Nick Folk.



Monday, January 7, 2013

2012 Perfect Draft: The Final Solution

Hindsight may be 20/20.  But hindsight armed with statistics can be brutal.

What seems so obvious now – of course Alfred Morris was poised for a breakout year; didn’t you see him in the preseason? – wasn’t quite so crystal clear to most of us just five short months ago.

It’s all part of our elusive quest for the perfect draft, the Holy Grail of fantasy football.  One of these days, I’m going to achieve it.  Probably right after I cure cancer, win the lottery and break up with the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders.

Until then, I’ll keep torturing myself – and you – by exploring what could have been had we made all the right decisions during our preseason draft.  Yes, dear reader, it’s time for my oft-imitated, always-controversial, yet magically delicious 2012 Perfect Draft: The Final Solution.

As always, we start with a few key assumptions.  First, we’re in a 10-team non-keeper league using a standard scoring system that starts one QB, two RBs, three WRs, and one TE, K and team defense.  Second, we are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a snake format, meaning we won’t have a shot at Arian Foster.  Third, since all drafts play out differently, we’ll need a little luck along the way.  Finally, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2012 Fantasy Draft, we should have selected…

Round 1.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady would do just fine, but Brees gets the nod for his stellar consistency and superior performance during the fantasy postseason.

Round 2.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings.  Fantasyland’s MVP fell to the third round in many drafts, but let’s not tempt fate.

Round 3.  Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears.  A.J. Green got off to a faster start, but Marshall was more consistent throughout the season and finished stronger.  He had only two games with fewer than 90 yards or a touchdown and reached the end zone in nine different weeks.

Round 4.  Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys.  Once he caught fire in Week 10, Bryant was arguably the most valuable player on any fantasy roster.  He’ll propel us to a title down the stretch.  

Round 5.  Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers.  He’ll win Week 9 for us all by himself.  We now own the No. 1 QB and two of the top three RBs and WRs in the business.

Round 6.  Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos.  The best part about drafting the Comeback Player of the Year is that we’ll get to complain to our league-mates about how much trouble we have choosing between our two awesome QBs each week.

Round 7.  Eric Decker, WR, Broncos.  We’d love to deploy both of Manning’s starting wideouts, but Decker can be secured a round or two later than Demaryius Thomas and he’ll deliver nearly as much firepower.

Round 8.  Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots.  Easy to overlook in New England’s pass-happy offense, Ridley rode his quiet consistency to a Top 10 ranking.

Round 9.  Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons.  The future Hall of Famer is still an elite fantasy performer, yet he was typically the 10th tight end selected in the draft.

Round 10. Bears defense/special teams.  For most of the season, no other unit even came close.  Chicago led the league in turnovers and defensive scoring, and gave up the third-fewest points.

Round 11.  Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers.  We’ll probably never start him, but it was nice to see Crabtree finally emerge as a viable fantasy performer. 

Round 12.  Randall Cobb, WR, Packers.  Late-round sleepers are meant to be stashed away for a few weeks, in hopes that they’ll begin contributing by mid-year.  Cobb started paying dividends in Week 5.

Round 13. James Jones, WR, Packers.  What the heck?  He mixed in some stinkers, but no receiver visited the end zone more than Jones.

Round 14.  Seahawks defense/special teams.  We don’t normally advocate drafting two defenses, but why should we allow a competitor to benefit from Seattle’s elite unit?  We’ll even favor them down the stretch over the Bears.

Round 15.  Heath Miller, TE, Steelers.  Miller had a career year, finishing among the Top 5 tight ends, and he wasn’t even drafted in most leagues.

Round 16.  Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins.  Our backfield now includes two rookies and a guy coming off major reconstructive knee surgery.  Perfect.

Round 17.  Blair Walsh, K, Vikings.  As usual, several of the best kickers are available in the final round, including the rookie that outshined them all.

There you have it.  Just like we drew it up, right?

So, Fools, this is my last regular column of the season.  But don't fret.  The 2013 fantasy season will be here before we know it.  Be sure to follow me on Twitter so you'll know when I've posted news you can use here on the Fantasy Fools blog.  We’ll be back to chase the perfect draft again in just a few months.

Thanks for tuning in!

Monday, December 31, 2012

Biro's Heroes & Zeros


Before we close the books on another exhilarating/frustrating/awesome/humiliating (circle one) fantasy season, let’s take a quick stroll back through 2012 to examine the players we rooted for and against and – with as much objectivity as we can muster – give credit where credit is due.

As always, our annual accolades (and condemnations) have but a few important criteria:

  1. Consistency on a weekly basis is next to godliness.
  2. Production during the fantasy playoffs – for our purposes, NFL Weeks 14 through 16 – is given extra weight.  Players who let their owners down at the worst possible time earn our eternal scorn.  (Hear that, Victor?)
  3. For the most part, Week 17 is dead to us.  (Sorry, Eli.)

Without further ado, I am pleased to present the 2012 Biro’s Heroes & Zeros Awards:

Most Valuable Player: Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings.  AD was the common denominator in countless fantasy championships, largely because his services could be secured as late as the third round in most preseason drafts.  Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers were all outstanding; but there was precious little light between the three elite QBs.  Runner-up: Arian Foster, RB, Texans.

“Peerless Price Memorial” Bust of the Year: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals.  It doesn’t matter that it wasn’t his fault.  Fitz played all 16 games and couldn’t even crack the Top 40 receiver rankings.  He was unstartable for nearly half the season, which is devastating for a second-round pick.  Runner-up: Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders.   

Rookie of the Year:  Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins. Doug Martin ranked higher, but a huge share of his production came in one game (272 combined yards, 4 TDs in Week 9).  Morris gets the nod due to his humble draft status, more consistent production and superior results during the fantasy postseason. Runner-up: Martin, RB, Buccaneers. 

Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos.  Peterson was a Top 10 running back last year.  Manning didn’t play a snap in 2011 due to neck injuries, then returned to elite status with a brand new team.  Runner-up: Peterson.

Mr. Reliable: Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears.  Had only two games with fewer than 90 yards or a touchdown, reached the end zone in nine different weeks, and finished strong.  Runner-up: Brees.

Surprise of the Year: Morris.  Undrafted in many leagues, and not named the starter until Week 1, Morris ended the season among the elite fantasy tailbacks.  Nobody, including the Redskins, saw that coming.  Runner-up: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks.

Best Waiver Wire Acquisition: James Jones, WR, Packers. Scooped up in most leagues after Greg Jennings went down in Week 4, Jones went on to accumulate more TDs than any receiver in the league.  Runner-up: Danario Alexander, WR, Chargers.

Mr. Big Play: Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs.  Among his six combined TDs were scoring jaunts of 37, 80, 86 and 91 yards. Runner-up: Doug Martin.

Most Devastating Injury Loss: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars.  Knocked out for the duration in his sixth game, the second-round draft pick had no proxy behind him to make up for his loss. Runner-up: Greg Jennings, WR, Packers.

Steal of the Draft: Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons.  The top tight end in Fantasyland was available in the 10th round or later in most 10-team leagues.  On average, nine other players at his position were selected before the future Hall of Famer. Runner-up: Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins.

Most Overrated: Matt Stafford, QB, Lions. A consensus Top 5 fantasy passer heading into the season, Stafford generated plenty of yardage, but just six games with multiple TDs through Week 16.  He also threw nearly as many interceptions (16) as TD passes (17).  Runner-up: McFadden.

“Thomas Jones Memorial” Most Underrated: Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots.  Despite a quiet consistency that led to his Top 10 finish, skeptical owners routinely questioned whether or not Ridley was start-worthy.  Runner-up: Eric Decker, WR, Broncos.

Made Chicken Salad from Chicken Scratch: Jamaal Charles.  On a team virtually bereft of talent to support him, Charles still managed to produce at an elite level. Runner-up: Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars.

Biggest Postseason Disappointment: Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, WRs, Giants. Both performed well in Week 14, then imploded over the next two games.  After a 40-yard outing in Week 15, Nicks was blanked the following game.  Cruz had just 36 total yards during that stretch.  Runner-up: Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens.

Most Spectacular Bench Performance: Shonn Greene, RB, Jets. After four straight scoreless weeks with no more than 40 rushing yards, Greene lit up the Colts for 161 yards and a TD trifecta in Week 6.  Runner-up: Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars (7 receptions for 236 yards, 1 TD in Week 11).

Lived Up to the Hype: Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins. My “Most Likely to Succeed” runner-up in last year’s awards combined a deadly accurate arm with game-breaking running skills to deliver elite results right out of the gate.  You’ll pay dearly for him in next season’s draft.  Runner-up: Doug Martin.

Most Marginalized by Pathetic QB Play: Larry Fitzgerald. The once-elite wideout’s talents were squandered by a rogue’s gallery of passers, including Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley and Brian Hoyer.  Runner-up: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs.

“Frisman Jackson Memorial” Irrational Exuberance Award:  Kevin Ogletree, WR, Cowboys.  Fantasy enthusiasts thought they spotted the 2012 version of Laurent Robinson as they watched Ogletree amass 114 yards and two TDs in the season opener.  The most-added free agent of Week 1 promptly disappeared and was dumped weeks later by his disappointed owners.  Runner-up: Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles.

Worst Sophomore Jinx: Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. He found his mojo late in the season; but prior to Week 12, Newton’s owners were cursing themselves for investing a premium draft pick on him.  Runner-up: Roy Helu, RB, Redskins.  

Team Bust of the Year (a.k.a. They Are Who We Thought They Were): Arizona Cardinals.  There isn’t a player on this team that you regret not drafting.  And no, the defense doesn’t count. Runner-up: Oakland Raiders.

“Plaxico Burress Memorial” Bonehead of the Year: Titus Young, WR, Lions.  Blessed with an abundance of natural talent, Young apparently has the intellect and maturity of a Jersey Shore character.  He flashed his potential in Week 8, then was suspended by his coach for the rest of the season just a few weeks later. Runner-up: Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers.

Most Likely to Succeed in 2013: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts.  Reggie Wayne is getting up there in age, but Hilton has already developed excellent chemistry with his fellow rookie and franchise quarterback, Andrew Luck.  That duo should be explosive in their second season together.  Runner-up: Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars.

As always, I’m open to your feedback on these awards.  Feel free to comment below, and be sure to begin your message with “You’re an idiot because…”

Next week: The Perfect Draft: Final Cut, wraps up the season.

Week 17 Heroes & Zeros


This was a great week to start…

QBs
Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Amassed 365 yards and 4 TDs with no INTs but 1 fumble.
Drew Brees, Saints – Passed for 396 yards and 4 TDs, with 1 INT.
Eli Manning, Giants – Racked up 5 TDs while passing for a modest 208 yards.
Peyton Manning, Broncos – Surgically dismantled the Chiefs for 304 yards and 3 TDs without a turnover.

RBs
Alfred Morris, Redskins – Romped over the Cowboys for 200 yards and 3 TDs, plus 2 catches for 12 more yards.
Adrian Peterson, Vikings – Crushed the Packers with 199 rushing yards and a TD, plus a 2-yard TD reception.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers – Raced for 210 yards and a pair of TDs.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers – Ran for 142 yards and a TD, plus 4 receptions for 18 yards.
Stevan Ridley, Patriots – Ran for 74 yards and 2 TDs.
Mike Tolbert, Panthers – Ran for just 25 yards but scored 3 short TDs, and caught a 22 yarder.

WRs
Greg Jennings, Packers – Came back to form with 8 receptions for 120 yards and 2 TDs.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers – Had a career day with 8 receptions for 172 yards and 2 TDs.
Andre Johnson, Texans – A dozen catches for 141 yards was sweet for PPR leaguers.
Marques Colston, Saints – His 5 catches resulted in 52 yards and 2 scores.
Reuben Randall, Giants – Caught 4 passes for 58 yards and 2 TDs.
Eric Decker, Broncos – Grabbed 7 balls for 76 yards and 2 TDs.
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – He also grabbed 7 balls, and generated 122 yards and a TD.
Michael Floyd, Cardinals – Had the best day of his rookie season with 8 receptions for 166 yards and a TD, plus a fumble.  Too bad nobody owns him.

TEs
Jimmy Graham, Saints – Turned 9 passes into 115 yards and a TD.

D/STs
Titans – Accumulated 7 sacks, 3 INTs, 2 TDs on INTs and 2 more on punt returns.

This was a great week to play against…

QBs
Joe Flacco, Ravens – Made just a token appearance, passing for 34 yards.
Andy Dalton, Bengals – Notched just 78 yards and 1 TD before being yanked early.
Matt Schaub, Texans – Held to 275 yards and no TDs, plus 2 INTs.
Cam Newton, Panthers – Passed for 248 yards and ran for 34, but didn’t score and tossed an INT.

RBs
Ray Rice, Ravens – Got just 5 yards on his 3 carries.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals – Was active, but you wouldn’t know it by his lack of mention in the box score.
Beanie Wells, Cardinals – Active, but didn’t see the field after mouthing off about auditioning for other teams.
Ryan Grant, Packers – Only 2 yards on 2 carries.
Mark Ingram, Saints – Led his team with 39 rushing yards.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins – Ran for 26 yards and caught 2 passes for 23 yards.
Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers – Combined for just 61 total yards.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Just 53 rushing and 14 receiving yards.
Darren McFadden, Raiders – Underwhelmed again with just 57 rushing yards.

WRs
Torrey Smith, Ravens – Took an early shower, before he could catch a pass.
Hakeem Nicks, Giants – Posted a goose egg.
Sidney Rice, Seahawks – So did he.
Miles Austin, Cowboys – Blanked after getting roughed up early.
Brandon Lloyd, Patriots – 9 yards on his only catch.
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – 13 yards on 2 passes.  Sadly, it’s what we’ve come to expect.
A.J. Green, Bengals – Just 2 receptions for 26 yards in a cameo appearance.
Danny Amendola, Rams – Another disappointing outcome, with just 27 yards on 4 catches.
Reggie Wayne, Colts – Limited to 40 yards on 4 balls.
Kenny Britt, Titans – Only 21 yards on 2 catches.
Nate Washington, Titans – He got 21 yards on his only catch.
Pierre Garcon, Redskins – Just 46 yards on 3 passes.

TEs
Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – Another no-show.
Scott Chandler, Bills – Blanked by the Jets.
Vernon Davis, 49ers – Had a 5-yard reception on the day.
Jacob Tamme, Broncos – Caught a 13 yarder.
Owen Daniels, Texans – Only 27 yards on 3 receptions.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Sunday morning updates -- Week 17

Good morning, Fools.  I hope you're not contesting a championship today, but there's no reason you have to stop playing altogether, either.

In two of my leagues, we play a Week 17 "Free for All Bowl," in which every team -- including those that missed out on the playoffs -- sets one final lineup.  The top overall scorer wins 5% of the pot.  It's a good way to keep the fantasy fun going for another weekend, and it gives us another reason to tune in the Red Zone Channel one last time.

So, for those of us with something on the line in today's games, here's the latest skinny from around the league:

Why shouldn't you play a Week 17 title match?  Here's your latest reason: Ray Rice is NOT expected to play today, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.  With little on the line, there's no reason for the Ravens to risk their star to injury prior to the postseason.  While this isn't official, Schefter usually knows what he's talking about.

It could be a big day for rookie RB Bernard Pierce...

No word yet on Flacco, Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin (shoulder); but it sure makes you think a similar stance would be taken on them.

We learned earlier this week that Trent Richardson, MJD, Mike Wallace, Pierre Thomas, Mario Manningham and Mike Nugent were done for the season.  Since all but Richardson have been placed on IR, they won't appear on the inactive lists.  Jets TE Dustin Keller also won't play today.

Don't count on Jonathan Stewart or Vernon Davis (concussion) to be available either.

However, it appears that Rob Gronkowski will suit up, and at least get a few snaps.  It's not clear that he will make more than a cameo appearance, however; so if you have a decent TE alternative, you might be better off taking it.  That said, nobody would be surprised to see Gronk spike one in the end zone today.

I was wrong earlier in the week when I indicated that Matt Leinart would be the starting QB in Oakland.  That will be Terrelle Pryor instead.  The change doesn't make me feel any differently about the Raiders' wideouts, including Denarius Moore.  Keep him on your bench.

That's it for now.  Inactives come next via Twitter (www.twitter.com/ladd_biro).  Have a great Sunday, and good luck to all Fools playing for something!

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Saturday injury updates, and more

Here are a few snippets from yesterday's 4th & Long column on Sporting News, along with a few updates from today's news.

If he plays at all, Trent Richardson is only expected to see spot duty thanks to a bum ankle. Montario Hardesty will get the lion's share of the load in the meaningless matchup with the Steelers. [Update: Richardson has now been declared out.]

Keep an eye on Matt Forte's playing status, as he is likely to be a game-time decision. With no Michael Bush to fall back upon, the Bears certainly need their starter in a must-win game. But his latest ankle injury may prove too painful to overcome so quickly.  [Update: Forte has been upgraded to probable.]

After suffering a setback in practice, Jonathan Stewart (ankle) is not expected to be ready for the Panthers' finale. That leaves the workload in DeAngelo Williams' unsteady hands again. I reminded you last week that he couldn't be trusted. Did you listen?
 
A hip injury has kept Mike Wallace off the practice field all week, and it could force him out of Sunday's contest. That means that we've likely seen the last of the up-and-down speedster in a Steelers uniform.

Those who've been holding onto Rob Gronkowski (arm, hip) in hopes that he would be available for the last game or two of the regular season are about to be very disappointed. He's been a limited participant in practice for the past week, but there's little indication he will be activated prior to the playoffs.

More Saturday updates:

Both Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy will miss Week 17 for the Browns, leaving the QB role in the hands of the great Thaddeus Lewis.  With Trent Richardson also missing in action, could there be a better defensive play than the Steelers on Sunday?

Pierre Thomas is out for Sunday's matchup, but Chris Ivory will be back in the Saints' RB rotation along with Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram.

Why MJD waited until now to undergo foot surgery on his ankle is beyond me.  But he did.

The 49ers put Mario Manningham on IR.  He's done.

Mike Nugent has also gone to IR.  Josh Brown will close out the season as the Bengals' kicker.

Friday, December 28, 2012

Week 17 Starters & Benchwarmers


Wondering whether or not to start Marshawn Lynch and Dez Bryant, or to bench Brian Hoyer and Austin Pettis?  The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 17 of the 2012 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks vs. Rams.  He’s playing at home, where he is nearly flawless.  He’s led his team to 150 points over the last three games.  And he’s gunning for the NFC West title against a so-so Rams defense.  Yeah, I’d say Wilson is worth a start.

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets at Bills.  You may want to bench him if only to keep from having to watch this dreadful game.  But Greene is likely to be the lone bright spot for the moribund Jets offense, which will once again be guided by Mark Sanchez.  Don’t be surprised to see Greene punch in a couple of goal-line scores against the NFL’s softest run defense.

Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins at Patriots.  Coming off his second-best fantasy performance of the season, Bush should remain in your lineup as he auditions for a new contract.  The Patriots are playing for a bye, but their defense is still struggling.  Bush will get plenty of touches to reinforce his value to the Dolphins, and other RB-challenged teams.

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens at Bengals.  Smith was clearly feeling no ill effects from his concussion while torching the Giants last week.  Though he faces a more formidable foe on Sunday, the Bengals could rest their starters early since their postseason positioning is firm.  Fellow wideout Anquan Boldin could also be limited with a bruised shoulder.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles at Giants.  Maclin barely skipped a beat when Nick Foles took the reins, and he should have little trouble reestablishing his rapport with Michael Vick.  Provided he is able to suit up – he tweaked his knee in practice earlier this week -- Maclin will be the most familiar face on the field to his new/old quarterback.  Meanwhile, New York’s secondary is very generous to opposing receivers.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III; RBs LeSean McCoy, Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Chris Johnson, Knowshon Moreno, Alfred Morris, Frank Gore; WRs Mike Williams, Pierre Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Miles Austin, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Steve Smith, Kenny Britt, Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Justin Blackmon.

Roll ‘em back

Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers vs. Browns.  In a mild surprise, Rashard Mendenhall emerged from his coach’s doghouse to be the Steelers’ most productive rusher in Week 16.  With nothing but pride at stake, a committee backfield holds little upside for any of Pittsburgh’s tailbacks.

Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals at 49ers.  After his epic disaster in Week 16 (3 rushing yards, fumble, benching), Wells should be nowhere near your lineup against a 49ers squad aiming for a division crown.  The oft-injured RB has already mentally checked out for the season, and he has started talking about playing elsewhere in 2013. 

Roddy White, WR, Falcons vs. Buccaneers.  Atlanta is Exhibit A for why fantasy titles should never be contested in Week 17.  With nothing to play for, Matt Ryan and his fellow starters could see just a few token series.  While the Bucs’ secondary is certainly capable of allowing big strikes to this prolific attack early on, that’s an awfully risky proposition for owners of the Falcons’ fantasy stars.  Especially those of White, who is nursing a knee injury.

Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers at Vikings.  Nelson (hamstring) is expected to return to the Packers’ lineup this weekend, but think twice before slotting him back in yours.  With Greg Jennings near 100 percent, Green Bay’s receiving corps is deep enough to allow the team to ease Nelson back slowly.  They’ll need him at full strength for their postseason run.

Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders at Chargers.  Matt Leinart is expected to start at QB for Oakland.  What more do you need to know to convince you that all Raider wideouts should be off the table?

More thumbs down: QBs Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Sam Bradford; RBs Michael Turner, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Mikel Leshoure, Vick Ballard, Ryan Grant, Rashard Mendenhall; WRs Hakeem Nicks, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Kerley, Sidney Rice.

TAKING A FLIER

Michael Vick, QB, Eagles at Giants.  What better way for Vick to convince the league that he deserves another starting gig next season than by showcasing his running and passing skills against his division rivals?  He and Andy Reid have all the motivation they need to excel in this contest, and it helps that the Giants’ defense has been even worse than normal lately.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…plays next year’s title game in Week 17.  If that’s what you’re doing this weekend, you’ll see (again) that too many key players are either resting or completely checked out.  Most self-respecting fantasy leagues wrap up in Week 16 while all their players are still going full tilt.  The regular season finale is a better time for a consolation game or a “Free for All Bowl” – one last league-wide contest where the top overall scorer wins a small share of the pot.