On cue, opening week dishes out surprises

Marcus Mariota to Kendall Wright. I told you to expect a huge game from this dynamic duo.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: clearly the next Gronkowski.

Ravens and Broncos defenses: 2 TDs. Peyton Manning: nada.

Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., Dez Bryant and Brandin Cooks each held under 50 receiving yards. As predicted here.

What, you say you missed those prognostications? From me, or anybody?

That’s because they’re what we in the fantasy guru biz call aberrations. They are especially common in season openers, when players are often rusty and teams are out of sync. But, more often than not, they prove to be the exceptions to the norm.

So don’t pat yourself too hard on the back for your late-round “steal” of Bishop Sankey. And don’t panic (yet) about Frank Gore’s no-show in the opener.

Maybe panic a little about Sammy Watkins’ goose egg.

Your primary focus today would be better placed on the rash of injuries of various severity that befell such stars as Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, C.J. Anderson, Andre Ellington and DeSean Jackson. How those situations are resolved, at least in the short term, will likely have more bearing on your future success than chasing after one-week wonders.

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, it helps to start with a great draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's lineup.

Catch ‘em while you can

Chris Johnson, RB, Cardinals. Starting running backs are rare birds, so even when they’re past their prime, they are usually roster-worthy. Johnson (or, as I like to call him, CJ.6K) is expected to play a lead role in Arizona’s backfield while Ellington recovers from his knee injury. Rookie David Johnson, who scored on a nifty 55-yard catch and run, will also be in the mix.

Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos. If you invested your first-round pick on C.J. Anderson, you’re probably worried today. And rightly so. The Broncos looked ragged against the Ravens even before Anderson left with a sprained toe. Hillman ran hard and surely has earned additional playing time. He’s Anderson’s proxy for the time being.

James Jones, WR, Packers. I was seriously tempted to call Jones my Week 1 flier, but that seemed so remote given his recent flameouts with the Raiders and Giants. Yet there he was, looking like the same guy that reeled in 14 TD passes from Aaron Rodgers in 2012. Jones finished with four receptions for 51 yards and two scores, but two other touchdowns were overturned by penalty. That’s unwelcome news for Davante Adams owners especially.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts. Moncrief had a couple of big games as a rookie that hinted at bigger things to come. Now that Hilton is in jeopardy of missing time with a knee injury, and with Andre Johnson seemingly having lost several steps, it’s Moncrief’s time to shine. Rookie Phillip Dorsett may likewise see more targets going forward.

Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins. Reed has always brimmed with potential, but injuries have held him back. That risk remains, but for now, his arrow is pointing up. Kirk Cousins targeted Reed more than any other receiver on Sunday (11 times), at least partly due to the loss of DeSean Jackson (hamstring). There’s no reason to think that will change soon.

Brandon McManus, K, Broncos. Got issues at kicker? McManus booted field goals of 57, 56, 43 and 33 yards in the Mile High air. The Broncos offense will presumably find their way into the end zone going forward, but they clearly have a big-footed mop-up man.

Don’t be fooled

Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans. Four TD passes in the first half of his NFL career, and I’m not recommending that you pick him up? Right. Call me crazy (it won’t be the first time), but as sharp as he looked against the hapless Bucs defense, I am still convinced that Mariota is destined to struggle more often than not through his rookie campaign. After all, the Titans didn’t get him at No. 2 overall because they were a good team. They just snapped a 10-game losing streak! If you are convinced Mariota will defy the odds, go right ahead. But I’ll bet you waive him before long.

Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots. Lewis raised eyebrows in the season opener, but he also fumbled in the red zone. How do you think Bill Belichick liked that? With LeGarrette Blount returning from his one-game suspension and the mighty Bills defense on tap next, Lewis’ moment in the spotlight may turn out to be a lot like Jonas Gray’s.

Percy Harvin, WR, Bills. There’s a reason Harvin went undrafted in more than half of all fantasy leagues. Actually several reasons. He’s injury prone. He’s just getting acquainted with his fourth team over the last four seasons. The Bills’ passing attack is very suspect. And he’s inconsistent as all get-out. Don’t take the bait.

Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys. Beasley is a fan favorite in Dallas, but he’s a very unlikely fantasy stud. Sure, he’ll see more targets with Bryant sidelined. But so will Terrance Williams, Lance Dunbar, Jason Witten and the rest of the Cowboys’ receivers. Bryant’s absence is more likely to hurt Tony Romo than help his undersized slot man.

Sunday morning updates - Week 1

Ah, yes yes yes. It's a beautiful Sunday morning in Fantasyland, so it's time to take a quick stroll across the NFL so we can make any necessary last-minute adjustments to our winning lineups.

Alshon Jeffery (calf) is active and should be a solid go against the Packers. He may not be 100%, but he's surely better than your backup options.

Prospects for Mike Evans (hamstring) aren't quite so positive. Though Evans is "optimistic" he will play, his bum hammy apparently hasn't healed fully, so don't be surprised if he's limited even if he is active today. That's too bad, because the Titans present a very nice matchup. Louis Murphy would start in his place, but you've got better alternatives, I hope.

Michael Floyd (fingers) looked like he'd be good to go, but the NFL Network just reported that he's inactive. Seems too early to make that call for the later game, so keep an eye on this one. I still like Carson Palmer's chances against the Saints.

Roddy White is expected to play. He's a marginal WR3/WR4 option this week.

Victor Cruz (calf) almost surely won't play tonight.

Dwayne Bowe is out. Yeah, I know. Who cares?

Tre Mason (thigh) is out, but you weren't going to start him anyway, right? Not against the Seahawks. Benny Cunningham is an even worse option. Just be patient...Gurley will be there soon.

Is the Falcons running game something we should watch, or avoid, this year? We'll start to find out Monday night against the Eagles. Rookie Tevin Coleman will get the start, but Devonte Freeman -- who likewise has been battling a bum hammy during preseason -- is probable and will share the carries. I'd keep both on your bench in Week 1.

I like Zach Ertz's chances this year, as long as both he and Sam Bradford are healthy. Sam looks good heading into Week 1, but Zach has been dealing with a sore groin (aren't we all?). He's questionable going into MNF, so if he's your TE, you may be better off riding another option today.

Next up: The inactives. I'll be tweeting them starting in just a couple of minutes at twitter.com/ladd_biro.

Week 1 Starters & Benchwarmers

Wondering whether or not to start Andrew Luck and Adrian Peterson, or to bench Brian Hoyer and Tavon Austin? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 1 of the 2015 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals vs. Saints. This contest sets up as a shootout, though Palmer may be slinging it without starting wideout Michael Floyd (fingers). Despite the favorable rushing matchup, Palmer will have to carry a big load to keep pace with Drew Brees & Co. Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown will do their parts.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers at Jaguars. I have plenty of concerns about J-Stew’s durability for the season, but at least he’s healthy heading into the opener. And given the sorry state of Carolina’s receiver corps, and the soft underbelly of the Jacksonville defense, Stewart should find plenty of room to roam on Sunday.

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets vs. Browns. Here’s another RB that I had no intention of drafting, yet he’s poised for great success against the worst run defense in the league in 2014. Ivory has no real competition for carries, and there are plenty of concerns about the Jets’ passing game. For one week at least, Ivory should shine.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints at Cardinals. Brandin Cooks has already been anointed the new leading man in New Orleans, but the veteran still retains an important role in the Saints’ high-powered passing attack. Arizona’s secondary was its bugaboo in 2014, so look for more aerial fireworks on Sunday.

Davante Adams, WR, Packers at Bears. I’m not convinced Randall Cobb can take a hit to his shoulder, which could keep him from prowling the between the hashes. Aaron Rodgers will have to look Adams’ way early and often, and we all know Chicago’s secondary is a sieve.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning; RBs Andre Ellington, Latavius Murray, Alfred Morris, Joique Bell, Alfred Blue, Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde; WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Jordan Matthews, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Jarvis Landry, Vincent Jackson, Anquan Boldin, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith.

Roll ‘em back

Phillip Rivers, QB, Chargers vs. Lions. Antonio Gates is suspended, Ladarius Green is in the concussion protocol and his rookie running back has struggled during the preseason. Rivers will need to connect regularly with Keenan Allen and new wideout Stevie Johnson to excel in this one. Despite Detroit’s so-so secondary, I have my doubts Rivers will get off to a strong start.

Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons vs. Eagles. The rookie has been named the starter, seemingly by default, but Devonta Freeman will get his share of the carries as well. More concerning is that both backs saw minimal work during the preseason due to hamstring injuries, and Atlanta’s offensive line is highly suspect. Stay away from this backfield on Monday night, and until further notice.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers vs. Lions. Detroit was the toughest team to run against in 2014, but that was with new Dolphin Ndamukong Suh anchoring the middle of the defensive line. Still, the Lions should be stout and Gordon has done little in camp to suggest he’s in line for a stellar debut. He’ll likely come out on third downs in favor of Danny Woodhead, so consider other options for your Week 1 lineup.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans vs. Chiefs. I feel for the folks who invested a premium pick in Hopkins, who seems destined to struggle due to mediocrity at the quarterback position. Facing a solid Kansas City secondary that has been fortified by the return of safety Eric Berry, all bets are off with Houston’s passing game.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Jets vs. Browns. It’s bad enough that Marshall will be stretching out for passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he’ll be doing so with Joe Haden blanketing him. Marshall has the size to outleap the shutdown corner in the end zone, but I wouldn’t count on it.

More thumbs down: QBs Cam Newton, Nick Foles, Jay Cutler, Colin Kaepernick, Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco; RBs Ryan Mathews, Ameer Abdullah, Bishop Sankey, Benny Cunningham; WRs Kendall Wright, Allen Robinson, Torrey Smith, Pierre Garcon, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal, Eric Decker.

TAKING A FLIER

Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles at Falcons. A rookie wideout playing in his first career game? Yeah, that’s the very definition of a flier. But Agholor looked sharp in the preseason, as did Sam Bradford. Going up against the worst pass defense in the league from 2014, Agholor’s debut could be a memorable one.

DON’T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO…ignores the inactive reports. I say it every year, yet it bears repeating. Every week, including the opener, several star players will be game-time decisions, and some will either be inactive or put on a play count. I tweet out the inactives and other late-breaking news as it happens (@ladd_biro), so follow me or find another reliable source. Just don’t set your lineup on Thursday and forget about it!

My last draft of the season, from the 3 hole

It's almost here, Fools! Thursday night's kickoff is just hours away! How awesome is that?

I just had my final draft of the preseason last night. It's a 10-team PPR league, and I had the 3rd overall pick. Here's what I did, for better or worse...

Pick 1.3: Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs. The #2 RB on my board, after AP. Especially lethal in PPR leagues.

Pick 2.8: A.J. Green, WR, Bengals. Missed Megatron by "that much." Love AJG, but he's no Mega, OBJ or Dez. Hopefully he can stay healthy and Dalton kicks it up a notch.

Pick 3.3: Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens. Love him as a third-rounder, especially in PPR leagues. He should be targeted for a lot more passes in Mark Trestman's offensive scheme.

Pick 4.8: Davante Adams, WR, Packers. The receivers were getting very thin, so I had to pounce. Only 2 QBs off the board so far (Luck and Rodgers). Adams is a nice sleeper, but I'd like him more as my WR2.

Pick 5.3: Drew Brees, QB, Saints. I could have taken Peyton or Russell Wilson, but decided to stick to my guns and roll with a perennial Top 3 fantasy QB. Given the reaction of my league-mates, I might have pulled the trigger a round early, but probably not. Four QBs went off the board before my next pick, including Brady and Romo.

Pick 6.8: Todd Gurley, RB, Rams. You know I'm fixated on him this season. I was planning to take Jarvis Landry here and gamble that Gurley would make it back around, but the Dolphins WR was scooped up at 6.6. So it made this call easier.

Pick 7.3: DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins. Foiled again! The plan was to take Arian Foster here, but he left the board at 6.10. Dangit! If I had taken Arian, would Gurley have survived the swing? We may never know. D-Jax is a solid WR3.

Pick 8.8: Jordan Cameron, TE, Dolphins. I was sweating this one as several tier-2 TEs were coming off the board in rapid succession. Not everyone feels like I do about Cameron, though. Love his upside. Just hoping he doesn't get his bell rung again.

Pick 9.3: Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns. Crowell has never figured in any of my draft scenarios, but Michael Floyd was taken at 9.1 and I needed another healthy back. With Terrance West shipped off to Tennessee, and 3-4 beers in my system, Crowell seemed like the right call. Also felt too early to take Charles Sims or Alfred Blue, both of whom I was holding out for.

Pick 10.8: Marques Colston, WR, Saints. Old reliable, he's a solid bye-week or injury fill-in to pair with my QB.

Pick 11.3: Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles. I've talked myself into taking him in two drafts now. I'll probably regret it the next time he falls on his shoulder, but there's a lot to like about the Eagles' offense. I also made this selection here because my buddy picking at 11.5 had yet to grab a QB and I knew he was eyeing Bradford. Sometimes one man's pain is another man's gain.

Pick 12.8: DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins. Consolation for missing out on Landry, Parker could actually develop into a more valuable fantasy commodity as the season goes on. Probably not, but it's possible. Blue was selected at 12.1 and Sims at 12.4. Dangit.

Pick 13.3: Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs. Arguably the most important handcuff in Fantasyland, Davis can nearly match Jamaal's production should the starter go down.

Pick 14.8: Rams defense/special teams. The run on defenses started late but was well underway by the time I picked. I grabbed the top DST on my board just in time.

Pick 15.3: Brian Quick, WR, Rams. Sticking with the Missouri theme, I love Quick's sleeper potential after he flashed his skills briefly in 2014.

Pick 16.8: Brandon McManus, K, Broncos. Hard to go wrong investing in the mop-up guy for Peyton's offense.

Pick 17.3: Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers. I'm perfectly content waiting until he has served his four-game penance. But I didn't realize till after the fact that his bye week is the same as Cameron's. Doh!

There you have it. I'm ready to send these guys off to battle on behalf of the Fantasy Fools.

It's time to dominate!

10 burning questions heading into Week 1

Thursday night can’t get here soon enough.

I still have one draft to go (tonight), but after that come those days of limbo when anticipation can get the best of you.

I’ve already started receiving tweets and emails with questions about various trade and waiver-wire scenarios from owners who’ve apparently been staring at their rosters a little too hard and feel the need to do something, anything, to better position themselves for immediate success.

I have one word for you: Relax!

Unless, of course, you followed my advice and grabbed Jonas Gray. Sorry about that! Go ahead and dump him for a free agent with upside. (I picked up Knile Davis, who went undrafted in one of my leagues.)

Otherwise, trust your draft preparation, don’t succumb to the knee-jerk trade offer and avoid impulsive waiver-wire moves. Instead, join me in pondering these 10 burning questions that should begin to be answered as 2015 Opening Weekend unfolds:

1. How soon will LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, Todd Gurley, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, Julian Edelman and other nicked-up stars be ready to go full throttle? It’s never a good sign to head into the regular season already nursing an injury, because they often linger and/or re-emerge later in the season. Rush back too soon, and all bets are off.

2. Who will emerge from obscurity? Last season Justin Forsett, C.J. Anderson and Brandon LaFell became prized free-agent acquisitions after stellar early-season performances. Which players will we be scrambling for in the coming weeks? Early candidates: Titans RB Terrance West, Rams WR Brian Quick, Dolphins WR DeVante Parker and Bears WR Eddie Royal, who always seems to tease us early on.

3. Can the new-look Eagles make Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense hum? Sam Bradford looked sharp in the preseason, but the injury bug plagues him. Can DeMarco Murray hold up all season after handling the ball 450 times last year in Dallas? Can Jordan Matthews continue his progression while Nelson Agholor attempts to fill Jeremy Maclin’s cleats? One thing seems certain: This group will be fun to watch.

4. Is Melvin Gordon the next LaDainian Tomlinson, or the next Ryan Mathews? The Chargers traded up in the first round of April’s draft to grab the man they hope will be their next franchise back. But so far, Gordon isn’t reminding anyone of LT. Millions of fantasy owners have invested a premium pick in the rookie, even though he’s mostly struggled this preseason.

5. How will the Cowboys’ RB committee shake out? Joseph Randle will be the nominal starter, but oft-injured Darren McFadden is clearly more explosive. And what are we to make of the late acquisition of former Seahawk Christine Michael? When, if ever, will he get a chance to showcase his considerable talents?

6. Will Cam Newton throw a TD pass to a wideout this season? Scoff if you like, but Alex Smith didn’t in 2014. With no receiver on the roster seemingly capable of filling Kelvin Benjamin’s role, Newton’s options are Greg Olsen and, um…

7. Which rookies will make an immediate impact? Gurley could set the league on fire in St. Louis, but he needs to get fully healthy first. Gordon, Ameer Abdullah and T.J. Yeldon will get plenty of opportunities to shine. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota will surely take their lumps. Most intriguing: Can Amari Cooper, Agholor and the rest of this year’s rookie wideouts possibly measure up to the stellar class of 2014?

8. What antics does Bill Belichick have in store for his backfield this year? Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are gone. LeGarrette Blount is back, though suspended for Week 1. The inscrutable head coach already threw us a curve ball with the release of presumed opening day starter Jonas Gray. James White and Brandon Bolden will likely share the backfield in Thursday’s opener, but will Blount return to a committee?

9. After a year’s hiatus, will Adrian Peterson return to elite form? Spoiler alert: You betcha.

10. Will the Jaguars produce a single fantasy stud? How about the Titans? Or the Browns? Yeldon and Allen Robinson are the most promising candidates in Jacksonville, but will their talent be squandered? Will Delanie Walker get any support from his rookie QB, the unproven outside receivers or Tennessee’s mediocre running game? Will this be the first and last time that “Isaiah Crowell” and “stud” are written in the same sentence?

After another interminable offseason, these questions and many more will begin to be answered in just a few days.  And I can’t wait.

The Fool's Take: Brady dodges a 4-game bullet

First off, we all know he did it, right?

That said...

Prior to Thursday's ruling, selecting Tom Brady as your starting fantasy QB was essentially a calculated risk. Given that his ADP (average draft position) was hovering around the 8th or 9th round in 10-team leagues, drafting him offered significant upside should his suspension be reduced or eliminated entirely. 

If you took the chance, you're patting yourself on the back today. But don't get too cocky just yet. Before Thursday, Brady was, on average, the tenth QB off the board. In 2014, he finished the season as the tenth-ranked fantasy QB (depending on scoring system). So while he'll get a deserved bump in my rankings (from #10 to #7) when I update them this weekend, keep in mind that Brady hasn't been among the fantasy elites since 2012. 

Perhaps the biggest winners are those who invested a premium pick on TE Rob Gronkowski and a mid-round selection on WR Julian Edelman. They won't be limited by an inexperienced passer taking his lumps at the start of the season.

If you were banking on big things from Jimmy Garoppolo, well, there's always next year…

My first real draft, from the 9 hole

It seemed like it took forever to get here, but I finally had my first real draft last night. It's a 10-team PPR league of buddies scattered around the country, and I ended up with the 9th pick (yuck). Here's what I put together:

Pick 1.9: Matt Forte, RB, Bears -- I was hoping CJ Anderson would fall to me here, but 7 RBs were taken, along with Antonio Brown. I seriously considered grabbing Gronk, but just felt that I would probably be hamstrung at RB the rest of the way if I did. The guy picking 10th took Gronk and Julio. His top RB? Lamar Miller. No bueno.

Pick 2.2: Odell Beckham, Jr., WR, Giants -- You know he's my new fave. No way I'm letting him go if I've got a shot in the 2nd round, even if the Giants offense looks like crap this preseason.

Pick 3.9: Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos -- Wanted Forsett, but he was scooped up at pick 3.4. With all the other premier WRs gone, it was time to invest in the Denver offense.

Pick 4.2: Drew Brees, QB, Saints -- I am a believer in the importance of investing in an elite QB, especially when you can get one this late. Russell Wilson went at 4.1 and Peyton was taken at 4.3. Brees' durability and unparalleled consistently are everything you want in a fantasy QB.

Pick 5.9: Todd Gurley, RB, Rams -- My knees were bouncing as my pick approached and Gurley was sitting at the top of available RBs on the ESPN draft room board. No RB outside the top 4-5 picks has more upside down the stretch, in my humble opinion.

Pick 6.2: Arian Foster, RB, Texans -- The problem with picking at the end of the rounds is that you have to make tradeoffs. There's no way both Foster and Jarvis Landry were going to make it back to me in Round 7. Not with the recent news that Foster could miss just one game. Landry, as expected, went at pick 6.9. I'm loving my team now (Forte probably being my biggest disappointment), but I need a TE.

Pick 7.9: Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles -- Dammit! Jordan Cameron was snatched up at 7.6. My TE plan has been foiled! I'm reeling, and I'm on the clock. Agholor is not a guy I've been targeting, but visions of Chip Kelly's offense going gangbusters this preseason were dancing in my head. Let's see if this rookie can live up to the hype.

Pick 8.2: Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys -- Yeah, still reeling... Had Ameer Abdullah in my sights, but lost him on the swing. Strange that with several Dallas-based guys in this league, nobody had taken Randle; yet he was the top-rated guy on ESPN's board for a couple of rounds now. Oh well; here's goes nothing... (NOTE: A prominent Cowboys offensive lineman stopped by our offices today. I asked him who he thought would be the lead RB. He didn't hesitate: Darren McFadden. "He gets an opening, and he's gone." Of course, he added the caveat, "as long as he's healthy." And yes, this is a true story. And no, I'm not saying which OL, because we were talking privately and I don't know if he wants to go public with that statement.)

Pick 9.9: Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts -- Not a bad fallback at TE, though I'd like him a lot more if Coby Fleener wasn't in the picture. (He'd also require a higher pick in that scenario, of course.) I was targeting Michael Floyd here, but he was taken at 9.7.

Pick 10.2: Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles -- Yeah, I guess I'm drinking the Eagles' Kool-Aid. No real risk here, since I've got Brees. But if Bradford stays upright and keeps up the positive momentum from preseason, I'll be glad he's on my bench and not in an opponent's starting lineup.

Pick 11.9: Broncos D/ST -- The Seahawks were taken at 9.1, and the Texans, Rams, Bills and Pats were all scooped up earlier in this round. The run on defenses was officially on. Time to pull the trigger.

Pick 12.2: Owen Daniels, TE, Broncos -- With Peyton as his QB, you never know... Hopefully one of my TEs will come through for me.

Pick 13.9: Alfred Blue, RB, Texans -- If things don't work out with Arian, I've got his handcuff. To my surprise, someone snatched up Charles Sims at 12.7. Much earlier than his ADP would suggest.

Pick 14.2: Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers -- One of my sleepers. I'll be tempted to flex him in Week 1, but might wait to see just how much Big Ben relies on him in the opener. Interestingly, Martavis Bryant went undrafted. If he's still available after Week 1 or 2, I will grab him.

Pick 15.9: Jonas Gray, RB, Patriots -- Another sleeper with loads of upside. He'll start for the Pats, and for me, in Week 1. If Gray excels in the job, LeGarrette Blount may return to a secondary role.

Pick 16.2: Brandon McManus, K, Broncos -- This may not be the Broncos offense of 2013, but they'll be prolific enough to give their kicker plenty of opportunities.

That's it. Just 16 rounds in this league. As I typically do, I assembled a team that should be solid from the start, but it will really hit its stride come October. If all goes according to plan, I'll have a very good chance to defend my title in this league.