Monday, September 11, 2017

Rookie runners steal the show on opening weekend

Have we just entered The Year of the Rookie Running Back?

My Magic 8 Ball says “Outlook good.”

Kareem Hunt got the ball rolling, literally, with a fumble on his first carry Thursday night. Then he proceeded to wipe the memory of Spencer Ware off the mind of every Chiefs fan with a monster three-touchdown, 246-total-yard shellacking of the Patriots.

Hunt is not just the leader in the clubhouse for Rookie of the Year honors, but the rest of the league could be playing catch-up for weeks in the Fantasy MVP race.

But Hunt isn’t the only shining star from the RB Class of 2017. Leonard Fournette had an impressive debut as well, notching his first 100-yard outing and touchdown as a pro against the usually stingy Texans defense. There’s little doubt Jacksonville’s offense will revolve around Fournette going forward, especially now that Allen Robinson has been lost for the season.

In Chicago, Tarik Cohen served notice that he has no interest in being groomed for “the future.” The first-year player dazzled, breaking out for a 46-yard run and answering the question “who is left to catch Mike Glennon’s passes?” With a game-high eight receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown, Cohen should be at the top of everyone’s waiver-wire priority list – especially in PPR leagues.

[Update 9/12] On Monday night, the torch was symbolically – yet emphatically – passed from Adrian Peterson to Dalvin Cook, who steamrolled the Saints with 127 yards on the ground. Most impressively, Cook made the Vikings’ offensive line look competent for the first time in years.

Meanwhile, as the perennially underrated Frank Gore begins to show his age, Marlon Mack’s young legs are clearly ready to carry the load for Indy. The rookie equaled Gore’s 11 combined touches on Sunday, and he reached the end zone twice (though he was robbed of one of the scores). Mack is a decent consolation prize for those who don’t land Cohen.

Though he didn’t produce big fantasy stats, it’s clear that Christian McCaffrey is going to be featured prominently as both a runner and high-volume receiver in Carolina.

Chris Carson averaged more than six yards per carry in his Seattle debut, and he may prove to be the most viable fantasy option in the Seahawks’ muddled running back committee over the coming weeks.

The Bengals have bigger problems than figuring out its three-headed backfield, so Joe Mixon’s days in the spotlight may have to wait a bit. But rest assured, it’s only a matter of time.

Indeed, the outlook looks quite good for this rookie class.


WAIVER WIRE PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it’s best to start with a great draft. But filling gaps in your roster with the occasional waiver-wire acquisition can also pay big dividends. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Tarik Cohen, RB, Bears – Run, don’t walk, to your waiver wire. Cohen doesn’t just represent handcuff value for Jordan Howard; the rookie is obviously the more dynamic back of the two. With 103 combined yards and a score, including a team-high eight receptions, Cohen looked like a backup who doesn’t intend to be a backup for long.

[Update 9/12] Kerwynn Williams, RB, Cardinals – That gasp you heard is from owners of David Johnson, who is headed to injured reserve with a dislocated wrist. Williams is the next man up in the Arizona backfield, but don't expect anything near Johnson’s production. Andre Ellington will likely absorb most of the receiving duties, limiting Williams to ground-based contributions.

Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions – The rookie was a training camp and preseason sensation, and he carried that over to his NFL debut. Golladay reeled in two scoring passes among his four receptions against a solid Cardinals secondary. Though Golden Tate remains Matt Stafford’s go-to target, the 6’4” Golladay has a chance to continue shining in the red zone.

Jesse James, TE, Steelers – He may be listed as the second tight end on Pittsburgh’s depth chart, but James was Big Ben’s No. 1 target in the red zone on Sunday. Those in need of TE reinforcement should not ignore his six-catch, 41-yard, 2-TD outing.

Don’t be fooled

Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs. If we didn’t have 11 years of history to review, Smith’s opening-night performance would merit immediate fantasy consideration. But that was just his sixth 300-yard game ever, and Thursday was his first outing with at least three passing TDs since the 2015 opener. Avoid the mediocrity.

Jermaine Kearse, WR, Jets – Wondering who’s going to catch passes in New York? The early answer is the former Seahawk, who reeled in a game-high seven receptions on nine targets (albeit for just 59 yards). But really, who wants the leading receiver on a pass-challenged team?


Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars – Just lost Robinson? Sure, Lee and Allen Hurns will see an increase in targets. But much like the Jets, this passing offense is best left to someone else.

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Sunday morning observations -- Week 1

Good morning, Fools! It's a beautiful day in Fantasyland -- unless you're in Florida, like all my siblings and many friends from my youth. It looks like they're in for a miserable day, and my prayers are with them. I hope you'll add yours.

Despite feeling even more trivial than ever, you're here to read about fantasy football, and that's what we're going to deliver. Let's take our spin around the NFL for the news we need to make our best starting lineup decisions.

It appears the Giants are going to make us wait until game time for a decision on Odell Beckham, Jr.'s playing status, but most indications are that he will NOT play. He hasn't practiced all week, but he did make the flight to Dallas. Suddenly, my last-round selection of Sterling Shepard feels a lot better. In fact, I'm starting Shepard in my flex spot tonight, whether or not OBJ plays.

Am I worried about Cam Newton? No way. I'm starting him with confidence (despite the Q tag due to his shoulder) and preparing for a feast as he faces the lowly 49ers.

I've also made the tough decision to bench Drew Brees at the Vikings in favor of Derek Carr at the Titans. I don't have a lot of confidence that that fantasy team can overcome its deficit from starting the underachieving Brandin Cooks and Travis Kelce against Kareem Hunt on Thursday night. Especially since my opponent also has David Johnson and Zeke Elliott (yikes!). But we won't put up the white flag unless and until we hear some fat lady singing!

I'm staying away from the Bengals RB committee until things shake out. I own Joe Mixon in one league, and I fully expect him to be the bell cow within a matter of weeks. Hopefully sooner. I own Jeremy Hill in another league, but he is desperation depth only, even though he's starting today.

I have a bad feeling about the Colts today with Scott Tolzien at the helm. The Rams defense is solid, though it's missing its best player (Aaron Donald) today. Give serious consideration to benching T.Y. Hilton if you have a reasonable alternative.

Chronically injured Jordan Reed (broken toe) is expected to play today against the Eagles. When he plays, you have to start him. You don't get that many opportunities to do so. I also love Jamison Crowder in this matchup.

If Sebastian Janikowski is your kicker, he shouldn't be any longer. He's been placed on IR -- in a season where he could finally get enough attempts to make him a fantasy force, after all these years -- and replaced by Giorgio Tavechhio. No, I have no clue if Giorgio is bene or not...

And, of course, you know the Dolphins and Bucs have moved their opener to Week 11. I say "of course," but a quick check of ESPN's fantasy site shows that 35% of owners still have Mike Evans in their starting lineup. Jameis Winston is starting for 25%, Jay Ajayi is in 30% of lineups and Jarvis Landry will play, but not play, for 18% of his owners. WTF???

That's it for today on the Fantasy Fools blog. I'll be tweeting (@ladd_biro) shortly with all the inactives and other late-breaking news. Be sure to follow me, and here's to a great start to the season for all Fools!

Friday, September 8, 2017

Week 1 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start David Johnson and Julio Jones, or to bench Tom Savage and Markus Wheaton? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 1 of the 2017 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Derek Carr, QB, Raiders at Titans. This should be a high-scoring affair with two of the league’s young guns matching wits and touchdown passes. Carr is fully healed from last season’s leg injury and his stellar receivers will have little trouble carving up Tennessee’s soft secondary.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers at 49ers. The rookie couldn’t have asked for a better place to make his debut. (Well, after last night, maybe second only to the Patriots.) McCaffrey is an electrifying playmaker who is expected to be featured as both a rusher and receiver in Carolina’s offense. He’ll have plenty of chances to showcase his skills on Sunday.

Bilal Powell, RB, Jets at Bills. Matt Forte is nursing a bum hammy and the Jets’ passing attack is downright sad. Powell is his team’s only viable offensive weapon, and he will be facing one of the NFL’s worst run defenses from 2016. 

Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings vs. Saints. When the perennially pitiful Saints pass defense goes on the road, home offenses prepare to feast. Even one as challenged as Minnesota’s. I’m no fan of Sam Bradford, but he’ll likely be forced to throw often to keep pace with Drew Brees, and Diggs is his most reliable target. I like Adam Thielen’s chances in the Monday nighter, too.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers at 49ers. Benjamin is coming off a strong preseason and he’ll present a significant size mismatch against San Francisco’s transitioning secondary. Cam Newton & Co. should have little problem moving the ball at will against this defense, and Benjamin will get plenty of opportunities to exploit them.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota; RBs Lamar Miller, Isaiah Crowell, Todd Gurley, Dalvin Cook, LeGarrette Blount, Danny Woodhead; WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Jeremy Maclin, Sterling Shepard, Michael Crabtree, Martavis Bryant, Eric Decker, Jamison Crowder, Rishard Matthews.

Roll ‘em back

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys vs. Giants. I believe Prescott will have an excellent sophomore campaign, but he will likely get off to a slow start. Expect Ezekiel Elliott to see a tremendous workload as Prescott plays it safe against the Giants’ stacked secondary that held him mostly in check in both games last season.

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals vs. Ravens. Mixon has some work to do before he ascends to the starting role. Jeremy Hill has held onto his job for now, and Giovani Bernard is still in the picture. This three-headed committee also faces an elite run defense. Cincinnati’s hopes are best through the air in this divisional matchup.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions vs. Cardinals. Arizona’s run defense packs a punch, while Detroit is always a pass-first offense. Abdullah, when healthy, has shown promise, but he often suffers when the Lions abandon the run and play catch-up. That’s when Theo Riddick takes over as the pass-catching back and Abdullah’s touches are limited.

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars vs. Texans. Houston has its problems, but pass defense isn’t one of them. Robinson is coming off an awful season and his beleaguered quarterback isn’t likely to reverse his fortunes against this tough secondary and potent pass rush.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts at Rams. I realize you probably have no choice but to start Hilton, but methinks you’re going to be disappointed. Not only will Scott Tolzien be dinking and dunking while covering for Andrew Luck, but the Rams sport a solid secondary that should cut off Hilton’s deep routes and force Tolzien to look elsewhere.

More thumbs down: QBs Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Trevor Siemian, Jared Goff; RBs C.J. Anderson, Ty Montgomery, Thomas Rawls, Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy, Paul Perkins, Leonard Fournette; WRs Jordan Matthews, Marvin Jones, Davante Adams, Alshon Jeffery, Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams, Sammy Watkins, Pierre Garcon, all Bears, Browns and Jets.

TAKING A FLIER

Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys vs. Giants. Dez Bryant was completely shut down by the Giants’ defensive backs in both of last season’s games. While that wouldn’t keep me from starting him, it does suggest Beasley will be a frequent, reliable target across the middle for Prescott. In PPR leagues especially, Beasley has significant upside.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO… ignores the inactive reports on Sundays. I say it every year, yet it bears repeating. Every week, including the opener, several star players (including Odell Beckham, Jr.) will be game-time decisions, and some will either be inactive or put on a play count. I tweet out the inactives and other late-breaking news as it happens all day Sunday (@ladd_biro), so follow me or find another reliable source. Just don’t set your lineup on Thursday and fuggetaboutit!



Monday, September 4, 2017

10 burning questions heading into Week 1

Now that most of us have completed our drafts, all we can do is wait for Thursday night’s opener. This is no time to let anticipation get the best of you.

As always seems to be the case, my social media accounts have been lit up with questions about various trade scenarios from owners who’ve apparently been staring at their rosters a little too hard and feel the need to do something, anything, to better position themselves for the season that just can’t get here fast enough.

I have one word for you: Relax!

Trust your draft preparation, don’t succumb to the knee-jerk trade offer and avoid impulsive free-agent moves. Instead, join me in pondering these 10 burning questions that should begin to be answered as 2017 Opening Weekend unfolds:

  1. Just how healthy are Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Danny Woodhead, Odell Beckham, Jr., Demaryius Thomas, Jordan Matthews and other nicked-up players? It’s never a good sign to head into Week 1 already nursing an injury, but these guys have no choice. Their fates will affect not only their owners, but those banking on the players around them.

  1. How soon, and how many games, will Zeke Elliott play? This may prove to be the most consequential question of the season. Those who gambled with a premium pick to select the Cowboys’ troubled superstar are rooting for a reduced suspension or successful legal injunction that will put Elliott on the field immediately. The rest of us just hope we face those owners while Zeke is sidelined.

  1. Who will emerge from obscurity? Last season Dak Prescott, Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, Spencer Ware, Davante Adams, Tyrell Williams and Terrelle Pryor shocked the fantasy world with unexpected stellar performances. Which players will we be scrambling to acquire in the next few weeks? Hint: Do you have your starting RBs handcuffed?

  1. How much rust do Marshawn Lynch and Martavis Bryant have on them? Beast Mode came out of retirement to be the battering ram the Raiders have been missing in their promising young offense. Bryant has been electrifying when on the field. Both return after a year out of the game, and owners like me are counting on them to reclaim their mojo immediately.

  1. Will the young guns live up to the hype? The NFL is banking on Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz and Prescott becoming the next generation of elite passers, and all enter the season with inflated expectations. My prediction: Carr, Mariota and Prescott will dazzle while Winston and Wentz fizzle.

  1. Which passing “attack” will be better-than-pathetic? I will be fairly shocked if any quarterback, wideout or tight end playing for the Bears, Bills, Browns, Jets, Rams or 49ers makes a consistent contribution to any fantasy squad this season. On a related note, I put the over/under on the Jets scoring their first passing touchdown at Week 3.

  1. How will the Patriots’ RB committee shake out? Fantasy veterans know Bill Belichick hates us, so those who invested in Dion Lewis, Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead or James White are just asking for weekly headaches. The best they can hope is that their pick emerges in the TD-centric role of LeGarrette Blount; but more likely, each player will be deployed on an inscrutable basis as dictated by Belichick’s weekly game plan.

  1. Could someone in the 2017 rookie RB class replicate Elliott’s first-year success? In previous seasons, we’ve witnessed the rapid emergence of several first-year receivers. This year, it’s all about the runners. Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook will each get the chance to shine right out of the gate. While none is blessed with the supporting cast that Elliott has, they all are well positioned to prosper.

  1. Will San Francisco’s defense be the MVP of fantasy football? The 49ers surrendered an average of 30 points and 406 yards per game in 2016, and only a diehard fan believes they will improve significantly this season. Their opponents could set records against this unit on a weekly basis.

  1. Will Jay Cutler lead the Dolphins where Ryan Tannehill couldn’t? Short answer: No. But as long as Good Jay shows up more often than Bad Jay, Cutler should salvage decent-to-strong fantasy value for Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker.

After another interminable offseason, I’m ready for these answers – and others – to unfold. Aren’t you?

Saturday, September 2, 2017

My second real draft -- from the 4 spot

Well, everything didn't go my way in Thursday night's draft either, but I feel good about the results nevertheless.

Here's the roster I assembled in my 10-man PPR league starting with the 4th overall selection:

Pick 1.4: Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers. I signaled my preference for Gordon in my Perfect Draft column, and I followed through accordingly. I continue to believe that waiting on your RB1 until the 2nd round is a very risky proposition, unless...

Pick 2.7: Brandin Cooks, WR, Patriots. As I read The Dallas Morning News and other accounts of the Zeke Elliott case, I wonder if I made a really bad decision not to take Zeke here. Because, of course, he was snatched up before I had a shot with my 3rd pick (where I definitely would have pulled the trigger). No doubt Cooks is a very solid pick with elite potential, but teaming Zeke with Gordon (or taking Julio first and Zeke second) would be pretty doggone powerful if the Cowboys RB is able to escape punishment. (Important side note: By all accounts, Zeke needs a real slap in the face, and a six-game suspension for his alleged pattern of misbehavior seems more than fair. My comments above are strictly fantasy-based.)

Pick 3.4: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Raiders. Still love this pick, but I worry that I reached a bit too much. According to some ESPN mocks I did prior to our draft, the Beast fell to the 4th round. But the risk was too high, in my opinion, that I would get stuck with a RB2 that wasn't worthy of the position if I waited another round.

Pick 4.7: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. I went off my board here because I felt Kelce provided exceptional value. I also haven't forgotten the sting of Kelce's extraordinary performance in Week 16 last season, which cost me a championship. I would have taken Greg Olsen with my 5th pick otherwise, but I felt comfortable waiting on Davante Adams in the next round and passing on a WR here.

Pick 5.4: Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. To my surprise, Adams was taken at 5.2, and Jamison Crowder right after that. There go the two WRs I was targeting in this round. Kareem Hunt was another guy I thought might drop, but he disappeared as well. I was not expecting to draft Mixon, but I felt he offered the most value, and upside, among those on the board.

Pick 6.7: Drew Brees, QB, Falcons. The run on QBs was on, with Rodgers, Brady, Dak (yes, we have a homer among us) and Ryan all gone. Despite my on-going worries at the WR position, I decided it was more important to snare an elite QB than a less-than-exciting WR like Brandon Marshall or Tyreek Hill.

Pick 7.4: Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers. So easy to overlook, and not officially reinstated at the time I drafted him, I decided to swing for the fences with a wideout with huge upside (assuming he can stay out of trouble). When the guy picking right before me took C.J. Anderson here (reinforcing the perils of posting my Perfect Draft prior to my own drafts), it made the Bryant call easier.

Pick 8.7: Tyrell Williams, WR, Chargers. Suddenly I feel much better about my WR corps. If all goes as planned, Cooks, Bryant and Williams will all be Top 20 WRs, and two of those could easily sneak into the Top 10 ranks. That said, I essentially just forfeited Week 9 -- when my RB1 and top 3 WRs are all on bye; which, frankly, isn't a terrible strategy, if they all play up to their expectations in the other weeks.

Pick 9.4: Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons. This pick offered two benefits: It gave me solid RB depth, with the possible upside of a RB1 should his running mate go down, and it really irritated my buddy who was planning to lock in his first pick's handcuff with his next pick.

Pick 10.7: Derek Carr, QB, Raiders. I was the first player to take a backup QB, but 3 other guys were still QB-less. I would have been happy had I passed on Brees earlier and taken Carr here, so I couldn't pass up the value he represents. Plus, I knew at least one of those QB-challenged guys was banking on Carr being their QB1. The moans I heard after making the selection confirmed that.

Pick 11.4: Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles. I continue to believe Sproles will be the most valuable Philly RB in PPR leagues. Just how valuable that proves to be is another story.

Pick 12.7: Broncos defense/special teams. I always prefer to start the run on a position, rather than playing catchup. As predicted, once I broke the ice, several others started grabbing lesser defenses.

Pick 13.4: Corey Davis, WR, Titans. Okay, the rookie has 8 weeks to figure out the NFL and get in sync with Mariota, because he's likely to be my WR1 in Week 9.

Pick 14.7: Taylor Gabriel, WR, Falcons. I most likely took him earlier than I needed to, but I thought I could safely wait another round or two to grab Austin Hooper as my backup TE. Alas, the rat b***stard that knew my plan and drafted before me took him.

Pick 15.4. Mason Crosby, K, Packers. Thanks to the adult beverages I was consuming, I thought we were in the 16th round, and I had a feeling the good kickers would be gone by the time the draft got back to me. I was right about that last part, but by taking Crosby, I whiffed on the chance to grab Jacquizz Rodgers. My bad.

Pick 16.7: Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants. Not the least bit happy with this pick. Unless he has a great Week 1 or 2, he'll be the first to go when I hit the free-agent pool.

Pick 17.4: D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texans. I think he has a legit shot at claiming the lead RB role in Houston by mid-season. But will I have the patience to wait? We'll see.

There you have it. Thursday night can't get here soon enough!