Monday, December 12, 2016

Bell yes! Steelers RB stands tall while Big Ben gets small

Sunday was a Tale of Two Steelers.

Le’Veon Bell entered the pantheon of all-time great fantasy performers with his 236-rushing-yard, 62-receiving-yard, 3-TD pounding of the Bills on Sunday. If you had Bell in your lineup, you could have teamed him with the cast of The Golden Girls and still vaulted into the second round of your playoff bracket.

Then again, if you were relying on Ben Roethlisberger for postseason glory, the last thing you want to do today is read a fantasy column. Even this Pulitzer-worthy tome. Roethlisberger’s zero-TD, three-interception debacle resulted in shattered TV screens across Fantasyland and reminded veteran players that what Big Ben giveth, he so often taketh away.

While Bell lapped the field among the weekend’s fantasy studs, there was no shortage of laggards to keep Roethlisberger company in the back of the pack.

For the second consecutive week, Drew Brees burned the owners he had carried all season, with a stat line eerily reminiscent of Big Ben’s. Russell Wilson tossed five – yes, five! – interceptions against the Packers. Derek Carr blew a gasket on Thursday night and Marcus Mariota completed six – yes, six! – passes against the Broncos.

Both Melvin Gordon and Matt Forte succumbed to injuries before registering a fantasy point, putting many of their owners in a hole that proved far too deep to overcome. And Devonta Freeman mysteriously disappeared while his teammates were racking up 42 points against the lowly Rams.

Speaking of the Falcons, who said Matt Ryan would shoot blanks without Julio Jones? Atlanta’s gunslinger came through with flying colors for those who trusted him, with ample help from Tevin Coleman and the rapidly emerging fantasy darling, Taylor Gabriel.

Meanwhile, Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins continued their season-long slides to irrelevance, Kelvin Benjamin put up another stinker, Donte Moncrief laid a goose egg before pulling a hammy and the ageless Larry Fitzgerald wilted in the South Florida rains.

Then on Sunday night, yet another story unfolded. Let’s call it a Tale of Two Divas. Odell Beckham, Jr. reminded us what elite wideouts look like. Dez Bryant? Not so much…

Here’s hoping you found yourself on the right side of the boom-or-bust ledger this weekend.


WAIVER WIRE PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling gaps in your roster with the occasional waiver-wire acquisition is also important. At this point in the season, the pickings are slim and your best bet is to stick with your regular starters. But here's a look at a couple of players worth considering anyway, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup down the stretch.

Catch ‘em while you can

Bilal Powell, RB, Jets. Powell took over the Jets backfield when Matt Forte exited early with a knee injury, racking up 179 combined yards and 2 TDs against the generous 49ers defense. If Forte’s injury keeps him sidelined, Powell’s skills as a rusher and receiver can be exploited against the Dolphins in Week 15.

Robbie Anderson, WR, Jets. Friday’s “Flier of the Week” continued to profit from the attention lavished on him by his new quarterback. Bryce Petty once again targeted Anderson 11 times on Sunday – nearly as many targets as Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa combined – resulting in six receptions for 99 yards. PPR leaguers in need of a high-volume flex option could do worse than start Anderson against Miami.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears. Remember him? Jeffery’s four-game suspension ended this week, meaning he is eligible to return to face the Packers. Matt Barkley has played well enough to consider Jeffery a viable option for WR-challenged contenders in Week 15 and beyond.

Don’t be fooled

Kenneth Farrow, RB, Chargers. Melvin Gordon’s hip injury will almost surely throw the Chargers backfield – and his fantasy owners – into a tizzy. Farrow carried the load nicely in Gordon’s absence – both in the rushing and passing games – but don’t expect the rookie to be handed the workhorse role. Look for Ronnie Hillman, and possibly even former Giant and current practice-squader Andre Williams, to team with Farrow in a time-share arrangement that makes them all unreliable for fantasy purposes.

Justin Forsett, RB, Broncos. Yes, the well-traveled Forsett out-ran and out-received Devontae Booker on Sunday. That’s more bad news for Booker’s owners than good news for those contemplating an investment in Forsett. Considering that Denver ran the ball a whopping nine times (for 18 yards), this is not a backfield worth banking on.

DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins. Parker had been coming into his own as a play-making complement to Jarvis Landry. But with the season-ending injury to Ryan Tannehill, Parker is likely to revert to his boom-or-bust ways as he works on his rapport with Matt Moore. Landry should maintain his dominance of Miami’s short passing game, but the long balls to Parker will be harder to replicate.
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Sunday, December 11, 2016

Sunday morning observations -- Week 14

Good morning Fools, from 39,000 feet en route from DFW to Orlando, where I will be working the media for the 2016 Road to Recovery Conference & Tribute, a life-changing, week-long, all-expenses-paid experience for nearly 100 combat-wounded veterans and their families. It's hosted by the Coalition to Salute America's Heroes, a leading veterans service organization that I cannot say enough good things about. If you're looking for a group to support with your holiday donations, please consider the Coalition. See more here: saluteheroes.org.

Now, back to the important stuff: Week 14 of the NFL regular season and Week 1 of most fantasy league playoffs! I'm pleased to report that I have a bye in my big-money league, but I'll be duking it out today in my other league as the 3rd seed (despite scoring the most points during the season).

[Quick sidebar]: I think I've come up with the perfect tie-breaker for playoff seeding: See what your records would be if you swapped schedules. In the league where I'm the 3rd seed, I finished with an 8-5 record. However, had I played the same schedule as the two guys above me at 9-4, I would have been 10-3 and 11-2 respectively, and the 2nd-seeded team would have been 6-7! In other words, by sheer luck of the draw (randomized schedule), one guy is sipping fruity drinks by the pool today enjoying his bye while I'm fighting to make it to the 2nd round.

Well, every parent knows what to say next, right? Life's not always fair!

OK, enough about me. Let's take our usual spin around the NFL to find the news we can use to dominate in our first-round matchups:

Arguably the biggest news of the day is that Julio Jones will be a game-time decision with his turf toe injury. You may have read that the beat writer for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is saying that Julio will be "a decoy at best." That's obviously not what you want to hear if you're banking on Julio or Matt Ryan. It's almost always a terrible idea to sit your studs in a playoff contest, and I'm glad I don't have to make that decision. But depending on your other options, you need to consider benching both Julio and Ryan. (By the way, Mohamed Sanu has already been declared out, so Taylor Gabriel could be a very busy receiver today.)

Trevor Siemian appears to be on track to play, which is great news for both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Assuming their QB is active, don't hesitate to start either WR against the Titans' mediocre pass defense.

Doug Martin has been just so-so since returning from injury in Week 10. And now he'll have to contend for touches not just with Jacquizz Rodgers but also Charles Sims, who was activated by the Bucs yesterday. Not sure if Sims will be active today, but it's not a good sign for Martin in the stretch run. I'm benching him today (in favor of Thomas Rawls) and suggest you consider the same if you have a viable alternative.

Similarly, Rashad Jennings will get some more competition for carries as Shane Vereen is expected to rejoin the Giants backfield alongside rookie Paul Perkins. I'm no fan of Jennings to begin with, and this news only reinforces my view.

It looks like Kirk Cousins will be getting his favorite target back today as Jordan Reed is expected to play against the Eagles. Start him if you've got him.

Mark Ingram is also expected to be active and start as usual. Tim Hightower should be nowhere near your starting lineup.

Roughly 30% of fantasy teams still have Julius Thomas on their roster. But the oft-injured TE is once again on IR. Drop him (even in keeper leagues) and find someone who might be able to help you down the stretch.

Others confirmed or almost certainly out: Chris Ivory, A.J. Green and Dorial Green-Beckham.

And once again, there is uncertainty with the Pittsburgh kicker situation. Chris Boswell is still nursing an abdomen injury, which could lead to another fill-in game for Randy Bullock. It's probably best if you just look elsewhere for your kicking points, especially since the weather in Buffalo is forecast to be, well, very Buffalo-like.

Other games that could be adversely affected by the elements: Bengals @ Browns, Redskins @ Eagles, Seahawks @ Packers, Cowboys @ Giants and Cardinals @ Dolphins (wind/rain).

That's it for now. I'll have the inactives and other late-breaking news via Twitter shortly. Good luck, Fools!

Friday, December 9, 2016

Week 14 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Ezekiel Elliott and Jordy Nelson, or to bench Bryce Petty and Christine Michael? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 14 of the 2016 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers vs. Saints. Winston has cooled off over the last three games, though two of those contests came against the Chiefs and Seahawks. He and Mike Evans should reacquaint themselves in this matchup, though, as the Bucs try to keep pace with Drew Brees & Co. New Orleans’ secondary believes in the spirit of giving, so look for Winston to do plenty of taking.

Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks at Packers. Green Bay’s run defense is light years away from its early season heroics, having transformed from stingy to sucky. Rawls should have no trouble maintaining his positive momentum from Week 13, especially given the frigid conditions on the frozen tundra, which should put a slight damper on the passing attacks.

Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals at Browns. This could be another frosty affair favoring the running games. Despite Rex Burkhead’s advances, Hill remains Cincinnati’s lead rusher, and they love to utilize him at the goal line. Cleveland has surrendered 13 rushing TDs in 12 games. Look for Hill to make it 14-for-13.

Ted Ginn, WR, Panthers vs. Chargers. Wondering where all of Kelvin Benjamin’s and Greg Olsen’s stats have gone? Look no further than Ginn, who has racked up 241 receiving yards and 3 TDs over the last three games. As you may recall, Ginn was a late-season bloomer in 2015 as well, so don’t be surprised if he continues his surge.

Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants vs. Cowboys. The familiar mantra is that Dallas’ defense is playing much better than anticipated, but they’ve still given up a ton of passing yards (more than 276 per game) and a whopping 20 TDs through the air. Of course, they’ll be heavily focused on Odell Beckham, Jr., which means Shepard will again be covered by lesser defenders. He should be a busy man Sunday night.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer; RBs LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Jonathan Stewart, Frank Gore; WRs Donte Moncrief, Tyler Boyd, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Marshall, Jordan Matthews, Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, Tyrell Williams, Jamison Crowder, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith, Michael Thomas, Julian Edelman, Taylor Gabriel.

Roll ‘em back

Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans vs. Broncos. Mariota has helped lead many a grateful owner to the fantasy postseason, but this isn’t the week to expect heroics. Denver’s top-ranked pass defense is not to be trifled with, and despite coming off a week of rest, the young gunslinger will surely be tested by his opponents’ relentless pass rush and world-class corners.

Devontae Booker, RB, Broncos at Titans. Trevor Siemian is on track to reclaim his starting job, which is great news for the Broncos’ passing game. For his part, Booker will be facing an imposing defensive line that has surrendered just six rushing scores in 12 outings. His ceiling isn’t high enough to justify the risk.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles vs. Redskins. Washington offers one of the most favorable matchups for opposing rushers, but Mathews is unlikely to exploit his good fortune. He’s likely to be limited coming off a knee injury, and he’ll re-join a crowded backfield in which both Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood have carved out their respective turf. He may luck into a goal-line plunge, but Mathews figures to be a low-volume performer on Sunday.

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars vs. Vikings. I hate to pick on A-Rob two weeks in a row, but he deserves it. He simply isn’t getting the job done, especially against elevated competition like the Broncos and this weekend’s opponent. Look for safer options.

Rishard Matthews, WR, Titans vs. Broncos. Matthews is on a stellar roll coming off his bye, notching seven TDs over his last eight games. But just as Mariota will be facing his toughest test of the season, so will Matthews. Neither is likely to help you advance to the second round of your playoffs.

More thumbs down: QBs Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Brock Osweiler, Jared Goff; RBs Rashad Jennings, Jerick McKinnon, Tim Hightower, James Starks, Carlos Hyde, T.J. Yeldon, Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon, Wendell Smallwood, Chris Ivory; WRs Will Fuller, Victor Cruz, John Brown, Marvin Jones, Tavon Austin, Travis Benjamin, Allen Hurns, Randall Cobb, Cameron Meredith, Adam Thielen, Corey Coleman, Terrelle Pryor, Michael Floyd.


TAKING A FLIER

Robby Anderson, WR, Jets at 49ers. I’ll begin by making clear there’s no way I’d start Anderson in the first round of the playoffs. But I still wouldn’t be surprised if he soars. If you actually watched Monday night’s game, you saw Bryce Petty direct 11 passes his way in the second half alone. Anderson dropped several of them, but he did snag a nice long TD reception. Against the soft 49ers secondary, Anderson should continue to build on his obvious rapport with the Jets’ new signal-caller.


DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…fails to factor in the weather this weekend. Blustery conditions are possible in several parts of the country, and could tilt your lineup decisions between two otherwise equal options. Remember, kickers are expendable and often shouldn’t be trusted in slippery and windy elements.


Monday, December 5, 2016

Week 13 Heroes & Zeros

This was a great week to play…

QBs
Joe Flacco, Ravens – Lit up the Dolphins for 381 yards and 4 TDs, with 1 INT.
Andrew Luck, Colts -- Torched the Jets with 278 yards and 4 TDs, and ran for 26 yards, with no turnovers.
Carson Palmer, Cardinals – Passed for 300 and 3 TDs, without a turnover.

RBs
Jordan Howard, Bears – Rumbled through the 49ers with 117 yards and 3 TDs.
David Johnson, Cardinals – Ran for 84 yards and a TD caught 9 passes for 91 yards and another TD.
Thomas Rawls, Seahawks – Rushed for 106 yards and 2 TDs, and caught a 12-yarder.
Devonta Freeman, Falcons – Scored twice while rushing for 56 yards and caught 4 passes for 49 yards.
Spencer Ware, Chiefs – Ran for 29 yards and a TD and caught 3 passes for 23 yards and a 2nd TD.
Latavius Murray, Raiders – Rushed for 82 yards and 2 TDs, and caught 3 passes for 23 yards.
LeSean McCoy, Bills – Ran for 130 yards and grabbed 7 passes for 61 yards.
Terrance West, Ravens – Scored as a runner and receiver while combining for 68 yards.

WRs
Golden Tate, Lions – Grabbed 8 balls for 145 yards and a TD.
Jordy Nelson, Packers – Caught 8 passes for 118 yards and 1 TD.

TEs
Dwayne Allen, Colts -- Had a career game, catching 4 passes for 72 yards and a TD trifecta.
Dennis Pitta, Ravens – Reeled in 9 passes for 90 yards and 2 TDs.
Ladarius Green, Steelers – Caught 6 passes for 110 yards and a TD.

D/STs
Broncos – Had 0 sacks, but grabbed 2 INTs and a fumble and scored on an INT return while holding the Jags to 10 points.


This was a great week to play against…

QBs
Drew Brees, Saints – Had a miserable afternoon, passing for 326 yards and 3 INTs, without a score.
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers – Benched after passing for 4 yards. Yes, 4 yards. Oh, he ran for 20 also. Oh my.
Matt Barkley, Bears – Passed for just 192 yards without a TD or turnover.
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins – Passed for 226 yards, but his 3 INTs negated his 1 TD.
Blake Bortles, Jaguars – Had a horrible day, passing for 181 yards, no TDs, 2 INTs and a lost fumble.

RBs
James Starks, Packers – Shared the rushing duties with 5 other players, and finished with 1 whole yard.
Tim Hightower, Saints – Combined for 9 yards as a rusher and receiver.
Wendell Smallwood, Eagles – Rushed for a measly 19 yards.
Lamar Miller, Texans – Ran for 22 yards and lost 4 yards as a receiver.
Todd Gurley, Rams – Continued his wretched season with 38 rushing and 9 receiving yards.

WRs
Every 49ers WR – Let’s just say Jeremy Kerley led the way with an 18-yarder.
Marquess Wilson, Bears – A week after leading his team in receiving, got blanked, then injured.
Victor Cruz, Giants -- Shut out in Week 13.
Quincy Enunwa, Jets -- Stuck with a 10-yard pass.
Davante Adams, Packers – Caught a 17-yarder.
Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers – Just 18 yards on 2 receptions.
Cole Beasley, Cowboys – Got 23 yards on 2 passes.
Mohamed Sanu, Falcons – Just 26 yards on 2 catches.
Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos – Only 28 yards on 3 receptions.
Allen Robinson, Jaguars – Had 3 catches for 31 yards.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers – Reeled in 3 passes for 38 yards.

TEs
Jason Witten, Cowboys – Laid a goose egg.
Martellus Bennett, Patriots – Disappointed again with just 4 yards on 2 catches.

Don’t let your fantasy team get Kaep’d

So I guess that means the Colin Kaepernick Experiment is over, huh?

Kaepernick was a popular addition to fantasy rosters over the previous two weeks. He was even started in nearly a third of all ESPN leagues in Week 13.

And why not? He had found his groove as a passer and was piling on rushing yards that more than compensated for any deficiencies in passing yards and touchdowns. Chicago was not considered a formidable opponent.

Then winter came.

Apparently Kaep is a fair-weather QB. Or, let’s be honest, just not that great to begin with. If he was, he wouldn’t have gotten the hook so quickly.

He finished Sunday’s game with one completion (in five attempts) for four yards. Oh my.

(At least nobody made the same mistake as Carolina coach Ron Rivera and started Derek Anderson against the Seahawks…)

On a much less disastrous level, owners who “chased points” with Tyreek Hill or Taylor Gabriel likewise came up short-handed this weekend. Neither was a disaster, though; so depending on your other options, starting Gabriel or Hill may not have been a mistake.

But the lesson is clear: Bench your steady-and-true starters in favor of late-season bloomers at your peril. Particularly when it comes to a one-slot position like quarterback.

And especially when the stakes are elevated in the fantasy postseason.

Nobody wants to get Kaep’d.


WAIVER WIRE PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Buccaneers. Rodgers took over Tampa Bay’s backfield late in Sunday’s contest after Doug Martin was “bent back” on a tackle and exited the game. His coach is now saying Martin did not incur a serious injury, but his owners should monitor this situation closely anyway. If he is sidelined for a game or more, Rodgers will be a worthy proxy.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Steelers. As we head into the postseason, it’s worth a reminder that there is no more valuable handcuff in Fantasyland than Williams. Le’Veon Bell’s owners, in particular, need to grab and stash D-Will for the stretch run. He’s nearly a month removed from his knee scope and is once again just one play away from being a dominating force who could propel you to a title.

Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens. Unlike Ladarius Green (below), Pitta has a long and successful track record with Joe Flacco. So his 90-yard, 2-TD performance against the Dolphins wasn’t necessarily an aberration. He also has a favorable schedule moving forward. If you’re in need of TE help, Pitta is worth a gamble.

Don’t be fooled

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens. Unless you think Sunday’s stellar performance was the beginning of another late-season tear like he experienced during his unlikely Super Bowl run in 2012, don’t waste your time with Flacco. In nine of 12 games this season, he connected on zero or one passing TDs. Look for more busts than booms in the weeks ahead.

Josh Bellamy, WR, Bears. Remember when Cameron Meredith was all the rage? Last week, it was Marquess Wilson. On Sunday, Bellamy led the Bears in receiving – and could have soared even higher if not for a couple of bad drops – so you can bet he will be a hot waiver-wire recommendation by many so-called fantasy “gurus.” Puh-leeze. From last week’s column: “Chicago’s passing attack remains a work-in-progress, and no receiver is likely to emerge as a consistent fantasy contributor.” I’m not saying it’s gospel, but I would heed those words.

Ladarius Green, TE, Steelers. He finally had the breakout game in Pittsburgh that we’ve been waiting for. And the big difference on Sunday was that Green was targeted 11 times. Alas, I just don’t think he can be trusted in the fantasy postseason given his short and undistinguished resume. Let someone else take the bait.

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Sunday morning observations -- Week 13

Good morning, Fools. It's chilly and drizzly today in North Texas, but it's always beautiful in Fantasyland. And for most of us, it's the last week of the regular season, so playoff berths and seeding are up for grabs.

Let's take our weekly swing around the NFL for the news we can use to finish strong...

Tom Brady is questionable with his knee, but fully expected to play. He certainly has a favorable matchup, but he'll be Gronk-less, and that's not optimal. I'll be starting him with confidence in one league nevertheless. At least we know Julian Edelman, Malcolm Mitchell, Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett are good to go.

Andrew Luck is out of the concussion protocol and will play tomorrow night. He's also expected to have TY Hilton available despite his back injury (he fully participated in Saturday's practice, but is still listed as Q). I like both Hilton and Donte Moncrief in this highly favorable matchup.

I wish I knew more about Sammy Watkins' foot and tolerance for pain, because I wanted to start him today against the Raiders. But it just feels very risky, despite last week's solid 80-yard performance. I'm going back and forth on him.

Mark Ingram has looked iffy to play all week, but it now appears that he will make his usual start. That puts a damper on Tim Hightower's value, obviously.

Trevor Siemian won't play due to a foot injury, giving rookie Paxton Lynch his second start. As a Demaryius Thomas owner, that makes me nervous. But I feel better knowing that Lynch hit Thomas on a short TD pass in his previous start in Week 5. And he hit Emmanuel Sanders for a 5-yard TD pass in Week 4 as well. So no need to sit either wideout in today's favorable matchup with the Jags.

Contrary to previous reports, DeVante Parker tested his hamstring during warmups and will be active. The Dolfan in me is excited with this news, but the Jarvis Landry owner in me is disappointed.

Though not official yet, it is looking like Jordan Matthews and Marvin Jones won't suit up today.

We also know that Chris Ivory, Allen Hurns, Jeremy Maclin, Tavon Austin, Julius Thomas and Charles Clay have already been ruled out.

Finally, if Chris Boswell is your kicker, you should probably make other plans. The Steelers signed Randy Bullock yesterday after Boswell developed an abdomen problem. No word yet on whether or not Boswell will be active, but there's no reason to take any chances at that position. You can safely drop Boswell for another kicker with a favorable matchup, especially one playing indoors.

Speaking of weather, it doesn't look like it will be a major factor anywhere today. Some light snow is expected for the Texans-Packers game and light rain in Chicago, but no strong winds are forecast for any of the outdoor contests.

That's it for now. Inactives and other late-breaking news coming soon via Twitter. Go get 'em, Fools!

Friday, December 2, 2016

Week 13 Starters & Benchwarmers

 Wondering whether or not to start Drew Brees and Mike Evans, or to bench Fozzy Whittaker and Brian Quick? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 13 of the 2016 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Matt Stafford, QB, Lions at Saints. While Stafford has powered down in recent weeks, he still has the potential to explode in any given game. Dueling with the high-powered Saints, he’ll need to be at the top of his game. Detroit will likely abandon its running game early in this shootout, relying almost entirely on Stafford’s strong arm. 300 yards and multiple TDs are well within his reach.

Jordan Howard, RB, Bears vs. 49ers. With the notable exception of Jay Ajayi last week, the 49ers have been extremely generous to opposing tailbacks. In fact, the most generous in the league. Howard owns the Chicago backfield, and given the struggles in their passing game, he will be the centerpiece of their offense in this juicy matchup.

Devontae Booker, RB, Broncos at Jaguars. Trevor Siemian is dealing with a foot sprain, which could limit his effectiveness or even lead to a Paxton Lynch start. Either way, the running game will be critical, and Booker appears to have staved off the threat from Kapri Bibbs. The rookie rose to the challenge against the Chiefs last Sunday night and will have a much easier go of it Sunday in Jacksonville.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts at Jets. Not only has he notched a TD in each of his last four games, but Moncrief may be Indy’s lead wideout in the Monday nighter given the back injury that threatens T.Y. Hilton’s availability. Andrew Luck is expected to return from his concussion to face a Jets secondary that has been downright awful most of this season. Moncrief should have no trouble keeping his scoring streak intact.

Davante Adams, WR, Packers vs. Texans. Houston’s pass defense is not the imposing unit is was earlier in the season. And Adams is not the spare part he once was, either. The rapidly developing wideout has established himself as Option 1B to Jordy Nelson’s 1A in the Packers’ high-flying attack. Green Bay still can’t run, so look for another game waged through the air this weekend.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Jameis Winston, Derek Carr; RBs LeSean McCoy, Spencer Ware, Matt Forte, LeGarrette Blount, Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, Melvin Gordon, Lamar Miller; WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Demaryius Thomas, Amari Cooper, Julian Edelman.

Roll ‘em back

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers at Seahawks. Carolina has little left to play for, while the Seahawks just got embarrassed in Tampa Bay. Look for the Legion of Boom to come down hard on Newton, who rallied after a miserable start last week but has been mostly mediocre of late. Seattle won’t be hospitable to their underachieving guests.

Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons vs. Chiefs. Coleman returned from his bum hammy to post a paltry 1.1 yards-per-carry average on just eight rushing attempts last week. He salvaged his day with a short TD run, but was otherwise ineffective as both a rusher and receiver. Given his dependence on TDs, the Chiefs present a particularly poor matchup. Their four rushing scores allowed to date are tied for the league’s fewest.

Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins at Ravens. Speaking of bad matchups, the Ravens are the other team with just four rushing scores surrendered, and they also allow a league-least 74.9 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, Ajayi has been struggling behind the Dolphins’ depleted offensive line. His prospects are dim in Baltimore.

Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles at Bengals. Matthews is dealing with an ankle injury, but is still expected to make the trip to Cincinnati. He’ll be facing a stout Bengals secondary that has been limiting opposing wide receivers to less than 19 points per game over the last four weeks.

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars vs. Broncos. I don’t need to tell A-Rob’s owners what a disappointment his season has been. And it can’t all be blamed on Blake Bortles. This week, the once-explosive receiver faces the stiffest of tests when the NFL’s stingiest pass defense rolls into town. Denver has surrendered just 10 passing scores in 11 games.

More thumbs down: QBs Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, Jared Goff; RBs Todd Gurley, Jeremy Hill, Jonathan Stewart, Frank Gore, Thomas Rawls, James Starks, Kenneth Dixon; WRs Allen Hurns, DeSean Jackson, Dorial Green-Beckham, Pierre Garcon, DeVante Parker, Tavon Austin, Travis Benjamin, Sterling Shepard, Will Fuller, Tyrell Williams, Brandon LaFell.


TAKING A FLIER

Taylor Gabriel, WR, Falcons vs. Chiefs. Gabriel is still a low-volume receiver; but he has made the most of his targets, scoring four TDs over the last four games. The Chiefs’ pass defense is one of the NFL’s worst, and Gabriel is now arguably the No. 2 receiver in one of the league’s most prolific offenses. It’s a great matchup in the Georgia Dome for Matty Ice and his wideouts.


DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…complains about the way your league allocates postseason berths, seeding and payouts. That’s a discussion for preseason, not now. If you think your rules are unfair, put a reminder on your calendar for next August and propose a change prior to next season’s draft.