Happy Thanksgiving, Fools!

Good morning, Fools, from all of us at the Fantasy Fools.  (That would be me, myself and I.)

Here's hoping you're with loved ones, enjoying great food, great company and great fantasy success with your Thanksgiving Day starters.

Let's take a quick look at the landscape for today's games...

We already know the inactives for the early game: Boneheaded Titus Young and the Texans' Ben Tate.    I don't think either absence should affect your lineup decisions.  Wouldn't start any WR other than Megatron against the Texans, and Justin Forsett (Arian Foster's backup) is only a desperation play.

I really like the Cowboys' passing attack today against the bad Redskins secondary.  Dez and Miles should both produce well.  Kevin Ogletree will not play.  Neither will DeMarco Murray, and Fragile Felix Jones is banged up and will be a game-time decision.  Lance Dunbar could start, but I wouldn't rely on any Cowboys RBs today.  

I wouldn't start Pierre Garcon either, in a tough matchup and clearly not back to full strength (based on last week's performance).

You know Gronk is out for tonight's game.  Aaron Hernandez is the biggest question mark, but most signs point to him suiting up.  Brandon Lloyd is questionable, but will probably play.  Don't like him today, though.  Wes Welker is a must-start.  Don't count on Edelman to repeat last week's heroics.

I'm thankful I don't own any Jets.

In other news, we now know Colin Kaepernick will get another start for the 49ers over the concussed Alex Smith; this time against the lowly Saints defense.  At this stage of the season, I'd hate to have to start such a green QB; but you can't argue with his favorable matchup.  You also have to feel pretty good about Michael Crabtree's and Vernon Davis' chances on Sunday, after Kaepernick's solid start last weekend.

Jay Cutler could be back for the Bears, which is especially good news for Brandon Marshall's owners.

If you were toying with dropping Big Ben due to his very pessimistic updates, don't do it.  Word now is that he could return sooner than expected.  Maybe even by Week 13.  

It sounds like Michael Vick has a better chance to return from his concussion this weekend than LeSean McCoy.  Bryce Brown will be interesting to watch, but wouldn't start him unless your options are really limited.  Philly's offense is a mess.

If you're counting on LaRod Stephens-Howling this week -- and I sure hope you're not -- be advised that Beanie Wells is expected to return to his starting job.  LSH will revert back to a 3rd-down role, meaning neither RB is a great start this week against the Rams.

Looks like Darren Sproles will be back to play against the 49ers.  In a pass-happy offense like the Saints', a 3- or 4-headed backfield sure makes it hard to like anyone.  I suppose a fully healthy Sproles would be the most viable candidate, but I still don't like his chances in this tough matchup.

Danny Amendola is in a walking boot, thanks to the foot injury he sustained last weekend.  His status is in question heading into Sunday's late games.  Plan accordingly.

Denarius Moore is dealing with a bum hammy, but he should play.  I'm benching him in two leagues this week, due to the injury, the tough matchup, and his lackluster performance in Week 11.

Don't expect to see Percy Harvin back this weekend.

It sounds like Greg Jennings is nearing a return, finally.  Don't expect him back this weekend, but Week 13 is a real possibility.  It would be great to let him get a game under his belt before trusting him in the fantasy postseason.

Laurent Robinson has been placed on IR due to multiple concussions.  

Again, I hope you have a joyous Thanksgiving.  Don't ignore your loved ones too much while screaming at the TV...  As usual, I'll be tweeting inactives and other late-breaking news throughout the day (www.twitter.com/ladd_biro). 

Week 12 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Doug Martin and Andre Johnson, or to bench Ryan Lindley and Michael Jenkins?  The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 12 of the 2012 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys vs. Redskins.  Romo has a history of peaking early, and November is his best month, by far.  The NFL’s 30^th-ranked pass defense should help him keep that streak alive on Thanksgiving, as will Dez Bryant, who finally seems to be in sync with his quarterback.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills at Colts. There’s a decent chance Fred Jackson (concussion) will return to the lineup on Sunday, most likely in a backup, limited-carry role.  Spiller is Buffalo’s most dangerous weapon, and he’ll be deployed extensively against a Colts’ run defense that has surrendered the second-most TDs to opposing rushers. 

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals vs. Raiders.  Look for the Law Firm to build off his first 100-yard game of the season in a matchup with Oakland’s league-worst run defense.  With TDs in two of his last three outings, Green-Ellis is also a good bet for another end-zone encore.

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens at Chargers.  The game-breaking speedster’s worst game of the season fittingly came against the NFL’s stingiest pass defense.  In San Diego, the coverage gets much softer, and Smith will undoubtedly be a huge part of the game plan.  Don’t miss out on his rebound performance.

Danario Alexander, WR, Chargers vs. Ravens.  We haven’t seen a QB-WR tandem develop such quick chemistry since Romo and Laurent Robinson last season.  Alexander has been targeted 18 times over the last two games, amassing 230 yards and 3 TDs along the way.  Trust him against the mediocre Baltimore secondary.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Josh Freeman, Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan; RBs Frank Gore, Marcel Reece, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson; WRs Dez Bryant, Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, Stevie Johnson, Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree, Miles Austin, Nate Washington, Justin Blackmon, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Marques Colston, Hakeem Nicks.

Roll ‘em back

Matt Stafford, QB, Lions vs. Texans.  Until Chad Henne embarrassed Houston’s secondary in Week 11, this was a matchup to be avoided.  And while Calvin Johnson had a huge day last week, Stafford’s stat line was nothing special.  Look for the Texans to remind the nation why they are bona fide Super Bowl contenders.

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets vs. Patriots.  Not only has Bilal Powell staked his claim to a substantial share of the carries, including those at the goal line, but Joe McKnight has also been declared a card-carrying member of the three-man rotation.  In a game where the Jets could be forced to abandon the run early, Greene’s opportunities will be very limited.

Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins vs. Seahawks.  Miami has plummeted from contender to pretender in rapid fashion, and Bush has led the free fall.  It’s not that Daniel Thomas is playing better; it’s that the entire offense is stuck in a rut.  Seattle’s stingy run defense won’t help. 

Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers at Browns. Strike one: He’ll be attempting to shag passes from Charlie Batch, Pittsburgh’s third-string quarterback.  Strike two: Wallace accumulated a whopping 26 yards with the second-stringer.  Strike three: If shutdown corner Joe Haden (oblique) plays, it’s game over.

DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, WRs, Eagles vs. Panthers.  With Nick Foles under center, this duo combined for – wait for it – FIVE receiving yards against the inept Redskins pass defense.  Now facing a much more formidable opponent, you simply can’t risk any Eagles receiver in your lineup.

More thumbs down: QBs Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez, Jason Campbell, Chad Henne, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford, Nick Foles; RBs Felix Jones, James Starks, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram, Michael Turner, Beanie Wells, Fred Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart; WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Jeremy Kerley, Dwayne Bowe, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Josh Gordon, Golden Tate.

TAKING A FLIER

Jalen Parmele, RB, Jaguars vs. Titans.  I know, I know.  I’m recommending a Jag?  Only if you’re really hurting at RB.  Parmele has stolen the starting job from Rashad Jennings, and the versatile tailback should get plenty of touches against the awful Titans defense.  It helps that Jacksonville seems to have found its passing game.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…lets the tryptophan take over and cause you to ignore the Thanksgiving Day inactive reports.  Several players – including Aaron Hernandez, Pierre Garcon and Felix Jones – are shaping up to be game-time decisions.  You won’t be very thankful if you’re left with a goose egg in your starting lineup.

Week 11 Heroes & Zeros

This was a great week to start…

QBs

Matt Schaub, Texans – Had a monster game, including 527 yards and 5 TDs.  Who cares about the 2 INTs?

Chad Henne, Jaguars – Came off the bench to have a career day, with 4 TD passes and 354 yards.

Robert Griffin, Jr., Redskins – Passed for 200 yards and 4 TDs, and ran for 84 more yards.

Tom Brady, Patriots – His 331-yard passing day included a trio of TDs.

Peyton Manning, Broncos – Notched 3 TDs and 270 passing yards, plus a TD.

Drew Brees, Saints – Just another workmanlike day, with 219 yards and 3 TDs, without a turnover.

RBs

Marcel Reece, Raiders – Rumbled for 103 yards and caught 4 passes for 90 more yards.

WRs

Andre Johnson, Texans – Pulled down 14 receptions for 273 yards and the winning TD. 

Justin Blackmon, Jaguars – His coming-out party included 7 catches for 236 yards and 1 TD.

Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Had a dozen catches for 145 yards and 1 TD.

Calvin Johnson, Lions – He turned 5 passes into 143 yards and a TD, but lost a fumble.

Julian Edelman, Patriots – Caught 5 passes for 58 yards and a TD, ran for 47 yards and returned a punt for another score.

T.Y. Hilton, Colts – His 6 receptions were good for 100 yards and 2 TDs.

Danario Alexander, Chargers – His 7 receptions amounted to 96 yards and a pair of TDs.

Lance Moore, Saints – Turned his only 2 catches into 53 yards and 2 TDs.

TEs

Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – His 7-reception, 137-yard, 2-TD game ended with a broken arm.

Garrett Graham, Texans – Made a name for himself with 8 receptions for 82 yards and a pair of scores.

Ben Watson, Browns – Scored twice on 4 catches for 47 yards.

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars – His 3 catches went for 40 yards and his own 2 TDs.

D/STs

Patriots – Scored on 2 INT returns and a punt return, and collected 4 turnovers and a sack.

This was a great week to play against…

QBs

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills – Just 168 passing yards without a score.

Joe Flacco, Ravens – Threw for 164 yards with no TDs.

Matt Ryan, Falcons – Passed for 301 yards, but served up 5 INTs.

 

RBs

Rashad Jennings, Jaguars – Lost a yard, and probably his starting job, on 3 carries.

Reggie Bush, Dolphins – Just 20 rushing and 15 receiving yards.

DeAngelo Williams, Panthers – Only 18 yards against the Bucs.

Chris Ivory, Saints – Just 37 yards on the ground.

WRs

Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – Posted a goose egg after leaving with a neck injury.

Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – Blanked.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles – Turned 2 receptions into 5 yards.

Torrey Smith, Ravens – Caught a 7-yarder.

Pierre Garcon, Redskins – It took him 3 catches to make those 5 yards.

Denarius Moore, Raiders – Just a 9-yard reception.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – One 11-yard catch for the day, which was 4 yards more than Andre Roberts had.

Mike Wallace, Steelers – Held to 26 yards on a pair of receptions, and fumbled one.

Mike Williams, Buccaneers – He had only 29 yards on 3 catches.

Julio Jones, Falcons – His 3 receptions turned into 33 yards.

James Jones, Packers – Also produced 33 yards, but on 2 catches.

Titus Young, Lion – Had a 24-yarder.

TEs

Antonio Gates, Chargers – Just 2 receptions for 17 yards.

Heath Miller, Steelers – His pair of catches produced 22 yards.

Tony Gonzales, Falcons – Only 33 yards on 3 catches.

Dennis Pitta, Ravens – Limited to a single 5- yard reception.

Aerial fireworks propel stars, upstarts to rare heights

It’s one thing to run into a Calvin Johnson-Andre Johnson buzz saw, as I did in one league this weekend.

But there’s something very unsettling about getting thrashed by a team featuring Andy Dalton, Marcel Reece, LaRod Stephens-Howling and Danario Alexander.  How was I to know I should bench Aaron Rodgers for Matt Schaub?   Or give Mike Wallace, Denarius Moore and Antonio Gates the day off?  Who told Torrey Smith he could have another bye week?

I love the ups and downs of fantasy football as much as the next guy, but there clearly was a glitch in the matrix in Week 11.

Houston’s Reliant Stadium was the glitch's epicenter. 

Do you know how many touchdown passes Schaub amassed in his previous two games against Jacksonville? 

Four fewer than he had on Sunday.

It’s no great shock that Andre Johnson posted a career game against the lowly Jaguars; but where does Garrett Graham get off upstaging Owen Daniels (and Arian Foster, for that matter)? 

I guess it could have been worse.  I could have faced an opponent starting Chad Henne and Justin Blackmon, as they took on the third-best pass defense in the league.

Oh wait a minute.  Not one of the 25 million-plus starting lineups on Planet Earth included that QB-WR tandem!

Week 11 also produced a fantasy bounty for owners of Julian Edelman, T.Y. Hilton, Ben Watson and Marcedes Lewis.

Raise your hand if you’re one of those owners. 

Yeah, that’s what I thought.

I can’t remember a week, especially this deep into the season, when so many no-names stole the spotlight.  Be advised: For most of them, the attention will be fleeting.

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos.  With news that Willis McGahee will be out 6-8 weeks with knee and leg injuries, Hillman vaults to the top of this week’s waiver wire wonders.  The rookie’s running style has been likened to that of Darren Sproles, but he also offers every-down upside.  With Peyton Manning at the controls, he could be a very busy man down the stretch.

Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles.  The rookie could get his first career start in Week 12 if LeSean McCoy’s concussion proves to be serious.  Brown has shown flashes in limited opportunities, but he’s unlikely to match McCoy’s production in the Eagles’ struggling offense.  Don’t count on Brown for more than a one-week flex role.

James Starks, RB, Packers.  Here we go again.  Alex Green couldn’t get the job done, and Cedric Benson isn’t ready to return.  Starks is healthy again and has been the Packers’ primary ball carrier for two consecutive games.  Hey, a starting RB is a starting RB.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars.  As we head toward the postseason, our benches should be stocked with our top RBs’ handcuffs and receivers with upside.  Jacksonville’s prized rookie fits that mold, after his stirring coming-out party.  Though Blackmon will struggle to deliver consistent production in this offense, you have to be impressed with a 236-yard, one-TD outing against the mighty Texans.  Next up: Tennessee.

Don’t be fooled

Chad Henne, QB, Jaguars.  Surely you must be joking.

Bilal Powell, RB, Jets.  The second-year rusher just scored his first two career touchdowns, but he’s unlikely to supplant Shonn Greene as the Jets’ starter.  Rather, he may have succeeded in creating a committee situation, in which case Greene’s value takes yet another hit.  There’s not enough fantasy production in that backfield to split between two players.

Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots. Even with Rob Gronkowski out for several weeks and Aaron Hernandez still hobbling on a bum ankle, Edelman’s role in the Patriots’ offense is too sketchy to rely upon.  Take away the punt return score, and the veteran’s 58-yard, one-touchdown afternoon was still his best fantasy production since 2009.

Garrett Graham, TE, Texans.  I suppose if Matt Schaub has another five-touchdown outing, we might notice Graham again.  But, more likely, he’ll return to the shadows until Owen Daniels suffers another injury.

Sunday morning updates -- Week 11

Good morning, Fools.  Is it just me, or is it getting a little chillier out there?

Here's what's up around the NFL as we make our last-minute starting lineup decisions...

Alex Smith hasn't yet been cleared to play tomorrow night, but he most likely will be.  He's the only one of the concussed QBs from Week 10 (which also includes Jay Cutler and Michael Vick) with a chance to play this week.

Big Ben, as you know, is out.  Probably for quite a while.  Byron Leftwich takes his place, and faces a soft Ravens pass defense.  Don't start him, but don't bench Mike Wallace or Heath Miller either.  Antonio Brown (ankle) is not expected back until Week 13, in the best-case scenario.

Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray are out again.  Marcel Reece and Felix Jones are their proxies.

We won't know whether Ryan Mathews is suiting up until the early games have begun, so better make sure you've got another option to fall back on if you're hoping to play him.  As mentioned here earlier, I don't like his chances at less-than-100% against the Broncos.

We'll know shortly if Julio Jones (ankle) is a go or not.  I'm guessing he'll give it a go.

Plug Jordy Nelson back in your lineup if you own him, and hope he doesn't make another early exit.

We're expecting to see Pierre Garcon back on the field today for the first time in forever.  I wouldn't start him unless he's clearly your best option; but he should be a good bet next week barring any set-backs.

That's it for this morning.  Follow me on Twitter (www.twitter.com/ladd_biro) for all the inactives and other late-breaking news throughout the day.

Good luck, Fools!  Oh, and how 'bout them Baylor Bears?!!!  Sic 'em, Bears!

Saturday injury updates

Here are some snippets from yesterday's 4th & Long column with the Sporting News Fantasy Source.

Scuttlebutt out of Dallas is that DeMarco Murray will most likely sit out through the Thanksgiving Day game in anticipation of going full-speed in Week 13. Looks like more of the Felix Jones Show, which has its moments. But, like most of today's movies, all the good parts can be seen in a 30-second clip.

Don't be surprised if Ryan Mathews sits out the Broncos game with a neck injury. Actually, how could any Mathews owner be surprised if he misses time? This is his, and your, lot in life. [UPDATE 11/17: Mathews returned to practice yesterday and is now questionable to play.  I don't like his chances at less-than-100% against Denver's run defense.]

Heads up, Julio Jones owners. The ankle he tweaked last week is still bothering him, and he is shaping up as a game-time decision.

Jeremy Maclin is back at practice after sitting out earlier with a back issue. It's hard to say how he'll perform with rookie Nick Foles at QB, but you couldn't ask for a better matchup than the Redskins' league-worst pass defense.

Wes Welker (ankle), Brandon Lloyd (knee) and Rob Gronkowski (hip) have all been limited in practice this week, but none of the above is expected to miss the favorable matchup with the Colts. 

When it comes to Aaron Hernandez's balky ankle, we've learned that we'd better pay attention up to the last minute. Despite the optimism we hear during the week -- and it's happening again -- it means nothing until we see the inactive reports. If he's playing, Hernandez should be in your lineup. [UPDATE 11/17: The good vibes on Hernandez are fading again, and he now looks unlikely to suit up this week.]

Other Saturday updates:

Darren McFadden is out for Week 11.  Look for more positive returns from Marcel Reece.

Ben Tate has been ruled out.  Justin Forsett will continue to backup Arian Foster.

Jordy Nelson is expected to return, and he has a tasty matchup with the porous Lions secondary on Sunday.

Week 11 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Aaron Rodgers and Arian Foster, or to bench Blaine Gabbert and Robert Meachem? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 11 of the 2012 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Carson Palmer, QB, Raiders vs. Saints.  New Orleans’ defense is tossing out fantasy points like Mardi Gras beads, and Palmer has been blazing hot over his last three games.  Outside of the elites, Palmer is as close as anyone to a sure thing for at least 300 yards and 2 TDs.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers vs. Ravens.  He is listed as probable and is expected to start in Sunday’s showdown with the Ravens, who have given up more fantasy points to opposing runners than every team not named the Saints.  Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman will get their carries, too; but the steady Mendenhall should be leaned on heavily with a backup QB at the controls.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams vs. Jets.  Admittedly, Jackson’s strong showing against the 49ers last week was a bit of a stunner.  Though he’s no sure thing – especially with Daryl Richardson sharing the load – you have to like Jackson’s chances against New York’s 30^th-ranked run defense.

Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders vs. Saints.  The Saints have surrendered more than 100 yards to each of the last six RBs they’ve faced.  With Darren McFadden out again and Taiwan Jones relegated to spot duty, Reece has a great chance to soar, especially in PPR formats.

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers vs. Buccaneers.  On the heels of his worst performance since late 2011, Smith’s owners are justifiably concerned with their once-elite receiver’s disappointing season.  But redemption awaits against the sieve-like Bucs defense, which is as solid against the run as it is weak against the pass.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Josh Freeman, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, Robert Griffin III; RBs Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley; WRs Danny Amendola, Jordy Nelson, Jeremy Maclin, Denarius Moore, Reggie Wayne, Lance Moore, Randall Cobb.

Roll ‘em back

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens at Steelers.  Coming off his first multi-TD game since Week 4, it’s too bad Flacco now must head back to your bench.  But against the NFL’s stingiest pass defense, he simply can’t be trusted.

Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars at Texans.  It’s really this simple: Don’t start any Jaguar whose initials aren’t MJD for the rest of the season.  Jennings has been a poor surrogate for Maurice Jones-Drew since assuming the injured starter’s role, and he is only worth keeping on rosters in the deepest of leagues.  If you need more ammo, Houston hasn’t allowed a rushing score all season.

Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions vs. Packers.  Aside from his Week 9 outburst against the Jaguars, Leshoure has been fairly pedestrian as the Lions’ starter.  Coming off its bye, Green Bay’s above-average run defense will be rested and ready. Detroit’s production will come through the air.

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers vs. Bears.  Even though Alex Smith (concussion) is expected to start, Crabtree is a bad option against the stout Chicago secondary.  Though he has scored three of his four TDs this year over the past two games, those highlights came against mediocre opposing secondaries.  The Bears don’t fit that profile.

Josh Gordon, WR, Browns at Cowboys. The rookie has slid quite a ways from his midseason highs, and his rookie quarterback is likewise struggling mightily.  On Sunday, the pair faces arguably the most-improved secondary in the league.  Keep Gordon out of sight.

More thumbs down: QBs Matt Schaub, Nick Foles, Byron Leftwich, Alex Smith, Jason Campbell; RBs DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Ryan Mathews, Isaac Redman, Shonn Greene, Alex Green; WRs Emmanuel Sanders, Dez Bryant, Malcom Floyd, Dwayne Bowe, Laurent Robinson, Cecil Shorts.

TAKING A FLIER

Chris Ivory, RB, Saints at Raiders.  Even if Darren Sproles (hand) returns, Ivory is bound to get plenty of touches against the pathetic Oakland run defense.  Sure, this backfield is a three- or four-headed monster, but Ivory has flashed enough game-breaking prowess to ensure a significant role in this high-scoring offense.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…lets Pierre Garcon remain a free agent any longer.  If you’re in need of WR help down the stretch, or can easily make room on your bench for a high-upside player, Garcon is available in nearly half of all leagues.  He’s close to returning from his foot injury, and he should immediately reclaim his status as Robert Griffin III’s go-to receiver.