Monday, November 27, 2017

I could’ve beaten you with my bench!

Fantasy points are a terrible thing to waste.

Yet we all do it. It can be the bane of our fantasy existence one week, then the source of our self-declared brilliance the next.

When those wasted bench points would have made the difference between winning and losing, Mondays can feel like you’re a Chicago receiver: constantly running yet empty-handed.

Yes, I had Joe Mixon on my bench. Why wouldn’t I? He was coming off a lousy Week 11 outing, the Bengals’ running game is almost historically bad and he was facing a stingy Browns run defense.

I sat Davante Adams as well, because he was facing the Steelers’ secondary and surely Brett Hundley was going to melt under the Sunday night lights.

I picked the wrong week to start Cam Newton. Again.

I left Marshawn Lynch’s best game of the season on my bench.

Heck, I gave up on Jamison Crowder weeks ago.

I don’t own Robby Anderson, but I probably would have joined the three-quarters of his owners who sat him on Sunday. Ditto for Philip Rivers.

Four out of five Jamaal Williams owners are kicking themselves today.

Over the course of this season, I’ve left anywhere from zero to 67 excess points on my bench on any given weekend. That “perfect” weekend reminded me why I am a certified fantasy guru. Would you like to see my awards?

And the bad weeks? Well, I did name my blog “Fantasy Fools.” I feel like that should be warning enough.

I’d love to blame ill-timed injuries for my unforced errors. But more often than not, it’s the unexpected Philip Rivers moments, combined with no-show performances by my regular starters.

Yeah, it was that kind of weekend.

WAIVER WIRE PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it’s best to start with a great draft. But filling gaps in your roster with the occasional waiver-wire acquisition can also pay big dividends. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Rex Burkhead, RB, Patriots. PPR leaguers have already taken note of Burkhead, thanks to his relatively steady role in the Patriots’ passing game. But Sunday’s outburst against the Dolphins showcased his running skills as well, and marked his second double-digit-carry workload over the last three weeks. Of course, investing in New England’s RB corps can be like volunteering for a root canal, so be prepared to be left with nothing but pain in any given week.

Josh Doctson, WR, Redskins. The rookie is exactly the kind of player to be stashing for a deep playoff run. He’s not quite ready for fantasy primetime, but he appears to be on the verge of a breakout. Kirk Cousins needs a more reliable wideout option, and while Crowder stole the show on Thanksgiving, Doctson could bring more glad tidings in December.

Don’t be fooled

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Buccaneers. Doug Martin had already worked his way onto most of his owners’ benches due to his poor play, and now a concussion could sideline him for a week or more. That would place Tampa Bay’s backfield back in Rodgers’ hands. He was just so-so early this season when Martin was suspended, and Rodgers’ ceiling will be limited further if Peyton Barber continues his goal-line vulturing act.


Josh Gordon, WR, Browns. He’s eligible for activation in Week 13, but having not played since 2014 and with a rookie QB at the controls, Gordon is simply not worth the risk. He once was spectacular, but he squandered his gifts. Perhaps next year, if he can keep his nose clean in the interim.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Sunday morning observations -- Week 12

Good morning, Fools. I'm running a little behind today as I was getting two of my kids back off to college after the Thanksgiving break. Sniff...

Let's see what's up around the NFL as we set our starting lineups for today's matchups.

Jay Cutler will not suit up today as he continues to recover from a concussion, which is good news for those hoping for big things from Kenny Stills. Matt Moore was awful in his last start, but he's been a boon for Stills when he's come in off the bench. The Pats' secondary can be exploited, but they can also show up and shut down opposing offenses. Like Miami's. I'm not optimistic about any Dolphin not named Jarvis Landry.

In that same game, I like Danny Amendola (who is active) to join Cooks and Gronk in a big game. Marty B and Chris Hogan will sit this one out, however.

Banking on a rebound game from Jared Goff today? There's reason to be optimistic, as two of the Saints' best corners (Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley) are inactive. On the negative side, Robert Woods is out. Goff has a good opportunity to shine at home in a not-so-tough matchup with the depleted New Orleans secondary.

Get Tevin Coleman in your starting backfield, as Devonta Freeman will miss another game as he recovers from his concussion.

Matt Forte is active, meaning Bilal Powell's chances are even slimmer in a bad matchup with Carolina.

Apparently I'm the only one who thinks J.D. McKissic has the potential to be a breakout RB. I love the violent way he runs (similar to Beast Mode back in his prime) and as a converted WR, he is a big contributor in the passing game. Don't be surprised if he takes on a big workload today against the 49ers and stakes his claim to the starting job going forward. If you have the flexibility, grab him now as he could be a highly coveted waiver wire pickup this week.

In somewhat of a surprise, Rishard Matthews is inactive for the Titans. Could be a busy day for rookie Corey Davis.

Kelvin Benjamin didn't travel with the Bills, but Jordan Matthews and Charles Clay will play (with Tyrod Taylor back as the starting QB).

Will Fuller has already been ruled out for MNF, so Bruce Ellington will be the No. 2 WR to DeAndre Hopkins. Not that I recommend starting Ellington for any but the most desperate of owners.

It's not official yet, but Emmanuel Sanders is expected to play later this afternoon. That said, I'm very concerned about his QB situation, even in a favorable matchup.

John Brown is out, but Fitz is the only startable WR for the Cards today.

Those waiting on Jordan Reed to return must wait a little longer. And there's no guarantee he'll be back next week, either.

Greg Olsen, on the other hand, is back and is expected to get about half his normal snaps against the Jets. That should be enough to produce better than most other TEs.

Jimmy Graham's arrow is also pointing up, so count on him being active and exploiting the 49ers defense this afternoon.

That's it for today. I'll be tweeting the inactives next. Good luck today, Fools!

Friday, November 24, 2017

Week 12 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Mark Ingram and A.J. Green, or to bench Tom Savage and Eddie Lacy? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 12 of the 2017 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons vs. Buccaneers. Ryan – and his trusty sidekick, Julio Jones – have been disappointing their owners most of the season. But nothing says “rebound” quite like the Bucs defense, which just got torched by Matt Moore. Coughing up big plays is apparently part of the Bucs’ weekly game plan, so look for the Ryan-Jones connection to find its groove on Sunday.

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns at Bengals. Crowell was on a nice roll before he ran into the Jacksonville buzzsaw last weekend. He has an excellent chance to return to his owners’ good graces against the eminently exploitable Cincinnati rush defense that has recently been overrun by some of the weakest running games in the NFL.

Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons vs. Buccaneers. It now appears that Devonta Freeman won’t clear the concussion protocol in time for Sunday’s matchup with the improved-but-still-plenty-vulnerable Bucs run defense. Coleman can exploit this unit as both a runner and receiver, and he’s a good bet for at least one scoring play in this divisional showdown.

Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots vs. Dolphins. Assuming Tom Brady’s Achilles issue isn’t serious, there will be plenty of targets to go around for each of his starting receivers to get their fill from the fantasy trough. Miami’s pass defense was ripped apart by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, and Amendola is back to making plays as understudy to Chris Hogan and Julian Edelman.

Mike Wallace, WR, Ravens vs. Texans. Our enthusiasm for Wallace’s two-game scoring stretch is tempered by his previous two-game duds (4 receptions for 39 yards, combined). The Monday nighter offers great potential, however, as Houston’s sieve-like secondary comes to town. Don’t be surprised if Wallace piles up solid yardage, including a long TD reception.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz; RBs Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, Dion Lewis, Christian McCaffrey; WRs Mohammed Sanu, T.Y. Hilton, Tyreek Hill, Jarvis Landry, Rishard Matthews, Alshon Jeffery.

Roll ‘em back

Jared Goff, QB, Rams vs. Saints. The second-year passer cooled off last week in Minnesota, and now he’ll face the solid Saints secondary without go-to receiver Robert Woods (shoulder). The matchup isn’t as tough with elite CB Marshon Lattimore likely sidelined, but it’s hard to expect big production from Goff with only Cooper Kupp and boom-or-bust wideout Sammy Watkins at his disposal.

Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers at Falcons. Week after week, Martin fails to take advantage of the high volume of carries he receives. He’s a non-factor in the passing game, and with Fitzpatrick at the controls, Atlanta’s so-so run defense can easily stack the line to keep Martin from finding daylight.

Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers vs. Seahawks. Hyde racked up 143 combined scrimmage yards the last time these teams met. But the Seahawks’ run defense has tightened up significantly since that Week 2 contest, and Matt Breida wasn’t competing for touches like he is now. With C.J. Beathard under center, you can expect Seattle to stack the line and limit Hyde’s upside.

Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins at Patriots. New England’s pass defense is finding its groove after a horrid start. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler appears to be on track to clear the concussion protocol and return to the starting lineup. Both developments are bad news for those counting on another big outing from Stills, whose moments in the spotlight are generally shared with Matt Moore. [UPDATE: Cutler is out, Moore in. Stills is now worthy of a starting gig depending on your other options.]

Davante Adams, WR, Packers at Steelers. For all his faults, Brett Hundley has managed to keep Adams fantasy relevant, especially in PPR leagues. But it seems like wishful thinking to expect the connection to prosper on the road against the elite Pittsburgh secondary. Avoid all Packers in this one.

More thumbs down: QBs Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton, Jay Cutler; RBs Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Rawls, C.J. Anderson, LeGarrette Blount, Bilal Powell, Alex Collins, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Derrick Henry, Jamaal Williams, Kenyan Drake; WRs Jordy Nelson, Kelvin Benjamin, DeVante Parker, Marqise Lee, Nelson Agholor, Will Fuller, Ted Ginn, John Brown, Dontrelle Inman, Corey Coleman.

TAKING A FLIER

J.D. McKissic, RB, Seahawks at 49ers. Seattle’s offensive line takes a lot of heat, but perhaps the team’s rushing woes should be blamed on its mediocre starting RB corps (see Rawls and Lacy). Russell Wilson can run wild, Mike Davis produced last week in his first start and McKissic has dazzled as the passing-down back when given the opportunity. If Davis sits out Sunday’s primo matchup with his groin injury, as expected, the rookie will likely be spotlighted. McKissic is a free agent in most formats, so PPR leaguers especially should grab him now before the receiver-turned-RB makes his mark.


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DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…benches Larry Fitzgerald. Ever. Sure, the Jaguars are bringing the league’s stingiest defense to town, but the future Hall of Famer is simply too good to sit in any matchup. Fitz continues to play at an elite level, and his target volume pays dividends regardless of which spare QB is under center.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Week 11 Heroes & Zeros

This was a great week to play…

QBs
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – Passed for 299 yards and 4 TDs, without a turnover.
Tom Brady, Patriots – Torched the Raiders with 339 yards and 3 TDs through the air.
Kirk Cousins, Redskins – Threw for 322 yards and 3 TDs, without a blemish.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks – Passed for 258 yards, rushed for 86 and scored 3 times, but lost 2 turnovers.

RBs
LeSean McCoy, Bills – Scored while rushing for 114 yards and on a 12-yard reception.
Latavius Murray, Vikings – Scored twice while rushing for 95 yards.
D’Onta Foreman, Texans – Raced for 65 yards and 2 TDs, and caught 3 passes for 15 yards, before blowing out his Achilles.
Mark Ingram, Saints – Rushed for 134 yards and a TD and added 3 passes for 21 yards.

WRs
Antonio Brown, Steelers – Feasted on the Titans with 10 receptions for 144 yards and a TD trifecta.
Keenan Allen, Chargers – Hauled in a dozen passes for 159 yards and 2 TDs.
Brandin Cooks, Patriots – Took 6 passes for 149 yards and a TD.
Adam Thielen, Vikings – Reeled in 6 passes for 123 yards and a TD.
Kenny Stills, Dolphins – Caught 7 passes for 180 yards and a TD.

TEs
Ricky Seals-Jones, Cardinals – Came out of nowhere to catch 3 passes for 54 yards and 2 TDs.

D/STs
Chargers – Scored TDs on an INT return and a fumble return, and added 1 sack, 5 INTs and a fumble.
Ravens – Collected 6 sacks, 3 INTs and 2 fumbles while shutting out the Packers.
Jaguars – Amassed 5 sacks, 2 INTs, 3 fumbles and a TD on a fumble recovery while holding the Browns to 7 points.
Eagles – Notched 4 sacks, 3 INTs, a fumble and scored on the fumble return while holding Dallas to 3 FGs.


This was a great week to play against…

QBs
Dak Prescott, Cowboys – Had his worst game as a pro, coughing up 3 INTs and a fumble while passing for 145 yards, running for 10 yards and failing to score.
Alex Smith, Chiefs – Squandered a good matchup with 230 passing yards, no TDs and 2 INTs, plus 27 rushing yards.
Eli Manning, Giants – Just 205 passing yards without a score (or turnover).
Jared Goff, Rams – Came back down to earth, with just 225 yards and no scores.
Brett Hundley, Packers – Tossed 3 INTs, fumbled once and didn’t score while passing for 239 yards and running for 19 more.
Jay Cutler, Dolphins – Left with a concussion, but not before throwing 3 picks, 1 TD and just 83 yards.

RBs
Adrian Peterson, Cardinals – Ran for 26 yards and caught a 13-yard pass.
Isaiah Crowell, Browns – Only 18 yards on the ground, and no catches.
Kenyan Drake, Dolphins – Limited to 14 combined yards.
Theo Riddick, Lions – Just 35 rushing and 4 receiving yards.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers – Held to 38 rushing and 6 receiving yards.

WRs
Nelson Agholor, Eagles – Lost 2 yards on his only catch.
Tyrell Williams, Chargers – Settled for an 11-yard catch.
Willie Snead, Saints – Still not contributing, with just a 12-yard reception.
Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos – Just 15 yards on 2 catches.
Kelvin Benjamin, Bills – Caught a 20-yarder before leaving injured.
John Brown, Cardinals – Caught 3 passes for 18 yards.
Travis Benjamin, Chargers – Stuck with a 21 yarder.
Jordy Nelson, Packers – A non-factor again, with just 24 yards in 2 catches.
DeVante Parker, Dolphins – Settled for 26 yards on 4 receptions.
Stefon Diggs, Vikings – Only 32 yards on 4 catches.
Golden Tate, Lions – He took 3 balls 32 yards.
Jeremy Maclin, Ravens – Held to 34 yards on 4 receptions.
Sammy Watkins, Rams – Limited to 3 grabs for 36 yards.

TEs
Jason Witten, Cowboys – Caught a 7-yard pass on Sunday night.
Austin Hooper, Falcons – Lost a yard on his 2 receptions.
Evan Engram, Giants – He had a 9 yarder on the day.
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers – Caught a 12 yarder.
Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – Had a quiet day in Mexico, catching 3 passes for 36 yards.

Ks

Greg Zuerlein, Rams – Just 1 XP for one of fantasy’s best.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Week 11 column: When hot hands go cold

The winds of change are blowing … and fantasy fortunes are rising and falling in turn.

Just a month ago, it seemed that those of us without a heavy investment in the Chiefs’ offense were destined to play for second place. Alex Smith was the top fantasy passer in the land. Kareem Hunt was on his way to shattering every rookie record in the books. And Tyreek Hill was scoring at will.

Not so much anymore. Smith has reverted to his perennial pedestrian ways, Hunt hasn’t sniffed the end zone since Week 3 and Hill’s Sports Center moments have been coming with less frequency.

Only Travis Kelce has held up his end of the bargain. But that’s long been the case.

Of course, the Chiefs aren’t the only ones to abandon their fantasy owners as the stakes get higher.

Remember when Jordy Nelson was a thing? I realize Aaron Rodgers has left the building, but somehow Davante Adams is prospering in the Brett Hundley era. Wherefore art thou, Jordy?

The Cowboys offense is imploding without Zeke Elliott and Tyron Smith, while the incredible, shrinking Dez Bryant seems incapable of helping Dak Prescott keep the wheels from flying off.

Case Keenum has turned Adam Thielen into a fantasy stud while Stefon Diggs watches longingly from the shadows.

And will the real Raiders please step forward? Actually, will the 2016 Raiders please return?


WAIVER WIRE PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it’s best to start with a great draft. But filling gaps in your roster with the occasional waiver-wire acquisition can also pay big dividends. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Samaje Perine, RB, Redskins. Perine took advantage of his starting opportunity, rushing for 117 yards and a TD in Sunday’s tough matchup with the Saints. And now that Chris Thompson has joined Rob Kelley on the sidelines for the rest of the season, Perine’s value is magnified. Look for more passes thrown his way, too.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers. This is the point in the fantasy season when backup kickers and defenses should be ejected and skill-position depth added. Ekeler has put up impressive numbers in recent weeks and Melvin Gordon’s owners are foolish if they don’t handcuff him heading into the stretch run.

Dede Westbrook, WR, Jaguars. The rookie fell well short of the ridiculous 200-receiving-yard proclamation he made prior to his NFL debut, but the ultra-confident wideout still deserves consideration. Westbrook should be fully integrated into the Jaguars’ passing game over the next couple of weeks, and he could be a valuable contributor during the fantasy postseason.

Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins. Stills is available in most leagues because he’s the third receiver in a pass-challenged offense. Though inconsistent, he showcased his playmaking skills against the Bucs on Sunday and he has far out-performed the more-heralded, yet underachieving, DeVante Parker.

Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers. Olsen is eligible to return after Carolina’s bye from the broken foot he sustained in Week 2. With Kelvin Benjamin now wearing a Bills uniform, Olsen should instantly rekindle his bromance with Cam Newton. It’s a rare proposition to add an elite tight end this late in the season.

Don’t be fooled

Damien Williams, RB, Dolphins. Williams’ big game was more of a reflection on the dicey proposition any Miami back represents, rather than a sign of things to come. Take away his 69-yard burst on Sunday, and the rest of his carries were essentially meaningless. Neither Williams nor Kenyan Drake will carry you to a fantasy title.

Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Cardinals. There’s a reason Seals-Jones isn’t owned in any league on the planet: He’s Arizona’s third-string tight end and his three receptions on Sunday were the first three of his career. The undrafted former Aggie should be nowhere near any fantasy roster.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Sunday morning observations -- Week 11

Good morning, Fools. It's finally chilly in Dallas today, and it's another beautiful day all throughout Fantasyland.

Let's take our weekly spin through the NFL for the news we can use to make our best starting lineup decisions.

Tevin Coleman will get the start for Atlanta on Monday night as Devonta Freeman works his way through the concussion protocol. It's a rough matchup, but Coleman can produce as a runner and receiver, and he needs to be in your lineup.

Those of us hoping for big returns from Sterling Shepard today against the Chiefs need to activate their backup plan. Shepard has been suffering from migraines and will be inactive.

Maybe it's for the best, as the winds are gusting at MetLife. Could be an interesting day for both passing games.

Philip Rivers will play today. He made it through the concussion protocol and will take the field against the sputtering Bills defense.

Speaking of Buffalo, the team is hoping Charles Clay can return today from his knee injury. He's a risky play -- especially with Nathan Peterman making his first start at QB -- but he should absolutely be rostered for the stretch run. Jordan Matthews, who is expected to play after rehabbing his knee, is a similarly risky bet due to the QB situation.

Eddie Lacy is projected to return on Monday night, further muddying the waters in the Seahawks' backfield. Nobody is startable there.

There was concern about Leonard Fournette playing on a bum ankle, but he is a go after testing it in warmups. Get/keep him in your lineup, and put Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon on your bench.

Jamaal Williams will get the start for the Packers as both Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery have been ruled out. It's not a great matchup, but he should be in for a large volume, and he'll get the carries when/if the Packers make it to the goal-line.

We'll have another week of Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for the Bucs as Jameis Winston sits out another game. Mike Evans is a must-start regardless, but not DeSean Jackson.

I scooped up Danny Woodhead in both of my leagues last week, but he'll be getting his feet wet for the Ravens on my bench. Hopefully he'll look like the Woodhead of old today and he'll be flex-worthy in Week 12. If he's still sitting there in your league, grab him now!

Kenny Stills will return to the Dolphins' lineup today, but as poorly as this offense is playing, I sure wouldn't trust him.

Want to get ahead of tomorrow's waiver-wire pickup recommendations? Consider Dede Westbrook, who'll finally take the field for the Jaguars today. Regardless of how he performs in his first NFL action (and he has big expectations for himself), I'll likely recommend him as a player who could contribute down the stretch. With Allen Hurns out today, Westbrook even has flier potential in his debut.

Chris Hogan will miss the game in Mexico City, but Danny Amendola is expected to suit up. He's a decent proxy, though he'll have to fight for targets from Gronk, Cooks and Dion Lewis.

Jordan Reed is out (again). Vernon Davis is a good start in his stead.

This could be Brock Osweiler's last game as a pro (bold prediction), as Paxton Lynch will serve as his backup for the Broncos today. Trevor Siemian will be inactive. If Osweiler can't make it in Denver (the only team he's ever performed well for), who would give him yet another shot?

That's it for now. Inactives and other late-breaking news up next via Twitter. Good luck today, Fools!